UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[oldtimer]

Kate Green is now Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, so Stretford & Urmston is officially vacant and the by-election can be on 15 December as suggested.

And indeed it will be.  Deadline for nominations is 4pm on Tuesday 22nd.

A contender for the most boring by-election of this Parliament?

I think all by-elections of that Parliament will be boring.

Can you consider any by-election outside of Scotland not been won by Labour or the LD ?

[oldtimer]

This was probably explained here, but I didn't find it, what is ULEZ?

It's basically a car tax.

[oldtimer]

Any hints of what's happening in Boris former seat?

Just announced turnout of 46.23%, or down 17.3% from the GE. ~31 to 32K votes.

Both parties are talking cautiously favorably, which is the usual By-Election lines when you aren't on track for a landslide like in S&F apparently.

So apparently the byelections tonight are going as expected.
Somerton the largest tory defeat, Uxbridge the closest contest due to ULEZ.

[oldtimer]

This was probably explained here, but I didn't find it, what is ULEZ?

Ultra Low Emissions Zone: basically charges for using the more polluting vehicles, especially older cars.  It already exists in inner London, but there are plans to extend it to the whole of Greater London, including this constituency.

Ah right. I understand it. Does it work in inner London? And from what I understood, this is very unpopular in the rest of Greater London.

Outer London is a bit Jeremy Clarkson when it comes to cars, speak of the devil London car traffic hasn't changed that much since they did a Top Gear Cross-London race years ago.

[oldtimer]

Uxbridge is actually a helpful outlier because the Tories will now obsess over a niche issue which never usually works well for them.

When unusual by-election results occur, it's usually a warning about a specific policy causing a lot of political pain.

George Galloway was a warning that Labour had specific trouble with foreign policy.

Conservatives lost in Richmond Park in 2016, and I saw it as a warning that Theresa May was going to have trouble with Brexit.

Labour losing Uxbridge is in my mind a similar warning that Labour will have trouble with green policies and would need to revise them.

At the very least Khan will have to ditch the ULEZ plans, because it clearly cost Labour the seat.

[oldtimer]

I don't understand how in the UK the liberal democrats can pull of astounding flips in by-elections then totaly choke and loose in general elections. Why can't they translate this success to something meaningful ?. Why can't they replicate their by-election machine in general elections ?

By-elections are an excellent opportunity to cast a protest vote.

Usually it's the LD, as they are in opposition and have no hope to be in government, that benefit as their least offensive to most voters (as long as they don't remember the Cameron-Clegg coalition).

[oldtimer]

Worth noting ofc that while the Mayor/TFL have had funding issues they’re different to local councils mucking around with traffic closures- the mayor has a very specific set of powers around transport and air pollution, and the office has successfully introduced the congestion charge and inner London ULEZ.

The issue is really the lack of funding for the scrappage scheme but even those who are eligible have faced issues…

I think I mentioned it much earlier in this thread but this will not bode well for the big decisions national governments need to make about roads, cars and taxation- electric vehicles are largely exempt from our various revenue/taxes but everyone wants to pretend that there isn’t a looming black hole.

Boris has left a big timebomb for the next government, his 2030 car ban.

As usual Boris set an unrealistic overoptimistic target on a whim, that will cause trouble when time comes.

But it is arriving just in time to potencially screw the incoming Labour government, just like the 2030 nitrogen target crippled the Dutch government.

[oldtimer]

Personally I think in the current environment even North Shropshire would be a hold for the Lib Dems. As people like Tim Farron, Norman Lamb proved 2015-19 the Lib Dems can overcome the Conservative bent of a seat with a good local profile even with strong Pro-Tory headwinds - and those don’t exist now. Christchurch ‘97 is the obvious counter to this, but it was a long time ago with an arguably more popular Tory party.

In the current environment even Sunak could lose his own seat.

My guess is that as long as the LD ignore or downplay the Brexit issue, a lot of their traditional liberal rural areas would return to them.

[oldtimer]

On the above people still get angry as they say they were ‘told’ to buy diesel…

Fluorescent lights too, instead of Led lights.

Governments have not been very good at picking products.

[oldtimer]

Bloody hell. What a result. I was vaguely expecting a Labour win, but not by this much.

SNP and Conservatives go hand in hand these past 20 years.

They are part of the nationalist wave in the UK, which is currently receding.

[oldtimer]

Bloody hell. What a result. I was vaguely expecting a Labour win, but not by this much.

