2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[indietraveler]

Sober reminder that while it's great to see long lines it doesn't necessarily mean anything. It's likely these are the most die hards that vote all the time regardless of circumstance.

What would really be interesting to see, and perhaps a better indication, is how many of these are first-time voters or non-2016 voters.

Obviously the best thing about this is that these votes are now banked. What early voters need to do is make sure they're getting their friends and families to vote and those to participate who normally don't.

[indietraveler]

Sober reminder that while it's great to see long lines it doesn't necessarily mean anything. It's likely these are the most die hards that vote all the time regardless of circumstance.

Guess we oughta shut this discussion down then if it means nothing. Ya'll are just wasting time in discussing this

Not sure if you're being sarcastic or not? But it seems like you know what I said was correct since you just quoted the first portion of my post. If you're being serious, why are you Fox Newsing me here?

[indietraveler]

I wonder how many (if any) counties reach 100% of 2016 turnout before election day.

[indietraveler]

What states are we most surprised and/or impressed by in terms of early turnout?

I'm surprised at South Dakota (seems random) and impressed with Wisconsin.

Yeah, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Virginia, and North Carolina are off the charts.

Virginia is pretty hilarious because it's not even a battleground state this time.  This is just turnout to show hatred and disgust to Trump.  Even I, who despises Trump, would not wait 2 hours in line to do that.

i'd swim naked through a sea of covid to vote against Trump.

great to see these numbers picking up speed.

[indietraveler]

Dems have roughly a 120,000 vote lead in Florida as of now.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

Do independents generally lean a certain way in FL?

[indietraveler]

Excited to see Texas numbers once their early voting starts.

[indietraveler]

Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
·
4m
#earlyvote cast as a percentage of *total* 2016 vote is truly amazing

SD: 22.8%
VA 20.7%
WI: 20.6%
WY: 14.9%
VT: 14% (report from yesterday)
MI: 13.1% (report from yesterday)
ND: 12.1%
NJ: 12.3%
FL: 12.3%
MN: 11.3% (report from last Fri.)

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202

I wonder how high this could be by election day overall. In another week or so these numbers are going to start to explode. While it's hard to make year over year comparisons it seems like the above is a decent measurement if certain key counties get 80-100% of their 2016 total before election day. Given how close the rust belt was in 2016 and knowing that Trump has a high floor, but a low ceiling we could reasonably have a decent idea on election day eve.

My nerves are gone about people not turning out due to covid. And while mail voting is still a question mark considering deadlines I'm starting to feel a little better about that too seeing some of the return rates so far.

[indietraveler]

Taniel
@Taniel
·
1m
31% of all registered voters in WI's Dane Couty (Madison) have now voted.

Elsewhere in Wisconsin: In blue Milwaukee, 20%. In red WOW counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington), 20%/21%/17%. In swing Kenosha, 17%

Dane is Joe's juggernaut. HRC netted 146k votes out of Dane in 2016, Evers netted nearly 151k in 2018. My best guess is Biden easily nets over 200k from Dane, potentially up to 220k. Easily wipes out Trump's 2016 margin (if all other counties voted the same, which they won't)

How likely is that to happen based on Dane's turnout history? I would assume Dane would be a place that has a consistently solid turnout rate relative to other areas of the state (and country).  

[indietraveler]

will we get any data on early voters who are also first time voters in their respective states?

[indietraveler]

Great! I think that's probably the best measurement at this point to try to conclude anything on the final result? The potential for a Biden blowout seems to be there based on the data. Even if he wins some of these states by 1% or so that fact won't be the talking point.

[indietraveler]

So by the end of its first week of early voting it looks like TX could be within striking distance of 50% of 2016 turnout. I wasn't sure what to expect, but it definitely wasn't this.

Chances they exceed 2016 turnout by the end of early voting?

[indietraveler]

TX exceeded 50% of 2016 votes in its first week.

All it needs to do to get to 100% prior to 11/3 is half that for the next two weeks.

[indietraveler]

TX is now at 65.5% of 2016. Will be no problem blowing past 75% by the end of the week (if not by the end of Friday).

[indietraveler]

What's up with some of these states that haven't updated recently? Like Minnesota. Is there going to be an incoming vote dump soon?

[indietraveler]

With some of the delays in reporting will the vote count be at 60M by Monday morning?