🇬🇪 Georgia on my mind: Parliamentary elections on 26 October
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  🇬🇪 Georgia on my mind: Parliamentary elections on 26 October
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Poll
Question: Who would you support in a snap election?
#1
GD (government, catch-all, pro EU/NATO)
 
#2
UNM (major opposition, lib. cons., pro EU/NATO)
 
#3
EG (lib. conservative, pro EU/NATO)
 
#4
Girchi (libertarian, pro EU/NATO)
 
#5
APG (national conservative, pro Russia)
 
#6
Labor (conservative socialist, pro EU/NATO)
 
#7
Strategy (moderate, pro EU/NATO)
 
#8
Citizens (centrist, pro EU/NATO)
 
#9
Other
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 16

Author Topic: 🇬🇪 Georgia on my mind: Parliamentary elections on 26 October  (Read 7607 times)
Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #50 on: October 01, 2021, 06:23:48 PM »

Maybe I'm reading too much into it because it's late, but this strikes me as the face of a man who, for better or worse, is completely aware that his life is absurd and will one day make for a great biopic, and despite all the inconveniences and worse, he's basically at peace with it.
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Astatine
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« Reply #51 on: October 01, 2021, 07:29:40 PM »

Maybe I'm reading too much into it because it's late, but this strikes me as the face of a man who, for better or worse, is completely aware that his life is absurd and will one day make for a great biopic, and despite all the inconveniences and worse, he's basically at peace with it.
Oh definitely, he knows he has a place in history books... I don't agree with GD on anything and despise this authoritarian nutwhack party, but calling Saakashvili a "monkey" today fits well.

A little recap of some of the highlights in his eccentric career so far:






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Astatine
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« Reply #52 on: October 02, 2021, 01:02:39 PM »

Exit polls for the Tbilisi mayoral race:

Gorbi/Imedi TV (close to GD):

Kakha Kaladze - 51.3%
Nika Melia  - 34.6%
Giorgi Gakharia - 5.6%

Edison Research/Formula TV (somewhat independent):

Kakha Kaladze - 43%
Nika Melia - 39%
Giorgi Gakharia - 7%

Ipsos/Mtavari Arkhi (opposition aligned):

Nika Melia - 40.8%
Kakha Kaladze - 40.2%
Giorgi Gakharia - 8.7%

That means Kaladze will probably win, but narrowly. Oof, the protests are gonna be fun to watch.
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Astatine
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« Reply #53 on: October 03, 2021, 09:30:47 AM »

All 5 major cities (Tbilisi, Rustavi, Poti, Kutaisi, Batumi) will have runoffs for the Mayoral positions, between candidates of UNM and GD:

Tbilisi:
GD: 45 %
UNM: 34 %

Rustavi:
GD: 45 %
UNM: 44 %

Kutaisi:
UNM: 44 %
GD: 42 %

Poti:
GD: 48 %
UNM: 38 %

Batumi:
UNM: 43 %
GD: 41 %

In whole Georgia, GD has won the proportional vote for the city councils, but there will runoffs coinciding with the mayoral runoffs (85 % of all precincts counted):

GD: 47.6 %
UNM: 30.5 %
For Georgia: 7.6 %
Lelo: 2.6 %
EG: 1.7 %
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PSOL
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« Reply #54 on: October 03, 2021, 09:35:39 AM »

Damn, the man has seriously gained weight over the years.
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Astatine
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« Reply #55 on: October 30, 2021, 04:26:07 PM »

So, while Saakashvili is on hunger strike (maybe that was planned all along which is why he gained so much weight? Smiley ), runoffs took place today, and it looks like GD is sweeping all municipalities.

Tbilisi:
Kaladze (GD): 55.8 %
Melia (UNM): 42.2 %

Kutaisi:
Khakhaleishvili (GD): 52.3 %
Dekanoidze (UNM): 47.7 %

Batumi:
Chiqovani (GD): 50.8 %
Kirtadze (UNM): 49.2 %

Rustavi:
Lacabidze (GD): 54.4 %
Kirkitadze (UNM): 45.6 %

Poti:
Vacharadze (GD): 57.4 %
Ugulava (UNM): 42.6 %

With the results in Batumi and Kutaisi seeming especially close, it is quite likely there will be complaints by opposition leaders of riggery and fraud.
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Astatine
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« Reply #56 on: November 02, 2021, 05:52:31 PM »

A member of the electoral committee in a precinct of Kutaisi has alleged GD of pressuring her into allowing non-registered people to vote in the runoff elections. So far, this is the first "high profile" allegation in this election not solely based on rumors and hearsay.

