BC Election on October 24th

[Hatman 🍁]

I have a very bad feeling about this.

[Hatman 🍁]

If somehow, the BC Conservatives get around 15%, would they get a seat?

Depends on the quality of candidates. They could realistically only ever hope to win one of the Peace River ridings.

[Hatman 🍁]

If somehow, the BC Conservatives get around 15%, would they get a seat?

Depends on the quality of candidates. They could realistically only ever hope to win one of the Peace River ridings.

I can picture a candidate-driven Okanagan pickup as well.

I mean, if you want to look at possible wins as areas which saw the "last strands of Social Credit", then sure. On that note, one of the Abbotsford seats may also be a pickup opportunity (though, I imagine demographics there may have changed too much since the SoCreds last won seats in 1991)

[Hatman 🍁]

So, the NDP is taking a hit for calling an election, but Horgan's still popular. Once those Conservative voters come back home to the Liberals, we're going to have a closer race. BC remains polarized!

[Hatman 🍁]

So, the NDP is taking a hit for calling an election, but Horgan's still popular. Once those Conservative voters come back home to the Liberals, we're going to have a closer race. BC remains polarized!

The Research Co poll has the BC Cons at 4% and Insight West says 12%...its always a bit of a mystery who those people are and where they end up. The simplistic theory is that BC Conservatives are rightwing and therefor 100% of their vote will go BC Liberal...but IMHO anyone who is politically illiterate enough to think that BC Cons are a viable choice are probably largely non-voters or protest voters...and on top of that BC Liberal leader is from central casting as exactly the kind of BC Liberal that people who vote Tory federally would hate (slick, condescending, downtown Vancouver "Laurentian elite" style professional with big L federal Liberal ties).

Similarly when the Green doubled their vote from 8% to 16% between 2013 and 2017 - the conventional wisdom was that this would be fatal to the NDP - but as we all know the NDP lost when the Greens were at 8% and won (sort of) when the Greens rose to 16% - so go figure...

There may be truth to some of that, but in the past Liberal numbers have gone up as Conservative numbers drop over the course of the campaign, and their numbers do seem to be higher in the Interior. Most people don't constantly think about politics, so even if they get the Conservative/Liberal distinction confused, by the time election day comes, they get it sorted out.

It is interesting that the Reseach Co poll got the Cons at 4%, which is a big difference than the ~12% everyone else has them at. Maybe it was their ballot box question that specifically asked people to think about their candidate in the local riding?

As for the Greens, they're a centrist party, so of course they are going to take from the Liberals too!

It's almost like calling an early election that nobody wanted is significantly hurting their polling numbers. This was such a bad call, John.

In 2017 the NDP ended up exactly tied in the popular vote with the BC Liberals 40-40...now they are anywhere from 7 points to 13 points ahead - which in BC would constitute a landslide since BC elections are always very close...how is going from dead even to leading by an average of 10 "hurting their polling numbers"?

I think everyone is comparing their numbers to before the election call

[Hatman 🍁]

Andrew Weaver who was leader of the Green Party until he resigned earlier this year has officially endorsed John Horgan and the NDP!

Is it true the Canadian Greens are more "centrist" than in some countries?

Generally, yes, but their membership is quite diverse, ranging from far left "eco-socialists" to "Tories with bikes".

[Hatman 🍁]

Amazing if true. Perhaps people upset with the election call have gotten over themselves?

I'm always skeptical of Ipsos, as they use an opt-in panel, but I hope they're right!

[Hatman 🍁]

The federal Liberals did win Kelowna in 2015, so I don't see why the BC NDP can't win there now.

Hmmm. While the provincial NDP is more moderate than the federal party, we're still dealing with apples and oranges here. I can't see Kelowna voting for a nominally social democratic party.

[Hatman 🍁]

The federal Liberals did win Kelowna in 2015, so I don't see why the BC NDP can't win there now.

Kelowna has lots of well to do seniors so don't see it going BC NDP.  If you look at recent elections, BC Liberals won it by over 30 points, so NDP would need around a 30 point lead to win there.  Basically if NDP is winning Kelowna, they are looking at around 70 seats province wide, which I don't see happening.

I largely agree with you but places do evolve demographically. I hear that Kelowna is growing very quickly and more and more young people are moving there. I'm not expecting the NDP to ever sweep it - but at some point as it gets cut into several seats, maybe one of them is more "inner city" than the others...you know up until the 1970s Victoria was a total dead zone for the NDP!

Huh. Why was Victoria so conservative?

[Hatman 🍁]

One more little “x” factor is that tomorrow is the deadline to nominate candidates and it looks like the Greens are already conceding that they will have far less than a full slate

Possible good news for the NDP then?

Probably.

[Hatman 🍁]

Note that the collapse of the Conservatives does not seem to help the BC Liberals...

A bit disingeneous. Every recent poll that had the Conservatives/Other at 10%+ had the Liberals sub-30, and nearly every poll with the Conservatives/Other at <10% have the Liberals above 30.

[Hatman 🍁]

What are the final candidate scores?

Nominations don't close for another several hours. Bloody west coast time difference

Presumably they are known now?

Nope. Elections BC are taking their sweet @$$ time.

The list will be posted sometime today according to this: https://elections.bc.ca/provincial-elections/provincial-candidates/candidate-list/

[Hatman 🍁]

Three ridings with just 2 candidates on the ballot (all Lib vs NDP, obviously); Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows (NDP held marginal), Richmond South Centre (historically safe Liberal), and Surrey-Green Timbers (safe NDP).

