BC Election on October 24th

[mileslunn]

I did hear from a number of sources BC Liberals internals are much more optimistic and expect them to win 34-40 seats, 37 or 38 most likely.  I think they are making same mistake Romney made in assuming a lower turnout than it will be, but I guess we will find out soon or at least get an idea.  My guess is still BC Liberals get in 20s although wouldn't be surprised due to NDP strength in mail in ballots BC Liberals finish tonight in low 30s and fall into 20s after mail in ballots counted.

[Oryxslayer]

I did hear from a number of sources BC Liberals internals are much more optimistic and expect them to win 34-40 seats, 37 or 38 most likely.  I think they are making same mistake Romney made in assuming a lower turnout than it will be, but I guess we will find out soon or at least get an idea.  My guess is still BC Liberals get in 20s although wouldn't be surprised due to NDP strength in mail in ballots BC Liberals finish tonight in low 30s and fall into 20s after mail in ballots counted.

Might it be a case of 'priming the pump' where they expect to have a decent result tonight before the mail votes are counted. If the pump is primed, then story heading into the week will be different from the expected one. this could still allow for a moral victory, and maybe challenge the NDPs legitimacy/political capital.

[Oryxslayer]

BC Con leading in Peace river north!...1/73 polls.

[trebor204]

In the 2017, just under 2 million votes were cast

In 2020,  over 725,000 mail in ballots were issued and so far 500,000 have been returned.
Advance voting is 681,000 votes.
Mail in ballots could represent over 1/3 of the ballots cast

[Oryxslayer]

First seat called, Mid-Island Pac rim for the NDP. 50-point NDP lead so, unexpected.

[Jeppe]

This looks to be a slaughter, if most of these votes are e-day only...

[Don Vito Corleone]

Some benchmarks:
45.99% - Best ever NDP vote share at an election, 1979
38/55 - Best ever NDP result as a % of the seats up for contest, 1972; they would have to win 61 seats tonight to break this record due to the Legislature being much larger now.
51 - Most seats ever held by the NDP, 1991

So far, it seems they could surpass all three benchmarks from the way people are talking, but I haven't really payed close attention to this election so I don't really know how realistic 61 seats is.

[Continential]

CBC projects a NDP Government.

[Oryxslayer]

17 NDP seats projected, 4 Lib.

[Continential]

Can someone tell me why the Greens are doing as well as they are?

[Oryxslayer]

Can someone tell me why the Greens are doing as well as they are?

Good Debate performance, NDP voters seeing the polls and casting a Green vote, and Initial polls being unrepresentative of full seats. Of course the Greens are doing decent in their targets seats.

[ON Progressive]

CBC just called an NDP majority.

[Continential]

Can someone tell me why the Greens are doing as well as they are?

Good Debate performance, NDP voters seeing the polls and casting a Green vote, and Initial polls being unrepresentative of full seats. Of course the Greens are doing decent in their targets seats.

That makes sense, with the two swing ones being Nelson-Creston and West Vancouver-Sea to Sky, which is razer tight.

I wonder how the mail votes will lean in the NDP/Green marginals.

[Oryxslayer]

Speaking of Greens, Saanich North and the Islands gets called for them, the only truly safe Green seat in the country.

[skbl17]

According to the CBC, West Van-Sea to Sky is a Green gain. Perhaps a bit early; I'm seeing the Green lead is back below 1,000 (it was over 1,000 when the call was made).

[Njall]

According to the CBC, West Van-Sea to Sky is a Green gain. Perhaps a bit early; I'm seeing the Green lead is back below 1,000 (it was over 1,000 when the call was made).

Looks like it's almost back to 1,000 now, and the commentators were mentioning that the amount of mailed ballots for that riding was pretty low (only around 700).

[skbl17]

According to the CBC, West Van-Sea to Sky is a Green gain. Perhaps a bit early; I'm seeing the Green lead is back below 1,000 (it was over 1,000 when the call was made).

Looks like it's almost back to 1,000 now, and the commentators were mentioning that the amount of mailed ballots for that riding was pretty low (only around 700).

