BC Election on October 24th

[Hatman 🍁]

Needs more Lotuslander

no

[DL]

Needs more Lotuslander

Hah! I wonder whatever happened to that guy. He used to post all over social media about BC politics - invariably coloured by his almost pathological hatred of the NDP. He was 100% certain that there was no way the NDP could win in 2017. He was 100% certain there was no way the NDP and Greens could agree to a deal. he was 100% certain there was no way that the NDP/Green deal could survive more than a week or two...then by late summer 2017 when it became clear that the NDP government under Horgan was here to stay - he vanished. I wonder whether having an NDP government in BC was just too much for him emotionally and that he retreated to a padded cell somewhere...

Anyways, in other news the final Statscan job report before the election came out today and say that BC gained 55,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell over a full point...more devastatingly bad news for the BC Liberals... 

[King of Kensington]

Looks like this could be a milestone for the NDP, which was always stuck around 40-45% whether it won or lost (which depended on the strength and unity of the "free enterprise coalition.")

[lilTommy]

and now Research Co has released their second poll of the campaign and they have the NDP lead increasing from 7 points when the election was called to 12 points now

BC NDP 48% (+4)
BC Liberals 36% (-1)
BC Green Party 13% (=)
BC Conservative Party 2% (-3)

Once again, the theory that a collapse of the BC Conservatives would benefit the Liberals has been exploded - if anything its the NDP that has picked up from the BC Cons

https://researchco.ca/2020/10/08/bcelxn2020-october/

This is much more consistent with the other polls; other then Insight West's poll from Sept 22nd (still showing an NDP lead of 13%) no other poll has the NDP below 45%. The average lead for the NDP is 14.6% based on all the polling since the election was called.

[Benjamin Frank]

Looks like this could be a milestone for the NDP, which was always stuck around 40-45% whether it won or lost (which depended on the strength and unity of the "free enterprise coalition.")

Goes back a long way, but when Bill VanderZalm was Premier, the B.C NDP regularly polled in the low 50% range.

The high water mark for the NDP vote was around 46% in 1979. That was a largely two way race though and it's a bit complicated by a number of dual member ridings.

[mileslunn]

What’s the story behind Wilkinson ever having won the BC Liberal leadership in the first place? What could possibly possess ANYONE to vote for such a totally repulsive politician who is so devoid of any appeal to voters. What the hell were BC Liberal members thinking? It’s not like they didn’t have plenty of alternatives in that contest.

He spent a lot in the right areas.  If straight up popular vote not weighted by ridings, either Michael Lee or Diane Watts would have won as both did better in Lower Mainland.  A lot of MLAs wanted him or DeJong as still stuck in past and didn't recognize when you lose, party needs to change.  Also his chief campaigner Katy Merrifield now works for Jason Kenney. 

In a lot of ways though Ontario Liberals made same mistake in choosing Steve Del Duca.  It seems often when parties lose first election, they are in denial and just double down.  Its usually after a few losses they realize they have to change to come back.

[Benjamin Frank]

Edited after seeing the video.


https://twitter.com/David_Moscrop/status/1315152385904443403
The person talking is North Vancouver MLA Jane Thornthwaite.

Bowinn Ma is the MLA for the riding of the city of North Vancouver (as opposed to the district of North Vancouver.)  I don't know anything one way or the other about her taking credit for things she wasn't part of (other than that's kind of normal in politics) but she is regarded as a very capable MLA.  She was first elected in 2017 at the age of 31 and is/was a professional engineer and project manager.  She seems to be something of a rising star.

"Ralph" is Ralph Sultan who is retiring after first being elected in 2001.  He was/is a highly credentialed engineer and economist and is the MLA for a neighboring riding in West Vancouver, which I guess is why it was his job to keep an eye on Bowinn Ma.  The major media outlets tend to think very highly of him due to his credentials and his 'outsider' status in the Liberal caucus.  He was briefly a junior minister for seniors in the Gordon Campbell government and was Minister of Advanced Education under Christy Clark until the 2013 election.  The media put him spending most of his political career on the back benches down to him being too independent to parrot talking points.

