BC Election on October 24th

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I mean the main thing that has changed is that this version of the BC NDP is significantly less radical than many previous versions and is also capable of running the proverbial whelk stall without accidentally managing to burn it down. Hard to be afraid of John Horgan, and that changes the tone of political life a lot.

[DL]

Ok I will agree that this NDP is less “radical” than the Barrett government was in 1972 but how is it any less “radical” than the NDP was under Harcourt or even Glen Clark for that matter

[DL]

I did hear from a number of sources BC Liberals internals are much more optimistic and expect them to win 34-40 seats, 37 or 38 most likely.  I think they are making same mistake Romney made in assuming a lower turnout than it will be, but I guess we will find out soon or at least get an idea.  My guess is still BC Liberals get in 20s although wouldn't be surprised due to NDP strength in mail in ballots BC Liberals finish tonight in low 30s and fall into 20s after mail in ballots counted.

If that is truly what the BC Liberal internal numbers were Saying then they need to fire their pollster!

[Hatman 🍁]

Lots of ridings going NDP that would seem crazy even three years ago. But they couldn't flip fraser-nicola. Any idea why?

Skeena is another interior one-that-got-away that *should* have been low hanging fruit for the NDP.

An interior riding they lost by 10 points last time? Not that disappointing, even if it used to be reliably NDP.

[DL]

I think incumbency is a bigger factor in many of those interior ridings than is the case in the cities so if you have a personally popular BC Liberal incumbent in Skeena he is way more likely to buck the trend and get re-elected than would a BC Liberal in Vancouver

[adma]

Lots of ridings going NDP that would seem crazy even three years ago. But they couldn't flip fraser-nicola. Any idea why?

Skeena is another interior one-that-got-away that *should* have been low hanging fruit for the NDP.

An interior riding they lost by 10 points last time? Not that disappointing, even if it used to be reliably NDP.

Except insofar as it's a far north interior sort of riding named "Skeena", the notion of which conjures up mental associations with the federal entity of the same name.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ok I will agree that this NDP is less “radical” than the Barrett government was in 1972 but how is it any less “radical” than the NDP was under Harcourt or even Glen Clark for that matter

That government would be covered by the remark about the whelk stall.

[adma]

Ok I will agree that this NDP is less “radical” than the Barrett government was in 1972 but how is it any less “radical” than the NDP was under Harcourt or even Glen Clark for that matter

That government would be covered by the remark about the whelk stall.

And it, together with Rae in Ontario, cemented the crippling notion of the NDP as a clown-car in power (Romanow in Sask being the exception that proved the rule)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ok I will agree that this NDP is less “radical” than the Barrett government was in 1972 but how is it any less “radical” than the NDP was under Harcourt or even Glen Clark for that matter

That government would be covered by the remark about the whelk stall.

And it, together with Rae in Ontario, cemented the crippling notion of the NDP as a clown-car in power (Romanow in Sask being the exception that proved the rule)

Glen Clark is, of course, a regular captain of industry these days, exactly the sort of person who used to regard Glen Clark the politician as a public menace, because Canadian politics wouldn't be Canadian politics if it did not frequently feel like heavy-handed satire.

[warandwar]

The whelk stall is on unceded land, i presume.

I don't know if "more radical" is the right term, but the sort of person who would see the Liberals as sensible forward thinking moderates in the 90s was very much put off by them this time (confidential source in Kits Point liked Sam Sullivan but voted for "the Party").

I imagine much of this is tied into the lack of trade union militancy. Glen Clark was to the right of Horgan, i'd reckon

[DL]

I don't know if "more radical" is the right term, but the sort of person who would see the Liberals as sensible forward thinking moderates in the 90s was very much put off by them this time (confidential source in Kits Point liked Sam Sullivan but voted for "the Party").

Actually back in the 90s the BC Liberals were a much more rightwing party than they are now. They were positioning themselves as the reincarnation of Social Credit and they ran on platforms of drastics cuts to social services in 1996 and 2001 and they also pandered to anti-Indigenous racism back then by promising to make any First nations treaties subject to approval by a referendum of all of BC - Andrew Wilkinson would seem positively leftwing compared to the Gordoin Campbell of the late 90s.

But i think the political centre of gravity in BC has changed drastically since then. Back in the 90s and 00s, BC was voting heavily for the Reform Party and the Canadian Alliance and was seen as a bit of a hotbed of rightwing populism - that is all gone. BC has followed a very similar path to California - one a Republican leaning state that is now a super safe Dem state. The other thing to consider is that through so many elections the BC Liberals had this massive cash advantage because BC was the "wild west" of campaign finance - that all changed when the NDP banned corporate and union donations  - leaving the Liberals suddenly broke

[Benjamin Frank]

Lots of ridings going NDP that would seem crazy even three years ago. But they couldn't flip fraser-nicola. Any idea why?

Fraser-Nicola, Skeena and Columbia River-Revelstoke were three ridings I and the riding prediction sites predicted would go to the NDP.

