BC Election on October 24th

[Benjamin Frank]

Right now NDP has a big lead in polls and would easily get an majority, but calling an early opportunistic election during the middle of a pandemic with rising cases, could backfire.  The one thing NDP has going for them is the BC Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson is an incredibly weak leader so that might be their best saving grace.  If BC Liberals had a stronger leader, I somehow suspect they would have second thoughts about this.

Of early opportunistic ones in Canada, record is kind of mixed:

2000 Chretien calls and early one and pays off with stronger majority
2008 Harper calls an early one and gets a stronger minority
2020 Higgs in New Brunswick calls one and goes from minority to majority
2019 Pallister calls and early one and wins a decent size majority with only minor losses, but after record landslide in 2016, that was expected.

But some have not worked out so well

1990 David Peterson calls one with a 25 point lead and loses to Bob Rae
2015 Jim Prentice calls and early one and also results in NDP pulling off an upset

So its gamble.  Probably will work out, but I think Horgan's odds of a majority would have been even higher had he waited another year.

1997 Chretien nearly loses majority after being unable to explain the need for an early election call.

2011, Harper calls an early election and gains a majority.

[Benjamin Frank]

Right now NDP has a big lead in polls and would easily get an majority, but calling an early opportunistic election during the middle of a pandemic with rising cases, could backfire.  The one thing NDP has going for them is the BC Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson is an incredibly weak leader so that might be their best saving grace.  If BC Liberals had a stronger leader, I somehow suspect they would have second thoughts about this.

Of early opportunistic ones in Canada, record is kind of mixed:

2000 Chretien calls and early one and pays off with stronger majority
2008 Harper calls an early one and gets a stronger minority
2020 Higgs in New Brunswick calls one and goes from minority to majority
2019 Pallister calls and early one and wins a decent size majority with only minor losses, but after record landslide in 2016, that was expected.

But some have not worked out so well

1990 David Peterson calls one with a 25 point lead and loses to Bob Rae
2015 Jim Prentice calls and early one and also results in NDP pulling off an upset

So its gamble.  Probably will work out, but I think Horgan's odds of a majority would have been even higher had he waited another year.

1997 Chretien nearly loses majority after being unable to explain the need for an early election call.

2011, Harper calls an early election and gains a majority.

2011 wasn't Harper calling an early election, his government had lost a confidence motion.

I had forgotten that, but Harper engineered the loss because he thought he could win a majority.

[Benjamin Frank]

All this talk about the other Minority govts in Atlantic Canada following Higgs lead, when it was actually BC we should have been paying attention to. I have no doubts that if polling follows the trend seen in NB, Horgan will get his majority, even though BC has a polarized seat allocation similar to NB.

One thing to remember though is that about 2/3's of the NDP's current Polling lead can be attributed to the nonexistent BC Conservatives who ran ten candidates last time, and currently have none listed. It will be interesting to see if these voters come home like they always have in the past when it becomes a two-horse race (and deny the NDP a large majority), or whether they will find a home to cast protest votes against Wilkinson.

While I don't doubt that the B.C Conservatives were caught off guard by this election call, they actually have a credible leader in Fort St John City Councilor Trevor Bolin, and those who divided the party on its provincial executive to the party's detriment in both 2013 and 2017 are all gone.

I would expect the B.C Conservatives to get a fair amount of support in some ridings. 

[Benjamin Frank]

All this talk about the other Minority govts in Atlantic Canada following Higgs lead, when it was actually BC we should have been paying attention to. I have no doubts that if polling follows the trend seen in NB, Horgan will get his majority, even though BC has a polarized seat allocation similar to NB.

One thing to remember though is that about 2/3's of the NDP's current Polling lead can be attributed to the nonexistent BC Conservatives who ran ten candidates last time, and currently have none listed. It will be interesting to see if these voters come home like they always have in the past when it becomes a two-horse race (and deny the NDP a large majority), or whether they will find a home to cast protest votes against Wilkinson.

While I don't doubt that the B.C Conservatives were caught off guard by this election call, they actually have a credible leader in Fort St John City Councilor Trevor Bolin, and those who divided the party on its provincial executive to the party's detriment in both 2013 and 2017 are all gone.

I would expect the B.C Conservatives to get a fair amount of support in some ridings.  

