BC Election on October 24th

[Storr]

I stumbled upon a neat CBC article: 10 ridings to watch in B.C. on election night

Of course both Maple Ridge ridings are #1 and #2. lol

Also an interesting factoid:  "The NDP hasn't won a seat in Richmond since 1972."

[Tender Branson]

Advance voting update:

472.000 have voted early so far.

305.000 mail ballots (of 725.000 requested) have been returned so far.

22% of the 3.5 million eligible voters have already voted.

I expect this to rise to 30-35% by Saturday.

Considering overall turnout is always between 51-61% in BC, the majority of votes will be cast early or by mail this time.

[DL]

The inundation of final polls has begun...so far it all still points to an NDP landslide

Leger

BC NDP - 47%
BC Liberals - 36%
BC Greens - 14%

Ipsos

BC NDP - 51%
BC Liberals - 34%
BC Greens - 12%

[lilTommy]

The inundation of final polls has begun...so far it all still points to an NDP landslide

Leger

BC NDP - 47%
BC Liberals - 36%
BC Greens - 14%

Ipsos

BC NDP - 51%
BC Liberals - 34%
BC Greens - 12%

More details:

Ipsos - https://globalnews.ca/news/7414817/bc-election-2020-final-poll/?fbclid=IwAR1DfOClWWNgAevL16dybL8EmcHqUhwTOsD81Sceyh8zt6I5cfzOdccFlqE

Leger - https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/poll-shows-b-c-ndp-retains-large-lead-over-liberals-as-election-day-looms

I thought this note was interesting, from Ipsos:
"Decided in-person voters favour the NDP by 11 points (48 per cent NDP, 37 per cent Liberals, 12 per cent Greens).

The mail-in ballots, which will be counted at the earliest 13 days after election day, are expected to overwhelmingly favour the BC NDP. The poll suggests 57 per cent of mail-in voters support the NDP, 29 per cent the Liberals and 13 per cent the Greens.

“This means that what is reported on election day could shift a few points toward the NDP when the mail-in votes are counted,” Braid said.

“Of course, this shift will not be the same on a riding-by-riding basis.”"

[Tender Branson]

Early voting is over.

Ca. 680.000 have done so.

Ca. 500.000 mail ballots have been returned so far.

1.18 Million of ca. 3.5 million registered voters have cast ballots already (34%).

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet coming out later today and Forum just before closing.  I think at this point, you would need a bigger miss than 2013 for BC Liberals to win which I don't see happening.  Not to mention, leaders with over 50% approval ratings almost never get defeated and all polls put Horgan north of 60%.  As the old saying goes, governments defeat themselves and clearly NDP is a long ways from that point. 

I did however get a BC Liberal e-mail saying their internal polls tied but I think as Joe Biden would say, that is a bunch of malarkey.  They are probably just saying that to motivate volunteers.  I am sure NDP in Saskatchewan will say something similar on Sunday and so will GOP in US.  Real question is how big a majority.  If NDP has a bad night I could see them getting only 50 seats while if a good night they might crack 70 seat mark.  For BC Liberals, I could see them falling as low as 12 seats under worse case scenario, but as high as 35 seats under best case scenario.

Personally I think the tighter is preferable as often when parties feel they are invincible, they get arrogant and do stupid things.  Also at 35 seats, would give BC Liberals more choices for whom to lead them into 2024.  If NDP feels 2024 is in the bag, they are not likely to do as good a job as if they feel they could potentially lose the election.

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet is out and it shows Horgan is going to win a yuge majority, its going to be yuge.

And here’s that final #bcpoli number

⁦
@bcndp
⁩ - 51%
⁦
@bcliberals
⁩ - 31%
⁦
@BCGreens
⁩ - 16%

[DistingFlyer]

My prediction:

NDP - 55 (48%)
Lib - 30 (34%)
GP - 2 (15%)

This would be a record NDP vote (beating 1979's 45.2%), but not a record majority (38 of 55 in 1972 still wins there).

