UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Wiswylfen]

It’s a pretty safe Tory seat - i.e majority over 20,000 since 2015. The closest it’s been was a 2,000 vote majority over the Lib Dems in 1997. Labour are typically in second place, since 2015 at least, but the centre-left vote gets pretty badly split.

There is a world where the Conservatives lose the seat, but based on the past few cycles, the Lib Dems would have to stand back, Labour would have to run a strong candidate, and there would have to be significant apathy amongst Conservative voters.

Labour, and Starmer, will most likely be focusing their fire (and funds) on Wakefield at the time, but if they were to win here, it would be quite significant.

It’s actually numerically pretty close to North Shropshire, the seat of Owen Paterson that fell to the Lib Dems (majority of 2,000 in 1997, majority north of 20K over the past decade). Time will tell whether that wild result could be replicated here.

I think this is another of the sort of seat where Labour may have been second in recent elections, but they can't win, will know this, and will leave it to the Lib Dems, especially as Labour will focus on Wakefield.

That’s fair - my assumption was that given Labour’s better performance here recently they might be the natural fire, but letting the Lib Dems fight here while they go for Wakefield is probably a more sound strategy for both parties (and allow both time and resources to be used more effectively - fighting one by-election each while the Conservatives burn time and money defending both).

It is after all the sort of rural agricultural seat that used to flirt with the Lib Dems, before they receded into their current state.

Not that it was the rural agricultural areas in those rural agricultural seats that used to flirt with the Lib Dems.

[Wiswylfen]

The thing to note about Selby & Ainsty is that the new Selby-area constituency presently proposed by the Boundary Commission would be a lot more favourable to Labour: Tadcaster and the affluent villages to it's North West are replaced by a dense cluster of ex-mining villages near Leeds. So in the event of a by-election it would make obvious sense to really go for it; either to get an incumbent or some extra local momentum.

I hadn't realised quite how favourable to Labour those villages still are, given how full they are with the newbuilds that have proven poisonous to us in so many similar places.

[Wiswylfen]

Whats the calculus on who should challenge in Bedfordshire?

It seems to flip back and forth between Labour and the Lib Dems - presumably Starmer would leave it to Davey, and focus on the other two, especially given what an uphill fight it would be?

If the Lib Dems want to fight it, I imagine Labour will leave them be. The only way Labour are winning that is if the Lib Dems take a chunk out of the Tory vote, in which case they’re almost certainly taking a chunk out of Labour’s vote as well. Better to focus resources and expectations management on Reading West/Selby and Ainsty.

The boundary changes are a factor there too, not because the new Mid Beds looks winnable for Labour but because a small bit of the old one goes into the new cross-county Hitchin constituency, which might be.  So Labour may want to put some effort in in that bit.

Meanwhile Reading West is in some ways the opposite situation to Selby & Ainsty: the current seat should be an easy gain in a by-election but the boundary changes take Labour's best bits out and replace them with some very rich and usually Tory (though some of it voted Lib Dem or Green earlier this month) Berkshire countryside (and rename it "Mid Berkshire", not that it's in the middle of the county or anything) which makes it a real long shot.  So if Labour win a by-election there the MP may not be an MP for very long.

In current conditions I think an incumbent elected at a by-election would stand a good chance of holding it at the next GE.

[Wiswylfen]

Within more urbanized regions, there were also sectarian patterns to the votes of both parties, though this has faded quite rapidly in recent years.

ironically with the cultural Catholics/gene pool Catholics of Irish descent voting for the Scottish nationalists

Other way round: Catholics tended to be Labour, Protestants tended to be SNP.

[Wiswylfen]

The town is right on the historic boundary between Warwickshire and Staffordshire, which meant that parts of it went into two separate county divisions, one in each county.  

SNIP

And in traditional fashion, the roots of much of this go all the way back to pre-Norman times. Tamworth became a place on the map because it was the center of royal power for the various Mercian kingdoms in what is now the West Midlands. This of course made it a target for various Scandinavian raids and extortions, that eventually diminished the town and kingdom.

 When Wessex established governance over the region, they specifically carved up the Tamworth region between the precursors to Warwickshire and Staffordshire. The was no "Tamworthshire." Historians have theorized a very modern reason for this: gerrymandering away the towns political relevance and transferring that power to other areas in the West. Divided, Tamworth could not utilize it's Mercian legacy to centralize discontent and serve as the core for projects to revive Mercia.

And it worked. The division shifted centers of control to the point Tamworth is not in the Domesday Book.

