Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1518083594882846722

[Storr]

The latest excuse for this from Russian twitter accounts I've seen is that anything within 6.5km of a military base is liable to be hit during missile strikes, because 6.5km is the missile's margin of error.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1518124555864313856?s=20&t=pM0-tz4C7...

[NewYorkExpress]

Antony Blinken and Lloyd Austin are going to Kyiv to meet with Zelenskiy

Anyone want to take bets on whether Putin tries to have them killed?

[CumbrianLefty]

The New Nuclear Reality.

Not the best written article (written by the way by the daughter of my tax professor in Law School whom I adored - what a wonderful man), but it makes for depressing reading. I am concerned for you all that are not as near to death's door as I. It is so sad really. No matter how educated we get, no matter how marvelous our technology, we are nevertheless a very flawed species that needs rewiring, least it blows up the planet.

The thing is, is that Russia is a declining power. It's only claim to "greatness" now is nukes. And one cannot submit to nuclear blackmail. That in itself would be curtains. You submit once, and it's game over. So the nukes in that sense are unusable - unless the guy with the finger on the button from his perspective, thinks the options available to him other than using nukes are all worse. And therein lies the problem. And even if Putin exits the stage without the unleashing of nukes, more Putin's will appear in due time in similar circumstances to replace him on the stage. And over time, nukes will get ever better and deadlier than ever.


Have a great evening.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-new-nuclear-reality

Well one possible silver lining from this is that serious moves towards nuclear disarmament could be a thing again. Putin might not be interested, but who knows his successor might be.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1517918177887498244
👀

Mobilisation is probably a smaller political risk than abandoning the war after the Donbas offensive, if Putin thinks he can win the whole of Ukraine with mobilisation.

The easiest thing politically would be to do neither. I full expect Putin to just keep declaring everything is going to plan even after all his forces are spent.

That would lose him the war, which risks a coup. He can blatantly lie to the civvies, but he needs stronger copium for his generals and internal security forces.

He either declares it a win after the Donbas, or pulls out more stops to win a wider war. This probably means mobilisation - the increasingly nationalist rhetoric is building up to something, after all.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Europe accepting to pay for Russian gas in roubles? Boris Johnson saying Russia could win the war? German intellectuals writing open letters suggesting Ukraine should surrender? But I thought Europe was united for Ukraine? lol

3) The German intellectuals claiming that Ukraine should surrender are old and increasingly marginalized figures of the 68 generation. They, at best, represent an idealist faction within the SPD. They don't even represent German industrialists who might want to resume business with Russia. Astonishingly, the German party that's the most hawkish on Russia is...the Green Party.

To be honest, this is the first time I heard of such letters so I don't really know what Red Velvet is talking about here. If he has further information about these letters I would like to have it, so that I know who these people are... probably not a really relevant phenomenon though considering that I was unaware of it.

I know that there is a split within the German peace movement between a (probably larger) anti-military aid and a (probably smaller) pro-military aid faction as well as a split between that anti-military aid faction and the Green party, leading to Vice-chancellor Robert Habeck from the Greens recently declaring that pacifism is not an option right now and that peace protestors ought to protest against Putin.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1517918177887498244
👀

Mobilisation is probably a smaller political risk than abandoning the war after the Donbas offensive, if Putin thinks he can win the whole of Ukraine with mobilisation.

The easiest thing politically would be to do neither. I full expect Putin to just keep declaring everything is going to plan even after all his forces are spent.

That would lose him the war, which risks a coup. He can blatantly lie to the civvies, but he needs stronger copium for his generals and internal security forces.

He either declares it a win after the Donbas, or pulls out more stops to win a wider war. This probably means mobilisation - the increasingly nationalist rhetoric is building up to something, after all.

And if (when?) mobilising mostly ill-trained and low morale conscripts doesn't win the war, what then?

[DavidB.]

Heart-breaking article focusing on children who had to flee Ukraine - together with their favorite toys - and their stories. Thought I'd share - Google Translate should work well.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/reliance-buys-at-least-15-million-barrels-of-russian-oil-report/articleshow/91002456.cms

"Reliance buys at least 15 million barrels of Russian oil: Report"

It seems India has significantly increased its import of Russian energy recently based on the large discounts.  Still, it is less than what one would expect given the economic bonanza India has been given by Russia.

I think the reason why is the square dancing problem of switching partners.  If there is going to be a final break between Russia and Europe then the world energy market will be split into two with one zone that will not trade with Russia (with higher energy prices) and another zone that will trade with Russia (and have lower energy prices.)  But India cannot be sure that this world would actually come to pass and India risks angering its long term suppliers in the Middle East if they dump them for Russia only for a Russia-Europe energy rapprochement to take place later and Russia shifts their energy trade back to Europe given the lower transit costs.  By similar logic, there also seems to be reluctance by the Middle East suppliers to dump India to shift and shift their supplies to Europe on a large scale for the higher prices there for fear of angering India in the long term if a Russia-Europe energy rapprochement were to take place.

