Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's important to note that Russia has really no type of direct supply line to Transnistria at all. They did in the 90s back when Ukraine was pro-Russia but when that changed they had to resort to getting supplies there via commercial shipment, and the Russian soldiers literally get there by taking commercial flights to Chisinau and being transported in civilian trucks.

If Ukraine and Moldova launched a joint strike at it, it would probably fold about as quickly as Russia was expecting Kyiv to. The Transnistrian "military" is probably less powerful in military strength than some Mexican drug cartels. The Russian soldiers there, well I guess it comes down to if they surrender immediately or not. They don't have much reason not to honestly. It's not a place Russia wants to pick a fight as well.

[BlueSwan]

Highest point in Moldova is 430 meters above sea level. Yeah, hardly mountainous.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Whoever said its mountainous is probably confusing it with Romania which has a reputation as mountainous because of the Carpathians. Although they still make up a minority of the country's area and most of the population doesn't live there at all. Bucharest is in a region that's about as flat as Illinois.

[Adam Griffin]

Moldova may not be "mountainous" per se but it has more variable terrain than most of Ukraine. It is adjacent to the Carpathians, and while you're not dealing with huge peaks and the like, you can easily find variations of several hundred meters over a small linear distance; rivers, valleys and hills; etc.

Case in point (overlay the 2 if needed): image 1  image 2

Easily navigable in the grand scheme of things, but still rougher than pretty much anywhere outside of the broader Lyiv metro of Ukraine.

[Woody]

https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1519104722845720576?cxt=HHwWgICz3cz...

[Woody]

From the Armed Forces of Ukraine:

https://t.me/lumsrc/1466

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: In the Izyum direction, Russian troops captured the outskirts of the settlement of Velyka Komyshuvakha, took control of the Zavody and conducted offensive operations in the direction of Barvinkovo

[Badger]

Let us appreciate the clearly audible "blyat" when the statue's head falls off.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1518963967103803393?s=20&t=N4tw-V...

https://twitter.com/Kateryna_Kruk/status/1518937767849431040?s=20&t=N4tw-V0T...

More of a "clunk " IMO.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1518851658700234753

The German "Gepard" tanks intended for export to Ukraine face the same problem as the "Marder": Their ammunition is produced in Switzerland and Switzerland refuses to play ball.

https://twitter.com/juliacreinhart/status/1519030514853814279


This launched a search for an alternate source of ammunation, including Brazil which still uses the "Gepard" in their own army.

https://twitter.com/VStancik/status/1519006306505564160

Can anyone more knowledgeable about European and swiss politics explain to me why a basically mercenary arms dealer like Switzerland is now refusing to provide ammo to Ukraine?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1518851658700234753

The German "Gepard" tanks intended for export to Ukraine face the same problem as the "Marder": Their ammunition is produced in Switzerland and Switzerland refuses to play ball.

https://twitter.com/juliacreinhart/status/1519030514853814279

This launched a search for an alternate source of ammunation, including Brazil which still uses the "Gepard" in their own army.

https://twitter.com/VStancik/status/1519006306505564160

Can anyone more knowledgeable about European and swiss politics explain to me why a basically mercenary arms dealer like Switzerland is now refusing to provide ammo to Ukraine?

Not sure how much of an expert I could consider myself in this specific case, but it's true that the Swiss have a (well-known) history of neutrality. Gonna go on a limb here and guess that they see it as basically, if they aren't arming Russia (and Russia has its own ammunition industry), they shouldn't be arming Ukraine either.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg reports that 4 European countries already started to pay for Russian gas in RUB.  Not clear which 4.  It is clear Poland and Bulgaria are not among them since they had their gas cut off already.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Transnistria has an airstrip. The safe, legal route to this (for Russia) is cumbersome because of the closed EU airspace and the risk of getting shot down over Odessa. This means it’s unlikely to play more than a supporting role in any Russian offensive, but the occupied territory isn’t besieged.

[jaichind]

More info from Bloomberg: Ten European gas companies have opened the accounts at Gazprombank needed to meet Russia’s demand to pay in RUB and 4 have already made payments, according to a source close to Russia gas giant Gazprom. Poland, Bulgaria have already refused. 

I think a bunch of existing contracts will end in mid-May to end of May and that is when Putin will turn out the screws on the new contract about payment in RUB.  In the meantime, payments are made Gazprombank in EUR/USA who will convert them to RUB working with other Russian banks.