Well: Mercia was a kingdom; this gerrymandering extended beyond Tamworth to the whole of Mercia; and London and Winchester aren't in Domesday either.

[Wiswylfen]

In funny news a focus group found someone who liked the Labour ppc after hearing about the CCHQ attack story about him being a greenpeace campaigner- its really baffling how slow Westminster is to wake up the fact that people of all political stripes care about the Environment!

See also: the bizarre attempts to pretend that the obsessions of (a section of) the Outer London middle class are those of the so-called 'Red Wall'.

[Wiswylfen]

Also, I think everyone should perhaps prepare for the Tamworth election in two weeks to potentially "break the swingometer." Selby was itself the second largest swing from Tory to Labour ever in a by-election, with a 23.5 point two-party swing or 47.5 point change. This falls behind the 1994 Dudley West by-election,  with a 29 point swing or 58 point direct change.

Tamworth has a larger Tory majority than Selby, the circumstances surrounding it are better for Labour,  and we just got even more confirmation last night that Tamworth viscerally wants the Tories gone. It's not hard to imagine Dudley West getting surpassed.

My prediction, made this morning, is as follows:

54 LAB
33 CON
04 REF
03 LDM
03 GRN
03 OTH

[Wiswylfen]

My prediction, made this morning, is as follows:

54 LAB
33 CON
04 REF
03 LDM
03 GRN
03 OTH

Given Reform's electoral record so far, I've a measured skepticism about them outpolling even a tactically marginalized LDM/GRN.  Or certainly not at a 4% level...

That I have them in third should be taken more as due to the weakness of the Lib Dems (and Greens) than the strength of Reform. I don’t believe the polls showing them on 8% for a second, of course, but 4% in a by-election in Tamworth seems very plausible.

[Wiswylfen]

My prediction, made this morning, is as follows:

54 LAB
33 CON
04 REF
03 LDM
03 GRN
03 OTH

Given Reform's electoral record so far, I've a measured skepticism about them outpolling even a tactically marginalized LDM/GRN.  Or certainly not at a 4% level...

They did get 6% in Old Bexley & Sidcup and Tamworth is likely to be relatively favourable territory for them.  If I actually believed Reform UK's polling I'd be predicting them to get 10%.

As for the Lib Dems and Greens, there's no evidence that either party is taking much interest and it is not an obvious hotbed of natural support for them.  So in fact, once you factor in the inevitable squeeze, I suspect that 6% for the two combined is on the high side; in Uxbridge & South Ruislip the combined Green and Lib Dem total wouldn't have saved the deposit.

Though even OB&S is old hat by now; and it was also something of a "showcase race" for Reform UK.  Plus I realize that Lib Dem & Green are likely deposit-losers, but they're also likelier generic dead-cat-bouncers--though I could allow the for the possibility of "anti-Pincher Tory" dead-cat bouncing from the other end.  (And I did only say "measured skepticism", mainly because of how consistently Reform's underpolled expectations, as opposed to outright skepticism.)

Given that I think they’re only going to get 4% in a by-election in a constituency that in 2010 gave UKIP 5% and in 2005 them and Veritas a combined 6%, when the bogus polls have had them as high as 10% in the last two months, I’m not quite sure how you’re interpreting that as some sort of prediction of great support.

Tamworth is the sort of seat where the Lib Dems do very poorly indeed and given the circumstances I don’t see why they and the Greens won’t be squeezed. But regardless the main point of my prediction was that I believe that Tamworth is going to see Labour win a clear victory, possibly in the range of a 20-point majority, whereas so many others are predicting that it’ll be narrow and the Conservatives may even keep the seat.

[Wiswylfen]

Also, I think everyone should perhaps prepare for the Tamworth election in two weeks to potentially "break the swingometer." Selby was itself the second largest swing from Tory to Labour ever in a by-election, with a 23.5 point two-party swing or 47.5 point change. This falls behind the 1994 Dudley West by-election,  with a 29 point swing or 58 point direct change.

Tamworth has a larger Tory majority than Selby, the circumstances surrounding it are better for Labour,  and we just got even more confirmation last night that Tamworth viscerally wants the Tories gone. It's not hard to imagine Dudley West getting surpassed.

My prediction, made this morning, is as follows:

54 LAB
33 CON
04 REF
03 LDM
03 GRN
03 OTH

I will now accept my accolades.

[Wiswylfen]

Not the Conservative candidate (yet).

[Wiswylfen]

I actually thought Labour would win this by a bit more - doesn't point to these 'swingy' ex-marginals swinging hard back to Labour. If the swing in the national polls does indeed come to pass, we may well need to get used to a very unfamiliar looking map.