Not to mention, even if the BC Conservatives do end up consolidating behind the BC Liberals (like they always do), it depends where those Conservative votes are. They're probably moreso in the Interior, where they don't really matter. What really matters is how many of them there are in those 5-7 suburban ridings that the NDP needs to win a majority.

Though none of this is to say that a low-turnout pandemic election still couldn't easily end up being a disaster for the NDP in a perfect-storm scenario against them.

Mostly in the Interior but the B.C Conservatives also have a fair amount of historical support (that continues) in Comox/Parksville-Qualicum on Vancouver Island and in parts of the Fraser Valley, essentially the exurban area of Metro Vancouver.

The Comox riding was the one that decided the last B.C election and the Langley City based riding (as opposed to the District of Langley) is trending NDP as it has become more of a suburb of Surrey than an Exurb of Vancouver.

Interestingly though, the B.C Conservatives historically have an identity and policies different from that of the Federal Conservatives.  The B.C Conservatives are more populist (but not necessarily right wing populist) than the Federal Conservatives, to whom they aren't connected with.)

In my city of Richmond, British Columbia, city councilor Carol Day ran for the B.C Conservatives in 2013.  She's also part of a non-coalition type thing on the city council with one Green and 2 New Democrats.

As a result of this, the vote results seem to show that the B.C Conservatives 'take' fairly evenly from the B.C Liberals and the NDP, though that differs by riding.

[Benjamin Frank]

Maybe people are mistaking my post. The BC Con vote in the polls is unstable, and it may just end up returning to the Libs. Even if it does though, the NDP will/should still be leading, just they would be on track for a small majority similar to Higgs's last week rather than a demolishing victory. Only about 2/3s of the party gap is because of the Cons. Something else would need to happen to change the trajectory of the election for the Libs to pull even.

I get that. I'm just pointing out that the B.C Conservatives seem to have historically 'taken' as many votes from the B.C Liberals as from the NDP.  Again, it's different in each riding where the Conservative Party has most of their historical support, but B.C Conservative voters historically haven't been a monolith where their second choice is the B.C Liberals.

[Benjamin Frank]

and on top of that BC Liberal leader is from central casting as exactly the kind of BC Liberal that people who vote Tory federally would hate (slick, condescending, downtown Vancouver "Laurentian elite" style professional with big L federal Liberal ties).

Wilkinson is basically the Ignatieff of BC.  

They weren't party leaders but he and Ignatieff remind me of former Harper Immigration Minister Chris Alexander and Bill Morneau as well.  All four of them are obviously highly intelligent people who seem to completely lack common sense.

Still Wilkinson did quite well in the campaign against proportional representation and I don't think the NDP should underestimate him.

[Benjamin Frank]

The federal Liberals did win Kelowna in 2015, so I don't see why the BC NDP can't win there now.

Kelowna has lots of well to do seniors so don't see it going BC NDP.  If you look at recent elections, BC Liberals won it by over 30 points, so NDP would need around a 30 point lead to win there.  Basically if NDP is winning Kelowna, they are looking at around 70 seats province wide, which I don't see happening.

I largely agree with you but places do evolve demographically. I hear that Kelowna is growing very quickly and more and more young people are moving there. I'm not expecting the NDP to ever sweep it - but at some point as it gets cut into several seats, maybe one of them is more "inner city" than the others...you know up until the 1970s Victoria was a total dead zone for the NDP!

Huh. Why was Victoria so conservative?

I am guessing back then, lots of traditional British immigrants as well as back then civil servants weren't reliably left wing like today never mind you now have larger university population and a strong environmentalist movement you lacked back then.

And also back then, there was a stronger "Red Tory" element (even within the provincial Socreds, at least by the Bill Bennett years), while the NDP was seen as more of a rough-hewn union/blue-collar force...

Charles Barber was the first New Democrat elected in the 1970s.  Victoria was a duel member riding back then and he won one of the two positions in 1975.  This was likely partly due to the NDP bringing in a bunch of civil servants.

of course, Charles Barber didn't work out too well.

[Benjamin Frank]

The federal Liberals did win Kelowna in 2015, so I don't see why the BC NDP can't win there now.

Kelowna has lots of well to do seniors so don't see it going BC NDP.  If you look at recent elections, BC Liberals won it by over 30 points, so NDP would need around a 30 point lead to win there.  Basically if NDP is winning Kelowna, they are looking at around 70 seats province wide, which I don't see happening.