I don't even remember why I found this article, but the most current thing I've read about him was when Victoria Times columnist Les Leyne wrote a fawning article of Sultan criticizing the transportation minister for the NDP decision to overturn the Christy Clark government 10 lane bridge replacement for the Massey Tunnel.

The most interesting thing of that article was Sultan was quoted in the House as saying that the government had projected the cost of the new bridge at $3.5 billion, but it accepted a bid to build it at just over $2.5 billion.

I can not find a single source to back up this approximately $2.5 billion figure.

https://www.timescolonist.com/opinion/columnists/les-leyne-great-grandpa-mla-engineers-tunnel-questions-1.24168775

This is an example of the fawning nature of the article:  

"Cue Liberal MLA Ralph Sultan, (West Vancouver-Capilano). He’s the courtly grandfather (make that great-grandfather) of the house. But every so often he likes to rain hellfire down on the NDP, just to stay limber."

According to Les Leyne, this is what Sultan claimed in the House: The estimate was $3.5 billion but a bid came in almost $1 billion lower and work began.

The Liberals have brought out this bridge promise again, and the cost figure is again a projected $3.5 billion (though approximately 3.5 years later.)

Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson is in the bottom middle square.

[mileslunn]

I'm listening to the radio, so I haven't seen this yet, but this is apparently very bad for Andrew Wilkinson (trending on Twitter.)

https://twitter.com/David_Moscrop/status/1315152385904443403

It's not good and does play into idea party is stuck in past.  Interestingly enough it is another woman making the sexist remark not man and while right thing would be for one to intervene, how many of us in real life when a friend or family member says something stupid intervene?  I don't think it will help party but they are losing already so might be bad if in lead, but party is down to core anyways so not likely to go much lower.

[Benjamin Frank]

I'm listening to the radio, so I haven't seen this yet, but this is apparently very bad for Andrew Wilkinson (trending on Twitter.)

https://twitter.com/David_Moscrop/status/1315152385904443403

It's not good and does play into idea party is stuck in past.  Interestingly enough it is another woman making the sexist remark not man and while right thing would be for one to intervene, how many of us in real life when a friend or family member says something stupid intervene?  I don't think it will help party but they are losing already so might be bad if in lead, but party is down to core anyways so not likely to go much lower.

North Vancouver-Seymour (North Vancouver District) MLA Jane Thornthwaite is the woman speaking.

North Vancouver-Seymour has only voted NDP sort of once when in 1972 it voted for Colin Gabelmann.  I'm pretty sure the riding back then contained much of what is now the North Vancouver-Lonsdale riding.  (The city of North Vancouver.)

The city of North Vancouver is a fairly compact middle class suburb.  The riding of North Vancouver-Lonsdale had only previously voted for the NDP once before in 1991 when subsequent frequent political commentator Dave Schreck won the riding, but the NDP have been competitive in every election except for 2001.  (Dave Shreck had a website called "Strategic Thoughts,"  Lotuslander was a frequent responder on the site.)

North Vancouver-Seymour has been a strong anti-NDP riding, but in 2017 Jane Thornthwaite was reelected by a just over 10% margin over the NDP.



For those interested in a bit of history:  if the name Colin Gabelmann is familiar, it's because though he was defeated in 1975, he was employed by a union following the election and was relocated to Northern Vancouver Island, and in the 1979 election was reelected to the legislature for the riding of North Island. (From North Vancouver to North Island.)

From 1972-1975 Gabelmann was a young left wing hardliner, one of the three NDP MLAs to vote against the 'back to work' legislation that the Barrett NDP government passed to end a wide scale public sector strike right before Dave Barrett called the 1975 election.  (The NDP ran on this in the 1975 election with billboards or something of a picture of Dave Barrett and the words of something like 'He did his job so that you could do your job. Reelect the NDP.')

By 1991, Gabelmann political views had shifted considerably more to the center. Probably most famously, before the 1991 election, then NDP leader Mike Harcourt had Colin Gabelmann by his side when, I believe at a speech before the Vancouver Board of Trade, Harcourt referred to himself as a 'capitalist.'

Shortly after this, I believe Ronald Reagan visited Vancouver and was picked up at the airport by wealthy industrialist Jimmy Pattison.  A headline in the U.S on this said "Capitalist picks up Ronald Reagan at airport."

