2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[DINGO Joe]

If this pace of 6+ million per day continues up to November 3 then it's entirely possible that more than half of the vote will be cast by then (70-80 million).

Well, if that pace were to keep up, then you're talking 100 million, probably not that high.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If this pace of 6+ million per day continues up to November 3 then it's entirely possible that more than half of the vote will be cast by then (70-80 million).

Well, if that pace were to keep up, then you're talking 100 million, probably not that high.

Obviously I exclude weekends, and election eve where, IIRC, there is no early in-person voting.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1319142996474933252

[DINGO Joe]

If this pace of 6+ million per day continues up to November 3 then it's entirely possible that more than half of the vote will be cast by then (70-80 million).

Well, if that pace were to keep up, then you're talking 100 million, probably not that high.

Obviously I exclude weekends, and election eve where, IIRC, there is no early in-person voting.

Oh, there will definitely be Saturday voting.  Election eve will still have ballots arriving. 

[NOVA Green]

OREGON- 10/21/20 AM UPDATE:

495,082 Ballots Received:    (24.7% of 2016 TOTAL PRES).    
                                         (16.8% of 2020 TOTAL Registered Voters)

I posted the updates from Yesterday AM, but also included some data regarding Total RVs in OR from '16 to '20, so linking below for reference.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7670571#msg7670571

10/21/20 AM Update: Cumulative Raw Total Vote in OR by Partisan Registration



DEMs are already leading PUBs by 168k Votes in only a few days of voting, in a State where HRC won by only 220k Votes.

10/21/20 AM Update: Total Cumulative Vote by Partisan Registration % Chart:



Over 55% of ballots received thus far are Democratic Ballots, with Republicans (21%) trailing even Non-Affiliated / 3rd Party Party Voters (23%).

Total % of Votes Received by Political Party Registration:



26% of OR DEMs have already cast their ballots, versus 14% of Republicans and 10% of "Others".

Wow--- this is pretty crazy EV Turnout, even by Oregon Standards.

Now Here is the Total Daily Ballot Update from 10/20 AM to 10/21 AM by Political Registration:



Damn!   Record day for OR Total Turnout with 215k Votes dumped in one day.

DEMs add another +54k Net Margins, a bit lower than the 10/20 dump with +69k Net Margins.

Now let's look at the daily update as a % of Vote by Political Registration:



Daily sample: (51-25-24    DEM-PUB-OTHER).

What does this mean?

There are still 780k DEM Ballots not yet received and 655k PUB Ballots not yet received.

Meanwhile overall in OR NAV Voters tend to skew much more DEM vs PUB in recent Federal Elections

These numbers do not appear to be good at all for Republicans in Oregon at all, and I am starting to sniff a bit of a down-ballot route coming....

[n1240]

NC 10/20, day 6 early in-person vote:

Dem 84162 (33.9%)
Rep 91231 (36.8%)
Una 72800 (29.3%)
Total 248193

compared to day 5 in 2016

Dem 61720 (42.7%)
Rep 46392 (32.1%)
Una 36438 (25.2%)
Total 144550

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 701095 (40.3%)
Rep 559998 (36.8%)
Una 476666 (27.4%)
Total 1737759

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1038752 (42.8%)
Rep 691114 (28.5%)
Una 698179 (28.8%)
Total 2428045

GOP chips away at the considerable Dem early in-person lead for second straight day, and slightly reduces overall lead (350k to 347k) and Dems hit 1 million votes statewide. Statewide total also surpasses 50% of 2016 total.

[Hnv1]

NC 10/20, day 6 early in-person vote:

Dem 84162 (33.9%)
Rep 91231 (36.8%)
Una 72800 (29.3%)
Total 248193

compared to day 5 in 2016

Dem 61720 (42.7%)
Rep 46392 (32.1%)
Una 36438 (25.2%)
Total 144550

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 701095 (40.3%)
Rep 559998 (36.8%)
Una 476666 (27.4%)
Total 1737759

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1038752 (42.8%)
Rep 691114 (28.5%)
Una 698179 (28.8%)
Total 2428045

GOP chips away at the considerable Dem early in-person lead for second straight day, and slightly reduces overall lead (350k to 347k) and Dems hit 1 million votes statewide. Statewide total also surpasses 50% of 2016 total.

Is this zeal from R voters or simply D voters moved to VbM?

[Landslide Lyndon]

BTW, if high turnout was good for Republicans then they wouldn't try so hard to suppress it.

[wbrocks67]

God this thread is really painful sometimes. People freaking out about Reps outvoting Dems in early in person votes in NC and FL for a single day - how is this surprising? Dems have landed HUGE leads among mail voters, so of course they weren't gonna keep dominating in person early votes too.

Oh god, Dems lead goes from like 475K to 460K in FL - sound the alarm bells~~!!!!!!!!!!

[wbrocks67]

Meanwhile, California is pretty stunning. I feel like we are usually frustrated with Dems b/c they never send their ballots in fast enough and wait till the last minute. Not this year - Dems at 29% return rate while Reps only 19%.

[Adam Griffin]

NC 10/20, day 6 early in-person vote:

Dem 84162 (33.9%)
Rep 91231 (36.8%)
Una 72800 (29.3%)
Total 248193

compared to day 5 in 2016

Dem 61720 (42.7%)
Rep 46392 (32.1%)
Una 36438 (25.2%)
Total 144550

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 701095 (40.3%)
Rep 559998 (36.8%)
Una 476666 (27.4%)
Total 1737759

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1038752 (42.8%)
Rep 691114 (28.5%)
Una 698179 (28.8%)
Total 2428045

GOP chips away at the considerable Dem early in-person lead for second straight day, and slightly reduces overall lead (350k to 347k) and Dems hit 1 million votes statewide. Statewide total also surpasses 50% of 2016 total.