I think they'll take a 23% swing lol

My point was not to do down the Labour performance (not at all! It is clearly a spectacular result) - it was purely about the way a large Labour swing in a general election will present itself. It may be that the shifts we saw in 2019 are more permanent than many expected.

I doubt it. A large part of the different result seems to be down to the town and surrounding area changing. A lot more affluent commuters than twenty or thirty years ago.

I actually thought Labour would win this by a bit more - doesn't point to these 'swingy' ex-marginals swinging hard back to Labour. If the swing in the national polls does indeed come to pass, we may well need to get used to a very unfamiliar looking map.

I think they'll take a 23% swing lol

My point was not to do down the Labour performance (not at all! It is clearly a spectacular result) - it was purely about the way a large Labour swing in a general election will present itself. It may be that the shifts we saw in 2019 are more permanent than many expected.

There's always a floor for each party meaning hig swimgs won't be uniform,  and i expect that Brexit voters have changed what the Tory foor is in certain former Labour safe seats or marginals. Is that what you're getting at?

Brexit is almost irrelevant at this point. The Tory floor has changed in those 'certain former Labour safe seats' mainly because of consolidation with the collapse of the Lib Dems—but try explaining that to any of the 'Red Wall' people. You can see the same process in reverse in much of southern England.

[Wiswylfen]

I actually thought Labour would win this by a bit more - doesn't point to these 'swingy' ex-marginals swinging hard back to Labour. If the swing in the national polls does indeed come to pass, we may well need to get used to a very unfamiliar looking map.

I think they'll take a 23% swing lol

My point was not to do down the Labour performance (not at all! It is clearly a spectacular result) - it was purely about the way a large Labour swing in a general election will present itself. It may be that the shifts we saw in 2019 are more permanent than many expected.

There's always a floor for each party meaning hig swimgs won't be uniform,  and i expect that Brexit voters have changed what the Tory foor is in certain former Labour safe seats or marginals. Is that what you're getting at?

Pretty much - the size of the swing in the polls has led many (including myself) to conclude that Labour will see a bigger swing back in their favour in Brexit-voting marginals and ex-marginals, whilst possibly falling short in a place like Rushcliffe, a remain voting area which has recently become semi-marginal.

This result (not to over-extrapolate!) may indicate that the swing at the next GE is going to be more uniform than expectations.

I don't know what you're talking about. In July we saw a swing of five points in an affluent suburban London seat and a swing of more than twenty in a Brexit-voting Red Wall seat.

[Wiswylfen]

Another Labour gain in a post-industrial, rural Red Wall seat.

[Wiswylfen]

I actually thought Labour would win this by a bit more - doesn't point to these 'swingy' ex-marginals swinging hard back to Labour. If the swing in the national polls does indeed come to pass, we may well need to get used to a very unfamiliar looking map.

I think they'll take a 23% swing lol

My point was not to do down the Labour performance (not at all! It is clearly a spectacular result) - it was purely about the way a large Labour swing in a general election will present itself. It may be that the shifts we saw in 2019 are more permanent than many expected.

There's always a floor for each party meaning hig swimgs won't be uniform,  and i expect that Brexit voters have changed what the Tory foor is in certain former Labour safe seats or marginals. Is that what you're getting at?

Pretty much - the size of the swing in the polls has led many (including myself) to conclude that Labour will see a bigger swing back in their favour in Brexit-voting marginals and ex-marginals, whilst possibly falling short in a place like Rushcliffe, a remain voting area which has recently become semi-marginal.

This result (not to over-extrapolate!) may indicate that the swing at the next GE is going to be more uniform than expectations.

I don't know what you're talking about. In July we saw a swing of five points in an affluent suburban London seat and a swing of more than twenty in a Brexit-voting Red Wall seat.

Uxbridge was more down to ULEZ/Sadiq backlash I thought?

Yes, the metropolitan elite love their luxury beliefs. They don't understand the concerns of real people in places like Selby.

[Wiswylfen]

It’s OK, people, you’re allowed to call it junk. Though maybe I’m just a little mad about having sent him ward results and him completely ignoring them resulting in wards that are off by around thirty points.

[Wiswylfen]

My estimates from last night: Bourne Vale Conservative majority of at least ten points, probably significantly more than that; Mease Valley likewise; Shenstone ~30; and Little Aston and Stonnall ~20-25. Didn't bother with the other rural wards. The extent to which these are monolithically Tory cannot be emphasised enough. Look at the results in the 2015 locals held on the same day as the GE to see what I mean.