I remember a sketch of Bob Robertson and Linda Cullen (they called themselves 'Double Exposure' on their CBC program) reading the headline and saying "Why would Mike Harcourt do that?"

Anyway, Colin Gabelmann probably would have made a fine finance minister in the Harcourt government (couldn't have been much worse than Glen Clark) but Harcourt appointed him as the Attorney General even though Gabelmann wasn't a lawyer.  Gabelmann was actually regarded as the best minister in the government for a couple years, but then 3 or 4 issues hit his ministry at the same time and he ended up foolishly attacking some anti abortionist likely due to exhaustion and being in over his head due to not being a lawyer and was dropped in the subsequent cabinet shuffle.  He then did not run for reelection in 1996.



For even more history:  There were three lawyers in the NDP caucus from 1986-1991.  Larry Guno (pronounced Gu-new), Moe Sihota and Mike Harcourt.    Guno represented the small population riding of Atlin which was absorbed into the riding of North Coast for the 1991 election and, so Guno, retired.  Mike Harcourt was the Premier and Moe Sihota, although a colorful and capable person, had a series of minor scandals during his tenure from 1986-1991 and was regarded as too political to be the Attorney General.

There were a number of lawyers elected to the NDP caucus in the 1991 'intake' but I gather Harcourt decided to appoint a veteran MLA to the position.  Andrew Petter, who was a law professor, was appointed as the minister for aboriginal affairs in 1991.  In the 1995 cabinet shuffle, lawyer Ujjal Dosanjh was appointed Attorney General.

[CumbrianLefty]

Needs more Lotuslander

Hah! I wonder whatever happened to that guy

Got kicked, possibly?

[mileslunn]

I think with or without this video Jane Thornwaite could lose her seat.  NDP are far enough ahead that normally safe BC Liberal ridings will come into play.  Agree it will probably flip back to BC Liberals in 2024 regardless of outcome, but I suspect this election you will see a few previously safe BC Liberal ridings go NDP.

My riding Vancouver-False Creek a decade ago was a very safe BC Liberal one.  BC Liberals beat NDP by 2 to 1 margin in 2009, but barely hung on in 2017 and pretty sure it will flip NDP. 

[adma]

Needs more Lotuslander

Hah! I wonder whatever happened to that guy

Got kicked, possibly?

I checked his Twitter--nothing but "one person followed/one person unfollowed" data for at least the past year and a half...

[warandwar]

I think with or without this video Jane Thornwaite could lose her seat.  NDP are far enough ahead that normally safe BC Liberal ridings will come into play.  Agree it will probably flip back to BC Liberals in 2024 regardless of outcome, but I suspect this election you will see a few previously safe BC Liberal ridings go NDP.

My riding Vancouver-False Creek a decade ago was a very safe BC Liberal one.  BC Liberals beat NDP by 2 to 1 margin in 2009, but barely hung on in 2017 and pretty sure it will flip NDP. 

Kits Point and the District of North Van going NDP is really something else.

[DL]

IMHO BC is starting to lock in a pattern that is very NDP = Democrats and BC Liberals = Republicans. In any American state these days you see once Republican suburbs and exurbs turning solidly Democratic. I'm sure there are wealthier suburbs of Seattle and Portland that were once as GOP as North Vancouver and Richmond and Langley etc... were once BC Liberal - but now those areas are totally Democrat. Similarly in Ontario we now have a situation where anytime the more progressive alternative to the Tories (i.e. the Ontario Liberals and/or NDP) wins - they literally win just about every single seat in the GTA. On the other hand - the BC NDP does worse now than they used to do in the interior (e.g in 2005 the NDP won both Cariboo seats) - but the province as a whole is getting more urban and less rural so that is a trend they can live with.