The issue here is outside of Gazprombank these other Russian banks are sanctioned.

So Putin wants European countries to break the sanctions to have them work with these other Russian banks to get RUB to pay Gazprombank.   This has been rejected by most European countries as breaking the sanctions on these Russian banks.  So the compromise is for them to pay Gazprombank in USD/EUR which then within microseconds connects with these other Russian banks to swap these USD/EUR into RUB.   Again, truly a battle of technicalities

[jaichind]

If Russia cuts off gas to Poland due to its refusal to work with Russia on payment in RUB plan I wonder if Poland will just steal the gas as a transit state like Ukraine has done on and off since 2004.  Bulgaria is not a transit state and will be out of luck.

[Woody]

Source: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-26

Russian forces have adopted a sounder pattern of operational movement in eastern Ukraine, at least along the line from Izyum to Rubizhne. Russian troops are pushing down multiple roughly parallel roads within supporting distance of one another, allowing them to bring more combat power to bear than their previous practice had supported. Russian troops on this line are making better progress than any other Russian advances in this phase of the war. They are pushing from Izyum southwest toward Barvinkove and southeast toward Slovyansk. They are also pushing several columns west and south of Rubizhne, likely intending to encircle it and complete its capture. The Russian advances even in this area are proceeding methodically rather than rapidly, however, and it is not clear how far they will be able to drive or whether they will be able to encircle Ukrainian forces in large numbers.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Bloomberg reports that 4 European countries already started to pay for Russian gas in RUB.  Not clear which 4.  It is clear Poland and Bulgaria are not among them since they had their gas cut off already.

I’d be interested to know:

- Whether these 4 are on the unfriendly countries list, as is likely (because these are the ones being pressured to pay in rumbles, although other countries might choose to do so of their own accord)

- Whether these countries have imposed sanctions on Russia and/or are part of the EU sanctions regime. Several have ended up on the “unfriendly countries” list without meeting those criteria (e.g. Albania, North Macedonia)

[jaichind]

This whole paying in RUB workaround reminds me of Pachinko in Japan.

Japanese government: Gambling in illegal

Pachinko parlor: You go in, and pay for a bunch of steel balls which you use to play Pachinko, and increase the number of steel balls if you do well.  Then afterward you go to a discrete room in the building next door where they buy these steel balls from you.   

I observed this de facto gambling firsthand years back.

[CumbrianLefty]

Seems like Russia is trying out its blackmailing powers on one of the "weaker" NATO/EU members. When are those dumb assholes gonna learn that choosing escalation simply means that things are gonna escalate (for them too).


https://mobile.twitter.com/biannagolodryga/status/1519014631930580992

Well, seems like Bulgaria is on the menu too...


https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1519035732211417090


Kind of obvious that they're apparently trying not to mess with Germany, Italy, or France (bigger receivers of Russian gas than either Poland or Bulgaria) at this point, even though their present course of escalation might just as well make a general gas embargo more likely.

Also a bit dumb to lash out at Bulgaria of all places, considering it's still one of the most pro-Russian countries in the EU after Hungary.

Bulgaria in the Warsaw Pact era was always the most Soviet friendly regime. Bulgaria and Russians are both Slavs and Bulgaria even wanted to join the USSR back in the 1970s. There was no big protests or rebellions against the Bulgarian communist government.

That's not actually true, though I don't want to get dragged too far off topic.

[jaichind]

I am pretty sure the end result will be

a) Some European states will de facto pay for Russian gas in RUB
b) Other European states will refuse
c) The states in a) will just buy more gas from Russia and re-sell it to those states in b) who can keep their honor intact.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Uh oh

https://mobile.twitter.com/patport55377808/status/1519267807053111298

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/StratcomCentre/status/1519269527686627330

[Woody]

[Hindsight was 2020]

Sorry mixed up Moldova terrain with Romania terrain. Still point stands that Russia will still can’t just take it over in the blink of an eye

[dead0man]

some Russian mothers drink the kompot from their handlers, others not so much

[jaichind]

Bloomberg: Germany is prepared to back a gradual ban on Russian oil as European Union countries scramble to respond to an escalating energy crisis that saw Moscow cut off gas supplies to two of the bloc’s member states on Wednesday. 

[Omega21]

If the Pidyomnyy bridge (name in the tweet is wrong) is destroyed, it means there are no more direct connections from Romania to Odessa.

https://twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1519187123903111169