I frankly expected the big NDP lead to erode over the campaign, as people pushed against the early election call, but it's held up quite well (as the Liberal campaign was pretty awful).

[Benjamin Frank]

My prediction:

NDP - 55 (48%)
Lib - 30 (34%)
GP - 2 (15%)

This would be a record NDP vote (beating 1979's 45.2%), but not a record majority (38 of 55 in 1972 still wins there).

I frankly expected the big NDP lead to erode over the campaign, as people pushed against the early election call, but it's held up quite well (as the Liberal campaign was pretty awful).

This seems to be the general consensus, even down to agreement on the specific seats each party will win, with one exception: you must have forgotten that in the safe Liberal riding in Chilliwack, the Liberal MLA and candidate, Laurie Throness, quit the party (or was tossed) and is now running as an independent.

This could swing the riding to the NDP, but most likely either the now independent Throness, or a city councilor running as an independent will win.

So, the consensus is
NDP 55
Liberal 29
Green 2
Independent 1

[DC Al Fine]

I stumbled upon a neat CBC article: 10 ridings to watch in B.C. on election night

Of course both Maple Ridge ridings are #1 and #2. lol

Also an interesting factoid:  "The NDP hasn't won a seat in Richmond since 1972."

CBC is notorious for that nonsense. They take close ridings from the previous election and call them ridings to watch with zero regard for changes in polling. 2015 was really bad for it. They were calling seats that the Liberals won by 5 in their worst result ever "ridings to watch", when Trudeau was in the lead

Like geez, if you're going to pay Eric Grenier all that money to model elections, at least talk to him before producing that silly article

[CumbrianLefty]

CBC is notorious for that nonsense. They take close ridings from the previous election and call them ridings to watch with zero regard for changes in polling. 2015 was really bad for it. They were calling seats that the Liberals won by 5 in their worst result ever "ridings to watch", when Trudeau was in the lead

Ah, nice to see total psephological illiteracy amongst political "journalists" is international

[DC Al Fine]

Another good example: In 2019 CBC called Calgary Centre a riding to watch and a "Liberal-Tory battleground". On election day, the Tories won the seat by 30%.

Edit:
Calgary

Liberals won by 1% in 2015
+ Modest national swing against government
+ Huge regional trend against government
+ Incumbent fired from cabinet for sexual harassment

Yeah, I don't think anyone in the Tory or Liberal camps were spending much time worrying about the result of that race.

[Estrella]

What's the state of provincial Conservatives? I know they're a joke, but I'd have thought that they'd be able to get at least like 5% now that Liberals are sinking like a rock (one thrown into the Salish Sea, presumably).

[the506]

They're usually good for 5-10% in the ridings they run in, but they're too small to recruit good candidates.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Like geez, if you're going to pay Eric Grenier all that money to model elections, at least talk to him before producing that silly article

I'm not sure Grenier would help much, IIRC his poll tracker just used universal swing for 2019 seat projections.

Philippe Fournier of 338Canada, now that's a more reliable source. CBC should ask him if he'd be interested in a fat Crown Corp paycheque.

[MaxQue]

Like geez, if you're going to pay Eric Grenier all that money to model elections, at least talk to him before producing that silly article

I'm not sure Grenier would help much, IIRC his poll tracker just used universal swing for 2019 seat projections.

Philippe Fournier of 338Canada, now that's a more reliable source. CBC should ask him if he'd be interested in a fat Crown Corp paycheque.

Already has a Macleans/L'Actualité deal and a government paycheck (physics teacher in a Montreal public college).

[adma]

Another good example: In 2019 CBC called Calgary Centre a riding to watch and a "Liberal-Tory battleground". On election day, the Tories won the seat by 30%.

Edit:
Calgary

Liberals won by 1% in 2015
+ Modest national swing against government
+ Huge regional trend against government
+ Incumbent fired from cabinet for sexual harassment

Yeah, I don't think anyone in the Tory or Liberal camps were spending much time worrying about the result of that race.