I largely agree with you but places do evolve demographically. I hear that Kelowna is growing very quickly and more and more young people are moving there. I'm not expecting the NDP to ever sweep it - but at some point as it gets cut into several seats, maybe one of them is more "inner city" than the others...you know up until the 1970s Victoria was a total dead zone for the NDP!

If we are looking at the Kelowna-Okanagan area, based on 2017, the NDP targets should be:

->Boundary-Similkameen - 32% with no Conservative candidate, a low BCGreen vote. If the Cons runs here that will eat into BCL and the BCNDP already polling high.
->Vernon-Monashee - 29% no BCC, high BCGreen vote (21%). If the BCGreen tanks some, and would likely shift to the NDP could be a target.
https://338canada.com/bc/map.htm - predicts only Boundary-Similkameen as a BCNDP pick-up. As always take that as you will.

Everything else is plus 50% for the BCL, should be one of the only strong areas for BCLs.

One additional reflection on Kelowna which plays on that 2015 federal result: it might be historically barren for the NDP, but it's not necessarily barren for the "non-right", at least in the vestigial "Judi Tyabji populist" sense.  Or in UK terms, it's the kind of place which'd have a certain "Con-LD marginal" element (at least in terms of the Blair years)

Kelowna is a fairly big city of about 140,000 people and over 170,000 if the suburb West Kelowna is added in.    Urban areas tend to be more left leaning.

On the other hand, many of the religious people there tend to be conservative Protestant work ethic types.

So, while it's certainly come a long way from being a 'Backward Town' I think it's more likely Chilliwack would start voting for the NDP before Kelowna ever does.

[Benjamin Frank]

In fact Chilliwack went NDP in a byelection in 2011

Byelections don't count.

However, the CCF held Kelowna and area federally from 1948 to 1957.  Owen Lewis (O L) Jones was the M.P, and he, at least fit the profile, of the protestant work ethic types.  He had been the mayor of Kelowna and owned at least two furniture stores.  On paper, a total chamber of commerce type.

Kelowna has grown significantly in population over the last 40 years or so as has West Kelowna. When the band The Grapes of Wrath wrote the song 'Backward Town' about Kelowna in 1987, the population of Kelowna from the census in 1986 was 61,513.

[Benjamin Frank]

One point I remembered later on the seemingly anomalous win of the Federal Liberals in Kelowna in 2015: my understanding is that the Liberal candidate, Stephen Fuhr, was a relatively high profile long time former Conservative Party supporter, and many of the voters in 2015 shared his defacto view of "I didn't leave the Conservative Party, the Conservative Party left me."

[Benjamin Frank]

I’d like to see a list of the 14 ridings with no Green on the ballot and also a list of 19 ridings with Conservatives on the ballot

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_British_Columbia_general_election

[Benjamin Frank]

Looks like this could be a milestone for the NDP, which was always stuck around 40-45% whether it won or lost (which depended on the strength and unity of the "free enterprise coalition.")

Goes back a long way, but when Bill VanderZalm was Premier, the B.C NDP regularly polled in the low 50% range.

The high water mark for the NDP vote was around 46% in 1979. That was a largely two way race though and it's a bit complicated by a number of dual member ridings.

[Benjamin Frank]

Edited after seeing the video.


https://twitter.com/David_Moscrop/status/1315152385904443403
The person talking is North Vancouver MLA Jane Thornthwaite.

Bowinn Ma is the MLA for the riding of the city of North Vancouver (as opposed to the district of North Vancouver.)  I don't know anything one way or the other about her taking credit for things she wasn't part of (other than that's kind of normal in politics) but she is regarded as a very capable MLA.  She was first elected in 2017 at the age of 31 and is/was a professional engineer and project manager.  She seems to be something of a rising star.

"Ralph" is Ralph Sultan who is retiring after first being elected in 2001.  He was/is a highly credentialed engineer and economist and is the MLA for a neighboring riding in West Vancouver, which I guess is why it was his job to keep an eye on Bowinn Ma.  The major media outlets tend to think very highly of him due to his credentials and his 'outsider' status in the Liberal caucus.  He was briefly a junior minister for seniors in the Gordon Campbell government and was Minister of Advanced Education under Christy Clark until the 2013 election.  The media put him spending most of his political career on the back benches down to him being too independent to parrot talking points.

I don't even remember why I found this article, but the most current thing I've read about him was when Victoria Times columnist Les Leyne wrote a fawning article of Sultan criticizing the transportation minister for the NDP decision to overturn the Christy Clark government 10 lane bridge replacement for the Massey Tunnel.

