BC Election on October 24th

[mileslunn]

Right now NDP has a big lead in polls and would easily get an majority, but calling an early opportunistic election during the middle of a pandemic with rising cases, could backfire.  The one thing NDP has going for them is the BC Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson is an incredibly weak leader so that might be their best saving grace.  If BC Liberals had a stronger leader, I somehow suspect they would have second thoughts about this.

Of early opportunistic ones in Canada, record is kind of mixed:

2000 Chretien calls and early one and pays off with stronger majority
2008 Harper calls an early one and gets a stronger minority
2020 Higgs in New Brunswick calls one and goes from minority to majority
2019 Pallister calls and early one and wins a decent size majority with only minor losses, but after record landslide in 2016, that was expected.

But some have not worked out so well

1990 David Peterson calls one with a 25 point lead and loses to Bob Rae
2015 Jim Prentice calls and early one and also results in NDP pulling off an upset

So its gamble.  Probably will work out, but I think Horgan's odds of a majority would have been even higher had he waited another year.

[mileslunn]

Maybe people are mistaking my post. The BC Con vote in the polls is unstable, and it may just end up returning to the Libs. Even if it does though, the NDP will/should still be leading, just they would be on track for a small majority similar to Higgs's last week rather than a demolishing victory. Only about 2/3s of the party gap is because of the Cons. Something else would need to happen to change the trajectory of the election for the Libs to pull even.

I get that. I'm just pointing out that the B.C Conservatives seem to have historically 'taken' as many votes from the B.C Liberals as from the NDP.  Again, it's different in each riding where the Conservative Party has most of their historical support, but B.C Conservative voters historically haven't been a monolith where their second choice is the B.C Liberals.

You cannot add two together agreed, but BC Conservatives take more from BC Liberals but not 100%.  Also some of their voters would just not vote at all if BC Conservatives not on ballot.  Its probably something like 60% from BC Liberals, 20%, NDP, 10% Green, and 10% would not vote.

[mileslunn]

If somehow, the BC Conservatives get around 15%, would they get a seat?

Depends on distribution.  If heavily concentrated yes, if spread out reasonably evenly no.

[mileslunn]

Horgan is taking a gamble here but I disagree that he would have been better waiting a year. A year from now the “rally around the flag” sentiment will be gone, there will likely be a bad economy, a towering deficit and possibly more Indigenous blockade etc... I think the government could get very un popular over the coming year

Depends on when vaccine is developed.  I think for both BC NDP and federal Liberals, best time to go is immediately after vaccine developed so don't have to make any of the tough decisions, but also not the backlash of holding during pandemic.  Assuming a vaccine developed early next year, which is a big if, then I actually think spring would be best time.  More importantly if COVID-19 cases follow similar trajectory next year, you will see big drop off in May thus that or June being good months.  Off course who knows what trajectory they will follow, especially considering I suspect government will try to avoid another lockdown at all costs.

[mileslunn]

I am normally a BC Liberal supporter, but I think PST cut an incredibly stupid idea.  In theory only debt will go up as in 2023 PST will return to 7% thus depending on recovery may be able to balance budget then.  But just adds extra debt.  While its true some places like Germany have cut VATs, they are only cuts and must shorter duration. 

A better solution is make hotel purchases and restaurant purchases including tips tax deductible up to $1,000 for one year after vaccine introduced.  This would encourage more spending in sectors that were really hard hit rather than just a general cut which people may spend on more stuff at Amazon or other online retailers who don't need help.

In terms of impacts, it suggests to me internal polls are not great for BC Liberals.  If they were tied or close to, would probably be being more cautious wanting to hold and gain a few points, not throw out some big idea and hope it sticks.  It may be a hail mary, but I actually think this is likely to help NDP as they can just retort to Wilkinson, what programs will you cut and right now with people struggling programs probably more important.  If economy was doing well, I think tax cuts would be popular although I think an income tax cut would probably sell better than a sales tax cut.

[mileslunn]

I would add that right now the BC provincial electoral map is a bit "rigged" to over-represent rural areas. For example the two Peace River seats which are two of the safest BC Liberal seats have less than a third of the population of the average suburban Vancouver riding. i suspect that if the NDP gets a majority they will revise the redistribution act to be more "rep by pop" and the effect of this may be to eliminate a few rural BC Liberal seats...

Either that, or create some friendlier urban seats out of existing "rurbans" in places like Prince George or Kamloops.