Though in cases like that, the psephological geek might figure it "one to watch" not for who wins, but for the scale of defeat...

[DC Al Fine]

Canada 2021: Trudeau is caught in bed with a dead girl and a live boy mid-campaign.

CBC: Cumberland-Colchester is a riding to watch on election night guys!... guys?

[mileslunn]

Surprised there isn't an 801 club yet?  I get impression a lot of BC Liberals, especially those not part of old guard want Wilkinson gone and will be pushing for him to resign tonight as results roll in.  In an internal e-mail, they claim internals show them tied, but either their internals are massively off or just saying that to motivate volunteers but know they are going to lose.  If internals are saying this, I would love to post election see how they got that data.  Even if we assume poor millennial turnout and high over 55, NDP is still ahead.  In fact it appears amongst over 55 crowd which has been reliably BC Liberal in past as well as male voters, NDP has now won them over.

I essentially see coalitions working this way since 2001:

2001:  BC Liberals were federal Liberals + PCs + Canadian Alliance while NDP just NDP

2005, 2009 and 2013: BC Liberals were federal Tories plus right half of federal Liberals while BC NDP were NDP + left half of federal Liberals.  Since federal Tories usually outperformed NDP, that is why they had the advantage.

In 2017 same thing but most federal Liberal/BC Liberal voters were people who voted Tory in 2011 but liberal in 2015 thus stuck with BC Liberals.  Most who supported federal Liberals in 2011 and BC Liberals in 2013 had swung over to NDP.

Today BC Liberals are really just federal Tory voters while most federal Liberals have joined federal NDP voters in voting BC NDP.  Since federal Liberals are more left wing than in past and BC NDP more centrist than in past, not too surprising.

A lot of centrist voters didn't exactly embrace BC Liberals' pro free enterprise attitude, they just felt they were better for economy but were open to a more moderate NDP.  Since NDP this time is less ideological than past three times in government, much of that group has switched to NDP.  BC Liberals can win this group back, but its no longer a given and will have to work for it.  By same time NDP needs to understand like any new voters to coalition, they can easily leave.  They should look at Harper in 2011 who win many traditional Liberal voters over, but since 2015 they have returned.  Or Boris Johnson in UK who won a lot of traditional Labour supporters over but polls suggest many are returning.

[Oryxslayer]

Since you brought up a BC Lib internal, now is probably a good time to talk about how BC won't count all their votes until after polls close in the US. The mail in ballots should be anywhere from 25%-35% of the final total, and they can't be opened tonight because BC law is worse than NY. The mail ballots could favor the NDP, meaning that the results tonight may favor the Libs by more than the end result.

[mileslunn]

Since you brought up a BC Lib internal, now is probably a good time to talk about how BC won't count all their votes until after polls close in the US. The mail in ballots should be anywhere from 25%-35% of the final total, and they can't be opened tonight because BC law is worse than NY. The mail ballots could favor the NDP, meaning that the results tonight may favor the Libs by more than the end result.

Absolutely.  Whatever BC Liberals get tonight, you can be sure it will go down once mail in ballots counted.  I would say any riding BC Liberals take tonight by less than 5% will probably get overturned once mail in ballots counted.

[Continential]

Also, can someone give me the links where someone could watch election night as I plan on updating the first post with the links.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Also, can someone give me the links where someone could watch election night as I plan on updating the first post with the links.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZigsL1uzjc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jh5raIZI41U

[Continential]

Also, can someone give me the links where someone could watch election night as I plan on updating the first post with the links.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZigsL1uzjc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jh5raIZI41U

Thanks.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Also, can someone give me the links where someone could watch election night as I plan on updating the first post with the links.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZigsL1uzjc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jh5raIZI41U

Thanks.

Results page: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/british-columbia/2020/results/