The most interesting thing of that article was Sultan was quoted in the House as saying that the government had projected the cost of the new bridge at $3.5 billion, but it accepted a bid to build it at just over $2.5 billion.

I can not find a single source to back up this approximately $2.5 billion figure.

https://www.timescolonist.com/opinion/columnists/les-leyne-great-grandpa-mla-engineers-tunnel-questions-1.24168775

This is an example of the fawning nature of the article:  

"Cue Liberal MLA Ralph Sultan, (West Vancouver-Capilano). He’s the courtly grandfather (make that great-grandfather) of the house. But every so often he likes to rain hellfire down on the NDP, just to stay limber."

According to Les Leyne, this is what Sultan claimed in the House: The estimate was $3.5 billion but a bid came in almost $1 billion lower and work began.

The Liberals have brought out this bridge promise again, and the cost figure is again a projected $3.5 billion (though approximately 3.5 years later.)

Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson is in the bottom middle square.

[Benjamin Frank]

I'm listening to the radio, so I haven't seen this yet, but this is apparently very bad for Andrew Wilkinson (trending on Twitter.)

https://twitter.com/David_Moscrop/status/1315152385904443403

It's not good and does play into idea party is stuck in past.  Interestingly enough it is another woman making the sexist remark not man and while right thing would be for one to intervene, how many of us in real life when a friend or family member says something stupid intervene?  I don't think it will help party but they are losing already so might be bad if in lead, but party is down to core anyways so not likely to go much lower.

North Vancouver-Seymour (North Vancouver District) MLA Jane Thornthwaite is the woman speaking.

North Vancouver-Seymour has only voted NDP sort of once when in 1972 it voted for Colin Gabelmann.  I'm pretty sure the riding back then contained much of what is now the North Vancouver-Lonsdale riding.  (The city of North Vancouver.)

The city of North Vancouver is a fairly compact middle class suburb.  The riding of North Vancouver-Lonsdale had only previously voted for the NDP once before in 1991 when subsequent frequent political commentator Dave Schreck won the riding, but the NDP have been competitive in every election except for 2001.  (Dave Shreck had a website called "Strategic Thoughts,"  Lotuslander was a frequent responder on the site.)

North Vancouver-Seymour has been a strong anti-NDP riding, but in 2017 Jane Thornthwaite was reelected by a just over 10% margin over the NDP.



For those interested in a bit of history:  if the name Colin Gabelmann is familiar, it's because though he was defeated in 1975, he was employed by a union following the election and was relocated to Northern Vancouver Island, and in the 1979 election was reelected to the legislature for the riding of North Island. (From North Vancouver to North Island.)

From 1972-1975 Gabelmann was a young left wing hardliner, one of the three NDP MLAs to vote against the 'back to work' legislation that the Barrett NDP government passed to end a wide scale public sector strike right before Dave Barrett called the 1975 election.  (The NDP ran on this in the 1975 election with billboards or something of a picture of Dave Barrett and the words of something like 'He did his job so that you could do your job. Reelect the NDP.')

By 1991, Gabelmann political views had shifted considerably more to the center. Probably most famously, before the 1991 election, then NDP leader Mike Harcourt had Colin Gabelmann by his side when, I believe at a speech before the Vancouver Board of Trade, Harcourt referred to himself as a 'capitalist.'

Shortly after this, I believe Ronald Reagan visited Vancouver and was picked up at the airport by wealthy industrialist Jimmy Pattison.  A headline in the U.S on this said "Capitalist picks up Ronald Reagan at airport."

I remember a sketch of Bob Robertson and Linda Cullen (they called themselves 'Double Exposure' on their CBC program) reading the headline and saying "Why would Mike Harcourt do that?"

Anyway, Colin Gabelmann probably would have made a fine finance minister in the Harcourt government (couldn't have been much worse than Glen Clark) but Harcourt appointed him as the Attorney General even though Gabelmann wasn't a lawyer.  Gabelmann was actually regarded as the best minister in the government for a couple years, but then 3 or 4 issues hit his ministry at the same time and he ended up foolishly attacking some anti abortionist likely due to exhaustion and being in over his head due to not being a lawyer and was dropped in the subsequent cabinet shuffle.  He then did not run for reelection in 1996.