Kamloops while has NDP pockets, is still pretty BC Liberal overall as is Prince George.  The downtown core and the university are only areas NDP tends to do well in both.  A lot of the blue collar workers who used to vote NDP are now BC Liberal and Conservative federally.  NDP does a bit better in the city proper than rural areas but not a massive difference.  Main hope for NDP is both universities grow a lot larger and become dominant employer and thus becomes a college town sort of like Guelph or Kingston which vote left or in UK like Cambridge and Oxford which vote heavily Labour unlike rest of their shires or in US where you see lots of college towns like Moscow, Idaho; Pullman, Washington; Lawrence, Kansas; Ithaca, New York; Ann Arbor, Michigan; Bloomington, Indiana vote heavily Democrat despite surrounding areas going heavily GOP. 

So if NDP wins again, perhaps a smart policy would be try to expand UNBC and Thompson Rivers University so they have a greater impact than they do now. 

[mileslunn]

The federal Liberals did win Kelowna in 2015, so I don't see why the BC NDP can't win there now.

Kelowna has lots of well to do seniors so don't see it going BC NDP.  If you look at recent elections, BC Liberals won it by over 30 points, so NDP would need around a 30 point lead to win there.  Basically if NDP is winning Kelowna, they are looking at around 70 seats province wide, which I don't see happening.

[mileslunn]

The Liberals' zero sales tax pledge could be their version of Tim Hudak's "eliminate 100,000 jobs" pledge - a poorly executed, poorly thought out "big idea" that derails their campaign.

Sounds good on paper, as who doesn't like paying less taxes.  Problem is it blows an $8 billion hole in budget so for those on left, question is what will he cut.  Martyn Brown who was Gordon Campbell's former chief of staff pointed out even Campbell's big tax cuts in 2001 were only 1/3 the size of this and those were still controversial but at least you had some economists who agreed with them.  Also Campbell unlike Wilkinson had an excuse as that was the year Alberta brought in their flat tax so tax cuts mainly done to help stench more wealthy moving to Alberta, whereas now with Alberta in the tank economically that is not a risk and nor would it be applicable to sales tax anyway.

For those on the right, this might push some away as NDP is actually more fiscally conservative here as a BC Liberal government would result in larger debt than an NDP one sort of going against conventional wisdom and tradition.

I think if BC Liberals maybe eliminated PST only in a few key sectors hurting like restaurants and tourism, that might have been a winning formula as not as big a cost and targeted at sectors who need help most.

[mileslunn]

The Liberals' zero sales tax pledge could be their version of Tim Hudak's "eliminate 100,000 jobs" pledge - a poorly executed, poorly thought out "big idea" that derails their campaign.

Sounds good on paper, as who doesn't like paying less taxes.  Problem is it blows an $8 billion hole in budget so for those on left, question is what will he cut.  Martyn Brown who was Gordon Campbell's former chief of staff pointed out even Campbell's big tax cuts in 2001 were only 1/3 the size of this and those were still controversial but at least you had some economists who agreed with them.  Also Campbell unlike Wilkinson had an excuse as that was the year Alberta brought in their flat tax so tax cuts mainly done to help stench more wealthy moving to Alberta, whereas now with Alberta in the tank economically that is not a risk and nor would it be applicable to sales tax anyway.

For those on the right, this might push some away as NDP is actually more fiscally conservative here as a BC Liberal government would result in larger debt than an NDP one sort of going against conventional wisdom and tradition.

I think if BC Liberals maybe eliminated PST only in a few key sectors hurting like restaurants and tourism, that might have been a winning formula as not as big a cost and targeted at sectors who need help most.

Nothing new there. The right do unfunded tax cuts and the left is forced to cut things/raise taxes to save the budget.

Most tax cuts not of this size or blow as big a hole.

Harper's GST cut blew a huge hole but that was pre Great Recession so large surpluses then.  Nonetheless Harper could have balanced budget by 2013 had GST been left at 7% which would meant more money to spend on things to help in 2015. 

Ralph Klein's tax cuts were when oil was at over $80 a barrel so worked fine at time, problem was when oil prices fell, it blew a big hole.

Gordon Campbell and Mike Harris both had large income tax cuts but not on this scale.  Harris cut income taxes by 30% and Campbell by 25%.  In both provinces sales tax bring in almost as much revenue as income tax although a bit less so this would be more akin to both cutting income taxes by 75%.  Heck Wilkinson if wanted to blow same amount could have just said for next two years, all income under 100K is tax free and that would have cost roughly same amount, but probably delivered better results.

[mileslunn]

The federal Liberals did win Kelowna in 2015, so I don't see why the BC NDP can't win there now.

Kelowna has lots of well to do seniors so don't see it going BC NDP.  If you look at recent elections, BC Liberals won it by over 30 points, so NDP would need around a 30 point lead to win there.  Basically if NDP is winning Kelowna, they are looking at around 70 seats province wide, which I don't see happening.