GD won the Kutaisi mayoral election by 2,200 votes, therefore it is questionable whether this fraud really mattered a lot, but if it happened in several precincts, it could have swung the outcome of the election.

UNM called for protests in the next days, peaking next weekend in Tbilisi. The protests since the legislative elections have been going on for almost a year now.

Meanwhile, GD is confident in keeping control of the municipal councils. GD leader Kobakhidze announced that majority deals will be made in several municipalities, although it remains to be seen how true that is. The only major municipal council without overall control is Batumi (16 GD, 15 UNM, 2 FG, 1 Lelo, 1 Ind.) - Gakharia's party holds the balance of power, but shows signs of crumbling already (just like EG did after its municipal election success in 2017) as several members of FG that have just freshly been elected to municipal council announced to leave the party.

And on the top of it all, GD flirts with the idea with raising the parliamentary threshold back to 5 %, while Saakashvili still celebrates himself from prison and the minor opposition party Lelo announces to boycott Parliament again. Funny times, right?
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DavidB.
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« Reply #57 on: January 11, 2024, 05:02:15 AM »
« Edited: January 11, 2024, 06:52:53 AM by DavidB. »

On October 26, Georgia will hold its general election, the Central Election Commission announced yesterday. Perhaps the thread title could be changed to reflect this.

Before 2020, Georgia had an MMM (mixed member majoritarian) system with 77 proportional seats (5% threshold) in one district and 73 FPTP seats in single-member districts with two rounds. In 2020, the country switched to 120 proportional seats (1% threshold) and 30 FPTP seats in single-member districts with two rounds. The decrease of the height of the threshold and the increase of the number of proportional seats led to a much greater number of parties represented in parliament.

This year, the country will switch to a completely proportional system with all 150 MPs elected in one district - but the 5% threshold will come back. The electoral system will therefore essentially be the same as in Slovakia. Because of the fact that Georgia has a lot of parties below or around the threshold, there is also a similar uncertainty regarding the next parliament's composition as there is in Slovakia every time.

There are not many regional disparities regarding the distribution of electoral support in Georgia, which means Georgian Dream used to win almost all (2016) or literally all (2020) FPTP seats. On 40%-50% of the PR vote, this meant GD kept winning majorities in parliament. After this year's election, those days will be over: the likeliest scenario is that GD wins a plurality but will have to build a coalition with other parties. Perhaps in anticipation of the necessity to have GD-friendly "proxies" in the next parliament, GD had a right-wing splitoff named People's Power which still supports the government but takes a harder line on traditional values, NGOs etc.

Georgia has a lot of parties in the 'centrist, pro-EU, liberal, anti-corruption' lane - unless some of them merge, a fairly large percentage of the vote could end up below the threshold. Saakashvili's UNM has already built an alliance with the party Strategy Agmashenebeli, named Victory Platform, but polls indicate this hasn't added any additional votes to the bloc. Unless Saakashvili kisses UNM goodbye forever (and who knows this is sincere?), there will be a market for anti-GD parties that promise about the same things as UNM, but don't carry the baggage of UNM and Saakashvili. Merely a rebranding of UNM probably won't attract those voters. For Georgia and Lelo have already announced they will not enter any electoral alliance involving UNM.

From my point of view, the return of the 5% is a threshold is a pity (a lower threshold would be better), but the election is still going to be very interesting, as the necessity to build multi-party coalitions will probably lead to a profound change in the way politics is done in Georgia.
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Astatine
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« Reply #58 on: January 16, 2024, 05:01:20 AM »
« Edited: January 16, 2024, 08:06:39 AM by Astatine »

On October 26, Georgia will hold its general election, the Central Election Commission announced yesterday. Perhaps the thread title could be changed to reflect this.

Before 2020, Georgia had an MMM (mixed member majoritarian) system with 77 proportional seats (5% threshold) in one district and 73 FPTP seats in single-member districts with two rounds. In 2020, the country switched to 120 proportional seats (1% threshold) and 30 FPTP seats in single-member districts with two rounds. The decrease of the height of the threshold and the increase of the number of proportional seats led to a much greater number of parties represented in parliament.

This year, the country will switch to a completely proportional system with all 150 MPs elected in one district - but the 5% threshold will come back. The electoral system will therefore essentially be the same as in Slovakia. Because of the fact that Georgia has a lot of parties below or around the threshold, there is also a similar uncertainty regarding the next parliament's composition as there is in Slovakia every time.