SNP and Conservatives go hand in hand these past 20 years.

They are part of the nationalist wave in the UK, which is currently receding.

It's not like Labour isn't nationalist though, they're more openly patriotic and perhaps even nationalist than most other European PES parties.

So to see this and the Tories' demise as part of a receding "nationalist wave" is pretty dim.

The rise of the SNP coincided with the rise of the Conservatives+UKIP vote in England and Wales, and Sinn Fein in Ireland.

Bad economic conditions from the late 2000's onwards made people turn to the extremes until now.

Now it's the extremes that take the blame for the economic mess, because they where in charge for so long.

[oldtimer]

I had a chippy tea recently for the first time in a year or so.

Even in that time, the price increase has been pretty hefty.

I think it's due to Electricity, Gas costs, Rent costs, and resistance to price cutting.  

What goes up usually never comes down with prices.

[oldtimer]

As a historical point, I'm surprised the Wilson government had such a horror run of by elections-does that mean they were always going to lose 1970?

Yes they where.

The story of the 70's elections (1970,1974, much less of 1979) was Enoch Powell swinging it to Conservatives in 1970 and to Labour in 1974.

He was a proto-Farage that could destroy Governments he hated with his Populism, over Europe and Immigration.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390548721243459584
Oof. I realize that this isn't necessarily all Starmer's fault like it's going to be painted as, but still. Not good.

(also, I suppose any other leader wouldn't have been 20 points ahead)

Amazing how good things looked for the Tories just 2 and a half years ago

And the Newspaper Headlines: "Boris to live forever", actually Boris to outlast Thatcher.

For someone who studied Greek Classics like Boris, he should have realised his Hybris and the Divine Punishment that follows it.

[oldtimer]

It’s been briefed overnight that the Tories are fine because ‘Starmer isn’t Blair so it won’t be 1997’(the fun counter is that 2024 could end up in political memory as being worse!) and that voters really want tax cuts and flights to Rwanda. What a strange party.

Well they are correct, in 1997 the economy was booming which probably reduced Labour's victory margin.

This time the British economy is crap, and has been since about the beginning of this century.

So it ought to be worse than 1997 for them.

[oldtimer]

As a historical point, I'm surprised the Wilson government had such a horror run of by elections-does that mean they were always going to lose 1970?

Yes they where.

The story of the 70's elections (1970,1974, much less of 1979) was Enoch Powell swinging it to Conservatives in 1970 and to Labour in 1974.

He was a proto-Farage that could destroy Governments he hated with his Populism, over Europe and Immigration.

Yeah you can see how big the swings were in the 1970 Election in this clip . Like they didn’t have exit polls in those days but they were able to tell very early on that Labour was gonna lose

You could see them talking about the big swings in the Midlands in both 1970 and the 1974 broadcast, that's Enoch Powell's territory.

Basically 1970 was Powell denouncing Labour as a pro-immigrant party since the "Rivers of Blood" and said vote Tory.

In 1974 he denounced Ted Heath as a pro-european French Poodle and said vote Labour.

The 1979 GE was lost when Dennis Healey went to the IMF, the move was unpopular and the IMF of course messed up.

In all 3 the winner was predetermined years before, only the victory margin was in question.

[oldtimer]

Thank you, that makes a great deal of sense.

The 3 day week and the Winter of Discontent where the cherries on the top.

In the early 1970's the Conservatives where split in fierce internal fighting over Eurore (as usual), Labour took advantage of that to promise a Referendum (sounds familiar?) :

https://www.nytimes.com/1974/02/24/archives/enoch-powell-a-key-tory-suggests-foes-of-market-should-vote-for.html

"In a move that angered Conservative party leaders in this decisive week of the election campaign, Enoch Powell, the party's controversial maverick, suggested today that Britons opposed to the Common Market should vote for the Labor party on Thursday."

The 1979 GE was determined here:

It was a national humiliation, and a confession by the Labour Government then that they couldn't Govern.
The IMF Austerity made a mess, and led to fierce Labour internal fighting and to the Winter of Discontent.

[oldtimer]

Hazel Grove?

How bad is... it... exactly?

By-election bad:

https://www.politico.eu/article/westminster-honey-trap-scandal-uk-tory-mp-admits-sharing-numbers/

A quick summary from what I can understand:
He was forced out of fear to share info about his colleagues to a guy that had compromising things on him.

The Conservative Party reply (what can they say? ) :

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/1775882749921911191