2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Flabuckeye]

Florida Dems poised to surpass entire 2016 VBM totals today

Entire Dem Vote By Mail 2016-   1,049,809
Dem Vote 10/15 (19 days left)-  1,043,514

[Flabuckeye]

Republican total VBM in Florida for 2016 was 1,108,053

[Flabuckeye]

There is only one early voting site per county in Ohio.  All of Cleveland to one site. Ridiculous.
Same in Cincy and Columbus. Thank you to Republicans in the governors mansion and controlling the legislature. 

On another front anyone have any intel why Miami Dade’s numbers didn’t move at all today?

[Flabuckeye]

In a normal year Texas wouldn’t start early voting until this week.   So 43.2% turnout in 2020 vs roughly 0% (probably some mail ballots) at this moment in 2016 is amazing!

[Flabuckeye]

Talk about Texas is sexy, however, Dems should really keep their eyes on the prize for a more close in opportunity.

FLORIDA TURNOUT TRACKER
-In 2016, Trump beat Clinton by 112,911

Trump 4,617,886
Clinton 4,504,975

What doesn't get a lot of press is the difference-  Turnout by party
Republicans turned out 81.2% of the 4.577M Rs or 3,716,524 Rs  (860K didn't vote)
Democrats turned out only 74.5% of 4.908M Ds or 3,651,552 Ds (1.256 didn't vote)

Difference in turnout was 75K votes and she lost by 112K

Now looking at the Early Vote 2016
Republicans turnout after EV was 55.7% which then rose on Election Day to 81.2%
Democrats turnout after EV was 53.9% which then rose to only 74.5% on ED

On the eve of In person EV in Florida, where are we with the Mail only era completed?
Republicans have turned out 14.6% of a Final# of registered Rs (Oct 6) of 5.169M
Democrats have turned out 23.1% of a Final# of registered Ds (Oct 6) of 5.303M

Given the likelihood of the Election Day red wave (like happened in 2016), Ds are going to want to be sitting much higher than the 53.9% turnout after all EV.  Probably in the low 60s.

They are starting in a much better position this year after the mail only section running 23.1% vs the 9.9% they had in 2016.  The coming days will give us a much better view if it will be possible to hit better turnout numbers.  I will provide updates.

P.S. also have this at the county level to know which counties are lagging and need to pick up the pace.

[Flabuckeye]

I'm also getting a lot of texts and I'm in California and a non-voter.

I've gotten a text every 2-3 days to phonebank. Either from Biden, Bernie, or County Democrats people

The new generation ground game-
I am texting for both the Biden National Campaign and Florida Democrats.  There are 40,000 of us texters (let alone the people calling, writing post cards etc).  We each send about 600 texts a day, ask questions, see if they will vote early and how.  We mark a questionnaire and then the campaign learns how to address them in the days to come to make sure they show up.  Beats the knocking on doors/waste of time.

[Flabuckeye]

I don't get all the hand ringing about the Dem-Rep difference in Florida nor the phantom 600,000.  This is ALL about Democrats focusing on their own turnout.


Trump beat Clinton in 2016 by 112,911

Republicans turned out 81.2% of the 4.577M Rs or 3,716,524 Rs  (860K didn't vote)
Democrats turned out only 74.5% of 4.908M Ds or 3,651,552 Ds (1.256 didn't vote)
NPAs turned out only 63.3%

Had democrats raised turnout 4 pts to 78.5%-  200,000+ Dem votes
Had democrats raised turnout to the level of Rs 81.2%-   330,000+ Dem votes

Democrats just need to match that of Republican Turnout to win.   This is because NPAs will likely fall their way, they did in 2016 and probably will win them higher in 2020.  Dems should hope NPAs increase their turnout as well

Current Turnout State
Dems at 31.5% on pace to blow away the 53.9% turnout at end of Early Voting 2016
Reps at 23.1% on way to try to match 55.7 turnout at end of Early Voting 2016
NPAs at 18.3% well on way to match 41.0% turnout at end of Early Voting 2016

[Flabuckeye]

Florida numbers in (with Miami Dade)

Republicans up 41,039 in In person early
Democrats up 527,836 in Mail   (was 482,504 yesterday)

Net Democrats up 486,797....   increase of 8,105 over yesterday

[Flabuckeye]

Wow, Dems are killing it in AZ!  

