UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[afleitch]

One note on tactical voting in Scotland.

Labour voters who voted Tory in recent cycles reverting to type isn't technically tactical voting. It's wrong to assume it's 'Tories tactically voting Labour'. They weren't Tories

There is also a fun realignment between voting patterns in Airdie and Coatbridge.

[afleitch]

There's a case to be made that in an alternate 2019, this is the sort of result that could have happened in a wealthy, west of London leaning seat that was estimated at 55% Remain. That it didn't was of course due to a myriad of different reasons that in the end, had little to do with the Lib Dems. Indeed, the seat itself despite the Lib Dems having a bit of sh-t year, did see their vote rebound to what they had been previously getting (before 2015) since the days of the Alliance. So seats like these are fertile grounds for Lib Dem by-election wins and the sorts of seats that become fertile grounds for Lib Dem by-election wins is very different bag than it was a decade or more ago.

[afleitch]

Galloway has every right to be furious.

This is not a good result for him. His previous iteration (well, one of many of them) would have easily won this seat. He was attempting the same message and innuendo as in Bradford West (some of which was identical) but it was less factional and sectarian and more conspiratorial. Remember he's spent most of the past year running the Alliance For Unity anti-SNP shtick which is nothing more than an online fringe. He was still seeking 'strokes' from that twitter audience. Outside of the Respect brand he's increasingly out of touch with the communities he used to appeal to.

[afleitch]

Galloway has every right to be furious.

This is not a good result for him. His previous iteration (well, one of many of them) would have easily won this seat. He was attempting the same message and innuendo as in Bradford West (some of which was identical) but it was less factional and sectarian and more conspiratorial. Remember he's spent most of the past year running the Alliance For Unity anti-SNP shtick which is nothing more than an online fringe. He was still seeking 'strokes' from that twitter audience. Outside of the Respect brand he's increasingly out of touch with the communities he used to appeal to.

I don't think he's furious. I think he's challenging the result so that he can stay in the limelight and continue to scam low info acolytes for his cause. He is there solely to monopolise attention and he succeeded for a while. I mean, the last election he stood in he was a footnote, and the last by-election even more so. This felt like Bradford West 2.0 in terms of exposure to his brand by the media.

He doesn't have a consistent brand anymore. That's his issue. He has a style and we certainly saw that, but there are too many plates spinning now in which he's trying to court both the Muslim vote in north of England towns at election time but a viscerally anti-Muslim, reactionary online right that generates his clicks and likes, anti-SNP unionist idpol folks and the Greenwaldian 'left' when it's not election time.

It can't win him elections. Which is what he really wants.

[afleitch]

For fun, the average vote share change in the 3 English by-elections, despite the crazy swings in two of them is surprisingly neat:

Tory +0.5
Labour -9.2
Lib Dem +8.7

[afleitch]

[afleitch]

There is an old tradition (though not consistently followed), despite certain facts being obvious, to not speculate on by-elections in the case of death until they are properly eulogised and buried.

I'd like this to remain that way.

[afleitch]

Someone keeps posting rubbish about betting odds for North Shropshire by election on Twitter and it turns out they’re a former Lib Dem MP. Just embarrassing

They should join the hellhole known as voteuk.

Part hellhole, part bizarro world.

[afleitch]

Early rumours that the Tories have held on. Labour vote firmer than the Lib Dems would have liked.

[afleitch]

Well that was fun.

[afleitch]

The average Tory decline across all by-elections is now 7.8 points. Excluding Hartlepool (due to exceptional circumstances) it's a drop of 14.1 points.

It's dropped in every by election since Hartlepool. Labour have dropped 3.4 points and the Lib Dems have gained 13.4 points.

While Labour haven't made a by-election gain since Corby in 2012, no seat has yet presented itself as an opportune scalp from the Tories, the Old Bexley result was their best showing in that seat since 2001 and Batley was only really complicated by George Galloway.

[afleitch]

"I will hold regular surgeries" what? Why would you pledge that? That's the bare minimum...

'11. I will be an MP.'

[afleitch]

It really is cesspit. It's Atlas Forum if it's key demographic was the complete opposite.

[afleitch]

FWIW, here's the bands of those 2 polls:

Lab - 48-56%
Con - 28-33%
Green - 2-8%
LD - 2-7%
Ref - 3-3%
Ind - 0-3%
YP - 0-1%
BF - 0-1%

The Labour range is within the 1987-2001% share they obtained with Hinchcliffe (and at the higher end is closer to the 1997 share). The Tory range falls that which is achieved between 1997 and 2005.