Once upon a time the NDP in BC was seen as a bit of a strident "class based" party that was anathema to well-heeled professional types - but i think those days are over and if you live in a place like West Vancouver and you voted for the federal Liberals under Trudeau last year - its not much of a leap to vote for the BC NDP under Horgan. Its notable that in last year's Alberta election the NDP won all but one seat in Edmonton, including some seats that are quite wealthy and that used to be PC strongholds and when the NDP did well in Manitoba and Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia it would typically run the tables in greater Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg and Halifax...so it seems to me that a big challenge for rightwing parties is figuring out how to win urban areas again 

[Benjamin Frank]

IMHO BC is starting to lock in a pattern that is very NDP = Democrats and BC Liberals = Republicans. In any American state these days you see once Republican suburbs and exurbs turning solidly Democratic. I'm sure there are wealthier suburbs of Seattle and Portland that were once as GOP as North Vancouver and Richmond and Langley etc... were once BC Liberal - but now those areas are totally Democrat. Similarly in Ontario we now have a situation where anytime the more progressive alternative to the Tories (i.e. the Ontario Liberals and/or NDP) wins - they literally win just about every single seat in the GTA. On the other hand - the BC NDP does worse now than they used to do in the interior (e.g in 2005 the NDP won both Cariboo seats) - but the province as a whole is getting more urban and less rural so that is a trend they can live with.

Once upon a time the NDP in BC was seen as a bit of a strident "class based" party that was anathema to well-heeled professional types - but i think those days are over and if you live in a place like West Vancouver and you voted for the federal Liberals under Trudeau last year - its not much of a leap to vote for the BC NDP under Horgan. Its notable that in last year's Alberta election the NDP won all but one seat in Edmonton, including some seats that are quite wealthy and that used to be PC strongholds and when the NDP did well in Manitoba and Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia it would typically run the tables in greater Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg and Halifax...so it seems to me that a big challenge for rightwing parties is figuring out how to win urban areas again  

I think this is the trend, yes, but it's still a bit overstated.  North Vancouver is trending NDP but West Vancouver isn't (if anything West Vancouver may be trending Green provincially.)  And, the strongest riding for the Federal Liberals and the one that fits the bill for the Democratic Party is Andrew Wilkinson's riding of Vancouver-Quilchena, which may be the only provincial Liberal riding left in Vancouver.

Vancouver-Langara is a bit of an interesting riding as well.  It's the most Conservative of all the Vancouver ridings in that South Vancouver used to be a separate city until something like 1936 (I forget if the city was called South Vancouver, Langara or Marpole) and it still has something of a suburban feel with strip malls, single detached housing and the like.  However, like the suburbs, it's also trended left and the provincial NDP made a decent showing there in 2017.

Also, while the situation is a bit different since nearly all the candidates were appointed and not nominated (the NDP had 7 contested nominations and the winners were all announced in a single press release), of the 53 non incumbent New Democratic candidates, 18 have a business background while only 10 or 11 have a union background.  

For what it's worth, just over half of the candidates are or were elected municipally while a fair number of the others are either civil servants or work for the party.  I assume the reason for this is that, given the sudden election call, there was no time for a serious 'vetting' of the candidates, and I presume all of these people had been vetted previously.  While nobody is vetted when they run for municipal office, I presume they are vetted before they get onto the local police board, or hospital board or what-have-you.

[DL]

Vancouver Quilchena is to Vancouver what River Heights is to Winnipeg. As long as the BC Liberals are led by a stuffy patrician like Wilkinson who has a big L federal Liberal pedigree they will win there. But if after Wilkinson the BC Liberals pick a new leader who is a rightwing conservative populist... they could lose places like Quilchena too

[King of Kensington]

IMHO BC is starting to lock in a pattern that is very NDP = Democrats and BC Liberals = Republicans. In any American state these days you see once Republican suburbs and exurbs turning solidly Democratic. I'm sure there are wealthier suburbs of Seattle and Portland that were once as GOP as North Vancouver and Richmond and Langley etc... were once BC Liberal - but now those areas are totally Democrat. Similarly in Ontario we now have a situation where anytime the more progressive alternative to the Tories (i.e. the Ontario Liberals and/or NDP) wins - they literally win just about every single seat in the GTA. On the other hand - the BC NDP does worse now than they used to do in the interior (e.g in 2005 the NDP won both Cariboo seats) - but the province as a whole is getting more urban and less rural so that is a trend they can live with.

I think this is an apt assessment.  BC is becoming less Australia, more Washington State or California in its voting patterns.

[King of Kensington]

Kits Point and the District of North Van going NDP is really something else.

The NDP won Point Grey in 2013.  It's basically the Vancouver equivalent of St. Paul's or University-Rosedale in Toronto.

