UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[TheTide]

I started following politics seriously in about 2008 - the year of the Glasgow East by-election and the year after Labour lost a national election in Scotland for the first time in around half a century. Between then and now Scottish Labour have suffered almost persistent misery, so this is somewhat bizarre for me.

The next voting intention polls for Westminster (and to a lesser extent Holyrood) will be interesting. I get the feeling that a lot of left-wing and anti-Tory Scottish voters assumed even 24 hours ago that Scottish Labour was a secondary party and its days of dominance were permanently over. This perception may have dramatically burst following this result.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The 'big' by election successes we've already seen in England don't manifest solely based on the swing in average national polling. They are exceptional. That's the point.

I'm not sure this is quite right. It's true for the Lib Dems, but for Labour the big significant positive results have been pretty much entirely in line with the national polling.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

As posted elsewhere;

I had no idea this thread had been locked. It shouldn't have been. I was half asleep at the time it looks like it was locked. I was closing down a lot of screens, so if it was me, it was genuinely unintentional.

I came on this morning after waking up looking for reactions and didn't see anything after the wee small hours. Then tried to post and the system was telling me it was locked.

So apologies for discussion being inhibited.

I'll share my take on the result a bit later.

As OP of this thread I think there was a high chance I may have accidentally locked it while checking the results late last night, apologies to everybody here if that was the case.

[oldtimer]

Bloody hell. What a result. I was vaguely expecting a Labour win, but not by this much.

SNP and Conservatives go hand in hand these past 20 years.

They are part of the nationalist wave in the UK, which is currently receding.

[CumbrianLefty]

Not just that, but their relationship is somewhat symbiotic.

(as can also be seen in Spain, and indeed other places)

In many ways, it has to be admitted, Scottish Labour had it coming. But what we have seen since the big Nat breakthrough in 2011 is their adopting many of SL's former bad habits rather more quickly. And the electoral tsunami that was 2015 gave them a sense of invincibility that even their largely self inflicted scare two years later didn't really do much to shake off.

Some saw the 2021 Holyrood election as confirming Labour's irrelevance north of the border - but in retrospect its real significance may have been their support finally bottoming out after a full decade of relentless decline. The fact that Sarwar's ratings were constantly high even before the SNP crash, too.

Real politics has returned to Scotland again, and its good

[Blair]

I heard on the THIGMOO grapevine that there were a lot more SNP voters switching than people expected- not out of love for labour but because of a dislike for the SNP- and well tbf there are at least 3-4 different ideological reasons you can have for defections at the moment.

It was telling that the SNP briefed at 10 that they had lost- I don’t think any recent semi competitive by election has seen that.

It was funny that the ‘online line’ appears to be ‘well labour won because of Tories’ ‘labour have no policies’ and ‘it’s the unionist press’- this type of delusional thinking does not help parties who are doing badly and serious people in the SNP rather than keyboard warriors know the issues and what the SNP need to do.

I guess the only saving grace is this is a seat that Labour won in 2017 and it’s the type of seat Labour would have won even if it only won 3-4 in Scotland.

[Oryxslayer]

Everyone has already added their own fine takes, so I don't think that much needs to be said. One additional point of comparison tight now between the SNP and the Tories is that both seemingly have and aura of "unaccountability."

In the case of the Tories, they are secretly in full acceptance mode that they will lose big, and there is nothing they can do to stop it.  Therefore many see now as to time for doing all the unpopular dogmatic stuff not normally viable, since everyone who would hypothetically hate said action is already expected to go Labour.  Which is how they end up with a party congress that barely touched cost of living issues in a cost of living crisis. It's de facto the longest lame duck government that will ever exist.

The SNP meanwhile are not in a position as awful as the Tories,  but they could get there. The issues they face are internal,  and born of the party culture.  Taking the hard steps and cutting off the offenders,  rather than claiming a witch hunt, would probably halt any further decline. Claiming nothing is wrong creates the unaccountable atmosphere,  since the average person has zero impact on internal SNP machinations.  But I have no faith the SNP could do this, perhaps because they fear a true hollyrood split.

[YL]

How big an effect do people feel the cause of the by-election had?

Personally I tend to think that the effects of such things on results can get exaggerated: voters can be quite forgiving of parties when their previous incumbent had found their way into the MPs Behaving Badly file (as Andrew Teale calls it) and on the other hand voters can still punish an incumbent party after a death (see Chesham & Amersham). But that does not mean that causes don’t have some effect.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, I think everyone should perhaps prepare for the Tamworth election in two weeks to potentially "break the swingometer." Selby was itself the second largest swing from Tory to Labour ever in a by-election, with a 23.5 point two-party swing or 47.5 point change. This falls behind the 1994 Dudley West by-election,  with a 29 point swing or 58 point direct change.