Shenstone was Conservative by almost forty points in May; in Little Aston and Stonnall the combined Conservative/Independent* vote led Labour by sixty points.

*I am reliably informed that they were dissident Tories. Obviously not all of their voters will have been the same so you can (as I have done) revise this down a bit but it's still going to be very, very Conservative in the by-election.

[Wiswylfen]

Here are the performances by "populist right" parties at English by-elections this Parliament.  I've excluded Southend West, as it was uncontested by the main opposition parties.

I chose not to include the Christian People's Alliance (more religious right than populist right), the Freedom Alliance (more conspiracy theorists and anti-lockdown policies than any sort of nationalist tendencies) or Piers Corbyn's Let London Live (similar to Freedom Alliance) although there's some fishing in the same pool going on.  I also didn't include George Galloway, although I suspect he was also fishing in that pool to some extent, and the lowly position of Batley & Spen in the list supports that thesis.

Including the SDP might be a little controversial among some of their supporters but based on what I've seen of their literature is the correct decision.

Tamworth Reform UK 5.4%, Britain First 2.3%, UKIP 1.7%
Old Bexley & Sidcup Reform UK 6.6%, Eng Dem 1.3%, UKIP 0.8%, Heritage 0.5%
North Shropshire Reform UK 3.8%, Reclaim 1.0%, UKIP 1.0%, Heritage 0.2%
Selby & Ainsty Reform UK 3.7%, SDP 0.9%, Heritage 0.5%
-----above here they collectively got enough to save a deposit-----
West Lancashire Reform UK 4.4%
Mid Bedfordshire Reform UK 3.7%, Eng Dem 0.3%, Heritage 0.2%
Somerton & Frome Reform UK 3.4%, UKIP 0.7%
Wakefield Reform UK 1.9%, Britain First 1.1%, UKIP 0.5%, Eng Dem 0.5%
Stretford & Urmston Reform UK 3.5%, SDP 0.4%
City of Chester Reform UK 2.7%, UKIP 0.6%
Uxbridge & South Ruislip Reclaim 2.3%, SDP 0.8%, UKIP 0.2%
Hartlepool Heritage 1.6%, Reform UK 1.2%, SDP 0.4%
Tiverton & Honiton Reform UK 1.1%, UKIP 0.6%, Heritage 0.4%, For Britain 0.3%
Batley & Spen Eng Dem 0.6%, UKIP 0.4%, For Britain 0.3%, SDP 0.2%, Heritage 0.1%, Ind Fransen 0.1%
Birmingham Erdington Reform UK 1.7%
Chesham & Amersham Reform UK 1.1%

And combined:

9.4% Tamworth
9.2% Old Bexley & Sidcup
6.0% North Shropshire
5.1% Selby & Ainsty
4.4% West Lancashire
4.2% Mid Bedfordshire
4.1% Somerton & Frome
4.0% Wakefield
3.9% Stretford & Urmston
3.3% City of Chester
3.3% Uxbridge & South Ruislip
3.2% Hartlepool
2.4% Tiverton & Honiton
1.7% Batley & Spen
1.7% Birmingham Erdington
1.1% Chesham & Amersham

Interesting how low it is in Batley and Spen. Either (as in Hartlepool) consolidation around the Conservative candidate, or maybe George Galloway did make inroads with that vote.

[Wiswylfen]

Anyone intending to canvass there might be interested to know that you can get a £1 burger from this place.

https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Attraction_Review-g186332-d6479548-Reviews-Higgitt_s_Las_Vegas_Amusements-Blackpool_Lancashire_England.html

The food poisoning comes free.

[Wiswylfen]

Anyone intending to canvass there might be interested to know that you can get a £1 burger from this place.

https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Attraction_Review-g186332-d6479548-Reviews-Higgitt_s_Las_Vegas_Amusements-Blackpool_Lancashire_England.html

The food poisoning comes free.

On that note I will be getting a rover (well, combining two) next year to campaign in Blackpool and twice a day participate in the Blackpool North station experience/experiment. I will try the burger and report back if I am still alive.

[Wiswylfen]

Elaborating on my Blackpool North comment for the benefit of anyone who may be going to Blackpool to canvass: the railway station is (in)famous (among people interested in the railway, anyway) for its authoritarian atmosphere and the staff’s hostility to any and all passengers. The doors of the station building are only unlocked upon arrival and just before departure, all year at all times. Yes, this has led to trains departing without any passengers on in the past.

Blackpool South, on the other hand, is Blackpool South. Enjoy your hourly service as far as Preston!

edit: Oh, yes, the constituencies: despite the names you can get to Blackpool South fairly easily from either of them. Blackpool North is just across the constituency boundary.