So I guess for India and the Middle East to completely shift who they sell to and buy from they have to be convince the Russia-Europe break is final.  It seems they are not convinced yet.
 

[Torie]

The latest excuse for this from Russian twitter accounts I've seen is that anything within 6.5km of a military base is liable to be hit during missile strikes, because 6.5km is the missile's margin of error.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1518124555864313856?s=20&t=pM0-tz4C7...

That must be why Russia is not doing well. They can't hit anything of military value until the 500th try, and there is only so much ordinance available. These twitter accounts are for the "benefit" of whom exactly? The gullible with IQ's of 80?

[Torie]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1517787243984924673
https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1517788123010420736
This is another big problem for the Russians in the battle of Donbas. Not only have they only seen marginal gains around the edges but they are seeing these gains while suffering a causality rate that is not sustainable. They won’t be able to pull off any successfully encirclement of Ukraine while losing 400-500 men per day not to mention all the equipment lost as well

How does guy know all this again?

[jaichind]

Are these sources for Russian loss able to break them out by Russian Federal armed forces and LPR/DPR militias?   My understanding is that LPR/DPR militias are large numerically but not effective on a man-by-man basis so LDR/DPR militia taking a lot of manpower losses would not be a surprise since their military value was always dubious and I suspect is being used by the Russians to take hits so they do not have to.

[Person Man]

Are these sources for Russian loss able to break them out by Russian Federal armed forces and LPR/DPR militias?   My understanding is that LPR/DPR militias are large numerically but not effective on a man-by-man basis so LDR/DPR militia taking a lot of manpower losses would not be a surprise since their military value was always dubious and I suspect is being used by the Russians to take hits so they do not have to.

I’ve been hearing that the militias have been mostly operating in a support role.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Europe accepting to pay for Russian gas in roubles? Boris Johnson saying Russia could win the war? German intellectuals writing open letters suggesting Ukraine should surrender? But I thought Europe was united for Ukraine? lol

3) The German intellectuals claiming that Ukraine should surrender are old and increasingly marginalized figures of the 68 generation. They, at best, represent an idealist faction within the SPD. They don't even represent German industrialists who might want to resume business with Russia. Astonishingly, the German party that's the most hawkish on Russia is...the Green Party.

To be honest, this is the first time I heard of such letters so I don't really know what Red Velvet is talking about here. If he has further information about these letters I would like to have it, so that I know who these people are... probably not a really relevant phenomenon though considering that I was unaware of it.

I know that there is a split within the German peace movement between a (probably larger) anti-military aid and a (probably smaller) pro-military aid faction as well as a split between that anti-military aid faction and the Green party, leading to Vice-chancellor Robert Habeck from the Greens recently declaring that pacifism is not an option right now and that peace protestors ought to protest against Putin.

I think I found the open letter Red Velvet mentioned earlier: https://www.blog-der-republik.de/offener-brief-an-bundeskanzler-olaf-scholz-gegen-weitere-waffenlieferungen-an-die-ukraine-deeskalation-jetzt/

It doesn't - no surprise - contain an explicit call for Ukraine to surrender though. Instead it advocates a stop of German arms deliveries to Ukraine and a negotiated cease-fire that could then include Ukrainian neutrality, recognition of Crimea as Russian, and a referendum over the status of the two Donbas republics.

The 18 signees of the letter seem to come primarily - again no suprise - from the surroundings of the Left Party and the aforementioned peace movement, including former Left Party presidential candidate Luc Jochimsen and former Left Party Bundestag deputy Norman Paech. There are also the names of a retired Green politician and a retired SPD politician (whose name was up until now unknown to me tbh) on it.



In other news, the FDP had a party convention yesterday and passed a resolution caling for the delivery of heavy weapons to Ukraine. This means that two of the three governing parties (FDP and Greens) in Germany support sending heavy weapons to Ukraine, while one - albeit the biggest of the three - still opposes it (SPD).

https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/1517811520394219521

(Christian Lindner has Corona at the moment, this is why - or at least that's the general assumption - his face is so red in the picture. )



And in yet other news, following the recent purchase of F-35s, Eurofighters, and Heron UCAVs, the German military is getting also 60 Chinook helicopters now.

https://twitter.com/VincentLamigeon/status/1518141879312920577

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eu-says-gas-payments-may-be-possible-under-russian-roubles-proposal-without-2022-04-22/

"EU sees way to pay for Russian gas without breaching sanctions"

It seems EU ok's Russia compromise of EU companies paying USD or EUR for Russian gas and Gazprombank immediately converting it to RUB.  This entire affair is a battle of technicalities.  In the end, the fact remains that Russia will continue to export gas and get paid for it while giving Putin some face-saving "victory".  In the meantime RUb surges to 76 which is early Jan 2022 levels.