Tamworth has a larger Tory majority than Selby, the circumstances surrounding it are better for Labour,  and we just got even more confirmation last night that Tamworth viscerally wants the Tories gone. It's not hard to imagine Dudley West getting surpassed.

[afleitch]

How big an effect do people feel the cause of the by-election had?

Personally I tend to think that the effects of such things on results can get exaggerated: voters can be quite forgiving of parties when their previous incumbent had found their way into the MPs Behaving Badly file (as Andrew Teale calls it) and on the other hand voters can still punish an incumbent party after a death (see Chesham & Amersham). But that does not mean that causes don’t have some effect.

It was a long campaign in Rutherglen, with it effectively begun when Terrier faced her suspension.

Labour were everywhere. It was a genuinely effective campaign.

[EastAnglianLefty]

How big an effect do people feel the cause of the by-election had?

Personally I tend to think that the effects of such things on results can get exaggerated: voters can be quite forgiving of parties when their previous incumbent had found their way into the MPs Behaving Badly file (as Andrew Teale calls it) and on the other hand voters can still punish an incumbent party after a death (see Chesham & Amersham). But that does not mean that causes don’t have some effect.

It was a long campaign in Rutherglen, with it effectively begun when Terrier faced her suspension.

Labour were everywhere. It was a genuinely effective campaign.

You will have a better idea of this than I do, but it also seems like the SNP campaign was ineffective. Scottish Labour won't be able to focus the same resources in a single seat in a general election, nor to call upon support from south of the border, but the SNP have got a lot of defensive targets to resource and the rather flat nature of the campaign (in terms of MSPs being scolded for failing to turn up etc.) suggests that there's some work to do to get ready for the general election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One thing worth noting is that most of this constituency has a very similar social profile and economic structure to the kind of places in England where Labour improvements have been particularly striking of late. When you think about it, it makes sense that the sort of rhetoric and branding that appeals in those places would also work in the core Central Belt, though the confirmation is still extremely welcome for Labour. This does mean we have to be a little careful as regards the precise significance of this result to the rest of Scotland but a) we're still talking of a lot of places here and b) shaking off the loser label is always useful everywhere.

[oldtimer]

Bloody hell. What a result. I was vaguely expecting a Labour win, but not by this much.

SNP and Conservatives go hand in hand these past 20 years.

They are part of the nationalist wave in the UK, which is currently receding.

It's not like Labour isn't nationalist though, they're more openly patriotic and perhaps even nationalist than most other European PES parties.

So to see this and the Tories' demise as part of a receding "nationalist wave" is pretty dim.

The rise of the SNP coincided with the rise of the Conservatives+UKIP vote in England and Wales, and Sinn Fein in Ireland.

Bad economic conditions from the late 2000's onwards made people turn to the extremes until now.

Now it's the extremes that take the blame for the economic mess, because they where in charge for so long.

[afleitch]

One thing worth noting is that most of this constituency has a very similar social profile and economic structure to the kind of places in England where Labour improvements have been particularly striking of late. When you think about it, it makes sense that the sort of rhetoric and branding that appeals in those places would also work in the core Central Belt, though the confirmation is still extremely welcome for Labour. This does mean we have to be a little careful as regards the precise significance of this result to the rest of Scotland but a) we're still talking of a lot of places here and b) shaking off the loser label is always useful everywhere.

I posted here and elsewhere that between 2005 and 2017, Labour's vote share in this seat was a stable 1.38 to 1.45 times whatever it's vote across Scotland. In 2019 it was 1.85 times, with really significant tactical voting. Rewind that back from yesterday and you get about 32% nationwide

Not entirely out of sync with polling.

I'm not a gambler, but good money could have been made with a bit of a data drill down.

Also in 2007, when the SNP eked out the narrowest of popular vote victories in Scotland, in the wards that cover this seat (and I still have the data), Labour were about 19 points clear of the SNP.

So even with the by-election caveats, the turnout caveats etc which has elevated the Labour vote, a seat with this demographic makeup is going to give very strong Labour results when Labour recover.

In 2017, Ferrier's vote tanked 15.6 points compared to 16.6 yesterday albeit from a higher point. Labour were not the main beneficiary at that time.