For even more history:  There were three lawyers in the NDP caucus from 1986-1991.  Larry Guno (pronounced Gu-new), Moe Sihota and Mike Harcourt.    Guno represented the small population riding of Atlin which was absorbed into the riding of North Coast for the 1991 election and, so Guno, retired.  Mike Harcourt was the Premier and Moe Sihota, although a colorful and capable person, had a series of minor scandals during his tenure from 1986-1991 and was regarded as too political to be the Attorney General.

There were a number of lawyers elected to the NDP caucus in the 1991 'intake' but I gather Harcourt decided to appoint a veteran MLA to the position.  Andrew Petter, who was a law professor, was appointed as the minister for aboriginal affairs in 1991.  In the 1995 cabinet shuffle, lawyer Ujjal Dosanjh was appointed Attorney General.

[Benjamin Frank]

IMHO BC is starting to lock in a pattern that is very NDP = Democrats and BC Liberals = Republicans. In any American state these days you see once Republican suburbs and exurbs turning solidly Democratic. I'm sure there are wealthier suburbs of Seattle and Portland that were once as GOP as North Vancouver and Richmond and Langley etc... were once BC Liberal - but now those areas are totally Democrat. Similarly in Ontario we now have a situation where anytime the more progressive alternative to the Tories (i.e. the Ontario Liberals and/or NDP) wins - they literally win just about every single seat in the GTA. On the other hand - the BC NDP does worse now than they used to do in the interior (e.g in 2005 the NDP won both Cariboo seats) - but the province as a whole is getting more urban and less rural so that is a trend they can live with.

Once upon a time the NDP in BC was seen as a bit of a strident "class based" party that was anathema to well-heeled professional types - but i think those days are over and if you live in a place like West Vancouver and you voted for the federal Liberals under Trudeau last year - its not much of a leap to vote for the BC NDP under Horgan. Its notable that in last year's Alberta election the NDP won all but one seat in Edmonton, including some seats that are quite wealthy and that used to be PC strongholds and when the NDP did well in Manitoba and Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia it would typically run the tables in greater Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg and Halifax...so it seems to me that a big challenge for rightwing parties is figuring out how to win urban areas again  

I think this is the trend, yes, but it's still a bit overstated.  North Vancouver is trending NDP but West Vancouver isn't (if anything West Vancouver may be trending Green provincially.)  And, the strongest riding for the Federal Liberals and the one that fits the bill for the Democratic Party is Andrew Wilkinson's riding of Vancouver-Quilchena, which may be the only provincial Liberal riding left in Vancouver.

Vancouver-Langara is a bit of an interesting riding as well.  It's the most Conservative of all the Vancouver ridings in that South Vancouver used to be a separate city until something like 1936 (I forget if the city was called South Vancouver, Langara or Marpole) and it still has something of a suburban feel with strip malls, single detached housing and the like.  However, like the suburbs, it's also trended left and the provincial NDP made a decent showing there in 2017.

Also, while the situation is a bit different since nearly all the candidates were appointed and not nominated (the NDP had 7 contested nominations and the winners were all announced in a single press release), of the 53 non incumbent New Democratic candidates, 18 have a business background while only 10 or 11 have a union background.  

For what it's worth, just over half of the candidates are or were elected municipally while a fair number of the others are either civil servants or work for the party.  I assume the reason for this is that, given the sudden election call, there was no time for a serious 'vetting' of the candidates, and I presume all of these people had been vetted previously.  While nobody is vetted when they run for municipal office, I presume they are vetted before they get onto the local police board, or hospital board or what-have-you.

[Benjamin Frank]

IMHO BC is starting to lock in a pattern that is very NDP = Democrats and BC Liberals = Republicans. In any American state these days you see once Republican suburbs and exurbs turning solidly Democratic. I'm sure there are wealthier suburbs of Seattle and Portland that were once as GOP as North Vancouver and Richmond and Langley etc... were once BC Liberal - but now those areas are totally Democrat. Similarly in Ontario we now have a situation where anytime the more progressive alternative to the Tories (i.e. the Ontario Liberals and/or NDP) wins - they literally win just about every single seat in the GTA. On the other hand - the BC NDP does worse now than they used to do in the interior (e.g in 2005 the NDP won both Cariboo seats) - but the province as a whole is getting more urban and less rural so that is a trend they can live with.

I think this is an apt assessment.  BC is becoming less Australia, more Washington State or California in its voting patterns.

