UK By-elections thread, 2021- (user search)
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Author Topic: UK By-elections thread, 2021-  (Read 165732 times)
YL
YorkshireLiberal
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« on: March 18, 2021, 04:52:06 PM »

Labour have indeed selected former Stockton South MP Paul Williams.
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YL
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« Reply #1 on: March 24, 2021, 11:42:06 AM »

Airdrie & Shotts by-election confirmed: Neil Gray has resigned his seat been appointed Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead.
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YL
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« Reply #2 on: March 26, 2021, 11:03:40 AM »

It's MRP, which models individual seats by applying the national voting intention of demographics.  Perhaps useful for a broad indication of the "state of play" but isn't going to be very predictive of a by-election.

It's also very odd.  It was conducted in 83 Northern seats, not particularly focussed on marginals (both safe Labour and safe Tory seats were included, but many Northern marginals were not; also the one Lib Dem seat in the North was not included), but it did include Hartlepool.  It produced predictions for all of those seats, but not for seats outside the 83.  Overall it shows Labour making modest progress, with a reasonable number of gains, including one in a seat Labour didn't win even in 1997 (Altrincham & Sale West, but note that the details in this sort of thing can be badly off), but also some 2019 losses not regained (Sedgefield the most striking, note same caveat).  Because of the weird selection of seats, it's hard to translate into a national picture, but I'd guess hung parliament with the Tories the largest party but a little short of a majority.

I don't think it says as much about the by-election as some people seem to think, even if it's accurate.  People don't vote in the same way in by-elections as in general elections.
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YL
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« Reply #3 on: April 06, 2021, 06:29:59 AM »

Numbers like that with a very small sample size in a constituency poll in a by-election would normally just say 'competitive', particularly a month away from the election itself.

However... er... given who commissioned the poll and some of the 'issues' with this company's constituency polling at the last GE, it might be interesting to see the internals. There are a few things that smell odd as it is.

Does it matter that it was commissioned by a trade union?

What 'issues' are you talking about?

They had some problems with weighting by past vote: they weighted by recalled vote in the 2019 European elections, but it turned out that many people who normally voted Labour or Tory didn't actually remember that they'd voted Brexit Party or Lib Dem, leading to the relatively few respondents who actually remembered voting for those parties -- not of course likely to be very representative of those who had -- getting massively upweighted.

It's not hard to see how there could be similar problems with this poll -- though I'd hope people are more accurate in their recall of a Westminster vote -- but without the tables we don't know.
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YL
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« Reply #4 on: April 06, 2021, 06:47:47 AM »


If they don't get registered by Thursday they won't get a single vote Smiley
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YL
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« Reply #5 on: April 08, 2021, 01:01:16 PM »

16 candidates for Hartlepool

David Bettney (SDP)
The Incredible Flying Brick (OMRLP)
Hilton Dawson (North East Party) [1]
Gemma Evans (Women's Equality Party)
Rachel Featherstone (Green)
Adam Gaines (Independent) [2]
Andrew Hagon (Lib Dem)
Steve Jack (Freedom Alliance) [3]
Chris Killick (no description)
Sam Lee (Independent) [4]
Claire Martin (Heritage Party) [5]
Jill Mortimer (Con)
John Prescott (Reform UK) [6]
Thelma Walker (Independent) [7]
Ralph Ward-Jackson (Independent) [8]
Paul Williams (Lab)

[1] Labour MP for Lancaster & Wyre 1997 to 2005
[2] Pub owner in the town
[3] anti lockdown party with quite a few council election candidates
[4] has a Facebook page, and has some connections with the local football club; I don't know if she's ever dressed up as a monkey
[5] UKIP splinter
[6] no, not that one; Reform UK are the re-branded Brexit Party
[7] the Northern Independence Party weren't registered in time, so she's an Independent on the ballot
[8] appears to be a relative of the man who founded West Hartlepool, of the same name; hard to Google because of that!


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YL
YorkshireLiberal
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« Reply #6 on: April 15, 2021, 04:07:00 PM »

Eight candidates for Airdrie & Shotts:

Stephen Arrundale (Lib Dem)
Ben Callaghan (Con)
Martyn Greene (Reform UK)
Donald Mackay (UKIP)
Neil Manson (SDP)
Jonathan Stanley (Scottish Unionist)
Kenneth Stevenson (Lab)
Anum Qaisar-Javed (SNP)

No Abla (or even Alba)
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YL
YorkshireLiberal
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« Reply #7 on: April 23, 2021, 07:34:23 AM »

Would be interested to know why... I’m quite thick when it comes to polling!

