UK local by-elections, 2024
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Author Topic: UK local by-elections, 2024  (Read 2485 times)
MaxQue
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« Reply #50 on: February 24, 2024, 11:32:38 AM »

A cousin of "Canada 1993" was "Quebec 2011" federally, i.e. nobody would have guessed that Ahuntsic would have been one of the 4 Bloc Quebecois survivors...

Of those 4 seats, Richelieu is the only one held by the Bloc at every election since 1993.
Matane did vote for the Liberals in 2015.
Ahuntsic was Liberal held from 1997 to 2006 and since 2015.
Arthabaska was PC held from 1997 to 2004 and Conservative since 2015 (well, the MP is now an Independent in protest of Poilievre's leadership).
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Vosem
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« Reply #51 on: February 24, 2024, 03:20:28 PM »

A cousin of "Canada 1993" was "Quebec 2011" federally, i.e. nobody would have guessed that Ahuntsic would have been one of the 4 Bloc Quebecois survivors...

Of those 4 seats, Richelieu is the only one held by the Bloc at every election since 1993.
Matane did vote for the Liberals in 2015.
Ahuntsic was Liberal held from 1997 to 2006 and since 2015.
Arthabaska was PC held from 1997 to 2004 and Conservative since 2015 (well, the MP is now an Independent in protest of Poilievre's leadership).

The last three consecutive MPs from Richmond--Arthabaska -- Andre Bachand, Andre Bellavance, and Alain Rayes -- all left their parties when they became too extreme, which isn't an unheard of thing in Canadian politics to be sure, but three in a row from the same seat is kind of impressive.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #52 on: February 24, 2024, 03:27:00 PM »

Does a strong association with the asbestos industry lead to places developing the weirdest possible political histories? Consider also Rochdale.
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Vosem
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« Reply #53 on: February 24, 2024, 03:37:14 PM »

Does a strong association with the asbestos industry lead to places developing the weirdest possible political histories? Consider also Rochdale.

Sverdlovsk Oblast's very strong favorite son effect for Yeltsin also feels appropriate to mention.
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YL
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« Reply #54 on: February 29, 2024, 02:47:36 AM »
« Edited: March 01, 2024, 07:11:02 AM by YL »

Thursday 29 February

Andrew Teale's preview (after the Parliamentary Special)

East Riding of Yorkshire; Minster & Woodmansley

Lib Dem 1438 (50.7%, +8.6)
Con 706 (24.9%, -1.9)
Lab 495 (17.4%, -9.4)
Green 198 (7.0%, new)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lib Dem hold

East Riding of Yorkshire; Tranby

Lib Dem 958 (55.3%, +4.4)
Lab 408 (23.6%, +2.7)
Con 268 (15.5%, -4.2)
Green 97 (5.6%, -2.9)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lib Dem hold

Great Yarmouth; Central & Northgate

Lab 482 (52.6%, +6.2)
Con 296 (32.3%, +7.7)
Lib Dem 139 (15.2%, +3.4)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lab hold

Horsham; Henfield

Green 668 (44.2%, +18.8
Con 569 (37.7%, +13.0)
Lab 215 (14.2%, -5.2)
Lib Dem 59 (3.9%, -2.4)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Green gain from Ind; ward now 1 Green, 1 Con

Horsham; Southwater North

Con 618 (49.0%, +11.1)
Lib Dem 388 (30.8%, -13.0)
Green 162 (12.9%, +3.9)
Lab 92 (7.3%, -2.0)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Con gain from Lib Dem; ward now 1 Lib Dem, 1 Con
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #55 on: March 01, 2024, 11:54:37 AM »

Surprisingly strong Tory result - and unexpected gain - in one of the Horsham contests.

(which was apparently, and really not as surprisingly, partly motivated by Nimbyism)
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Torrain
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« Reply #56 on: March 03, 2024, 10:07:54 AM »

We've got an interesting by-election coming up in Glasgow's West End this week, trigged by the death of Labour councillor Hanzala Malik earlier this year. It's a Green Party ward, so this could be the first time the Scottish Greens ever gain a council seat via byelection. SNP came in second in 2022, Labour in third.

The lead Green candidate in normal elections is a well-respected local councillor, so curious to see how they fare without her personal vote. They'll probably still win, but interesting to see whether Labour can tighten the margin (and try for second place) - or whether Glasgow Uni's presence in the ward means they'll lose a few points over certain Middle East issues.
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