---

The difficulty for the SNP is that Labour's concentrated vote, plus hyper tactical voting for them by lemmingesque Tories will make seats like these across the Central Belt much easier to fall. Though demographically, there's bound to be stronger pro-Labour effects in Lanarkshire than say, in West Lothian or Glasgow.

[Wiswylfen]

Also, I think everyone should perhaps prepare for the Tamworth election in two weeks to potentially "break the swingometer." Selby was itself the second largest swing from Tory to Labour ever in a by-election, with a 23.5 point two-party swing or 47.5 point change. This falls behind the 1994 Dudley West by-election,  with a 29 point swing or 58 point direct change.

Tamworth has a larger Tory majority than Selby, the circumstances surrounding it are better for Labour,  and we just got even more confirmation last night that Tamworth viscerally wants the Tories gone. It's not hard to imagine Dudley West getting surpassed.

My prediction, made this morning, is as follows:

54 LAB
33 CON
04 REF
03 LDM
03 GRN
03 OTH

[Blair]

Election Night is really going to be shock. It's going to be hard to cope on turnout figures and raw vote figures in certain seats if Labour win 400 seats isn't it.

[Blair]

How big an effect do people feel the cause of the by-election had?

Personally I tend to think that the effects of such things on results can get exaggerated: voters can be quite forgiving of parties when their previous incumbent had found their way into the MPs Behaving Badly file (as Andrew Teale calls it) an on the other hand voters can still punish an incumbent party after a death (see Chesham & Amersham But that does not mean that causes don’t have some effect.

I feel it certainly didn't help; the biggest factor as said before is that it allowed Labour to essentially run a very long campaign. It was so long ago but equally it's a pretty bad way to go & frankly there's a reason why the SNP wanted her to quit when it all came out ages ago. They might have held the seat if it was in 2020 or 2021- or maybe even the summer of 2022.

Al or others might know but it seemed Labour did really well in turning out people to vote Labour (not all of whom were natural labour voters) usually the problem with Labour in by-elections is that they struggle to get near their GE vote for a whole host of reasons but they really seem to have ran an effective campaign.

[Duke of York]

What are the odds of a general election coinciding with the local elections in May?

[Oryxslayer]

What are the odds of a general election coinciding with the local elections in May?

The going expectation is that the Tories, fully enjoying their Lame Duck year to the maximum extent, will wait until the fall or winter of 2024 to face the inevitable. The absolute latest people could go to the polls is early January 2025, but even a doomed government knows its not smart to force their MPs and loyal activists onto doorsteps during the holidays, potentially though a few feet of snow.

This isn't to say that if the councilors had a voice in these matters, they wouldn't call for a coinciding contest. 2015 showed that nationalization of voter behavior is a thing in these situations. 2023 showed that local elections in the current political environment will result in even more losses than anticipated. Some reliable voters just stay home rather than support the incumbent government, and another cohort look at the Lib-Dems and new Greens as a way to oust the Conservatives from even the safest of seats. And in many places, the cohort of councilors up for reelection were elected in 2021, aka the year when the Tories swept places like Dudley, Peterborough, and Swindon. Nationalizing the local elections will help save the furniture in many of these contests, and in some cases preserve local Conservative control.

Additionally, the single biggest reason to have the elections coincide is to save money. This doesn't sound like such a huge factor, but it is. So many councils controlled by both parties are running shoestring budgets, thanks to Conservative cuts over the past decade and the current financial crunch reducing what cash inflows are accessible.

The rebuttal to this of course is that the 2024 local elections have only ~1.2K seats up compared to the 8K+ last year. And the majority are in Labour councils after 2023, so there is not much control to lose, just a deeper hole to fall into. And while I'm sure the Southend, Walsall, Dudley, and Dorset Conservatives would like assistance from on high, 'independent voices' like Houchen, Street, and Hall would prefer to run away from the national brand and focus on the local.

Looming over everything though is the question of whether the elections will occur the moment things improve economically. Some Tories seem to want this, thinking Labour's lead is solely thanks to people being unable to look past their paycheck. And while it may occur, the Conservatives I think would still find themselves with a similarly sized polling deficit, since their unpopular Lame Duck actions have only given people more reason to chuck them out.

[adma]

My prediction, made this morning, is as follows:

54 LAB
33 CON
04 REF
03 LDM
03 GRN
03 OTH

Given Reform's electoral record so far, I've a measured skepticism about them outpolling even a tactically marginalized LDM/GRN.  Or certainly not at a 4% level...