[DL]

And Vancouver False Creek is the Vancouver equivalent of Soadina Fort York...a seat that is now totally unwinnable for a conservative candidate

[Benjamin Frank]

IMHO BC is starting to lock in a pattern that is very NDP = Democrats and BC Liberals = Republicans. In any American state these days you see once Republican suburbs and exurbs turning solidly Democratic. I'm sure there are wealthier suburbs of Seattle and Portland that were once as GOP as North Vancouver and Richmond and Langley etc... were once BC Liberal - but now those areas are totally Democrat. Similarly in Ontario we now have a situation where anytime the more progressive alternative to the Tories (i.e. the Ontario Liberals and/or NDP) wins - they literally win just about every single seat in the GTA. On the other hand - the BC NDP does worse now than they used to do in the interior (e.g in 2005 the NDP won both Cariboo seats) - but the province as a whole is getting more urban and less rural so that is a trend they can live with.

I think this is an apt assessment.  BC is becoming less Australia, more Washington State or California in its voting patterns.

One thing that has prevented this from happening up until now, and could continue to be a problem, is that anybody who wants to join the provincial NDP also has to be a member of any other New Democratic Party organization.  Generally that means federally, but sometimes municipally as well.  When 'Moderate Mike' Harcourt became leader (by acclimation) this likely prevented a good number of supporters from joining the party.

That is still an issue, but one thing that has changed is the banning of corporate and union donations.  The public sector unions especially don't seem to have anywhere near the influence on the Horgan government, that they've had on previous NDP governments.

[DL]

That might be an issue for the 1% of people who would ever even consider becoming a card carry member of a political party in BC. The other 99% vote one way or another and don’t give a hoot about whether being a card carrying member of a provincial party means anything in federal politics. When Gary Doer won several consecutive landslides in Manitoba it didn’t seem to matter that the Manitoba NDP is connected to the federal NDP.

PS: there is no such a thing as a municipal NDP anywhere in Canada that is an organization that is organically linked to the federal or provincial nDP

[Benjamin Frank]

That might be an issue for the 1% of people who would ever even consider becoming a card carry member of a political party in BC. The other 99% vote one way or another and don’t give a hoot about whether being a card carrying member of a provincial party means anything in federal politics. When Gary Doer won several consecutive landslides in Manitoba it didn’t seem to matter that the Manitoba NDP is connected to the federal NDP.

PS: there is no such a thing as a municipal NDP anywhere in Canada that is an organization that is organically linked to the federal or provincial nDP

1.The issue is one of the policies passed by the party.  Certainly the Horgan government seems to have largely ignored them, but the NDP provincial council was a major headache for Harcourt.

Officially, an NDP government is supposed to implement policies that were passed by the members.

2.There certainly are:  
The civic party that dominates Burnaby is the Burnaby Citizens' Association.
"Corrigan was the standard-bearer for the Burnaby Citizens Association, which is affiliated with the NDP. He's also chair of the TransLink Mayors' Council."

https://www.straight.com/news/1153806/former-firefighter-mike-hurley-leading-derek-corrigan-burnaby-mayoral-race

In Richmond, where they have two city councillors
RCA (Richmond Citizen's Association) is the civic expression of the New Democratic Party in #RichmondBC. We are committed to bringing about positive change in our community.

https://www.facebook.com/RichmondCitizensAssn/photos/rca-is-the-civic-expression-of-the-new-democratic-party-in-richmondbc-we-are-com/1517285274976721/

I believe there are others as well.  Where there is a municipal NDP organization that runs candidates, no member of the NDP can run for any other municipal party.

[DL]

Sure there are informal alliances between the NDP and various municipal parties and groupings but again it’s informal. I’m pretty sure that if I live in Burnaby and I join the NDP I don’t automatically become a member of the BCA and I’m also 100% certain that if I pay the BC NDP $20 a year to be a member not one penny of that goes to the BCA. The BC Liberals are also linked to the NPA in Vancouver but that is the least of their problems! And every party has issues with party members being more radical than the politicians especially when in government and there are always tensions between the federal and provincial party. You know if I lived in Alberta and joined the NDP to support Rachel Notley, I’m also automatically a member of the federal NDP which opposes pipelines! But people just have to agree to disagree with others in their party sometimes!