In the case of Fraser-Nicola, the NDP was hurt by their nomination battle.  The obnoxious former NDP MLA Harry Lali tried to run again for the nomination, but was blocked from running in favor of a person whom he defeated for the nomination in 2017.

The NDP riding executive all quit over this and, one of them, former NDP federal candidate, Dennis Adamson ran as an independent and received 673 votes while the NDP lost the riding by 385 votes (as of now.)


The expectations based on the polling from myself and the riding prediction sites were that the NDP would make a comeback in the interior, not make major gains in the Fraser Valley.  So, the total number of seats the NDP has won so far is the same as predicted, but the seats  aren't entirely as expected.

[DL]

If only Lotuslander was around to comment on the NDP landslide... pardon the schadenfreude

[adma]

I don't know if "more radical" is the right term, but the sort of person who would see the Liberals as sensible forward thinking moderates in the 90s was very much put off by them this time (confidential source in Kits Point liked Sam Sullivan but voted for "the Party").

Actually back in the 90s the BC Liberals were a much more rightwing party than they are now. They were positioning themselves as the reincarnation of Social Credit and they ran on platforms of drastics cuts to social services in 1996 and 2001 and they also pandered to anti-Indigenous racism back then by promising to make any First nations treaties subject to approval by a referendum of all of BC - Andrew Wilkinson would seem positively leftwing compared to the Gordoin Campbell of the late 90s.

But i think the political centre of gravity in BC has changed drastically since then. Back in the 90s and 00s, BC was voting heavily for the Reform Party and the Canadian Alliance and was seen as a bit of a hotbed of rightwing populism - that is all gone. BC has followed a very similar path to California - one a Republican leaning state that is now a super safe Dem state.

And there was even a bit of a "yes and no" re the BC Libs' right-wingness in the 90s; largely because in the name of the big tent they still had to retain something of their class-of-1991 centrist spirit (Gordon Wilson's departure notwithstanding), not to mention Gordon Campbell himself representing the patrician-Vancouverite class--in the end, it was more of a Bill Bennett than Vander Zalm Socred that they were reincarnating.

And just generally, by today's "woke" cultural standards the 90s can seem more casually "right wing" no matter what side of the spectrum you're on (thus the comment below about Glen Clark being to the right of Horgan).

[adma]

The expectations based on the polling from myself and the riding prediction sites were that the NDP would make a comeback in the interior, not make major gains in the Fraser Valley.  So, the total number of seats the NDP has won so far is the same as predicted, but the seats  aren't entirely as expected.

Though the between-the-lines evidence of something like the 2015 (less so 2019) federal results might have offered hints of what was to come in the Fraser Valley--that is, the "Justin left" blazing a trail for the "Horgan left".

And I'm also how much of that miscalculation was born out of an underestimation of the Con/CHP vote factor, perhaps under a presumption than the BC Cons were too much of a dead party walking to be a valid protesty vote-park wherever they ran.  (In a way, it's like they were expected to be like the NB NDP in 2020, but turned out more like the N&L NDP in 2019--poor in candidate numbers, but compensating through ballot-box "efficiency".)

[mileslunn]

In terms of political spectrum, BC has changed alright although I think NDP in 90s had a very different coalition that today.  Back then it was more a union based one and since unions were quite militant, that led to strong class based politics much like you still see in Australia.  In fact most places have moved away from that and BC was just a latecomer.  Australia is perhaps only place I can think of that still votes on class based lines.  Even UK and New Zealand have abandoned this.  Today NDP is a more diverse, educated, younger, urban, and progressive coalition.  It includes a lot of low income types struggling to get by, but also many well paid skilled workers in areas like tech sector. 

BC Liberals are less your old money and more your rural resource and small business types.  In past, big money in BC didn't care for social conservatives, but they accepted them if that is what it took to get their tax cut.  You still have some of that which is why West Vancouver-Capilano and Vancouver-Quilchena stuck with BC Liberals, but a much smaller subset than during Campbell era.  Today most well to do are high skilled university grads like engineers, doctors, and in tech sector and for them tax rates are not top priority.  Sure they like lower taxes, but there are many things more important so as long as taxes don't get too crazy, they will look at other issues they care about.  Whereas with old money, tax rates was their top issue. 

I don't think BC Liberals are dead by any means and eventually people will fatigue of NDP, but I do think idea pro free enterprise coalition when united always wins is clearly over.  BC Liberals essentially need to define who they are and what they stand for.  Up until now its mostly been what they are not and what they are against and that won't work in future.  They need stand for something rather than just against.  I also think if Trump loses badly, O'Toole loses next election badly and Kenney loses in 2023 while Ford sticks to his more moderate tone and wins again in 2022, this will be a strong signal to right of party that their views are a dead end.  BC Liberals unlike federal Tories still have a long history of winning and those who are more moderate if those things happen will have a stronger hand to tell the more right wing elements to go.

Other solution is like Australia and Germany is split in two, but don't run candidates against each other.  In interior, only run a Conservative candidate while only Liberal in Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island and then form a coalition.  Has its risks but at least that might be the long term way to go.

[lilTommy]

What seats could realistically flip to the NDP after all the mail-in's have been counted?