There are not many regional disparities regarding the distribution of electoral support in Georgia, which means Georgian Dream used to win almost all (2016) or literally all (2020) FPTP seats. On 40%-50% of the PR vote, this meant GD kept winning majorities in parliament. After this year's election, those days will be over: the likeliest scenario is that GD wins a plurality but will have to build a coalition with other parties. Perhaps in anticipation of the necessity to have GD-friendly "proxies" in the next parliament, GD had a right-wing splitoff named People's Power which still supports the government but takes a harder line on traditional values, NGOs etc.

Georgia has a lot of parties in the 'centrist, pro-EU, liberal, anti-corruption' lane - unless some of them merge, a fairly large percentage of the vote could end up below the threshold. Saakashvili's UNM has already built an alliance with the party Strategy Agmashenebeli, named Victory Platform, but polls indicate this hasn't added any additional votes to the bloc. Unless Saakashvili kisses UNM goodbye forever (and who knows this is sincere?), there will be a market for anti-GD parties that promise about the same things as UNM, but don't carry the baggage of UNM and Saakashvili. Merely a rebranding of UNM probably won't attract those voters. For Georgia and Lelo have already announced they will not enter any electoral alliance involving UNM.

From my point of view, the return of the 5% is a threshold is a pity (a lower threshold would be better), but the election is still going to be very interesting, as the necessity to build multi-party coalitions will probably lead to a profound change in the way politics is done in Georgia.
Nika Gvaramia, former head of the opposition media outlet Mtavari Arkhi who was pardoned by Salome Zurabishvili in July, announced yesterday that he will return to politics and currently holds negotiations with split UNM MPs about a potential new political project.

In December, Nika Melia, former UNM leader, departed from the party after a month-long conflict with newly elected leader Levan Khabeishvili, who is a close confidante of former shady UNM officials like ex-PM Vano Merabishvili. Several local councillors also quit UNM, leaving the party in a state of disarray. After the "Strength is in Unity" UNM-led coalition won 36 seats in the past election, "unity" is no more and mere 20 members are left in the rump faction. Melia's party is due to be founded in February and might include former UNM hopefuls like ex-faction chairwoman Khatia Dekanoidze (who, btw, had a brief career as official in Ukraine together with Misha). Gvaramia might be part of this party. Remains to be seen if it will face the same as UNM split European Georgia, which faded into complete irrelevancy after an initial somewhat promising start.

Besides UNM and Strategy (VP), Girchi/More Freedom and Droa have announced the formation of an electoral alliance called Girchi/Droa which is vying for the youth vote.

The most recent poll had GD at 36.6%, VP at 21.5%, For Georgia at 8.8%, Lelo at 6.7% and Girchi/Droa at 5.0%, with all other parties failing the threshold, albeit narrowly in some cases (Labour at 4.7% and Ana Dolidze's For the People at 3.7%), with the following seat result:

 

GD would need a coalition partner or some For Georgia MPs that would split to ally with GD. This happened in some councils after the 2021 locals, when Gakharia's party showed its first cracks. Should also be noted that the new electoral law isn't fully proportional but gives a minor majority bonus to the largest party, which could be crucial in a result like forecasted by the most recent surveys.

Besides whatever the new Melia/Gvaramia project will be, the President remains a bit of a wildcard. Her approvals surged after she became increasingly distant from GD that even attempted to impeach her. Zurabishvili would have to resign early to run in the parliamentary elections, but there's at least rumors she might play a role and she herself did not fully deny that she could remain in politics for the sake of Georgia's European future. If not with an own party, Gakharia might be the closest match as he clearly occupies the "not UNM/opposition, but not GD anymore" gap right now.

Will be a fun year. Presidential elections will also take place btw, either in Summer (should Salome resign), or in Winter (after the parliamentary elections). The President will be elected by an electoral college of 300 members (150 MPs, 21 members of the Adjaran Supreme Council, 21 members of the Abkhaz Supreme Council, 108 local delegates). Unless the opposition wins the parliamentary elections by a comfortable margin, a GD backed President seems likely, though they'd be quite powerless anyway. My bets would be on Shalva Papuashvili, incumbent Speaker, who at least pretends to sound somewhat moderate internationally compared to known ranters Kobakhidze & Gharibashvili.
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warandwar
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« Reply #59 on: January 16, 2024, 05:04:10 PM »

Thanks for this! Two questions:

1) why did Georgia change their electoral law in the first place? Wouldn't Georgia Dream want to keep a system that benefited them?