Is this zeal from R voters or simply D voters moved to VbM?

Some meaningful net migration to VBM I'm sure, but keep in mind that NC has ancestrally never lost its Democratic registration advantage. Democrats are currently up by 3.5 percentage points in in-person EV, compared to a 5.5 point registration advantage. The biggest difference from nominal registration figures is that unaffiliated voters are showing at lower rates, padding the percentages for both Ds & Rs (but leaving the net margin relatively unchanged).

Registration, as of 10/17:
D 35.66%
U 33.40%
R 30.18%

On the other hand, it is pretty safe to assume that among registered Ds and Rs who have voted early in-person, there are more actual Republican voters (at least at the federal level) than Democratic voters due to that still-lingering ancestral/Dixiecrat legacy in registration.

[n1240]

NC 10/20, day 6 early in-person vote:

Dem 84162 (33.9%)
Rep 91231 (36.8%)
Una 72800 (29.3%)
Total 248193

compared to day 5 in 2016

Dem 61720 (42.7%)
Rep 46392 (32.1%)
Una 36438 (25.2%)
Total 144550

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 701095 (40.3%)
Rep 559998 (36.8%)
Una 476666 (27.4%)
Total 1737759

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1038752 (42.8%)
Rep 691114 (28.5%)
Una 698179 (28.8%)
Total 2428045

GOP chips away at the considerable Dem early in-person lead for second straight day, and slightly reduces overall lead (350k to 347k) and Dems hit 1 million votes statewide. Statewide total also surpasses 50% of 2016 total.

Is this zeal from R voters or simply D voters moved to VbM?

Early vote values are still much larger than mail vote values (magnitude about 10x more or so), so Dems aren't moving to VBM that significantly, at least in North Carolina, although they're still dominating the mail-in vote there. The amount of voters going early has been steadily going down (excluding weekends) with today being the lowest weekday thus far (292k -> 282k -> 248k this week), so there are both fewer Dem and GOP voters, but the GOP vote isn't decreasing as much as the Dem vote so I wouldn't necessarily consider this zeal from R voters. Could argue Dems have done better at cannibalizing their vote earlier, but it's also plausible to anticipate that there may be another relative surge closer to election day among Dem voters.

[n1240]

NC 10/20, day 6 early in-person vote:

Dem 84162 (33.9%)
Rep 91231 (36.8%)
Una 72800 (29.3%)
Total 248193

compared to day 5 in 2016

Dem 61720 (42.7%)
Rep 46392 (32.1%)
Una 36438 (25.2%)
Total 144550

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 701095 (40.3%)
Rep 559998 (36.8%)
Una 476666 (27.4%)
Total 1737759

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1038752 (42.8%)
Rep 691114 (28.5%)
Una 698179 (28.8%)
Total 2428045

GOP chips away at the considerable Dem early in-person lead for second straight day, and slightly reduces overall lead (350k to 347k) and Dems hit 1 million votes statewide. Statewide total also surpasses 50% of 2016 total.

2016 NC cumulative early vote 13 days before election day

Dem 386676 (47.0%)
Rep 235545 (28.6%)
Una 198490 (24.1%)
Total 822596

Dem vote share at this time was much larger but the raw lead is also smaller (151k vs 347k). Final gap in 2016 was 304k

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Webb County (Laredo) has finally reached 50% of the 2016 vote. They are currently at 28.5k and should pass 30k after today. My personal goal for that county is to get at least 65k total this election, ideally 70k

[Storr]

Webb County (Laredo) has finally reached 50% of the 2016 vote. They are currently at 28.5k and should pass 30k after today. My personal goal for that county is to get at least 65k total this election, ideally 70k

Related, the totals for yesterday from Harris County: https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1319084313082798080?s=20

[indietraveler]

TX is now at 65.5% of 2016. Will be no problem blowing past 75% by the end of the week (if not by the end of Friday).

[wbrocks67]

AZ seems like an under-looked at state too - Dems are still blowing Reps out of the water there.

[Flabuckeye]

AZ seems like an under-looked at state too - Dems are still blowing Reps out of the water there.

Dem lead in the all important Maricopa County is +62,600!   Just have to win there, the rest of the state balances out.

[Gass3268]

AZ seems like an under-looked at state too - Dems are still blowing Reps out of the water there.

Pima County also has a massive ballot processing backlog.

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319279059608588300?s=21

[Flabuckeye]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319279059608588300?s=21

What this fails to show is that Dems are up +85,597 in the same time period for vote by mail
....and still up 462K overall

[The Mikado]

Dallas update:

https://twitter.com/JudgeClayJ/status/1319117999513677824

https://twitter.com/JudgeClayJ/status/1319118866530840582

[Storr]

TX is now at 65.5% of 2016. Will be no problem blowing past 75% by the end of the week (if not by the end of Friday).

Plus, of the four large suburban counties that have been producing absolutely absurd turnout....

*clears throat*

continue to do so:

Collin          80% of 2016
Denton       83% of 2016
Williamson  83% of 2016
Hays           86% of 2016

[xavier110]

AZ seems like an under-looked at state too - Dems are still blowing Reps out of the water there.

Not only that, the I and R registered here will be a weird mix with some pro-Biden / Lincoln Project ish voters. So a D lead doesn’t matter that much - Ds were overwhelmed in ‘18 and still won.

[pantsaregood]

Does someone have a list of the net number of ballots Democrats are gaining over Republicans for each day since early voting began? Including EV and mail.