PS: the current mayor of Burnaby ran against the supposedly “NDP affiliated BCA” mayor and won. But the current mayor is also an NDP supporter! And the mayor of Vancouver Kennedy Stewart was an NDP MP but ran as a non-partisan independent and won

[mileslunn]

That is true, you are seeing some urban/rural sorting.  Vancouver-False Creek is sort of like Cities of London & Westminster in UK where Tories even in 1997 disaster won over 50%, but in 2019 only got 39% and if Labour and Liberal Democrats had an agreement to only run one candidate would have beat Tories.

Still suburbs as you see in Ontario, Quebec, and Manitoba do vote for parties on right, but they are more bellwethers thus less BC Liberal locks like in past.  Otherwise BC Liberals will win them back when they return to office, but they cannot count on always winning them like they used to.  905 belt and South & West Winnipeg went largely PC in last provincial election, but when NDP and Liberals won in respective provinces they won those areas thus bellwethers not safe Tory seats like they once were.

West Vancouver I think stays BC Liberal as North Vancouver is upper middle class but not as wealthy as West Vancouver.  A lot in West Vancouver fall in the top bracket which Horgan like Trudeau raised whereas in North Vancouver most are not in that bracket.  In 90s it was different as top bracket then kicked in at 60K not 220K so impacted a lot more.  I think most in top 1% still voting BC Liberal, but most in top 10%, but not top 1% in Lower Mainland have swung over to NDP.  West Vancouver-Sea to Sky might flip as Bowen Island, Squamish, Whistler, and Pemberton more open to progressive politics, but West Vancouver-Capilano I expect to stay BC Liberal.  Federally the Tories actually narrowly won West Vancouver, but lost riding due to weakness in other parts as the parts outside of West Vancouver, they got absolutely crushed.  Longer term what could change that riding is if they build the high speed rail from Chilliwack to Whistler.  While many years away, I could see many who cannot afford city living in Squamish, Whistler and even new communities sprouting up along route. 

In places like Richmond, I think its more generational.  The first generation Chinese immigrants are still likely solidly BC Liberal, but many of their children are now grown up and they likely vote the same ways as other millennials, NDP.

[mileslunn]

IMHO BC is starting to lock in a pattern that is very NDP = Democrats and BC Liberals = Republicans. In any American state these days you see once Republican suburbs and exurbs turning solidly Democratic. I'm sure there are wealthier suburbs of Seattle and Portland that were once as GOP as North Vancouver and Richmond and Langley etc... were once BC Liberal - but now those areas are totally Democrat. Similarly in Ontario we now have a situation where anytime the more progressive alternative to the Tories (i.e. the Ontario Liberals and/or NDP) wins - they literally win just about every single seat in the GTA. On the other hand - the BC NDP does worse now than they used to do in the interior (e.g in 2005 the NDP won both Cariboo seats) - but the province as a whole is getting more urban and less rural so that is a trend they can live with.

I think this is an apt assessment.  BC is becoming less Australia, more Washington State or California in its voting patterns.

One thing that has prevented this from happening up until now, and could continue to be a problem, is that anybody who wants to join the provincial NDP also has to be a member of any other New Democratic Party organization.  Generally that means federally, but sometimes municipally as well.  When 'Moderate Mike' Harcourt became leader (by acclimation) this likely prevented a good number of supporters from joining the party.

That is still an issue, but one thing that has changed is the banning of corporate and union donations.  The public sector unions especially don't seem to have anywhere near the influence on the Horgan government, that they've had on previous NDP governments.

I think one difference here is BC Liberals while right wing, they are not nearly as reactionary and as extreme as GOP.  I think better American comparison would be a Kasich led GOP and I suspect if he were GOP leader, the cities proper would stay Democrat, but he would win most of the suburbs unlike Trump.  Heck even Biden and Clinton would probably be BC Liberals while Obama and Harris harder to say but probably both in group who voted BC Liberal until now, but since Horgan not as left wing as NDP in 90s, would swing over.  NDP is more like Sanders wing of the Democrats although Horgan being a bit more moderate has made it acceptable to more centrist types unlike in past.