I largely agree with you but places do evolve demographically. I hear that Kelowna is growing very quickly and more and more young people are moving there. I'm not expecting the NDP to ever sweep it - but at some point as it gets cut into several seats, maybe one of them is more "inner city" than the others...you know up until the 1970s Victoria was a total dead zone for the NDP!

Huh. Why was Victoria so conservative?

I am guessing back then, lots of traditional British immigrants as well as back then civil servants weren't reliably left wing like today never mind you now have larger university population and a strong environmentalist movement you lacked back then.

[mileslunn]

and we have another poll showing a massive NDP lead. This time by Leger:

BC NDP - 47%
BC Libs - 31%
Greens - 12%
BC Cons - 9%

Of course since the Greens and especially the BC Cons will run less than a full slate - their support is likely going to be a lot lower.

https://vancouversun.com/news/b-c-ndp-leads-liberals-by-significant-margin-early-election-poll-finds

If that is the case probably two party.  NDP may after all get over 50% then if Greens lack full slate, while BC Liberals maybe 40% although even that far from guaranteed if no BC Conservatives.  Definitely appears backlash has faded and NDP in good shape.  Things will probably tighten as usual, but while nothing is certain, unless Horgan has a massive screw up, I think he will get his majority.

Tough part though will be next four years, but at least with majority has more flexibility.  For BC Liberals, their goal should be to focus on holding their open seats as well as ridings with rookies in 2017.  Reason I say that as party has much better shot in 2024 if they chose a leader who wasn't part of past administration than one who was.

[mileslunn]

Three ridings with just 2 candidates on the ballot (all Lib vs NDP, obviously); Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows (NDP held marginal), Richmond South Centre (historically safe Liberal), and Surrey-Green Timbers (safe NDP).

I suppose without the Greens on the ballot, the NDP could pick up Richmond SC? The idea of the NDP winning any seats in Richmond seems alien to me, but I know they're likely to pick up Richmond-Queensborough this time.

I think there is generational divide within the Chinese community.  Most that came over in the 80s and 90s before Hong Kong handover always go BC Liberal as they have a strong anti-socialist bent and even though NDP are nothing like communist party, sort of like Vietnamese and Cuban-Americans voting heavily GOP although former much less so.  NDP gaining in Richmond amongst millennial Chinese who weren't around when parents came over and instead likely vote the same way millennials across province do.  So its more thanks to generational change, not NDP picking up previous BC Liberals voters, but rather NDP winning most new voters who become of age but weren't earlier.

[mileslunn]

Three ridings with just 2 candidates on the ballot (all Lib vs NDP, obviously); Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows (NDP held marginal), Richmond South Centre (historically safe Liberal), and Surrey-Green Timbers (safe NDP).

I suppose without the Greens on the ballot, the NDP could pick up Richmond SC? The idea of the NDP winning any seats in Richmond seems alien to me, but I know they're likely to pick up Richmond-Queensborough this time.

I think there is generational divide within the Chinese community.  Most that came over in the 80s and 90s before Hong Kong handover always go BC Liberal as they have a strong anti-socialist bent and even though NDP are nothing like communist party, sort of like Vietnamese and Cuban-Americans voting heavily GOP although former much less so.  NDP gaining in Richmond amongst millennial Chinese who weren't around when parents came over and instead likely vote the same way millennials across province do.  So its more thanks to generational change, not NDP picking up previous BC Liberals voters, but rather NDP winning most new voters who become of age but weren't earlier.

I’ve heard that the BC NDP tends to well with the Taiwanese Chinese community. The other thing to remember is that while Cubans in the US tend to be political refugees, that is rarely the case with recent immigrants to Canada from China. They generally did nit leave China due to an aversion to communism (and there is little tnat is communist about China anyways). They just wanted a better Life and many of them are actually quite defensive of the Chinese government and are not motivated by anti-comminism.

I think its more those coming from Hong Kong not mainland China that lean right.  Hong Kong is quite capitalistic and strong anti-communist sentiment.

For Vietnamese in US, I think they now vote Democrat, but voted for Bush in 00 and 04.  A lot in Orange County which until recently was solidly Republican but now Democrat.  In US a lot of Cubans were also wealthy property owners who had property expropriated thus big reason they favour GOP.

For Chinese community could also be many are small business owners and past NDP, last so present didn't have too great a relation with small business community.

[mileslunn]

And yet another poll shows a crushing lead for the BC NDP. This time it’s Angus Reid and it’s post the BC Liberal promise to eliminate the PST.