[YL]

My prediction, made this morning, is as follows:

54 LAB
33 CON
04 REF
03 LDM
03 GRN
03 OTH

Given Reform's electoral record so far, I've a measured skepticism about them outpolling even a tactically marginalized LDM/GRN.  Or certainly not at a 4% level...

They did get 6% in Old Bexley & Sidcup and Tamworth is likely to be relatively favourable territory for them.  If I actually believed Reform UK's polling I'd be predicting them to get 10%.

As for the Lib Dems and Greens, there's no evidence that either party is taking much interest and it is not an obvious hotbed of natural support for them.  So in fact, once you factor in the inevitable squeeze, I suspect that 6% for the two combined is on the high side; in Uxbridge & South Ruislip the combined Green and Lib Dem total wouldn't have saved the deposit.

[Wiswylfen]

My prediction, made this morning, is as follows:

54 LAB
33 CON
04 REF
03 LDM
03 GRN
03 OTH

Given Reform's electoral record so far, I've a measured skepticism about them outpolling even a tactically marginalized LDM/GRN.  Or certainly not at a 4% level...

That I have them in third should be taken more as due to the weakness of the Lib Dems (and Greens) than the strength of Reform. I don’t believe the polls showing them on 8% for a second, of course, but 4% in a by-election in Tamworth seems very plausible.

[adma]

My prediction, made this morning, is as follows:

54 LAB
33 CON
04 REF
03 LDM
03 GRN
03 OTH

Given Reform's electoral record so far, I've a measured skepticism about them outpolling even a tactically marginalized LDM/GRN.  Or certainly not at a 4% level...

They did get 6% in Old Bexley & Sidcup and Tamworth is likely to be relatively favourable territory for them.  If I actually believed Reform UK's polling I'd be predicting them to get 10%.

As for the Lib Dems and Greens, there's no evidence that either party is taking much interest and it is not an obvious hotbed of natural support for them.  So in fact, once you factor in the inevitable squeeze, I suspect that 6% for the two combined is on the high side; in Uxbridge & South Ruislip the combined Green and Lib Dem total wouldn't have saved the deposit.

Though even OB&S is old hat by now; and it was also something of a "showcase race" for Reform UK.  Plus I realize that Lib Dem & Green are likely deposit-losers, but they're also likelier generic dead-cat-bouncers--though I could allow the for the possibility of "anti-Pincher Tory" dead-cat bouncing from the other end.  (And I did only say "measured skepticism", mainly because of how consistently Reform's underpolled expectations, as opposed to outright skepticism.)

[Wiswylfen]

My prediction, made this morning, is as follows:

54 LAB
33 CON
04 REF
03 LDM
03 GRN
03 OTH

Given Reform's electoral record so far, I've a measured skepticism about them outpolling even a tactically marginalized LDM/GRN.  Or certainly not at a 4% level...

They did get 6% in Old Bexley & Sidcup and Tamworth is likely to be relatively favourable territory for them.  If I actually believed Reform UK's polling I'd be predicting them to get 10%.

As for the Lib Dems and Greens, there's no evidence that either party is taking much interest and it is not an obvious hotbed of natural support for them.  So in fact, once you factor in the inevitable squeeze, I suspect that 6% for the two combined is on the high side; in Uxbridge & South Ruislip the combined Green and Lib Dem total wouldn't have saved the deposit.

Though even OB&S is old hat by now; and it was also something of a "showcase race" for Reform UK.  Plus I realize that Lib Dem & Green are likely deposit-losers, but they're also likelier generic dead-cat-bouncers--though I could allow the for the possibility of "anti-Pincher Tory" dead-cat bouncing from the other end.  (And I did only say "measured skepticism", mainly because of how consistently Reform's underpolled expectations, as opposed to outright skepticism.)

Given that I think they’re only going to get 4% in a by-election in a constituency that in 2010 gave UKIP 5% and in 2005 them and Veritas a combined 6%, when the bogus polls have had them as high as 10% in the last two months, I’m not quite sure how you’re interpreting that as some sort of prediction of great support.

Tamworth is the sort of seat where the Lib Dems do very poorly indeed and given the circumstances I don’t see why they and the Greens won’t be squeezed. But regardless the main point of my prediction was that I believe that Tamworth is going to see Labour win a clear victory, possibly in the range of a 20-point majority, whereas so many others are predicting that it’ll be narrow and the Conservatives may even keep the seat.

[CumbrianLefty]

Objectively the Tories should at least go close, anything more would be genuinely fabulous for Labour.

(as would be any sort of victory in Mid Beds)