[Wiswylfen]

My prediction for Wellingborough is as follows:

LAB 51
CON 29
RFM 7
IND 6
GRN 3
LDM 2
OTH 2

Which, putting the precise numbers aside because they don't actually matter, is that if Bone stands (him standing is not in itself a prediction, just to be clear) he will just about save his deposit but overall perform rather poorly. I might be reading too much into past support for right-of-the-Conservatives parties in my Reform prediction but I underestimated them last time, so. A steady Green vote on the surface, plenty of churn beneath, but the Lib Dem vote collapses and tactically heads for Labour.

And for Blackpool South:

LAB 59
CON 27
RFM 9
GRN 2
LDM 1
OTH 2

Massive Labour majority of over thirty points as the Conservative vote collapses to its lowest level in the constituency's history. Turnout of around 30%. I think Reform will do decently: this is, after all, Blackpool, and they do seem to have some local organisation. Again, Green vote steady while the Lib Dem vote collapses.

[Wiswylfen]

My prediction for Wellingborough is as follows:

LAB 51
CON 29
RFM 7
IND 6
GRN 3
LDM 2
OTH 2

Which, putting the precise numbers aside because they don't actually matter, is that if Bone stands (him standing is not in itself a prediction, just to be clear) he will just about save his deposit but overall perform rather poorly. I might be reading too much into past support for right-of-the-Conservatives parties in my Reform prediction but I underestimated them last time, so. A steady Green vote on the surface, plenty of churn beneath, but the Lib Dem vote collapses and tactically heads for Labour.

I think you’ve overestimated the swing in Wellingborough. Repeating the swing in Selby & Ainsty/Tamworth you would get a Labour win of about 10%.

My assumption is that with Wellingborough lacking the more anti-Labour 'rural' (well, you know what I mean: I'm not going to use 'exurban') elements of those two constituencies, and also the demographics not having changed as much as in Tamworth, the swing in the towns to Labour will count for more. Also see that the Bone % to the Conservative %--which has no parallel in either constituency--gets you a total of 35% and Labour down to a 16-point majority.

[Wiswylfen]

My prediction for Wellingborough is as follows:

LAB 51
CON 29
RFM 7
IND 6
GRN 3
LDM 2
OTH 2

Which, putting the precise numbers aside because they don't actually matter, is that if Bone stands (him standing is not in itself a prediction, just to be clear) he will just about save his deposit but overall perform rather poorly. I might be reading too much into past support for right-of-the-Conservatives parties in my Reform prediction but I underestimated them last time, so. A steady Green vote on the surface, plenty of churn beneath, but the Lib Dem vote collapses and tactically heads for Labour.

I think you’ve overestimated the swing in Wellingborough. Repeating the swing in Selby & Ainsty/Tamworth you would get a Labour win of about 10%.

My assumption is that with Wellingborough lacking the more anti-Labour 'rural' (well, you know what I mean: I'm not going to use 'exurban') elements of those two constituencies, and also the demographics not having changed as much as in Tamworth, the swing in the towns to Labour will count for more. Also see that the Bone % to the Conservative %--which has no parallel in either constituency--gets you a total of 35% and Labour down to a 16-point majority.

To elaborate and so that I am not misinterpreted:

Obviously the 'rural' parts of Tamworth and those of Selby and Ainsty are in little ways comparable. I use it here only to indicate that Wellingborough lacks both the truly rural, agricultural parts of Selby where the Vale of York collides with the Humberhead Levels and the 'rural' (read: heavily Conservative-voting, high-turnout, affluent villages) element of Tamworth. Irchester, for instance, has an industrial heritage which has left a decent base for Labour to rely on there.

As reasoning would indicate (in the absence of the detailed results we do not have) there was less of a swing to Labour in those areas (and more of one in the towns). In Selby this will have been because despite how unpopular the Conservatives may be parties other than Labour are most likely to benefit from that. In Tamworth this will be because the people in those sorts of places have not been in any significant way impacted by the material effects of Conservative government.

[Wiswylfen]

I do suspect the Tory vote in Blackpool will hold up a bit better than that.

(and this year's local elections back that up)

Local elections and parliamentary elections are of course very different things, as the Conservatives found in Tynemouth and Sunderland. It may be a sign of a greater sentiment extending beyond local issues and to have results at a parliamentary election, or it might just be the product of good organisation and a willingness to vote for specific candidates. In the absence of anything like ULEZ did for us, I'm assuming the latter.