There is a wide range of red flags - again, the 'effective sample size of 302' is enough of one in itself - but this will do as a starter:



Top is the unweighted sample, bottom the weighted sample. A quick comparison to the actual GE results in the constituency may be instructive.

So they're intentionally undercounting the number of people that voted for the Brexit Party in 2019, and the Tories are winning the poll. I'm trying to think what they're trying to pull here if it's not just one of incompetence.

I doubt it was intentional.

They claim that it's false recall: many people saying they voted Tory actually voted Brexit Party.  This is probably true to some extent, but the extent to which the poll shows it stretches credulity a bit.
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YL
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« Reply #8 on: May 04, 2021, 02:44:32 AM »


Not very, but credible enough that the large lead makes me worried.
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YL
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« Reply #9 on: May 07, 2021, 02:04:50 AM »

Ugh, that is probably the most depressing by-election result ever.
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YL
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« Reply #10 on: May 10, 2021, 04:17:00 AM »

Logic would be to have a AWS shortlist with someone who is local & keep anyone who has been an MP a mile away from the seat...

Just do it properly with a reasonably long shortlist and the minimum of anything that can be seen as factional shenanigans, and a decent local candidate can probably be found.
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YL
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« Reply #11 on: May 12, 2021, 03:18:40 AM »

For reference, Chesham and Amersham voted 55% Remain - a very high figure for non-urban England - on an enormous 83% turnout, estimated highest in the country.

Despite this, it voted over 55% Tory in 2019, with the LDs in second, and over 60% in 2017. Indeed, it has never voted less than 50% Tory since its creation in February 1974; even 1997 when it was one of about ten seats to give Major an absolute majority. The only one in the country with that record I should imagine. So the Home Counties seat par excellence.

It was, incidentally, held by Sir Ian Gilmour.

Any chance this swings to the Lib Dems? I would guess it would’ve been more likely pre-2019, when they were polling better nationally.

If Labour and the Greens both run essentially paper campaigns and lose their deposits (not that unlikely in this sort of place) the Lib Dems could have a chance; the Tories could be as high as 45% or so and still lose.  The local election results in the area don't suggest the Lib Dems have got it together yet, though.

Incidentally Nick Clegg grew up in Chalfont St Giles.
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YL
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« Reply #12 on: May 12, 2021, 10:48:56 AM »

The writ for Chesham & Amersham has been moved today.  17 June is the likely date, apparently.

Of course there's also Airdrie & Shotts tomorrow...
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YL
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« Reply #13 on: May 13, 2021, 07:29:29 AM »

They should run a candidate because they’re a national party with 200 seats in the Commons. They’ve gotta fly the flag even if it doesn’t do very much good. Plus, whilst I don’t think the Lib Dems have a hope in Hell of winning the seat, Labour running a candidate lessens the chances of the anti-Tory vote coalescing around them. It would hardly be great optics if the Lib Dems win/come close in a safe Tory seat months after Labour losing a traditionally safe seat to the government (and yes, obviously, different circumstances but that’s not how it would play in the media).

I know it was a different time and all that, but back in 1993 the general view of the LibDems was that Labour putting up token candidates in Newbury/Christchurch helped rather than hindered them.

... which makes sense to me.

In those by-elections (and other more recent ones too, and I would think in any hypothetical Lib Dem gain or near gain in Chesham & Amersham) the Labour share has been very low, at deposit losing levels.  It's likely that much of that residual Labour vote is either very tribal or not keen on the Lib Dems for other reasons, and so might well not transfer to them even if there were no Labour candidate.  So I suspect the upside to the Lib Dems of having no Labour candidate is pretty small, a percentage point or two at the most.

And there is also a downside for the yellows.  If Labour stood down, then the Lib Dem candidate could easily start to be seen as a de facto Labour candidate by some of the electorate, making it harder to get Tory switchers.  Given the number of Tory switchers they need, I think that outweighs the upside.

Not that I'd suggest Labour run a serious campaign or anything.  A name on the ballot paper will do.
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YL
YorkshireLiberal
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« Reply #14 on: May 14, 2021, 02:34:41 AM »

There's a non-zero chance of Labour losing their deposit in this by-election.  Would this be seen as "Labour in disarray" or would it not be all that big a deal?  When last did one of the two big parties lose a deposit at a Westminster seat?