2) My assumption is that the Abkhaz Supreme Council is an appointed body of do nothing hacks from the ruling party. Is that true? Does it have any real responsibilities post 2008? Why are they represented in the electoral college but not in set aside seats in the parliament?
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Astatine
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« Reply #60 on: January 16, 2024, 05:46:33 PM »
« Edited: January 16, 2024, 05:53:54 PM by Astatine »

Thanks for this! Two questions:

1) why did Georgia change their electoral law in the first place? Wouldn't Georgia Dream want to keep a system that benefited them?

2) My assumption is that the Abkhaz Supreme Council is an appointed body of do nothing hacks from the ruling party. Is that true? Does it have any real responsibilities post 2008? Why are they represented in the electoral college but not in set aside seats in the parliament?

1) In 2019, there were massive protests against the GD government that were sparked by a Russian MP chairing an interparliamentary Christian Orthodox assembly from the Speaker's seat (in Russian), that eventually led to demands to change the electoral system. Ivanishvili and GD calculate their steps very carefully and know that anything seeming to much like a power grab could immediately backfire.

A strategy GD regularly uses is to compare proposed bills to other Western countries in their propaganda machines (the Foreign Agent Bill in March being inspired by the American FARA, the switch to the electoral college in presidential elections being based on the German system, a 5 % threshold being in common in many other countries etc.). If this doesn't work, they will find a boogeyman. For this term, it's the "People's Power" faction, which also submitted the Foreign Agents Bill in Parliament. But even that didn't work out, so GD dropped the proposed bill and now slowly tries to implement aspects of what they originally intended to do in different pieces of legislation. Every overstep could very well swing public opinion against them.

They thus accepted some demands such as a reduction of the number of constituencies and 1 % threshold for 2020, but backtracked on some initially made promises (fully proportional system by 2020). What did they have to lose? They had a constitutional majority in 2016-2020 and left their mark, and even with a reduced majority they still continued to rule.
The loss of constituency seats in 2024 is partially compensated by raising the threshold to 5 % - Which GD promised not to do, btw.
With the current electoral law, GD might very well keep its absolute majority with a way worse result, using beforementioned poll with Girchi/Droa at 4.9 instead of 5.0 %:



The current electoral also has a minor majority bonus: The ideal seat share is rounded down to the integer number, all seats are added and everything remaining below 150 goes to the largest party. The more parties enter Parliament, the bigger could the majority bonus be in the end.

Originally, GD basically planned to grant all votes below the threshold to the largest party, which would've looked like... this:



2.) Abkhazia and Adjara are both autonomous republic within Georgia. They are essentially treated the same way de iure, and since Georgia doesn't exercise any control over Abkhazia, it has a govt.-in-exile and legislative-in-exile. The electoral college is based on the German system (50 % MPs, 50 % regional delegates - Since Georgia is not a federal state, the legislatures of the autonomous republics and local councils share the remaining members).

According to its website (and comparison with Georgian Wikipedia), the Supreme Councillors elected in 1990 still seem to be serving their mandates (they all are old and some are still officially part of Gamzakhurdia's "Round Table" faction - a party that dissolved in the early 90s, while some are GD members). Not sure how vacancies are being dealt with, but they are essentially paid by the govt. and hence are safe votes in favor of whomever GD nominates.
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #61 on: January 24, 2024, 08:41:27 AM »

how is the monarchist movement going?
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #62 on: January 25, 2024, 07:32:32 AM »


Why do you ask this in every European election thread?

Monarchy is cringe.
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UWS
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« Reply #63 on: January 25, 2024, 07:42:03 PM »

I guess the Ukraine War is the top issue of the elections2
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Astatine
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« Reply #64 on: January 29, 2024, 12:22:51 PM »

I guess the Ukraine War is the top issue of the elections2

No (according to the most recent poll, multiple options could be chosen):

    Unemployment - 36%
    Poverty - 36%
    Rising prices - 34%
    Occupied Territories - 26%
    Immigration - 19%
    Education - 17%
    Pensions - 17%
    illegal drug use - 17%
    Health Care - 15%
    Russian migration to Georgia - 11%
    Crime - 9%
    Corruption - 8%
    EU membership - 8%
    War in Ukraine - 7%
    Movement in Tbilisi - 4%
    Free food at school - 4%
    Political polaritasia - 4%
    Environmental protection problems - 3%
    Accommodation - 3%

(Source: https://formulanews.ge/News/103920)

Today, PM Irakli Garibashvili announced his resignation. He will switch positions with GD party chairman Irakli Kobakhidze. Kobakhidze is a very close confidante of Bidzina Ivanishvili and even harsher in his rhetorics than Garibashvili.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #65 on: January 29, 2024, 12:46:27 PM »

ემიგრაცია is emigration (so not immigration) at 19%. პოლარიცაზია should be polarization at 4%.

