BC Election on October 24th
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mileslunn
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« Reply #300 on: November 02, 2020, 06:50:51 PM »

How likely are we to see a split it in the BC Liberals?

We know Bennett in Kootenay East would likely side with a more conservative minded Party; The biggest competition to the BCLiberals in Peace River North and Peace River South is already the BCConservatives (both won over 30% of the votes there)

A split might not necessarily be bad either; we have now the BCNDP with a more natural ally in the BC Greens if we ever get to a minority situation again. The BCLiberals do not have such an ally... yet. Is their a chance we see these three MLAs become sitting BCConservatives? (say if the BCLiberals new leadership try and maintain this more moderate right-of-centre approach)

Depends on who is next leader and how NDP performs.  Better NDP performs more likely split will be.  Worse they perform less likely.  Its very easy to unite people that have little in common when you have a common enemy.  Much tougher when you lack that.  Democrats have people all the way from your Lincoln Project type Republicans to hardcore progressives like AOC and Bernie Sanders.  Normally you wouldn't see people like John Kasich and AOC supporting same party.  Only happening because of common enemy.  Thus if NDP as hated by 2024 as in 90s, that will be easy to do.  But if Horgan keeps his current approval, much tougher.
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Benjamin Frank
Frank
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« Reply #301 on: November 06, 2020, 03:13:59 PM »

The mail in votes start coming in today.  I've been up watching the U.S returns, can somebody explain this to me.  Have additional votes been added in?:

https://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/GE-2020-10-24.html
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Benjamin Frank
Frank
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« Reply #302 on: November 07, 2020, 01:29:14 AM »
« Edited: November 07, 2020, 05:58:16 AM by Frank »

As far as I can tell, 87 people all named In progress have won every riding!
https://elections.bc.ca/docs/report-status-of-final-count.pdf

OK, that was stupid, sorry.

Being serious, updates have been posted:
1.New Democrat Pam Alexis now ahead of Liberal Simon Gibson by 547 in Abbotsford-Mission (would be gain for NDP)

2.New Democrat Kelli Paddon now ahead of Laurie Throness by 414 in Chilliwack-Kent

3.Green Leader Sonia Fursteneau's lead has dropped to 770 over New Democrat Rob Douglas in Cowichan Valley

4.New Democrat Aman Singh now ahead of Liberal Jas Johal by 993 in Richmond-Queensborough

5.Nathan Cullen now over 50% in Stikine

6.New Democrat Brenda Bailey now ahead of Liberal Sam Sullivan by 1,413 in Vancouver-False Creek

7.David Eby now only slightly under 50% in Vancouver-Point Grey

8.New Democrat Harwinder Sandhu now ahead of Liberal Eric Foster by 50 in Vernon-Monashee (would be gain for NDP.)

9.Green Jeremy Valeriote ahead of Liberal Jordan Sturdy by 729 in West Vancouver-Sea to Sky

https://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/GE-2020-10-24_Candidate.html

If these NDP gains hold, that changes the count to 57 New Democrats, 27 Liberals and 3 Greens.

Those were considered the 2 most likely ridings to switch, but the NDP was also fairly close in Fraser-Nicola, Surrey-White Rock and Vancouver-Langara and I'm not sure if they've been updated.

Surrey South and Peter Milobar in Kamloops were also under 10% wins, but the Liberals seem to have held them.
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Benjamin Frank
Frank
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« Reply #303 on: November 07, 2020, 03:18:44 PM »
« Edited: November 07, 2020, 04:25:34 PM by Frank »

No comments about the updated results?

Where is everybody?

Edit to add: I hate you all. Sad
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Benjamin Frank
Frank
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« Reply #304 on: November 07, 2020, 04:43:14 PM »

More updates because there is so much interest here. Squinting

1.In both of the other Abbotsford ridings, the Liberal candidates have dropped from approximately 47% of the vote on election day to approximately 45% of the vote and Mike De Jong is now ahead by just under 10% (9% to be precise.)  This is evidence the NDP win in Abbotsford-Mission was not some bizarre anomaly. 

2.Jackie Tegart's lead over Aaron Sumexheltza in Fraser-Nicola is down to 282, but I'm not sure how many ballots are left to be counted.

3.Same deal in Kamloops-North Thompson where Peter Milobar's lead is down to 520, not sure how many ballots are left to be counted.

4.Aman Singh's lead over Jas Johal in Richmond-Queensborough is now up to 1,678.