One thing that has prevented this from happening up until now, and could continue to be a problem, is that anybody who wants to join the provincial NDP also has to be a member of any other New Democratic Party organization.  Generally that means federally, but sometimes municipally as well.  When 'Moderate Mike' Harcourt became leader (by acclimation) this likely prevented a good number of supporters from joining the party.

That is still an issue, but one thing that has changed is the banning of corporate and union donations.  The public sector unions especially don't seem to have anywhere near the influence on the Horgan government, that they've had on previous NDP governments.

[Benjamin Frank]

That might be an issue for the 1% of people who would ever even consider becoming a card carry member of a political party in BC. The other 99% vote one way or another and don’t give a hoot about whether being a card carrying member of a provincial party means anything in federal politics. When Gary Doer won several consecutive landslides in Manitoba it didn’t seem to matter that the Manitoba NDP is connected to the federal NDP.

PS: there is no such a thing as a municipal NDP anywhere in Canada that is an organization that is organically linked to the federal or provincial nDP

1.The issue is one of the policies passed by the party.  Certainly the Horgan government seems to have largely ignored them, but the NDP provincial council was a major headache for Harcourt.

Officially, an NDP government is supposed to implement policies that were passed by the members.

2.There certainly are:  
The civic party that dominates Burnaby is the Burnaby Citizens' Association.
"Corrigan was the standard-bearer for the Burnaby Citizens Association, which is affiliated with the NDP. He's also chair of the TransLink Mayors' Council."

https://www.straight.com/news/1153806/former-firefighter-mike-hurley-leading-derek-corrigan-burnaby-mayoral-race

In Richmond, where they have two city councillors
RCA (Richmond Citizen's Association) is the civic expression of the New Democratic Party in #RichmondBC. We are committed to bringing about positive change in our community.

https://www.facebook.com/RichmondCitizensAssn/photos/rca-is-the-civic-expression-of-the-new-democratic-party-in-richmondbc-we-are-com/1517285274976721/

I believe there are others as well.  Where there is a municipal NDP organization that runs candidates, no member of the NDP can run for any other municipal party.

[Benjamin Frank]

Sure there are informal alliances between the NDP and various municipal parties and groupings but again it’s informal. I’m pretty sure that if I live in Burnaby and I join the NDP I don’t automatically become a member of the BCA and I’m also 100% certain that if I pay the BC NDP $20 a year to be a member not one penny of that goes to the BCA. The BC Liberals are also linked to the NPA in Vancouver but that is the least of their problems! And every party has issues with party members being more radical than the politicians especially when in government and there are always tensions between the federal and provincial party. You know if I lived in Alberta and joined the NDP to support Rachel Notley, I’m also automatically a member of the federal NDP which opposes pipelines! But people just have to agree to disagree with others in their party sometimes!

PS: the current mayor of Burnaby ran against the supposedly “NDP affiliated BCA” mayor and won. But the current mayor is also an NDP supporter! And the mayor of Vancouver Kennedy Stewart was an NDP MP but ran as a non-partisan independent and won

No, you're just wrong.  If you join the NDP provincially, you automatically become a member of both the federal NDP and any municipal NDP organization including the BCA or the RCA.

There are a number of historical New Democrats who were given a special exception, like health minister Laurent Desjardins in Manitoba who was a federal Liberal, but otherwise, if you are a member of one, you are a member of all.

Since the mayor of Burnaby ran against the NDP affiliated mayor, he must have been a supporter of the NDP but not a member.

In regards to Alberta, yes, this is why provincial New Democrats have discussed breaking away from the federal party.  That would be something of a mess because the Federal NDP would be obligated, based on its constitution which describes the NDP as a 'movement' and not just a political party, to start up a new Alberta provincial wing.

https://ipolitics.ca/2016/04/11/no-alberta-split-from-the-federal-ndp-notley/

Only in Quebec, I believe, is the Provincial NDP, such as it is, not affiliated with the Federal NDP.

I don't know how the donations work specifically.  When members join the party or donate, they can direct which organization the money goes to, but for those who don't state any preference, I don't know how it's divided.

[Benjamin Frank]

I did some research. It costs $40 to be a member of the Burnaby Citizens Association (double what it costs to be a member of the BC NDP). If you want to be a member you have to check off a box that says you are a member of the NDP...so clearly you have to be an NDP member to join the BCA - but you do have to join - it is not automatic. In other words all BCA members are also NDP members but not all NDP members in Burnaby are BCA members - you have to join and pay a membership fee  

Wow! I am legitimately shocked that the NDP is that formally tied to a municipal party, a successful one at that. I suppose it helps that the BCA doesn't have "NDP" in the name. This is true for the RCA as well? Are there any other parties like that?