I think გადაადგილება თბილისში ("movement in Tbilisi") is about mobility/infrastructural issues within Tbilisi.
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Astatine
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« Reply #66 on: January 29, 2024, 01:01:58 PM »

ემიგრაცია is emigration (so not immigration) at 19%. პოლარიცაზია should be polarization at 4%.

I think გადაადგილება თბილისში ("movement in Tbilisi") is about mobility/infrastructural issues within Tbilisi.
Thanks, just copied the Google webpage translator results without checking word for word Cheesy
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Astatine
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« Reply #67 on: February 06, 2024, 01:27:12 PM »

Salome Zurabishvili today had her final address to Parliament as President. She lambasted GD, calling their rule a "one-party, one-person, vertical model" while naming Ivanishvili "the one who actually runs the country". She also criticized PM nominee Kobakhidze for allowing Gavrilov's Night to happen in 2019 and offered to form a common platform for Europe, in which political actors and civil society organizations could participate. GD obviously called her out for that, while UNM, SB, Citizens and Lelo are open to work under such agreement.

She definitely doesn't seem like someone whose political career is ending now. Her transformation from a Misha ally to a vocal Misha critic, becoming a papertiger for GD's interests and now a somewhat independent leader is... remarkable, but it remains to be seen what her true intentions are. While many opposition figures generally agree with her analysis and have grown warmer to her in recent times, she is still somewhat distrusted among them.
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Astatine
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« Reply #68 on: March 11, 2024, 02:24:38 PM »

Nika Gvaramia and Nika Melia presented their new party today, called "Akhali" (New). Remains to be seen what their platform will be.

While parallels might be drawn to EG - once hopeful UNM split - that fell into disarray, it should be noted that the current UNM leadership is *really* disliked, even among opposition supporters. And political attitudes since 2017 have also shifted somewhat, Misha's increasing derangement post return doesn't help his party at all.
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« Reply #69 on: March 25, 2024, 05:20:40 PM »

"Georgia could soon introduce tough new rules clamping down on LGBTQ+ rights and barring public celebrations of same-sex relationships, if a new draft bill introduced by the country’s ruling party is passed.

The draft legislation, set out by the governing Georgian Dream party on Monday, aims to prohibit people from changing their gender, as well as outlaw same-sex couples from adopting children.

According to Georgian Dream’s executive chair Mamuka Mdinaradze, Georgia’s constitution should be amended to allow marriage only of “a union of a single genetic male and a single genetic female.”

In an echo of anti-LGBTQ+ “propaganda” laws introduced in Russia and decried by human rights defenders, the proposal would also ban education and public gatherings it describes as popularizing “same-sex family or intimate relationships,” as well as “incest.”

However, Mdinaradze said the move will “protect family values and minors.” He did not rule out that holding a Pride parade or displaying an LGBTQ+ flag could be in violation of the bill."

"The government has recently increased funding to Georgian Orthodox Church. The proposed bill is widely perceived as an attempt by Georgian Dream to appease the influential church and to secure a fourth term in office when the country heads to the polls in October to elect a new parliament."

https://www.politico.eu/article/georgia-ban-change-gender-new-anti-lgbtq-law-tbilisi/
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« Reply #70 on: March 26, 2024, 06:23:06 AM »

Depressing development, and one which is unlikely to see the sort of pushback which forced the Foreign Agents Law to be dropped last year. The EU should be extremely vocal about this, and leave the population in no doubt where adoption of this law would leave their accession aspirations.
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Astatine
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« Reply #71 on: March 26, 2024, 02:05:34 PM »

"Georgia could soon introduce tough new rules clamping down on LGBTQ+ rights and barring public celebrations of same-sex relationships, if a new draft bill introduced by the country’s ruling party is passed.

[...]
In the way it's currently proposed, this bill is likely going nowhere for now. GD aims to implement it as "constitutional law", which are not part of the Constitution itself but of constitutional rank. For constitutional amendments or constitutional laws to pass, either a 3/4 majority (113 votes) is required, or two votes in two parliamentary terms with a 2/3 majority (100 votes).

GD+People's Power are at 84 now, add the European Socialists which are basically always voting with GD and you're at 88, but beyond, the opposition is a quite solid bloc even with defectors happening occasionally (which are rumored to be paid by GD). But swinging 12 votes seems essentially impossible for now, and even in that case, GD would need to win 2/3 of the seats in October - Not impossible, but rather unlikely unless the opposition really implodes. GD representatives themselves know it won't pass in the current term.

Likely just an electoral game to mobilize conservative voters against the "liberal radical opposition", as GD frames it.
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