NDP - 49%
Libs - 31%
Greens - 14%
Other - 5%

How do you spell LANDSLIDE?

http://angusreid.org/bc-election-top-issues/

I think PST cut did more harm than good.  While election 18 days away, I don't see how BC Liberals can win.  Their real goal should be to try and keep their seat count above 30 seats which is still very doable and in particular focus on MLAs who weren't part of last government as that will improve their odds in 2024 which is really what the goal, is be a viable party to win in 2024.

[mileslunn]

Just got an Angus-Reid survey so they are in the field, but not sure if public or for private clients.

Anyways, BC Liberals won't say it but unless Wilkinson delivers a knockout, I don't see how they can win this.  Their goal should be to try and hold as many seats possible so they have more choices for replacement of Wilkinson and thus improve their chances for 2024.

[mileslunn]

What’s the story behind Wilkinson ever having won the BC Liberal leadership in the first place? What could possibly possess ANYONE to vote for such a totally repulsive politician who is so devoid of any appeal to voters. What the hell were BC Liberal members thinking? It’s not like they didn’t have plenty of alternatives in that contest.

He spent a lot in the right areas.  If straight up popular vote not weighted by ridings, either Michael Lee or Diane Watts would have won as both did better in Lower Mainland.  A lot of MLAs wanted him or DeJong as still stuck in past and didn't recognize when you lose, party needs to change.  Also his chief campaigner Katy Merrifield now works for Jason Kenney. 

In a lot of ways though Ontario Liberals made same mistake in choosing Steve Del Duca.  It seems often when parties lose first election, they are in denial and just double down.  Its usually after a few losses they realize they have to change to come back.

[mileslunn]

I'm listening to the radio, so I haven't seen this yet, but this is apparently very bad for Andrew Wilkinson (trending on Twitter.)

https://twitter.com/David_Moscrop/status/1315152385904443403

It's not good and does play into idea party is stuck in past.  Interestingly enough it is another woman making the sexist remark not man and while right thing would be for one to intervene, how many of us in real life when a friend or family member says something stupid intervene?  I don't think it will help party but they are losing already so might be bad if in lead, but party is down to core anyways so not likely to go much lower.

[mileslunn]

I think with or without this video Jane Thornwaite could lose her seat.  NDP are far enough ahead that normally safe BC Liberal ridings will come into play.  Agree it will probably flip back to BC Liberals in 2024 regardless of outcome, but I suspect this election you will see a few previously safe BC Liberal ridings go NDP.

My riding Vancouver-False Creek a decade ago was a very safe BC Liberal one.  BC Liberals beat NDP by 2 to 1 margin in 2009, but barely hung on in 2017 and pretty sure it will flip NDP. 

[mileslunn]

That is true, you are seeing some urban/rural sorting.  Vancouver-False Creek is sort of like Cities of London & Westminster in UK where Tories even in 1997 disaster won over 50%, but in 2019 only got 39% and if Labour and Liberal Democrats had an agreement to only run one candidate would have beat Tories.

Still suburbs as you see in Ontario, Quebec, and Manitoba do vote for parties on right, but they are more bellwethers thus less BC Liberal locks like in past.  Otherwise BC Liberals will win them back when they return to office, but they cannot count on always winning them like they used to.  905 belt and South & West Winnipeg went largely PC in last provincial election, but when NDP and Liberals won in respective provinces they won those areas thus bellwethers not safe Tory seats like they once were.

West Vancouver I think stays BC Liberal as North Vancouver is upper middle class but not as wealthy as West Vancouver.  A lot in West Vancouver fall in the top bracket which Horgan like Trudeau raised whereas in North Vancouver most are not in that bracket.  In 90s it was different as top bracket then kicked in at 60K not 220K so impacted a lot more.  I think most in top 1% still voting BC Liberal, but most in top 10%, but not top 1% in Lower Mainland have swung over to NDP.  West Vancouver-Sea to Sky might flip as Bowen Island, Squamish, Whistler, and Pemberton more open to progressive politics, but West Vancouver-Capilano I expect to stay BC Liberal.  Federally the Tories actually narrowly won West Vancouver, but lost riding due to weakness in other parts as the parts outside of West Vancouver, they got absolutely crushed.  Longer term what could change that riding is if they build the high speed rail from Chilliwack to Whistler.  While many years away, I could see many who cannot afford city living in Squamish, Whistler and even new communities sprouting up along route. 

In places like Richmond, I think its more generational.  The first generation Chinese immigrants are still likely solidly BC Liberal, but many of their children are now grown up and they likely vote the same ways as other millennials, NDP.