The Richmond Citizens Association used to be called the Richmond Civic New Democrats.  I believe in the 1980s when David Levi (the son of NDP Dave Barrett era cabinet minister Norm Levi) tried to start a municipally affiliated NDP civic party in Vancouver they may have been called the Civic New Democratic Party, but I don't remember for certain.

I knew what I posted on the affiliation of the civic New Democrats in at least Richmond and Burnaby was true for two reasons:

1.I know about a former New Democratic provincial candidate in Richmond who wanted to run for the school board with some other civic party and was told by the local NDP "you can't run for them, we're looking at running candidates for school board.  If you want to run, you'll have to run with us."

2.The way the Richmond New Democrats manage this membership requirement for candidates who want to align municipally but don't want to be members of the NDP (I think align especially with long time city councilor Harold Steves) is they have a non-coalition coalition with a party called the Richmond Independent Team of Electors (RITE.)  In the 2018 election the RCA ran four candidates for city council as did RITE.  Two RCA members were elected: Harold Steves, and Kelly Greene who is running for the NDP again provincially, and two RITE members were elected: Carol Day who ran for the B.C Conservatives provincially in 2013, and Michael Wolfe who ran for the Green Party several times.

In Burnaby this isn't a problem, since the BCA dominates municipally as they have done since 1987.

[Benjamin Frank]

If the election is a huge blow-out like these polls suggest, then who are the natural options for the Liberals to be their next leader? Because if results end up looking like this, then I have to imagine those who would otherwise be potential contenders would be out of a job.

The likeliest contender I'd have to think is Jas Johal who has made a handful of stupid or odd comments (but, who hasn't?) but has emerged as the party's spokesperson on most issues.  In many ways, during the legislative sessions, he had a higher profile than Andrew Wilkinson.  Johal was a longtime investigative journalist first for radio station CKNW and then for BCTV News (which gets insanely high viewership)  Before getting elected to the legislature, he was in public relations for, I believe, the natural gas industry association.

However, Johal represents Richmond-Queensborough and is likely to lose his seat if these polls are accurate.  

Michael Lee, who like Johal was first elected in 2017, ran for the B.C Liberal leadership and nearly won, but has been regarded as something of a disappointment as Attorney General critic.  He represents Vancouver-Langara and is also likely to lose.

Ellis Ross, the high profile Indigenous B.C Liberal and big supporter of resource development represents Skeena also since 2017 which has been a mostly NDP held riding.  Again, he would also likely lose his riding.  Ross, in my opinion, would have significant problems were he to run for leader.  He is both something of a global warming denier and he has obvious authoritarian views.

Shirley Bond, an MLA for the Prince George area since 2001 was a generally well regarded senior cabinet minister under Gordon Campbell and Christy Clark and could finally run for the leadership, but I think she'd be more likely to be the interim leader.

In my opinion this would leave:
1.Todd Stone, an MLA for Kamloops and former cabinet minister.  He was behind the 'triple delete scandal' but ran pretty well for the leadership.

2.Mike de Jong.  A longtime MLA for Abbotsford (since 1994) and former cabinet minister.  He's run the last two times for leader doing much better the second time around.  He was a generally capable minister and has a likeable sense of humor, but he's also associated with many scandals and controversies.

3.Mike Bernier.  An MLA for the Peace River.  He was a generally highly regarded Education Minister under Christy Clark.  Apparently he is a member or supporter of the federal Conservative Party, but he seems to be well regarded by all factions.  He ran briefly for the leadership last time around, but dropped out and endorsed Mike de Jong.

4.John Rustad.  An MLA in the Prince George area.  He was the Indigenous Relations minister under Christy Clark and kept a low profile, but seemed to be generally respected.  However, after he was reelected in 2017 he was named Forests minister in that very brief Christy Clark government and gained a great deal of respect for the way he handled the large forest fire situation in 2017.  I don't know how much that is remembered though.