Europe accepting to pay for Russian gas in roubles? Boris Johnson saying Russia could win the war? German intellectuals writing open letters suggesting Ukraine should surrender? But I thought Europe was united for Ukraine? lol

And people who called out the European hypocrisy (from both sides, from the ones asking them to do more to help and the people against the sanctions on Russia) were criticized for pointing the elephant on the room.

The economy vs national security debate is the key to understand the start of this new global order. Easy to push for intense structural de-globalization in rhetoric only but not really do it when you know you’re among the places which most rely on the economic benefits of said globalization and would be among the more affected places if a reversal trend were to start.

That explains the positions of places like Germany who want the war to end for a quick return for business as usual logic, one friendly to their wallets. That’s not going to happen and they will eventually have to be honest about what they care more about: Globalization or Ukraine.

Do you have anything to contribute to this thread beyond preening concern-trolling about muh European hypocrisy and argumentum ad populum fallacies to justify your country's disgusting "neutral" stance toward Russia's genocide? This is getting pathetic.

[Woody]

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eu-says-gas-payments-may-be-possible-under-russian-roubles-proposal-without-2022-04-22/

"EU sees way to pay for Russian gas without breaching sanctions"

It seems EU ok's Russia compromise of EU companies paying USD or EUR for Russian gas and Gazprombank immediately converting it to RUB.  This entire affair is a battle of technicalities.  In the end, the fact remains that Russia will continue to export gas and get paid for it while giving Putin some face-saving "victory".  In the meantime RUb surges to 76 which is early Jan 2022 levels.

Europe accepting to pay for Russian gas in roubles? Boris Johnson saying Russia could win the war? German intellectuals writing open letters suggesting Ukraine should surrender? But I thought Europe was united for Ukraine? lol

And people who called out the European hypocrisy (from both sides, from the ones asking them to do more to help and the people against the sanctions on Russia) were criticized for pointing the elephant on the room.

The economy vs national security debate is the key to understand the start of this new global order. Easy to push for intense structural de-globalization in rhetoric only but not really do it when you know you’re among the places which most rely on the economic benefits of said globalization and would be among the more affected places if a reversal trend were to start.

That explains the positions of places like Germany who want the war to end for a quick return for business as usual logic, one friendly to their wallets. That’s not going to happen and they will eventually have to be honest about what they care more about: Globalization or Ukraine.

Do you have anything to contribute to this thread beyond preening concern-trolling about muh European hypocrisy and argumentum ad populum fallacies to justify your country's disgusting "neutral" stance toward Russia's genocide? This is getting pathetic.

Have you anything to contribute to this thread beyond hectoring people for not having an opinion in line with your own?

Brazil, and Brazilians, have sovereignty, and clearly prize that. And there are concerns that are at play from a Brazilian POV, that should not be completely shoffed at.

And it's also true that what's being done re: sanctions are in fact deglobalizing the world. They make sense as a short-term tool to weaken Russia's hand, but they come at a terrible strategic cost in the long term if they continue indefinitely. If Russia gets used to sanctions (to some extent, they already are), then our bargaining chips will only diminish and our leverage over them will only weaken.

SWIFT, like many other things, can be regarded as an international institution on which we all rely; cutting Russia from it is not without downsides, as it only encourages the creation of autarkic spheres that rely on themselves, not on international institutions that we, in fact, have the strongest influence over. We could be harming the very international world order we are trying to save. It might be an impossible choice to avoid, but it's still a choice we are making.

And history tells us that the integration of economies, as we see in the modern age, does tend to result in higher standards of living on average. These higher standards of living, in fact, are important if we want a Europe that can afford to flex its muscles. More tax dollars from commerce means more money that can be spent on defense, in fact, implicitly, more money that can be spent defending against Russia should worse come to worse.

This war is about more than just Ukraine, and his conclusion is far from wrong in the gist of it. The de-globalization that is being promoted, indirectly, is not going to just harm Russia, it will hurt Europe too. Severing Russia from Europe in the commercial sphere is good for America, but it's probably not good for Europe. Fortunately, I doubt European leaders will let it go that far.

