Spanish elections and politics III / Andalusian elections on June 19, 2022
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics III / Andalusian elections on June 19, 2022  (Read 35605 times)
omar04
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« Reply #675 on: June 19, 2022, 04:42:49 PM »

What's up with Dos Hermanas and the shock at it going PP? Is it a ancestral PSOE voting town?
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Mike88
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« Reply #676 on: June 19, 2022, 04:43:58 PM »

Almost final results, 99.63% counted:

43.1% PP, 58 seats (+32)
24.1% PSOE, 30 (-3)
13.5% Vox, 14 (+2)
  7.7% PorA, 5 (new)
  4.6% AA, 2 (new)
  3.3% C's, 0 (-21)
  1.0% PACMA, 0 (nc)
  2.7% Others, 0 (nc)

58.4% Turnout
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Skye
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« Reply #677 on: June 19, 2022, 04:58:47 PM »

Pretty much a disaster for the left. Only 36% of the vote in Andalusia? That has to be a historic low.
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Velasco
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« Reply #678 on: June 20, 2022, 01:42:43 AM »
« Edited: June 20, 2022, 02:00:37 AM by Velasco »

Gains and losses

PP +831634 (+22.38%) +32 seats
PSOE -127182 (-3.85%) -3 seats
Vox +97235 (+2.5%) +2  seats
Left* -134182 (-3.92%) -10 seats
Cs -540501 (-14.99%) -21 seats

* PorA+AA. In case of a joint list getting the same amount of votes, the left would have won 12-13 seats at the expense of PP and PSOE. The PP would be on the edge of majority with 54-55 seats in this hypothetical scenario. It's clear that infighting costs votes, while division costs seats in regions with multiple provincial constituencies.

Anyway, in my opinion,  the left-wing candidates were pathetic on election night. On the one hand, it's terrible that Inma Nieto doeplores division without any self-criticism, because the parties to the left have been losing votes since their historic high of 2015. On the other hand, it's ridiculous to see Teresa Rodríguez bragging about the strategic failure of Vox. It's the Moreno's absolute majority the factor that makes Vox irrelevant and not her meager results. Seemingly they haven't learnt any lesson.  Reconstruction will be hard


Pretty much a disaster for the left. Only 36% of the vote in Andalusia? That has to be a historic low.

Bloodbath and all time low, indeed
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Estrella
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« Reply #679 on: June 20, 2022, 02:00:23 AM »

Holding on!



(I presume the reason they went for PorA rather than Adelante is that it's a very "old left"/PCE kind of place, and PCE/IU/Podemos are in PorA)
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Velasco
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« Reply #680 on: June 20, 2022, 02:17:13 AM »

El Ejido

PP 47.56 (+20.65)
Vox 27.76 (-1.75)
PSOE 14.54 (-1.26)
Left 5.15 (-2.62)
Cs 2.77 (-13.41)


Vox came first in 2018
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Velasco
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« Reply #681 on: June 20, 2022, 02:49:31 AM »
« Edited: June 20, 2022, 04:45:31 AM by Velasco »

Holding on!



(I presume the reason they went for PorA rather than Adelante is that it's a very "old left"/PCE kind of place, and PCE/IU/Podemos are in PorA)

 Basically it's the mayor, Juan Manuel Sánchez Gordillo,  the one who determines the winner in Marinaleda. He has a party called CUT (Candidatura Unitaria de Trabajadores) that is integrated within the Andalusian branch of IU. Gordillo also belongs to the SAT, an agrarian union with some strength in the Andalusian countryside. I can tell you some SAT members are also in the Teresa Rodríguez project, because a friend of mine has ties to that union and was running as the AA head of list in Jaén. AA and the CUT share some sort of left-wing nationalism*, but the old-fashioned Gordillo had nothing to do with Podemos when the younger Teresa Rodríguez was its regional leader. Amazingly eenough Cs got just 1 vote in Marinaleda (down from 73 in 2018)

* Rodríguez and Gordillo belong to different generations and have different backgrounds. The latter is an idiosyncratic comminist / radical leftist from inland Andalusia, traditional battleground between rentist landowners and impoverished agricultural labourers. Teresa Rodríguez is from the coast (Rota, home of the US military base on the Bay of Cádiz).  I think the intent of Rodríguez is to capitalize a certain surge in the vindication of Andalusian identity, that can be seen in cultural manifestations. That identity surge appears to be more urban and youngster in character, unrelated to the traditional countryside.  In any case, the political translation of that cultural identity trend is not very clear. AA is basically a vehicle for Teresa Rodríguez, who has a certain popularity (particularly in the Bay of Cádiz) and got some visibility in TV debates. I might be wrong, but right now I don't see the beginning of a strong regionalist movement and doubt AA will go anywere without Teresa Rodríguez and her life partner Kichi Rodríguez (incumbent mayor of Cádiz)
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #682 on: June 20, 2022, 07:26:50 AM »