I suppose without the Greens on the ballot, the NDP could pick up Richmond SC? The idea of the NDP winning any seats in Richmond seems alien to me, but I know they're likely to pick up Richmond-Queensborough this time.

[Hatman 🍁]

Queensborough is larger than I thought (9k), so definitely enough to make that riding closer.

Three ridings with just 2 candidates on the ballot (all Lib vs NDP, obviously); Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows (NDP held marginal), Richmond South Centre (historically safe Liberal), and Surrey-Green Timbers (safe NDP).

I suppose without the Greens on the ballot, the NDP could pick up Richmond SC? The idea of the NDP winning any seats in Richmond seems alien to me, but I know they're likely to pick up Richmond-Queensborough this time.

I think there is generational divide within the Chinese community.  Most that came over in the 80s and 90s before Hong Kong handover always go BC Liberal as they have a strong anti-socialist bent and even though NDP are nothing like communist party, sort of like Vietnamese and Cuban-Americans voting heavily GOP although former much less so.  NDP gaining in Richmond amongst millennial Chinese who weren't around when parents came over and instead likely vote the same way millennials across province do.  So its more thanks to generational change, not NDP picking up previous BC Liberals voters, but rather NDP winning most new voters who become of age but weren't earlier.

Fun fact: the Vietnamese in Ottawa are very pro-NDP, or at least are pro-Dewar. Paul Dewar's mother was instrumental in settling Vietnamese refugees after the war when she was mayor.  Walking through Chinatown (which is full full of Vietnamese restaurants) during the election, lots of storefronts would have Paul Dewar signs.

[Hatman 🍁]

Needs more Lotuslander

no

[Hatman 🍁]

Sure there are informal alliances between the NDP and various municipal parties and groupings but again it’s informal. I’m pretty sure that if I live in Burnaby and I join the NDP I don’t automatically become a member of the BCA and I’m also 100% certain that if I pay the BC NDP $20 a year to be a member not one penny of that goes to the BCA. The BC Liberals are also linked to the NPA in Vancouver but that is the least of their problems! And every party has issues with party members being more radical than the politicians especially when in government and there are always tensions between the federal and provincial party. You know if I lived in Alberta and joined the NDP to support Rachel Notley, I’m also automatically a member of the federal NDP which opposes pipelines! But people just have to agree to disagree with others in their party sometimes!

PS: the current mayor of Burnaby ran against the supposedly “NDP affiliated BCA” mayor and won. But the current mayor is also an NDP supporter! And the mayor of Vancouver Kennedy Stewart was an NDP MP but ran as a non-partisan independent and won

No, you're just wrong.  If you join the NDP provincially, you automatically become a member of both the federal NDP and any municipal NDP organization including the BCA or the RCA.

{{citationneeded}}

I have never heard of such a thing. Not saying you're wrong, but the notion seems preposterous, so I'm going to need some sources.

[Hatman 🍁]

I did some research. It costs $40 to be a member of the Burnaby Citizens Association (double what it costs to be a member of the BC NDP). If you want to be a member you have to check off a box that says you are a member of the NDP...so clearly you have to be an NDP member to join the BCA - but you do have to join - it is not automatic. In other words all BCA members are also NDP members but not all NDP members in Burnaby are BCA members - you have to join and pay a membership fee  

Wow! I am legitimately shocked that the NDP is that formally tied to a municipal party, a successful one at that. I suppose it helps that the BCA doesn't have "NDP" in the name. This is true for the RCA as well? Are there any other parties like that?

[Hatman 🍁]

 He has a big enough lead that all he to avoid was doing anything stupid which he did.

Apparently he did, by saying he doesn't see colour? I mean, that's not going to lose votes to the Liberals, but could lose votes to the Greens. Though, I don't think that many people care about that kind of SJW stuff anyways. I mean, the black face thing didn't hurt Trudeau that much, and that was say worse.

[Hatman 🍁]

Is this the first time an incumbent has had to step down during an election? In a "safe" seat too (I suppose it was going to be close this time though)

[Hatman 🍁]

Is this the first time an incumbent has had to step down during an election? In a "safe" seat too (I suppose it was going to be close this time though)

Sure there have been other, but would have to dig back in history quite a ways.  Closest I can think of was Derek Zeisman in British Columbia Southern Interior in 2006.  This was a conservative held riding, but Jim Gouk, outgoing MP retired.  Conservative candidate Derek Zeisman was dropped by Harper after story surfaced he had smuggled booze over the border.  NDP flipped the riding and interestingly enough have held it since.

Not a safe riding though. Gouk won it by 700 votes in 2004. The NDP were going to win it regardless.

[Hatman 🍁]

Lots of ridings going NDP that would seem crazy even three years ago. But they couldn't flip fraser-nicola. Any idea why?

[Hatman 🍁]

Lots of ridings going NDP that would seem crazy even three years ago. But they couldn't flip fraser-nicola. Any idea why?

Skeena is another interior one-that-got-away that *should* have been low hanging fruit for the NDP.

An interior riding they lost by 10 points last time? Not that disappointing, even if it used to be reliably NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, I saw a poll that came out today that said that plurality of federal Liberals still backed the BC Liberals (a bit of a dubious notion TBH). Duping low information voters is probably helping more than it's hurting. I will become a problem if the Conservatives ever both to run a full slate, though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Fairly surprised the NDP couldn't flip Fraser-Nicola. What went on there?

So, it looks like the NDP picked up 2 seats on the mail-ins, and the Liberals picked up West Van from the Greens. Kinda sad for them.