If the race is viewed as a Tory-Lib Dem contest then it wouldn't be that surprising. Labour lost their deposit at the Richmond Park by-election and I think almost did in Bromley and Chislehurst where they came fourth.

At this point I would be surprised if Labour didn't lose their deposit, and would think it reflected badly on the Lib Dem campaign.
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YL
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« Reply #15 on: May 18, 2021, 01:58:14 AM »

Labour have selected a candidate, thereby annoying various "progressive alliance" people on Twitter.  She's a Slough councillor (Cippenham Meadows ward) and cabinet member, Natasa Pantelic.
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YL
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« Reply #16 on: May 20, 2021, 11:01:21 AM »
« Edited: May 20, 2021, 11:17:34 AM by YL »

Eight candidates for Chesham & Amersham

Carolyne Culver (Green)
Brendan Donnelly (Rejoin EU) [1]
Peter Fleet (Con)
Sarah Green (Lib Dem)
Carla Gregory (Breakthrough Party) [2]
Adrian Oliver (Freedom Alliance) [3]
Natasa Pantelic (Lab)
Alex Wilson (Reform UK)

[1] Donnelly was elected as a Conservative MEP in 1994.  He resigned from the party and was a co-founder of the short lived Pro Euro Conservative Party.  He was briefly in the Lib Dems, but stood in the 2009 and 2014 European elections in London under the labels "Yes2Europe" and "4 Freedoms Party" respectively, and in the recent London election for Rejoin UK.

[2] Small left-wing outfit, described on their Twitter page as a "youth-led democratic socialist party".

[3] Anti lockdown party who stood in various places in the local elections without much impact that I'm aware of.
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YL
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« Reply #17 on: May 27, 2021, 04:54:35 AM »

The writ has been moved for Batley & Spen; polling day will be 1 July.
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YL
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« Reply #18 on: May 27, 2021, 06:31:35 AM »

The writ has been moved for Batley & Spen; polling day will be 1 July.

When will we know the full list of candidates?

Friday next week (4 June), I think.  (19 working days before the election.)
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YL
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« Reply #19 on: May 27, 2021, 12:57:48 PM »



In other news.

I do hope he loses his deposit.
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YL
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« Reply #20 on: June 04, 2021, 12:18:52 PM »

It's still not clear whether the Heavy Woollen District Independents are standing, is it?
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YL
YorkshireLiberal
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« Reply #21 on: June 04, 2021, 12:31:40 PM »

Tbh not sure if Galloway counts as "far left" these days either.....

Some of his recent antics look like an argument for the "horseshoe theory".
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YL
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« Reply #22 on: June 07, 2021, 10:49:48 AM »
« Edited: June 07, 2021, 10:54:21 AM by YL »

16 candidates for Batley & Spen

Paul Bickerdike (Christian People's Alliance)
Mike Davies (Alliance for Green Socialism)
Jayda Fransen (Independent)
George Galloway (Workers Party)
Thomas Gordon (Lib Dem)
Thérèse Hirst (Eng Dem)
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)
Susan Laird (Heritage Party)
Kim Leadbeater (Lab)
Oliver Purser (SDP)
Corey Robinson (Yorkshire Party)
Andrew Smith (Rejoin EU)
Ryan Stephenson (Con)
Jack Thomson (UKIP)
Jonathan Tilt (Freedom Alliance)
Anne Marie Waters (For Britain)

No Green.  Alliance for Green Socialism is a Leeds-based microparty.
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YL
YorkshireLiberal
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« Reply #23 on: June 15, 2021, 04:15:17 PM »

Obvious internal polling caveats aside, this could be scary for the stories even if they win, as noted. It was a 55% remain according to calculations. Labour and Greens might have to be careful about their deposits (especially the Greens, I think).

If Labour don't lose their deposit then I would think the Lib Dems will be disappointed with the effectiveness of the squeeze.
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YL
YorkshireLiberal
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« Reply #24 on: June 16, 2021, 11:41:00 AM »

If the Lib Dems win, then it's obviously a good result for them, and a poor one for the Tories, but I don't think it should be regarded as a shock on the level some are suggesting.  The Tories in Government (except during the Coalition years of course) have often been vulnerable to the Lib Dems (and their predecessors) in basically safe seats where Labour are very weak; this seat fits that pattern.

I also suspect that if Labour do lose their deposit the concern trolls will be out in force saying how terrible a result this is for them.  Now, I'm not going to deny that Labour have problems, but that just needs three words in response: Newbury, Christchurch, Winchester.
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