A depressing result, but truth be told Andalusia has been trending right for a while now - and maybe its leading PSOE figure for so long being Spain's equivalent of Liz Kendall wasn't an unalloyed good.
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Mike88
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« Reply #683 on: June 21, 2022, 04:34:43 AM »

First poll after the Andalusian election:

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Velasco
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« Reply #684 on: June 21, 2022, 06:17:12 AM »

I don't know if anybody has linked this excellent precinct map, which allows you to check party and bloc results

https://www.eldiario.es/andalucia/resultados-elecciones-andalucia-calle-calle-consulta-voto-manzana_1_9099247.html

You can search for results across all Andalusia, one of the largest European regions. Looking at the socioeconomic extremes within the city of Sevilla,  there is a striking contrast between the wealthy Los Remedios neighborhood and the poor 3000 Viviendas. I'll post two random sections. If you search for their locarions, you will notice they're not so far from each other

Los Remedios (Section 05-023)

Turnout: 81.4 (+2.7)

PP 69.1 (+31.7)
VOX 22.9 (-11.3)
Cs 2 5 (-18.3)
PSOE 2.3 (-0.Cool
AA 1.3 *
PorA 0.8*
* Combined AA+PorA (-0.4)

Notice the Cs and Vox transfers to the PP in this uber-weallthy precinct

3000 Viviendas (Section 05-018)

Turnout 30.7 (+1.9)

PSOE 51.7 (-8.4)
PP 16.5 (+14.2)
VOX 9.3 (+5.4)
PorA 8.1*
AA 5.9*
PACMA 3 8
* Combined AA+PorA (-3.0)

There are sections in this neighbourhood with even lower turnouts  3000 Viviendas is one of the poorest places in Spain


First poll after the Andalusian election:

I'd wait for more reliable stuff, for this is a trash pollster working for a Vox-friendly outlet. No doubt the result in Andalusia will have an impact in subsequent polls, but maybe Vox will be polling below 19%

By the way, GAD3 (ran by the conservative Narciso Michavila) was spotted on again in its tracking poll,  released by RTVE immediately after polls closed.
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jaichind
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« Reply #685 on: June 22, 2022, 08:11:21 AM »

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/06/21/readout-of-president-bidens-call-with-president-pedro-sanchez-of-spain/

"Readout of President Biden’s Call with President Pedro Sánchez of Spain"

Quote
President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. and President Pedro Sánchez of Spain spoke today about preparations for the NATO Summit, which will be held in Madrid on June 29-30, 2022.  The leaders welcomed the opportunity to see each other on the upcoming trip. President Biden thanked President Sánchez for Spain’s hosting of the summit, at which Allies will continue to chart the course of NATO’s transformation over the next decade.  President Biden expressed appreciation for Spain’s close cooperation in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine, including its provision of security and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine and its support for strong sanctions on Russia.

White House readout refers to Pedro Sánchez as President of Spain.  Biden did not know he was speaking to PM and not the President of Spain Smiley
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kaoras
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« Reply #686 on: June 22, 2022, 08:28:41 AM »
« Edited: June 22, 2022, 09:44:35 AM by kaoras »

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/06/21/readout-of-president-bidens-call-with-president-pedro-sanchez-of-spain/

"Readout of President Biden’s Call with President Pedro Sánchez of Spain"

Quote
President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. and President Pedro Sánchez of Spain spoke today about preparations for the NATO Summit, which will be held in Madrid on June 29-30, 2022.  The leaders welcomed the opportunity to see each other on the upcoming trip. President Biden thanked President Sánchez for Spain’s hosting of the summit, at which Allies will continue to chart the course of NATO’s transformation over the next decade.  President Biden expressed appreciation for Spain’s close cooperation in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine, including its provision of security and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine and its support for strong sanctions on Russia.