Already 40.4% Dem turnout in Maricopa (Rs at 29.5%)
and 49.4% Dem TO in Pima (Rs at 32.9%)

Dems up statewide 125,940

See Sam Almy twitter (I'm a newbie and can't link)

[Flabuckeye]

AZ seems like an under-looked at state too - Dems are still blowing Reps out of the water there.

Dem lead in the all important Maricopa County is +62,600!   Just have to win there, the rest of the state balances out.

[Flabuckeye]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319279059608588300?s=21

What this fails to show is that Dems are up +85,597 in the same time period for vote by mail
....and still up 462K overall

[Flabuckeye]

Turnout among heavy D Counties in Florida
For perspective, after early voting in 2016 Dem turnout (as a function of every registered D) was the following by county at that point

Miami Dade-58.6%
Broward-58.4%
PBC-  48.4%

As of early this morning, with 10 days to go they were at:
Miami Dade-31.1%
Broward-35.6%
PBC-  40.5%

Chugging along....Palm Beach really doing well

[Flabuckeye]

Democratic turnout in Florida now at 39.2% of registered Democrats.  Considering there's 12 days to go I think that's a pretty good number.

What was the turn out % of democrats in 2016?

Good question.  I think someone posted something that showed a little under 80% at one point but I don't remember exactly.

Yes, this was 53.9% after early vote and 74.4% Total
Repubs were 55.7% after early vote and  81.2% Total, thus the Hillary loss

[Flabuckeye]

Democratic turnout in Florida now at 39.2% of registered Democrats.  Considering there's 12 days to go I think that's a pretty good number.

What was the turn out % of democrats in 2016?

Good question.  I think someone posted something that showed a little under 80% at one point but I don't remember exactly.

Yes, this was 53.9% after early vote and 74.4% Total
Repubs were 55.7% after early vote and  81.2% Total, thus the Hillary loss

Wow, 74.4% was even lower than I thought.  I mean that tells you everything right there...  Democrats just need to keep up with Republicans not outperform them, though they might this year.

People freaking out about Republican turnout should look at the above and keep in mind that Dems are closing in on 40%.

Yes, just hold serve vs are on turnout and let NPAs assist.  The more NPAs the better, they only turned out at 63.3% last time in TOTAL

[Flabuckeye]

We need to stop obsessing over some arbitrary Dem-Rep difference number for Florida.  All about Turnout.  Only 74.5% of Dems showed up in 2016 vs 81.2% of Repubs....that was the ballgame.

Here is where we are after this morning's update from the Florida SOS.

This chart provides Turnout to date by Party, where they were at the end of all EV in 2016 and what the Final Turnout numbers were.   Dems are way ahead of where they were last time with 10 days of EV left.

[Flabuckeye]

We need to stop obsessing over some arbitrary Dem-Rep difference number for Florida.  All about Turnout.  Only 74.5% of Dems showed up in 2016 vs 81.2% of Repubs....that was the ballgame.

Here is where we are after this morning's update from the Florida SOS.

This chart provides Turnout to date by Party, where they were at the end of all EV in 2016 and what the Final Turnout numbers were.   Dems are way ahead of where they were last time with 10 days of EV left.

Looking more closely on how the counties are doing on Dem turnout compared to their final 2016 EV turnout.  Not bad!  Each rising about 3-4% a day, with 10 days left!   I have included the largest counties and then grouped Mid-Size Counties and Small Counties



Don't underestimate how well Dems are doing in Mid-size Counties and the bellweather Pinellas County

[Flabuckeye]

We need to stop obsessing over some arbitrary Dem-Rep difference number for Florida.  All about Turnout.  Only 74.5% of Dems showed up in 2016 vs 81.2% of Repubs....that was the ballgame.

Here is where we are after this morning's update from the Florida SOS.

This chart provides Turnout to date by Party, where they were at the end of all EV in 2016 and what the Final Turnout numbers were.   Dems are way ahead of where they were last time with 10 days of EV left.

We need a tracker like this updated daily if possible!  Wonderful and useful image!

Will do, after each morning when the Florida DOE updates (before 9am)
I will also give updates on how the key big counties are doing.

[Flabuckeye]

Do we know anything about results for the Bloomberg felon voter drive?

I read somewhere where it netted 67,000.  Hundreds of thousands more weren't able to pay their fees or even figure out what they owed.