BC Election on October 24th

[lilTommy]

The federal Liberals did win Kelowna in 2015, so I don't see why the BC NDP can't win there now.

Kelowna has lots of well to do seniors so don't see it going BC NDP.  If you look at recent elections, BC Liberals won it by over 30 points, so NDP would need around a 30 point lead to win there.  Basically if NDP is winning Kelowna, they are looking at around 70 seats province wide, which I don't see happening.

I largely agree with you but places do evolve demographically. I hear that Kelowna is growing very quickly and more and more young people are moving there. I'm not expecting the NDP to ever sweep it - but at some point as it gets cut into several seats, maybe one of them is more "inner city" than the others...you know up until the 1970s Victoria was a total dead zone for the NDP!

If we are looking at the Kelowna-Okanagan area, based on 2017, the NDP targets should be:

->Boundary-Similkameen - 32% with no Conservative candidate, a low BCGreen vote. If the Cons runs here that will eat into BCL and the BCNDP already polling high.
->Vernon-Monashee - 29% no BCC, high BCGreen vote (21%). If the BCGreen tanks some, and would likely shift to the NDP could be a target.
https://338canada.com/bc/map.htm - predicts only Boundary-Similkameen as a BCNDP pick-up. As always take that as you will.

Everything else is plus 50% for the BCL, should be one of the only strong areas for BCLs.

[lilTommy]

and now Research Co has released their second poll of the campaign and they have the NDP lead increasing from 7 points when the election was called to 12 points now

BC NDP 48% (+4)
BC Liberals 36% (-1)
BC Green Party 13% (=)
BC Conservative Party 2% (-3)

Once again, the theory that a collapse of the BC Conservatives would benefit the Liberals has been exploded - if anything its the NDP that has picked up from the BC Cons

https://researchco.ca/2020/10/08/bcelxn2020-october/

This is much more consistent with the other polls; other then Insight West's poll from Sept 22nd (still showing an NDP lead of 13%) no other poll has the NDP below 45%. The average lead for the NDP is 14.6% based on all the polling since the election was called.

[lilTommy]

New poll by Léger (Oct. 6-9)

NDP - 50% (up 3 points)
Liberals - 35% (up 4 points)
Greens - 12% (flat)
Conservatives - 2% (down 7)

So the only real change from Légers earlier poll is the evaporation of the BC Conservative vote but it basically splits between NDP and Liberals.

https://leger360.com/voting-intentions/provincial-politics-british-columbia-october-13-2020/

Similar numbers this morning from Ipsos

BC NDP - 52%
BC Libs - 34%
Greens - 11%

The other thing of note is the slowly slipping BCGreen vote. Here it is showing in the two polls at 12/11%, in 2017 that provincial vote was 16.8%

[lilTommy]

 He has a big enough lead that all he to avoid was doing anything stupid which he did.

Apparently he did, by saying he doesn't see colour? I mean, that's not going to lose votes to the Liberals, but could lose votes to the Greens. Though, I don't think that many people care about that kind of SJW stuff anyways. I mean, the black face thing didn't hurt Trudeau that much, and that was say worse.

And promptly after the debate apologized or tried to clarify it:

“Saying ‘I don’t see colour’ causes pain and makes people feel unseen,” he wrote. “I’m sorry. I’ll never fully understand, as a white person, the lived reality of systemic racism. I’m listening, learning, and I’ll keep working every day to do better.”

Agreed, I think he made this statement right there to reach out to any left SJW in the NDP's hardcore support base... just to make sure they stick put with the NDP.

[lilTommy]

The inundation of final polls has begun...so far it all still points to an NDP landslide

Leger

BC NDP - 47%
BC Liberals - 36%
BC Greens - 14%

Ipsos

BC NDP - 51%
BC Liberals - 34%
BC Greens - 12%

More details:

Ipsos - https://globalnews.ca/news/7414817/bc-election-2020-final-poll/?fbclid=IwAR1DfOClWWNgAevL16dybL8EmcHqUhwTOsD81Sceyh8zt6I5cfzOdccFlqE

Leger - https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/poll-shows-b-c-ndp-retains-large-lead-over-liberals-as-election-day-looms

I thought this note was interesting, from Ipsos:
"Decided in-person voters favour the NDP by 11 points (48 per cent NDP, 37 per cent Liberals, 12 per cent Greens).

The mail-in ballots, which will be counted at the earliest 13 days after election day, are expected to overwhelmingly favour the BC NDP. The poll suggests 57 per cent of mail-in voters support the NDP, 29 per cent the Liberals and 13 per cent the Greens.

“This means that what is reported on election day could shift a few points toward the NDP when the mail-in votes are counted,” Braid said.

“Of course, this shift will not be the same on a riding-by-riding basis.”"

[lilTommy]

What seats could realistically flip to the NDP after all the mail-in's have been counted?

Fraser-Nicola, Vancouver-Langara, Vernon-Monashee, Abbostford-Mission?

Then we have Chilliwack-Kent, the NDP is currently leading but if the mail-in's favour Throness, this could flip back to him

Richmond South Centre is also very tight, NDP lead. If the Mail-in's favour the BCLiberals this could flip to them

[lilTommy]

This was shared on my FB:
"Based on the preliminary BC provincial results, I've computed the regional vote-shares by party, based on the Valid Ballots shown (general and advance). The number of mail-in ballot requests are also shown... " I don't think Elections BC released the number of returned Mail-ins yet.

[lilTommy]

How likely are we to see a split it in the BC Liberals?

We know Bennett in Kootenay East would likely side with a more conservative minded Party; The biggest competition to the BCLiberals in Peace River North and Peace River South is already the BCConservatives (both won over 30% of the votes there)

A split might not necessarily be bad either; we have now the BCNDP with a more natural ally in the BC Greens if we ever get to a minority situation again. The BCLiberals do not have such an ally... yet. Is their a chance we see these three MLAs become sitting BCConservatives? (say if the BCLiberals new leadership try and maintain this more moderate right-of-centre approach)

[lilTommy]

Fairly surprised the NDP couldn't flip Fraser-Nicola. What went on there?

I'm not that surprised...while the Liberal only had a 400-odd vote margin on election, the number of mail in votes in that riding was quite small so the NDP would have needed a bigger than usual advantage in them

Also there was a rather bitter internal battle within the local riding association of the BCNDP around the nomination. Personally I think it was Lali (former MLA) who wanted the nomination, again, but.

https://www.radionl.com/2020/09/14/66466/