White House readout refers to Pedro Sánchez as President of Spain.  Biden did not know he was speaking to PM and not the President of Spain Smiley

Akshually Pedro Sánchez's official title is "Presidente del Gobierno" so he isn't really wrong
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jaichind
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« Reply #687 on: June 22, 2022, 08:32:49 AM »



Anshually Pedro Sánchez's official title is "Presidente del Gobierno" so he isn't really wrong

Ah ... did not know that.  Thanks for this info.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #688 on: June 22, 2022, 08:40:05 AM »

It's one of those funny translation issues: the word 'President' having more meanings in other languages than it does in English, where it always denotes the Head of State or an equivalent post with ceremonial importance: the President of a Trade Union as opposed to its General Secretary, for instance. So it should be 'Prime Minister' or 'Premier', but it's the sort of error that will happen occasionally. It isn't as bad as the ghastly, borderline illiterate but gloomily common, translation of Ministerpräsident into 'Minister President', or the undeniably illiterate translation of Partido Popular into 'Popular Party'.
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Velasco
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« Reply #689 on: June 22, 2022, 10:52:32 PM »

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/06/21/readout-of-president-bidens-call-with-president-pedro-sanchez-of-spain/

"Readout of President Biden’s Call with President Pedro Sánchez of Spain"

Quote
President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. and President Pedro Sánchez of Spain spoke today about preparations for the NATO Summit, which will be held in Madrid on June 29-30, 2022.  The leaders welcomed the opportunity to see each other on the upcoming trip. President Biden thanked President Sánchez for Spain’s hosting of the summit, at which Allies will continue to chart the course of NATO’s transformation over the next decade.  President Biden expressed appreciation for Spain’s close cooperation in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine, including its provision of security and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine and its support for strong sanctions on Russia.

White House readout refers to Pedro Sánchez as President of Spain.  Biden did not know he was speaking to PM and not the President of Spain Smiley

Actually Pedro Sánchez's official title is "Presidente del Gobierno" so he isn't really wrong

We usually translate "PM" and "regional premier" in this thread, but the official titles in Spanish are: presidente del gobierno and presidente de la comunidad autónoma. "Autonomous community" is a term that only exists in Spain and depicts a region with a high degree of autonomy. I take "regional premier " from the English edition of El País. I think "regional premier" is more appropiate than "regional president", because we say that Pedro Sánchez is a "PM and not a "president" (Sánchez is the head of government in a constitutional monarchy). Juanma Moreno in Andalusia is not above Pedro Sánchez in the hierarchy (we assume a "president" is above a "prime minister" in republican regimes). In some countries there exist "chiefs of government", but I think "PM" or "premier" are better
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Velasco
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« Reply #690 on: June 23, 2022, 02:27:44 AM »
« Edited: June 23, 2022, 02:47:54 AM by Velasco »

I would have never imagine myself cheering Gabriel Rufián,  a politician whom I despised in his beginnings and deemed a Twitter populist. The man has improved during these years - maybe he took lessons from the previous ERC spokesman Joan Tardà, who was a good parlamentarian. In this intervention Rufián makes a diagnosis of the social and political situation that is triggering a change of cycle, urging the government to take measures and react. It is imperative to tax energy companies, which are profitting at the expense of a citizenship beaten by the galloping inflation. The words of Rufián are in line with a recent article of Iñigo Errejón in Público (he proposed. Action lines besides the diagnosis on a reactionary cycle). There are local and regional elections in May 2023, while the mandate of the current government expires in November 2023. The PSOE has been severely injured in Andalusia, but it's not dead already (the situation of the parties to its left is worse). They are still in time to try something before the explosive context created by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine devours them



I found the price of watermelons and cherries prohibitive when I went shopping yesterday,  but they weren't as high as 12/13 Euros per kilogram (maybe Rufián is talking about prices in Madrid or Barcelona). Not yet
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Mike88
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« Reply #691 on: June 23, 2022, 05:51:48 AM »
« Edited: June 23, 2022, 06:41:13 AM by Mike88 »

I'm not a fan of Sanchéz at all, but at least he's reacting to the raising cost of living and doing something about it unlike his neighbor country, which the government says, over and over again, that it cannot reduce VAT on several products without EU permition, while Spain is doing that without any worries. The difference in gas prices is around 30-40 cents between Portugal and Spain, and we still pay 23% of VAT on electricity, with reduced taxes of 6% and 13% for small outputs, which in some cases would only let a few items work, lol.