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Benjamin Frank
Frank
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« Reply #305 on: November 07, 2020, 06:46:09 PM »
« Edited: November 07, 2020, 08:53:06 PM by Frank »

KEY RACE ALERT

Liberal Jordan Sturdy is now ahead of Green Jeremy Valeriote by 41 votes in West Vancouver-Sea to Sky.

The only marginal compensation for the Greens should they lose that riding is that Sonia Furstenau has increased her lead to 1,184.

KEY RACE UPDATE:
Apparently all the votes have been counted and Jordan Sturdy has won by 41 votes.  I'm sure they'll be a recount.

https://www.nsnews.com/news/in-a-surprise-twist-liberals-hold-on-to-west-vancouver-sea-to-sky-by-41-votes-1.24235356
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Benjamin Frank
Frank
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« Reply #306 on: November 07, 2020, 06:52:52 PM »
« Edited: November 07, 2020, 06:59:45 PM by Frank »

Peter Milobar's lead is down to 407.

New Democrat Henry Yao has increased his lead in Richmond South Centre to 179.

New Democrat Rachna Singh in Surrey-Green Timbers has gone from 55.5% of the vote on election day to 58.3%
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Benjamin Frank
Frank
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« Reply #307 on: November 07, 2020, 09:04:53 PM »

1.New Democrat Harwinder Sandhu has increased her lead over Liberal Eric Foster in Vernon-Monashee to 282.

2.David Eby's vote share is now up to 51.3%

3.New Democrat Brenda Bailey has increased her lead over Liberal Sam Sullivan in Vancouver-False Creek to 1,839.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #308 on: November 08, 2020, 11:31:43 AM »

More updates because there is so much interest here. Squinting

Thank you for doing these Smiley
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Benjamin Frank
Frank
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« Reply #309 on: November 08, 2020, 05:37:12 PM »
« Edited: November 08, 2020, 06:00:09 PM by Frank »

KEY RACE UPDATE
Peter Milobar is reelected in Kamloops-North Thompson by 198 votes.


Peter Milobar on what he credited his reelection to:  "Every morning for breakfast I have a bowl of Kam Loops and not a bowl of Fruit Loops."  Smiley

Also
Liberal Trevor Halford is elected in Surrey-White Rock over New Democrat Bryn Smith by 224 votes. (Insane that White Rock is this close.)

Trevor Halford on what he credited his election to: "Every morning for breakfast I have a bowl of Kam Loops and not a bowl of Fruit Loops."

And
Brenda Bailey is elected in Vancouver-False Creek over Liberal incumbent (now incum-broken) Sam Sullivan by 2,267 votes.

Brenda Bailey on what she credited her election to: "Every morning for breakfast I have a bowl of Kam Loops and not a bowl of Fruit Loops."

Also
New Democrat Harwinder Sandhu is elected in Vernon-Monashee over Liberal incumbent Eric Foster by 424 votes.  

Harwinder Sandhu on what she credited her election to: "Every morning for breakfast I have a bowl of fruit loops and not a bowl of Kam Loops.  I don't think there even is a cereal named Kam Loops.  As a registered nurse though I don't really recommend eating sugary cereal."
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Benjamin Frank
Frank
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« Reply #310 on: November 08, 2020, 06:08:25 PM »

There are still five ridings without final vote counts: Courtney-Comox, Oak Bay-Gordon Head, Penticton, Saanich South and Vancouver-Fairview.  However, none of the leads in any of these five ridings will change over with whatever is left to be counted.

The only other riding of significance in regard with the mail in votes I'm not sure I've mentioned is Vancouver-Langara where Liberal Michael Lee was re-elected.  He not only increased his margin of victory over the initial count, he was one of a handful of Liberals to increase his vote percentage from the election day count to the final count.

With the likely tiny number of votes still to be added into the final count, Elections B.C reports the total valid votes at 1,882,392, which is higher than was expected to be the final total and not that far off from 2017.

The party percentages right now are (with these handful of additional votes still to come)
NDP: 47.7%
Liberal: 33.8
Green 15.1

This is a slightly better vote percentage for the Liberals than in 1991, but, then, the Gordon Wilson B.C Liberals of 1991 aren't really the same party they are now.

