UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Blair]

Having said all that it appears the Labour Party is maneuvering its current Cleveland PCC candidate Paul Williams into position as their prospective parliamentary candidate. Being a rabid remainer in one of the most leave-voting constituencies in the country, perhaps Labour are being sporting and trying to make it a closer race than it should be.

He’s hardly a rabid remainer- he isn’t an Adonis type. His position was pretty much the same as the other pro peoples vote MPs in the NE & while a GE is different there wasn’t really a difference between how individual MPs did based on whether they were pro PV.

Brexit also doesn’t really antimate voters in the same way it did in 2019; see the rather muted response to Labour supporting the Brexit deal.

I feel Brexit will become the Tories ‘break glass in case of emergency’ tactic, in the same way Labour revert back to the NHS when they’re struggling... which itself ties into what the theme of this by-election will be for Labour!

However- I should add that if he existed without his voting record (and twitter handle- when will MPs learn?) he would be a much stronger candidate.

And to add the circumstances of his selection are likely to ruffle some feathers... which at best will just mean a few less hands to deliver leaflets, but at worse could theoretically lead to some pissed off members voting for a some quasi independent bid.

[Blair]

Reform Party officially announces that they will stand in Hartlepool.

Also confirmed there will be a second Westminster byelection (both almost certainly on 6 May) for Airdrie and Shotts, where the sitting SNP MP is standing aside so they can run for Holyrood. Looks fairly safe for the Nats on paper, though their majority over Labour fell to under 200 at the 2017 GE.

Can't find any mention of this on their twitter- I wonder if they're running someone local.

If not I can't see them even moderately well unless Tice runs (and he wouldn't be the first third party to do very well in one election & then lose a huge chunk of their vote in the next)

[Blair]

Distinct rumblings that not all Tories are happy with their chosen candidate in Hartlepool.

Makes you wonder how bad the other candidates were; the only warped logic is that they just need an empty vessel but yeah it does seem baffling awful & the type of person who you run in a seat with a Labour majority of 10K+

[Blair]

I wonder how much CWU paid for it.

The numbers for NIP seem higher than I expect but equally the numbers for Reform UK are what I expect- I think if someone called me up and asked me on the spot what the Brexit Party is now called I'd certainly struggle

[Blair]

The questions in the poll also relate to issues for CWU as a union; they represent both postal workers and engineers. I assume they were added to justify the cost....

CWU are an interesting union; they played a big part in the 2019 manifesto and seemed to pick up some profile on the left when UNITE were well being UNITE. They also lack the need to work as closely with the leadership as the other big unions so they can get away with this.

though I'd hope people are more accurate in their recall of a Westminster vote -- but without the tables we don't know.

So the internals are online and I've seen them. They are... er... well... problematic. I would suggest that we ignore this poll completely. Even if it ends up being 'right' it will only have done so by complete accident.

Would be interested to know why... I’m quite thick when it comes to polling!

[Blair]

It seems to have got everyone very excited (some MPs are slagging off the CWU while Labour activists are slagging off the leadership) but surely the simple thing is to wait- I never understand the need to poll by elections unless it’s a very long/weird multi candidate race.

[Blair]

Oh joy this poll is leading to more battles in the forever war... with the CWU claiming the poll is fine as national polls are only based on slightly bigger samples.

[Blair]

Thelma Walker will be on the ballot as an independent as NIP failed to register in time... I doubt it makes a huge difference but still interesting

[Blair]

If anybody still cares the SDP appear to have been campaigning with a Tank.

I've heard various (and usual) rumblings that its not looking great for Labour; but it certainly doesn't feel the same way that Copeland felt- although that seat was a lot more marginal & had the issue of Sellafield

[Blair]

Though it may or not be significant that Labour people are starting to brief "think we will do it".

Interesting I seem to have missed this?

[Blair]

Sam Lee, the independent with 6%, shared a post on her facebook saying she boycotts self-service machines... so it would be rather funny to see her get 6%.

[Blair]

The poll is grim & would really show that there's a rot deeper than just a popular government with a vaccine bounce- I mean the Conservative candidate is pretty much as close to a blank slate as you could get. 