[mileslunn]

IMHO BC is starting to lock in a pattern that is very NDP = Democrats and BC Liberals = Republicans. In any American state these days you see once Republican suburbs and exurbs turning solidly Democratic. I'm sure there are wealthier suburbs of Seattle and Portland that were once as GOP as North Vancouver and Richmond and Langley etc... were once BC Liberal - but now those areas are totally Democrat. Similarly in Ontario we now have a situation where anytime the more progressive alternative to the Tories (i.e. the Ontario Liberals and/or NDP) wins - they literally win just about every single seat in the GTA. On the other hand - the BC NDP does worse now than they used to do in the interior (e.g in 2005 the NDP won both Cariboo seats) - but the province as a whole is getting more urban and less rural so that is a trend they can live with.

I think this is an apt assessment.  BC is becoming less Australia, more Washington State or California in its voting patterns.

One thing that has prevented this from happening up until now, and could continue to be a problem, is that anybody who wants to join the provincial NDP also has to be a member of any other New Democratic Party organization.  Generally that means federally, but sometimes municipally as well.  When 'Moderate Mike' Harcourt became leader (by acclimation) this likely prevented a good number of supporters from joining the party.

That is still an issue, but one thing that has changed is the banning of corporate and union donations.  The public sector unions especially don't seem to have anywhere near the influence on the Horgan government, that they've had on previous NDP governments.

I think one difference here is BC Liberals while right wing, they are not nearly as reactionary and as extreme as GOP.  I think better American comparison would be a Kasich led GOP and I suspect if he were GOP leader, the cities proper would stay Democrat, but he would win most of the suburbs unlike Trump.  Heck even Biden and Clinton would probably be BC Liberals while Obama and Harris harder to say but probably both in group who voted BC Liberal until now, but since Horgan not as left wing as NDP in 90s, would swing over.  NDP is more like Sanders wing of the Democrats although Horgan being a bit more moderate has made it acceptable to more centrist types unlike in past.

[mileslunn]

BC Liberals release full platform.  While nothing controversial and some good ideas, reality is leader is salesperson and when you have a very unlikeable leader, it doesn't matter how attractive platform is, people won't even read it.  You need someone who will make people interested and Wilkinson has failed at that.

[mileslunn]

Debate tonight and here are thoughts:

John Horgan: Did alright but really he won just by not losing.  He has a big enough lead that all he to avoid was doing anything stupid which he did.

Andrew Wilkinson: Performed alright, but he needed a knockout punch, something similar in scale to Mulroney's you had an option sir in 1984 and that did not happen so any fleeting chance he had at winning is probably gone.

Sonia Furstenau: Probably had the best performance and might have just saved her seat.  But at end of day at best might help Greens rebound a bit, but unlikely to win them anything they didn't win last time.

[mileslunn]

My guess is BC Liberals if they haven't already will be going into the save the furniture mode.  My question is with Higgs getting a majority, Horgan almost certain to get one, Moe likely to win a landslide, will others be tempted to go early, particularly at federal level.  After all pandemic seems to be benefitting all leaders (well except Jason Kenney) so better to go now before the bills come due which will mean unpopular decisions.

[mileslunn]

My guess is BC Liberals if they haven't already will be going into the save the furniture mode.  My question is with Higgs getting a majority, Horgan almost certain to get one, Moe likely to win a landslide, will others be tempted to go early, particularly at federal level.  After all pandemic seems to be benefitting all leaders (well except Jason Kenney) so better to go now before the bills come due which will mean unpopular decisions.

The problem is that this fall is likely the last window to get in an election while the pandemic still works in favour of incumbents - and almost all the other governments in Canada are way too early in their terms to call an election now. Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec are all majority governments with 2 to 3 years left before the next election. I suppose this window of opportunity could still be open for PEI or Newfoundland or Nova Scotia...but that's about it   

Also there is Trudeau government as well.  I believe with Newfoundland, their fixed election date laws say if new premier chosen they have to go within six months so either Fall or next spring.  For PEI, I believe there is a by-election and if PCs win that, they have a majority.  There is also Yukon too which has been four years, but with no polls there, no idea what is going on there.

[mileslunn]

Is this the first time an incumbent has had to step down during an election? In a "safe" seat too (I suppose it was going to be close this time though)

Sure there have been other, but would have to dig back in history quite a ways.  Closest I can think of was Derek Zeisman in British Columbia Southern Interior in 2006.  This was a conservative held riding, but Jim Gouk, outgoing MP retired.  Conservative candidate Derek Zeisman was dropped by Harper after story surfaced he had smuggled booze over the border.  NDP flipped the riding and interestingly enough have held it since.