Yeah, Valeriote's lead is holding steady at 800-900 votes. Didn't know the number of mail ballots in that riding was that low; knowing that and seeing that his lead has somewhat stabilized, I think he'll hold his lead.

Solid gain for the Greens nonetheless: winning a seat on the mainland.

[CumbrianLefty]

Those late Liberal "internals" - LOL

[Former President tack50]

Given how the BC Tories got 35% on the 2 Peace River districts and came in an easy second place, any chance they eventually flip in 2024  or next election?

[adma]

Given how the BC Tories got 35% on the 2 Peace River districts and came in an easy second place, any chance they eventually flip in 2024  or next election?

Actually, it'd seem that the BC Cons outperformed virtually *everywhere* they ran this time--not just the Peace River results, but 10%-ish results as the rule most elsewhere that they ran--and on top of that, the *CHP* overperformed in seats where the Cons were not a factor.  That is, this was the best BC election for "minor" right-of-centre parties in eons (and even Throness holding his own in Chilliwack-Kent and outperforming the BC Libs in Chilliwack proper counts)--one would assume that a lot of that reflects "anti-Wilkinson" sentiment on the right that wasn't ready to commit to Horgan.  And it *could* have some bearing on what happens on the right spectrum in BC over the next few years--though it might have been likelier had the Cons actually succeeded in gaining any of those Peace River seats.  (I'll also suppose that "anti-Wilkinson" sentiment also factored into the Greens outperforming riding-by-riding expectations.)

But the fact that the NDP couldn't "match 1972" (or even, in share-of-legislative-seats terms, 1991) can be explained through the Libs' "interior wall" (i.e. the Kamloops/PG/Cariboo/Kootenay seats) largely holding all the same--then again, the way the Horgan wave worked out was such that they didn't *require* all of that, so perhaps they deliberately allowed the line to slacken...

[DL]

As we all know there are close to half a million mail in votes yet to be counted so I suspect that when all the dust settles we may be looking at 57-58 NDP seats given that by all accounts the mail in votes tend to skew heavily NDP. They will likely pick up Abbotsford-Mission and Vernon-Monashee

It also look like the total number of votes cast will be down from 2017 which suggests to me that a lot of BC Liberals stayed home

[Hatman 🍁]

Lots of ridings going NDP that would seem crazy even three years ago. But they couldn't flip fraser-nicola. Any idea why?

[DistingFlyer]

Lots of ridings going NDP that would seem crazy even three years ago. But they couldn't flip fraser-nicola. Any idea why?

In both the last election and this one, the NDP swing was much heavier in Greater Vancouver (and in urban areas generally) than in the province as a whole - 2017 saw a 5% NDP swing in Vancouver, 1.4% on Vancouver Island and a 3% Liberal swing elsewhere. Not sure what the final figures will be this time, but with (so far) nine NDP gains in Greater Vancouver but only three on the rest of the mainland we may see something similar (excepting the pro-Liberal interior swing, of course).

[adma]

Lots of ridings going NDP that would seem crazy even three years ago. But they couldn't flip fraser-nicola. Any idea why?

Skeena is another interior one-that-got-away that *should* have been low hanging fruit for the NDP.

[Oryxslayer]

So here are my thoughts:

This is essentially the NDP's moment to change it's perception. As was noted upthread, this election saw the battle lines more or less drawn between Federal Liberals + NDP vs Federal conservatives when it came to the voters. Traditionally, Federal Liberal-leaning voters would be more divided but side with the BC Libs. The last time the NDP got a majority the political parties remade themselves to prevent another NDP majority. Times and values though have changed. The NDP is in a position where they can a favorable reputation among urban and suburban voters to change who is perceived as the natural party of power in BC. On the other hand, the NDP base voters may demand the party spend its political capital on the types of policies that would exclude voters outside of the base. In this regard, it might have been better for the NDP to get a slimmer majority, so that the govt feels more cautious because they lack a cushion.

Also, this is what a 10% lead in the margins looks like, and we haven't even seen the NDP-favoring mail ballots. Some of the seats that flipped around Vancouver wouldn't have been thought of as targets unless the swing to the NDP was concentrated - which it was. I hope everyone is paying attention, since the NDP had a lead in polls only slightly larger than Bidens...