[Blair]

Would be shocked if I wake up to a Labour win

[Blair]

Wow. I was quite wrong.

As for Starmer, I like him but he's pretty ineffective. He hasn't been out criticising the poor handling of Brexit. How much have we heard about the collapse of negotiations with Norway? (Virtually nothing.)

Late to this but very much doubt that this would have helped at all.

I don't even know what's happened with Norway!

[Blair]

Logic would be to have a AWS shortlist with someone who is local & keep anyone who has been an MP a mile away from the seat...

[Blair]

I know its very much not how things are done but I don't see the logic in Labour running a candidate in Chesham

[Blair]

Compare the coverage of this with Hartlepool... it actually seems smart that Lab were pulling people out of the West Midlands to go here.

[Blair]

Eight candidates for Chesham & Amersham

Carla Gregory (Breakthrough Party) [2]

[2] Small left-wing outfit, described on their Twitter page as a "youth-led democratic socialist party".

https://twitter.com/JamesEFoster/status/1394911581834825730?s=20

Think that tells you all you need to know.

This has strong vibes of when 5-6 tiny parties were all fighting to be the 'social democratic, pro-EU' splinter group from Labour.

[Blair]

Here's an article on the forthcoming Batley and Spen by-election from Tory blog Conservative Home. https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/05/labour-voters-make-kim-leadbeater-sister-of-jo-cox-early-favourite-in-the-batley-and-spen-by-election.html A surprisingly American example of a pre-election article, it has all the hallmarks of a 'Trump voters at a Mahoning County diner' article.

The key thing about Leadbeater is that she is local (as is her family) & not just in the Westminster sense- she's lived and worked in the constituency.

Jo Cox was a popular local MP but had only been in office for a year before her tragic murder, so I've been a bit unsure about how much of a local vote existed.

[Blair]

The Tories should have thought outside the box and run Paul Halloran.  Alas.  At least our candidate is semi-local.

I see Geoff has joined the orange horde.

Quite possibly might have lost as many votes as he gained.

Galloway appears to be sticking his oar in regarding this one, btw.

This could cause some issues but he's not the same campaigner that won in 2012...

[Blair]

To which the obvious retort is - it didn't hurt them in Hartlepool.

OTOH, Tories had the candidate seemingly closer connected to the Hartlepool community in that by election geographically. Williams had the perception of someone from the south, whereas Jill Mortimer had the Aura of a northerner, even if she was from just outside Teesside. Nobody can deny Leadbeater's connections to B&S, so this time maybe it would be the Tories who suffer from airlifting in a distant candidate. Or maybe geography won't be an issue in this campaign since they are both Yorkshire Northers.  

Williams in his defence had worked in Hartlepool & represented the neighbouring seat-some people claimed he suffered more so from being a defeated MP & there's a good argument that a generic Labour candidate would have done better... but it was very clear that the Tories were picking someone with virtually no link to the seat and who was in reality on the ballot as 'Boris Johnson's Conservative candidate'.

More broadly I don't think it matters as much as people think it does; it can help sway some votes but it generally needs to hook into a much wider issue (e.g they're not local which is why they don't understand why local issue x is so important) 

[Blair]

Would be interested to know people's early thoughts/predictions on this

[Blair]

Sunday Times has an article claiming that Galloway is basically going to take the entire ‘muslim’ (their words) vote and doom Labour

[Blair]

Sunday Times has an article claiming that Galloway is basically going to take the entire ‘muslim’ (their words) vote and doom Labour

It really does have the whiff of an uncritical pro-GG puff piece.

Then again, after Hartlepool it makes some sense for Labour people to fear the worst.

Much like with Hartlepool it will be the size of the margin that will actually be more newsworthy; if Labour lose by say 500 votes (with Galloway having got 1,000) then it's obviously frustrating and bad for Labour... but there will have been bigger problems going into this race that could have offset this.

Doesn't really help that neither of these by-elections were actually required...

[Blair]

Oh yeah I stupidly wrote newsworthy when I meant 'how I would assess the scale of the results myself'- if he loses I expect a challenge to Starmers leadership in some form.

Knowing Labour there will be a challenge which will get stuck at 39 signatures... which will lead nicely up to the party conference.