Watermelons and cherries prices vary, of course, between places, but from what I've seen when I go out shooping, cherries are around 6 euros per kilo and watermelons cost at around 9 euros per unit. Of course, much more expensive here as we earn half of what the Spanish earn.
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Velasco
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« Reply #692 on: June 23, 2022, 07:19:13 AM »
« Edited: June 23, 2022, 09:46:26 AM by Velasco »

Reducing VAT is not enough and the government needs to compensate the loss of revenues. I concur with Rufián and others that we need to tax the rich and the energy companies


Watermelons and cherries prices vary, of course, between places, but from what I've seen when I go out shooping, cherries are around 6 euros per kilo and watermelons cost at around 9 euros per unit. Of course, much more expensive here as we earn half of what the Spanish earn.

Same prices here in the islands. Very expensive, but I still can afford them. I bought some cherries
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« Reply #693 on: June 23, 2022, 01:37:39 PM »

I'm not a fan of Sanchéz at all, but at least he's reacting to the raising cost of living and doing something about it unlike his neighbor country, which the government says, over and over again, that it cannot reduce VAT on several products without EU permition, while Spain is doing that without any worries. The difference in gas prices is around 30-40 cents between Portugal and Spain, and we still pay 23% of VAT on electricity, with reduced taxes of 6% and 13% for small outputs, which in some cases would only let a few items work, lol.

Watermelons and cherries prices vary, of course, between places, but from what I've seen when I go out shooping, cherries are around 6 euros per kilo and watermelons cost at around 9 euros per unit. Of course, much more expensive here as we earn half of what the Spanish earn.

Ironically, gasoline prices in Spain have now tied Portugal's which is historically an anomally as we used to have lower prices.
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Mike88
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« Reply #694 on: June 23, 2022, 04:57:01 PM »
« Edited: June 23, 2022, 05:00:39 PM by Mike88 »

I'm not a fan of Sanchéz at all, but at least he's reacting to the raising cost of living and doing something about it unlike his neighbor country, which the government says, over and over again, that it cannot reduce VAT on several products without EU permition, while Spain is doing that without any worries. The difference in gas prices is around 30-40 cents between Portugal and Spain, and we still pay 23% of VAT on electricity, with reduced taxes of 6% and 13% for small outputs, which in some cases would only let a few items work, lol.

Watermelons and cherries prices vary, of course, between places, but from what I've seen when I go out shooping, cherries are around 6 euros per kilo and watermelons cost at around 9 euros per unit. Of course, much more expensive here as we earn half of what the Spanish earn.

Ironically, gasoline prices in Spain have now tied Portugal's which is historically an anomally as we used to have lower prices.

I believe that in the prices displayed in gas stations, the prices are similar but then there's the discount provided by the Spanish government in fuel prices, 20 cents I believe, plus fuel companies also provide a discount, at least this is what this report says. Thus, the final difference in cost is still around 30 cents.

Reducing VAT is not enough and the government needs to compensate the loss of revenues. I concur with Rufián and others that we need to tax the rich and the energy companies

Sure, that's another discussion, but at least he's reacting and doing something to help poorer and middle class families especially with energy costs.
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Velasco
andi
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« Reply #695 on: June 24, 2022, 12:21:28 AM »
« Edited: June 24, 2022, 12:24:58 AM by Velasco »

Reducing VAT is not enough and the government needs to compensate the loss of revenues. I concur with Rufián and others that we need to tax the rich and the energy companies

Sure, that's another discussion, but at least he's reacting and doing something to help poorer and middle class families especially with energy costs.

I think they are related problems, because the VAT reduction and the 20 cent subsidy have a negative impact in tax revenues. Such emergency measures are not sustainable in the long term,  for they create an imbalance. Common sense would suggest that, in order to have a more balanced budget, we need alternative revenue sources. On the other hand, energy companies are getting extraordinary benefits. Our conservarives only want to talk about lowering taxes, while Boris Johnson  is imposing a windfall tax on oil and gas

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/26/cost-of-living-crisis-uk-slaps-windfall-tax-on-oil-and-gas-giants.html
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Mike88
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« Reply #696 on: July 11, 2022, 06:43:03 AM »

GAD3 poll: PP reaches 36% of the votes, while Vox falls to 13% and UP bellow 10%.


Quote
GAD3: The PP shoots up after the Andalusians and extends its advantage over the PSOE to the largest since 2017
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Mike88
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« Reply #697 on: September 22, 2022, 05:44:40 AM »

It seems that a split in Vox is becoming inevitable. Macarena Olona could be on the verge of leaving the party.
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