Fraser-Nicola, Vancouver-Langara, Vernon-Monashee, Abbostford-Mission?

Then we have Chilliwack-Kent, the NDP is currently leading but if the mail-in's favour Throness, this could flip back to him

Richmond South Centre is also very tight, NDP lead. If the Mail-in's favour the BCLiberals this could flip to them

[Jeppe]

I think there’s approximately 6k mail-in ballots per constituency. The NDP’s lead among those voters  is almost 30 points, compared to their 10 point victory with in-person ballots. So, I’d wager that the NDP approximately nets 1000 votes over the Liberals in each constituency. Of course, this will differ by constituency, based on how many mail-in ballots there actually are for each constituency.

[Oryxslayer]

I think there’s approximately 6k mail-in ballots per constituency. The NDP’s lead among those voters  is almost 30 points, compared to their 10 point victory with in-person ballots. So, I’d wager that the NDP approximately nets 1000 votes over the Liberals in each constituency. Of course, this will differ by constituency, based on how many mail-in ballots there actually are for each constituency.

For example, there are a lot of mail ballots in the Vancouver seats, but CBC projected the greens won Sea-to-Sky because their margin is larger than the mail ballots left in the district.

[DL]

I think there’s approximately 6k mail-in ballots per constituency. The NDP’s lead among those voters  is almost 30 points, compared to their 10 point victory with in-person ballots. So, I’d wager that the NDP approximately nets 1000 votes over the Liberals in each constituency. Of course, this will differ by constituency, based on how many mail-in ballots there actually are for each constituency.

For example, there are a lot of mail ballots in the Vancouver seats, but CBC projected the greens won Sea-to-Sky because their margin is larger than the mail ballots left in the district.

Not sure how that could be - the Green margin is 600 votes and there were over 7,000 vote by mail requests in West Van-Sea to Sky - and we know that about 2/3 of mail in requests were returned so there should be about 5,000 more votes to count in that seat.

[Oryxslayer]

I think there’s approximately 6k mail-in ballots per constituency. The NDP’s lead among those voters  is almost 30 points, compared to their 10 point victory with in-person ballots. So, I’d wager that the NDP approximately nets 1000 votes over the Liberals in each constituency. Of course, this will differ by constituency, based on how many mail-in ballots there actually are for each constituency.

For example, there are a lot of mail ballots in the Vancouver seats, but CBC projected the greens won Sea-to-Sky because their margin is larger than the mail ballots left in the district.

Not sure how that could be - the Green margin is 600 votes and there were over 7,000 vote by mail requests in West Van-Sea to Sky - and we know that about 2/3 of mail in requests were returned so there should be about 5,000 more votes to count in that seat.

Then CBC commetators are  full of BS. Simple.

[King of Kensington]

Why did Chilliwack go NDP?

[DL]

Why did Chilliwack go NDP?

A few reasons:

1. General province wide swing and a rising tide raises all ships
2. Vote splits - there were Conservative and Independent candidates in both Chilliwack seats
3. Chilliwack is changing a lot. It used to be a Fraser Valley Bible belt town...now its become more of an exurb of Vancouver and young families who can't afford housing closer in are moving there - so its a totally different place than it used to be

[DL]

This link shows the number of vote by mail requests per riding. Note that 724,000 requests were received and the latest estimate is that well over 500,000 mail in ballots were returned.

https://elections.bc.ca/docs/2020-vote-by-mail-statistics.pdf

West Vancouver-Seat to Sky had 7,700 requests and if we assume the return rate is about the same two-thirds as across the province there should be about 5,000 ballots to be counted, plus several hundred other absentee and special ballots.

Note that there are huge numbers of mail in requests in urban seats and on vancouver island and much less in the interior

[Benjamin Frank]

This link shows the number of vote by mail requests per riding. Note that 724,000 requests were received and the latest estimate is that well over 500,000 mail in ballots were returned.

https://elections.bc.ca/docs/2020-vote-by-mail-statistics.pdf

West Vancouver-Seat to Sky had 7,700 requests and if we assume the return rate is about the same two-thirds as across the province there should be about 5,000 ballots to be counted, plus several hundred other absentee and special ballots.

Note that there are huge numbers of mail in requests in urban seats and on vancouver island and much less in the interior.

There were about 1.785 million in the preliminary vote count in 2017 (mostly before the provisional ballots were counted, not sure what happened to the provisional vote in this election.)   This time before the mail in votes have been counted (and provisional votes?)  there have been just over 1.21 million votes counted.

That is just over 2/3 of the preliminary vote of 2017.  By region, the total number of votes counted so far in Greater Vancouver and Vancouver Island is about 2/3 of the preliminary votes of the 2017 election but the total number of votes counted in the Interior so far is about 3/4 of the preliminary votes of the 2017 election.

There were an additional 185,000 votes for the the final total of around 1,975,000 in 2017.  Unless there are provisional ballots as well in this election, the final vote count for 2020 will likely be somewhere just under the final preliminary vote count in 2017. (Maybe 1.75 million.)