UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Duke of York]

Sounds as if each party is going to win 1 seat tonight. Ulez saving the tories in Uxbridge

There is no evidence for this at the moment.

[Duke of York]

Caught up on the last 2 months of the thread tonight, just wanted to point out:

Can someone give a Lean Likely Tossup type analysis of the By elections and when will they be?

After some quick research it seems like the 3 are

Safe CONSERVATIVE (likely Swing to LAB)
Safe CONSERVATIVE (likely Swing to LAB)
Lean CONSERVATIVE (SAFE Swing to LAB)

Can we please just ban him?


On a more serious note, what are the implications of this going forward assuming the results don't change? Are the Tories just going to go on, continuing to shed members until the full five-year term is up? Is there any prospect of another leadership challenge?

I think they are going to wait to have an election until late next year.

[Duke of York]

Cute and gay (I think?).

He definitely is cute. I haven’t found any mention of him being gay though.

[Duke of York]

Uxbridge is actually a helpful outlier because the Tories will now obsess over a niche issue which never usually works well for them.

When unusual by-election results occur, it's usually a warning about a specific policy causing a lot of political pain.

George Galloway was a warning that Labour had specific trouble with foreign policy.

Conservatives lost in Richmond Park in 2016, and I saw it as a warning that Theresa May was going to have trouble with Brexit.

Labour losing Uxbridge is in my mind a similar warning that Labour will have trouble with green policies and would need to revise them.

At the very least Khan will have to ditch the ULEZ plans, because it clearly cost Labour the seat.

I think you're reading too much into a by election result. Yes ULEZ cost Labour a seat when the election was fought on ULEZ but the general election won't be fought on ULEZ.

A lot of by election gains are then lost at the following election because the niche circumstances that lead to the by election result no longer exist.

Also, turnout matters. 15-25pp extra turnout will make a huge difference in the general election.

It's completely plausible that Labour comfortably win Uxbridge next year even if the polls narrow.

So both winners in these elections are guaranteed to lose the next general election?

[Duke of York]

What are the odds of a general election coinciding with the local elections in May?

[Duke of York]

with how by elections have been going lately i just assume Labour will win them. the big question is do they hold these constituencies at the next general election?

[Duke of York]

Sunak should call a GE early just to spare us from this.

why?

[Duke of York]

I agree, but there are multiple reports the Tories are fighting a remarkably desultory campaign.

Still, they got 62% in Wellingborough in 2019. Even a North Shropshire level campaign adjusted for the current environment shouldn’t be at risk of coming third behind Reform UK.

If the Tories can't hold this seat then no seat is safe and not only will the next general elections be bloodbath the next general election will likely surpass the 1997 election in terms of seat gain and swing.

[Duke of York]

I agree, but there are multiple reports the Tories are fighting a remarkably desultory campaign.

Still, they got 62% in Wellingborough in 2019. Even a North Shropshire level campaign adjusted for the current environment shouldn’t be at risk of coming third behind Reform UK.

If the Tories can't hold this seat then no seat is safe and not only will the next general elections be bloodbath the next general election will likely surpass the 1997 election in terms of seat gain and swing.

The latter half of the sentence may be true, but the former half isn't. The Tory majority in Wellingborough was extremely large in 2019, but not many of those are people who could only ever conceive of voting Tory. There are plenty of other seats where the share of the electorate who will vote Tory no matter what is much higher.

makes sense
the local elections in may will probably be a bloodbath too.

[Duke of York]

There's also a Lib Dem source claiming a "huge win" for Labour.

EDIT: Wellingborough.

if a seat like this is not safe the general election in the fall will be insane. Sky news will be beyond entertaining to watch.

[Duke of York]

Unless there is actually a May GE, it is very likely this byelection happens if the recall passes. I know there is chatter about Tory whips trying to block it (there was about Wellingborough and Kingswood as well) but it would look especially bad if voters there had effectively asked for it to happen.

a may election seems unlikely at this point.

[Duke of York]

Unless there is actually a May GE, it is very likely this byelection happens if the recall passes. I know there is chatter about Tory whips trying to block it (there was about Wellingborough and Kingswood as well) but it would look especially bad if voters there had effectively asked for it to happen.

a may election esteems unlikely at this point.

There are still some trying to talk it up.

Who is?

[Duke of York]

Can Galloway hold the seat in the general election?

[Duke of York]

I assume the Blackpool by election will be held with the local elections?