[Torie]

I was wondering if there was any hope that I could distinguish Ukrainian from Russian. Suffice it to say, I think it will be an uphill struggle. I most definitely do not have "the gift" when it comes to linguistics and languages - at all. The best I can do is that it seems the Russian requires you to work your mouth more, sort of like German versus English. If interested in a quick tour de horizon of all of this, from a very nice sounding guy himself, who also compares as asides Spanish versus Italian versus Catalan and so forth, here is a link to a video. In one spot you can listen to Zelensky speaking one language and then the other. He also lists in percentage terms using some technical linguistic term, how similar Ukrainian is to other Slavic languages. Suffice it to say, Russian is not the "most similar" of the Slavic family to Ukrainian.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I-8pXalgGI

[jaichind]

I was wondering if there was any hope that I could distinguish Ukrainian from Russian. Suffice it to say, I think it will be an uphill struggle. I most definitely do not have "the gift" when it comes to linguistics and languages - at all. The best I can do is that it seems the Russian requires you to work your mouth more, sort of like German versus English. If interested in a quick tour de horizon of all of this, from a very nice sounding guy himself, who also compares as asides Spanish versus Italian versus Catalan and so forth, here is a link to a video. In one spot you can listen to Zelensky speaking one language and then the other. He also lists in percentage terms using some technical linguistic term, how similar Ukrainian is to other Slavic languages. Suffice it to say, Russian is not the "most similar" of the Slavic family to Ukrainian.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I-8pXalgGI

Old USSR police rubric on how to ID criminals by ethnic group

[jaichind]

https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/russian-forces-hit-logistics-terminal-of-foreign-weapons-near-odessa-122042400074_1.html

"Russian forces hit logistics terminal of foreign weapons near Odessa"

Russia claims to have destroyed a logistics terminal in Odessa which had a bunch of foreign weapons in transit.  If true it does show a good amount of foreign weapons into Ukraine are seabound versus overland.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/russian-forces-hit-logistics-terminal-of-foreign-weapons-near-odessa-122042400074_1.html

"Russian forces hit logistics terminal of foreign weapons near Odessa"

Russia claims to have destroyed a logistics terminal in Odessa which had a bunch of foreign weapons in transit.  If true it does show a good amount of foreign weapons into Ukraine are seabound versus overland.

Big L for Ukraine if its capability to fight is impacted by Russian actions like this (assuming this is true, of course).

[Person Man]

https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/russian-forces-hit-logistics-terminal-of-foreign-weapons-near-odessa-122042400074_1.html

"Russian forces hit logistics terminal of foreign weapons near Odessa"

Russia claims to have destroyed a logistics terminal in Odessa which had a bunch of foreign weapons in transit.  If true it does show a good amount of foreign weapons into Ukraine are seabound versus overland.

Big L for Ukraine if its capability to fight is impacted by Russian actions like this (assuming this is true, of course).

That could be the next escalation: shipping convoys.

[NOVA Green]

The WP had an interesting article yesterday on the role of Belarusian railroad workers, hackers, and dissident security forces who effectively sabotaged Russian troop and military support movements on the Northern Front.

Starting in the earliest days of the invasion in February, a clandestine network of railway workers, hackers and dissident security forces went into action to disable or disrupt the railway links connecting Russia to Ukraine through Belarus, wreaking havoc on Russian supply lines.

The attacks were simple but effective, targeting the signal control cabinets essential to the functioning of the railways, members of the activist network said. For days on end, the movement of trains was paralyzed, forcing the Russians to attempt to resupply their troops by road and contributing to the snarl-up that stalled the infamous 40-mile military convoy north of Kyiv.

How much of the chaos can be attributed to the sabotage and how much to poor logistical planning by the Russians is hard to tell, especially as there is no independent media reporting from Belarus, said Emily Ferris, a research fellow at the London-based Royal United Services Institute. But without automated signaling, trains were forced to slow to a crawl and the number of them traveling on the tracks at any one time would have been severely restricted, she said.

“Given the Russian reliance on trains, I’m sure it contributed to some of the problems they had in the north. It would have slowed down their ability to move,” she said. “They couldn’t push further into Ukrainian territory and snarled their supply lines because they had to rely on trucks.”

The saboteurs drew inspiration from an earlier episode in Belarusian history, during World War II, when Belarusians opposed to the Nazi occupation blew up railway lines and train stations to disrupt German supply lines. The Rail War, as it is known, is venerated as a moment of triumph for Belarus, taught in schools as the most successful of the tactics deployed by resistance fighters that eased the way for Soviet troops to drive the Germans out.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/23/ukraine-belarus-railway-saboteurs-russia/

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1518261789108097024

[Woody]

South of Lysychansk, Russian and so called "LPR" forces have entered Novotoshkivske

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1518279245264531456

Russians are now finally assaulting Lyman, but so far Ukrainians are holding their ground.

Source: https://t.me/hromadske_ua/20715