Also, given the drubbing the pollsters took again in the United States, a 14% NDP win is right inline with what the polling showed in British Columbia.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #311 on: November 08, 2020, 07:11:54 PM »

Only one constituency left to finish counting (Fairview), so here's a regional breakdown - doubt it will change much:

Vancouver Island
NDP - 12 (50.9%)
GP - 2 (26.9%)
Lib - 0 (20.8%)
8.6% Lib-NDP, 5.3% GP-NDP

Greater Vancouver
NDP - 35 (52.4%)
Lib - 8 (34.0%)
GP - 0 (11.8%)
6.4% Lib-NDP

Rest of Mainland
Lib - 20 (42.6%)
NDP - 10 (37.4%)
GP - 0 (12.4%)
6.7% Lib-NDP


Although dead-on for my popular vote prediction & pretty close for the seat count, I was wrong about the swing: Vancouver saw a smaller NDP swing than the mainland did or even Vancouver Island (if you look at Liberal to NDP). Given the big NDP swing in Vancouver last time (5.4%) contrasting with a weak one on the Island (1.4%) and one against them on the mainland (2.9%) I suppose I should have guessed that the other regions might catch up a little to Vancouver this time out.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #312 on: November 08, 2020, 07:45:44 PM »

. . . and the final tally is done. Have updated the pdf file for BC elections now (https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1Pa-73KSfj_nmezJ0WKTKrjlDW6RFUJJR) - not only adding 2020's results, but also correcting some mistakes on the 2017 page.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #313 on: November 09, 2020, 04:09:32 AM »

KEY RACE ALERT

Liberal Jordan Sturdy is now ahead of Green Jeremy Valeriote by 41 votes in West Vancouver-Sea to Sky.

The only marginal compensation for the Greens should they lose that riding is that Sonia Furstenau has increased her lead to 1,184.

KEY RACE UPDATE:
Apparently all the votes have been counted and Jordan Sturdy has won by 41 votes.  I'm sure they'll be a recount.

https://www.nsnews.com/news/in-a-surprise-twist-liberals-hold-on-to-west-vancouver-sea-to-sky-by-41-votes-1.24235356

How did this happen? I thought this was the riding that they'd called because there weren't enough mail-in votes to flip it?
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Benjamin Frank
Frank
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« Reply #314 on: November 09, 2020, 06:50:44 AM »

KEY RACE ALERT

Liberal Jordan Sturdy is now ahead of Green Jeremy Valeriote by 41 votes in West Vancouver-Sea to Sky.

The only marginal compensation for the Greens should they lose that riding is that Sonia Furstenau has increased her lead to 1,184.

KEY RACE UPDATE:
Apparently all the votes have been counted and Jordan Sturdy has won by 41 votes.  I'm sure they'll be a recount.

https://www.nsnews.com/news/in-a-surprise-twist-liberals-hold-on-to-west-vancouver-sea-to-sky-by-41-votes-1.24235356

How did this happen? I thought this was the riding that they'd called because there weren't enough mail-in votes to flip it?


Oh that.   No, that was based on one reporter from the CBC and that person just got their facts wrong. That was recognized shortly after.
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Benjamin Frank
Frank
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« Reply #315 on: November 09, 2020, 06:55:54 AM »

This is how the mail-in and other absentee votes went:

Total 672,695
NDP: 352,523, 52.4%
Lib:   208,249, 31.0
Green: 98,813, 14.7
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #316 on: November 09, 2020, 11:15:25 AM »

Fairly surprised the NDP couldn't flip Fraser-Nicola. What went on there?

So, it looks like the NDP picked up 2 seats on the mail-ins, and the Liberals picked up West Van from the Greens. Kinda sad for them.
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DL
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« Reply #317 on: November 09, 2020, 11:34:25 AM »

Fairly surprised the NDP couldn't flip Fraser-Nicola. What went on there?


I'm not that surprised...while the Liberal only had a 400-odd vote margin on election, the number of mail in votes in that riding was quite small so the NDP would have needed a bigger than usual advantage in them
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lilTommy
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« Reply #318 on: November 09, 2020, 12:02:42 PM »

Fairly surprised the NDP couldn't flip Fraser-Nicola. What went on there?


I'm not that surprised...while the Liberal only had a 400-odd vote margin on election, the number of mail in votes in that riding was quite small so the NDP would have needed a bigger than usual advantage in them

Also there was a rather bitter internal battle within the local riding association of the BCNDP around the nomination. Personally I think it was Lali (former MLA) who wanted the nomination, again, but.

https://www.radionl.com/2020/09/14/66466/
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