UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

I know someone from Hartlepool who insists that there are no Tories in Hartlepool.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Constituency polling is crap in general, yes. Survation are putting their (respectable, by UK standards) reputation on the line here.

The "Others" figures are even less believable than the size of the Tory lead, tbh.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

I don't believe the Hartlepool polls. The Brexit Party vote would have to split very strongly for the Tories, and Starmer has improved on Corbyn both nationwide and it appears the Brexit divide has reduced. However, perhaps candidate quality and bad luck has taken a Labour marginal to a Tory marginal.

If the Labour vote is depressed (as it may be, per some suggestions) whilst the Tory vote holds up better than Labour's then the Brexit Party vote wouldn't need to do so.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

It will be interesting to see how Paul ‘NO ROME RULE’ Mason reconciles his evangelical fervour for Labour to ignore places like Hartlepool as part of its election strategy with his desire to replace Starmer as Labour leader with a supporter of ‘luxury auto communism’.

Mason backed Starmer for leader, interestingly enough.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

A LD victory would give them the useful reward of reminding a lot of people that they actually still exist.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Why should Sir Keir Starmer have to resign because of two by-election losses? Labour leaders, back to Harold Wilson in the 1966-70 Parliament, have suffered numerous large by-election defeats without having to resign. The talent pool in the Parliamentary Labour Party seems very shallow at the moment, so I do not see how any possible replacement would be certain to be an improvement.

Wilson isn't the best comparison in this case because he was Prime Minister. By-elections are generally a struggle for governments regardless of popularity - even Labour didn't manage to gain any in the late 1990s.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Batley and Spen by-election today.

I'm going to be bold with my prediction (why not?) and say:
- Tories win
- Tories increase their share from 2019 by around 8%
- Galloway and Leadbeater are within 5% of each other
- Galloway comes ahead of Leadbeater

So something like:
Conservatives 40-47%
Galloway 23-33%
Labour 21-30%
LibDems 2%

I am going to either look really smart or really foolish in 24 hours.  Probably the latter

I would be extremely suprised I'd Galloway breaks 5%, European Muslims generaly haven't had a problem with LGBT candidates and in unsure why it would be different here

He's the main 'protest' candidate which is always worth a fair few votes in a by-election. I doubt he'll reach the 20s but 10% seems quite plausible.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Sadly, there will soon be a by-election in Old Bexley & Sidcup.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1465813823814836230?ref_src=twsrc%5Et...

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

About 10% for the right-of-Tories parties.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Early rumours that the Tories have held on. Labour vote firmer than the Lib Dems would have liked.

And another that says the exact opposite.  Once against mixed signals.

What other rumor? Do you got a link?

The betting markets have switched and now have the Tories as most likely winners.

Lib Dems back as favourites as of now.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1471620962001076226?s=20

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1471633587199959046?s=20

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1471640872940933121?s=20

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

https://twitter.com/LizzyBuchan/status/1471656755054657538?s=20

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Via The Independent: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-north-shropshire-by-election-news-live-b1977753.html?amp

Lib Dems ‘confident’ about comfortable win

Christine Jardine, the Liberal Democrat’s treasury spokesperson, has said she is “confident” the Liberal Democrats have “won comfortably”.

For Boris Johnson, she says, “the party is over”.

Might be spin - but felt worth posting.

Why would it be spin? The votes have been cast.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Well done to the Lib Dems.

Can't see the new MP winning any oratory prizes soon, though.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

FTR only (at this stage) - Birmingham Erdington coming up, following the death of Jack Dromey.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Liberal gain.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

It would have been terrible for Labour if he had as the leadership speculation would have ensued immediately.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

If this is a resigning issue, then I expect many more by-elections this year, given that there are rumours of far greater misdeeds.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Ed Davey isn't someone who I am much of a fan of, but he is the ideal Lib Dem leader for by-elections such as North Shropshire and Tiverton and Honiton. Compare him to the other leaders or plausible leaders since 2015 - Swinson (fanatical fbper), Farron (disaster due to unconventional religious views), Cable (too much associated with the Coalition and Remain), Moran (would have been an idol of liberal-left Twitter, which means that she would have been a disaster as leader), Gina Miller (yes, I recall that this person was put forward as a potential leader of the Lib Dems or a similar outfit a few years prior). Davey is both inoffensive enough and someone who has been around the block enough in a political sense to do well in these kinds of contests. Of course, by this I mean that no one gives much of a crap about him or has even heard of him. Someone like Moran would have been tabloid gossip, and it would have cost the Lib Dems in electoral terms.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1537100815684489222?s=20&t=XnwEUyK...

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

https://twitter.com/Tony_Diver/status/1537439707818209280?s=20&t=mZngtFb2Xnd...

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

https://mobile.twitter.com/timfarron/status/1539630537668804609

It's Labour voters who prop up Conservative Clubs in a lot of places, so I hear. Still amusing.