So Labour actually getting that sort of vote share in a by-election is more than just 'winning back' red wall marginal seats but getting an emphatic 'endorsement.'

[afleitch]

I think we fall into the trap of thinking dislike of Boris isn't that bad because Starmer isn't Mr Charisma and doesn't poll as well (and neither does Labour) as some people would hope.

There's a lot of elasticity in the British electorate. Labour ran up 1997 shares in many seats in 2017 before hitting historic lows two years later. There are above average (historically) swings in a lot of by non marginal seats in opposing directions each election.

An absolute trouncing, even with a majority that looks formidable is entirely possible.

[afleitch]

29.9% straight swing. Historically this is very high but not as high as North Shropshire. It is worth noting that two of the four biggest by-election swings from the Tories to the Liberals have happened this parliament.

[afleitch]

If we look at English by-elections (and excluding Southend West) we have the following average vote share changes

Conservative: -10.7%
Labour -4.4%
Lib Dem +11.4%

These elections also include Hartlepool (the first by-election; a Conservative gain) and Batley and Spen (intervention).

Without Hartlepool (a reverse intervention), the Tory vote drops on average by 15.5

If we look at the same picture in the 1992-1997 Parliament, but only during the years Blair was leader of the Labour Party, the Tory share dropped by 17.7 points on average (Labour up 13.9, Lib Dems down 2.0). These were contests on more favourable seats for Labour than the current crops of seats up for election.

So the Tory share is as down by almost as much as it was during the period in which they were heading for the exit.

The Lib Dem gains now are even more impressive given that in most seats they are recovering from relative historic lows for a third party.

[afleitch]

A pretty good result for Labour given the cause of the by-election.

And also as it was one of those constituencies with a solid result in 2019 and therefore would not have as much room to swing violently...

The swing is also in line with the higher end of swings to Labour in seats they were defending between 1992 and 1997.

[afleitch]

Excluding Airdrie, Hartlepool and Southend, the average vote share changes at by-elections are as follows

CON -14.7
LAB 0.5
LD 9.3

The average across Labour holds or pickups from the Tories is

CON -10.2
LAB 6.1
LD -1.2

Excluding Batley (due to Galloway's intervention)

CON -11.9
LAB 8.8
LD -1.3

[afleitch]

My hometown seat.

On current polling it's a Labour gain. Would need, turnout aside, direct SNP to Labour switchers for a gain. Tories at 15% last time and the lowest they have obtained in this seat is 7%. Lib Dems at 5% lowest was 1%. So driving the other unionist parties to historic lows would probably not quite be enough.

It's not a by-election the SNP wants to fight but it's probably good for the party to do so as a 'dry run' for defending seats vulnerable to Labour.

[afleitch]

Yeah - both Labour and SNP have endorsed a recall (and subsequent by-election), so collecting signatures should be one of the easiest parts of the process.

In part because it's a good by-election to fight (and even lose) for both parties. It's a dry run at what is likely to be the GE battlefield. Even under late 2021 political conditions I'd have this down as a 60-40 chance of Labour gain with the only difficulty being the 'hard sponginess' of the Tory vote and little else to squeeze other than direct switchers. At the moment, it should be more of a Labour cert...but there are some local issues and potential candidate issues that could muddy things. An SNP hold isn't yet a complete write off.

It's my hometown seat and I have some residual connections to some of the politiking there, but it's still early days.

[afleitch]

Labour will not want for volunteers in this one, that much is at least true.

Might be the SNP's best asset if they deploy them...

[afleitch]

Labour would need a swing bigger than it's recently achieved in order to win. The Lib Dems need a swing in the range that it has achieved, in order to win from 3rd. Provided Labour don't advance.

It's worth noting that the three by election wins for the Lib Dems happened in seats that recorded an increase in their share, swung against the government against the national trend or both in 2019. This gave them some headwind.

This seat is similar. Even with the 2019 swing, it's clear that Dorries built up a personal vote too.

53-47 Leave.

[afleitch]

The SNP have selected Katy Loudon, councillor for Cambuslang East on South Lanarkshire council (in the constituency) as their candidate for Rutherglen & Hamilton West.

Good choice!

[afleitch]

With the recall petition closing July 31st it could be a really weird time to have a by-election - august or early September pre-conferences.

Recall elections can't be called during recess, so it would be later.

Good point - so it’ll probably be well in to the autumn before we actually get a date.

Worth noting that the recall depends on voters caring enough to sign it. Ferrier has a reputation as a good constituency, and constituency based MP, which in part contributed to her behaviour which led to her suspension.

Its not merely a paper exercise.