5.Norm Letnick.  An MLA for Kelowna.  He was the Agriculture minister under Christy Clark.  He got into a battle with minister Bill Bennet (the bullying former cabinet minister from the Kootenays, not the bullying former premier from Kelowna) over the Agriculture Land Reserve and Agricultural Land Commission.  Bennet wanted to reduce the scope of the ALR while Letnick wanted to maintain it.  Letnick as health critic has also praised NDP Health Minister Adrian Dix.  I don't know the impact these actions would have on any leadership ambitions he might have.

6.Peter Milobar. An MLA for Kamloops.  He was first elected in 2017 but was the longest serving mayor of Kamloops (2008-2017) before that.


Outside of the caucus and given this somewhat motley and low-profile collection, I suspect there would once again be a great deal of pressure on former Harper Industry Minister and 'Red Tory' James Moore to run.  

Edited: Removed Laurie Throness and Teresa Watt.   Just saw that Teresa Watt is 71 years old.

[Benjamin Frank]

What do you think will be the future of the Greens as they will probably go back to Pre-2017 margins after the election?

I don't know.  The NDP are targeting all 3 Green ridings.  I think a good deal for the Greens could depend on tonight's debate as it's the best opportunity for Sonja Furstenau to raise her profile.

The NDP is targeting the riding of former Green leader Andrew Wilkinson (Oak Bay-Gordon Head) with high profile highly respected former NDP M.P Murray Rankin.  The Greens are running Nicole Duncan, a Greater Victoria school trustee first elected in 2018.

The NDP are also targeting both of the other ridings with 2 area city councilors, Zeb King in the Saanich North and the Islands riding and Rob Douglas in Furstenau's Cowichan Valley riding.

Both of these ridings were held by the NDP up to 2017 but the Saanich North riding is hardly a traditional NDP riding.  It was said that it used to be where a lot of right wingers from Alberta retired to, but they've now apparently relocated further up north Vancouver Island to the Parksville-Qualicum riding.  So, Saanich North and the Islands is now apparently the retirement area for a lot of wealthier environmentalists.  In the 2013 election that riding was a very close 3 way race, while in 2017, the Green Party won it by over 10%. I'd expect Adam Olsen who ran both in 2013 and 2017 for the Greens to be reelected.

The Cowichan Valley riding of Furstenau's is much more historic NDP territory, but she is apparently well regarded as a constituency MLA, even though she's now the party leader, and I'd expect her to also be reelected.  She first got active in Green Party politics as a local environmental activist, so she had a fairly high profile in at least part of the riding before she first got elected there.


I forget specifically on what environmental issue Furstenau first emerged in her riding, I think it's a toxic waste dump or something.  She will likely be further helped because the NDP did not change the Liberal government's previous policy on this. The NDP say that the government scientists took a look and recommended maintaining the existing policy and that the government has no authority to overrule the civil service on this (i.e think of the SNC Lavalin situation) but, I don't know that the riding's constituents care about those sort of legalities.

[Benjamin Frank]

 He has a big enough lead that all he to avoid was doing anything stupid which he did.

Apparently he did, by saying he doesn't see colour? I mean, that's not going to lose votes to the Liberals, but could lose votes to the Greens. Though, I don't think that many people care about that kind of SJW stuff anyways. I mean, the black face thing didn't hurt Trudeau that much, and that was say worse.

And promptly after the debate apologized or tried to clarify it:

“Saying ‘I don’t see colour’ causes pain and makes people feel unseen,” he wrote. “I’m sorry. I’ll never fully understand, as a white person, the lived reality of systemic racism. I’m listening, learning, and I’ll keep working every day to do better.”

Agreed, I think he made this statement right there to reach out to any left SJW in the NDP's hardcore support base... just to make sure they stick put with the NDP.

I thought the moderator was generally good, but I thought that was a stupid question to begin with: "Since subconscious bias is something you're not aware of in yourself, could you please tell me how this subconscious bias, which you're not aware of, has effected your decisions?"

[Benjamin Frank]

Liberal MLA Laurie Throness voluntarily stepped down as a liberal candidate after equating free birth control with eugenics at a local candidate debate. His name will remain on the ballot though.

[Benjamin Frank]

60% in Metro Vancouver.  The NDP may sweep the region except for the "islands of the 1%", West Vancouver and Van-Quilchena.

Likely not Delta South or Richmond North Centre.

Delta South is more like an exurb in that it has a large active religious population.

[Benjamin Frank]

Has the Globe and Mail ever endorsed the NDP before?


https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/article-in-bcs-pandemic-election-the-liberals-and-ndp-have-reversed-roles/

1991