BC Election on October 24th

[DL]

Insightwest has a post-debate poll out

NDP 47
Libs 33
Greens 14
Cons 5

That is a slightly wider gap than their first poll right at the writ drop when they had the NDP ahead 42-29 and they had the BC Cons at 12% (once again the BC Con vote has evaporated and it has NOT benefitted the Liberals)

They also asked people who won the debate Horgan 28%, Wilkinson 14%, Furstenau 14% - the rest no one... so it appears that the media hype about Furstenau's performance is just that - hype

https://www.insightswest.com/news/post-election-debate-oct-2020/

[mileslunn]

My guess is BC Liberals if they haven't already will be going into the save the furniture mode.  My question is with Higgs getting a majority, Horgan almost certain to get one, Moe likely to win a landslide, will others be tempted to go early, particularly at federal level.  After all pandemic seems to be benefitting all leaders (well except Jason Kenney) so better to go now before the bills come due which will mean unpopular decisions.

[DL]

My guess is BC Liberals if they haven't already will be going into the save the furniture mode.  My question is with Higgs getting a majority, Horgan almost certain to get one, Moe likely to win a landslide, will others be tempted to go early, particularly at federal level.  After all pandemic seems to be benefitting all leaders (well except Jason Kenney) so better to go now before the bills come due which will mean unpopular decisions.

The problem is that this fall is likely the last window to get in an election while the pandemic still works in favour of incumbents - and almost all the other governments in Canada are way too early in their terms to call an election now. Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec are all majority governments with 2 to 3 years left before the next election. I suppose this window of opportunity could still be open for PEI or Newfoundland or Nova Scotia...but that's about it   

[mileslunn]

My guess is BC Liberals if they haven't already will be going into the save the furniture mode.  My question is with Higgs getting a majority, Horgan almost certain to get one, Moe likely to win a landslide, will others be tempted to go early, particularly at federal level.  After all pandemic seems to be benefitting all leaders (well except Jason Kenney) so better to go now before the bills come due which will mean unpopular decisions.

The problem is that this fall is likely the last window to get in an election while the pandemic still works in favour of incumbents - and almost all the other governments in Canada are way too early in their terms to call an election now. Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec are all majority governments with 2 to 3 years left before the next election. I suppose this window of opportunity could still be open for PEI or Newfoundland or Nova Scotia...but that's about it   

Also there is Trudeau government as well.  I believe with Newfoundland, their fixed election date laws say if new premier chosen they have to go within six months so either Fall or next spring.  For PEI, I believe there is a by-election and if PCs win that, they have a majority.  There is also Yukon too which has been four years, but with no polls there, no idea what is going on there.

[DL]

The Trudeau government is one year into a four year term...and they don't seem to be having any problem passing legislation. Of course if they bring in a very unpopular budget full of austerity measures next March - the NDP MIGHT vote against it...but by then the BQ might decide it no longer wants an election. And, of course any budget that is toxic enough to unite the opposition parties is probably also one that would be unpopular with voters 

[Benjamin Frank]

Liberal MLA Laurie Throness voluntarily stepped down as a liberal candidate after equating free birth control with eugenics at a local candidate debate. His name will remain on the ballot though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Is this the first time an incumbent has had to step down during an election? In a "safe" seat too (I suppose it was going to be close this time though)

[warandwar]

Liberal MLA Laurie Throness voluntarily stepped down as a liberal candidate after equating free birth control with eugenics at a local candidate debate. His name will remain on the ballot though.

PhD in history from Cambridge lol.

[mileslunn]

Is this the first time an incumbent has had to step down during an election? In a "safe" seat too (I suppose it was going to be close this time though)

Sure there have been other, but would have to dig back in history quite a ways.  Closest I can think of was Derek Zeisman in British Columbia Southern Interior in 2006.  This was a conservative held riding, but Jim Gouk, outgoing MP retired.  Conservative candidate Derek Zeisman was dropped by Harper after story surfaced he had smuggled booze over the border.  NDP flipped the riding and interestingly enough have held it since.

[adma]

Is this the first time an incumbent has had to step down during an election? In a "safe" seat too (I suppose it was going to be close this time though)

Sure there have been other, but would have to dig back in history quite a ways.  Closest I can think of was Derek Zeisman in British Columbia Southern Interior in 2006.  This was a conservative held riding, but Jim Gouk, outgoing MP retired.  Conservative candidate Derek Zeisman was dropped by Harper after story surfaced he had smuggled booze over the border.  NDP flipped the riding and interestingly enough have held it since.

And interestingly, there's *already* a high-profile "anti-Zeisman" independent on the ballot (Chilliwack councillor Jason Lum), who could be poised to benefit particularly if voters find the NDP a "bridge too far".

[DC Al Fine]

Is this the first time an incumbent has had to step down during an election? In a "safe" seat too (I suppose it was going to be close this time though)

Sure there have been other, but would have to dig back in history quite a ways.  Closest I can think of was Derek Zeisman in British Columbia Southern Interior in 2006.  This was a conservative held riding, but Jim Gouk, outgoing MP retired.  Conservative candidate Derek Zeisman was dropped by Harper after story surfaced he had smuggled booze over the border.  NDP flipped the riding and interestingly enough have held it since.

Wait, that's drop worthy?

I thought everyone who lived close to the border did that.

[Hatman 🍁]

Is this the first time an incumbent has had to step down during an election? In a "safe" seat too (I suppose it was going to be close this time though)

Sure there have been other, but would have to dig back in history quite a ways.  Closest I can think of was Derek Zeisman in British Columbia Southern Interior in 2006.  This was a conservative held riding, but Jim Gouk, outgoing MP retired.  Conservative candidate Derek Zeisman was dropped by Harper after story surfaced he had smuggled booze over the border.  NDP flipped the riding and interestingly enough have held it since.

Not a safe riding though. Gouk won it by 700 votes in 2004. The NDP were going to win it regardless.

[DL]

Chilliwack Kent would normally be a safe BC NDP Riding but not necessarily in an environment where the NDP has a 17 point lead across the province

[DL]

New post-debate poll by Angus Reid:

BC NDP - 49% (unchanged)
BC Liberals - 33% (+2)
BC Greens - 14% (unchanged)
Other - 5% (unchanged)

http://angusreid.org/bc-election-post-debate/

[King of Kensington]

60% in Metro Vancouver.  The NDP may sweep the region except for the "islands of the 1%", West Vancouver and Van-Quilchena.

[Benjamin Frank]

60% in Metro Vancouver.  The NDP may sweep the region except for the "islands of the 1%", West Vancouver and Van-Quilchena.

Likely not Delta South or Richmond North Centre.

Delta South is more like an exurb in that it has a large active religious population.

[King of Kensington]

Has the Globe and Mail ever endorsed the NDP before?


https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/article-in-bcs-pandemic-election-the-liberals-and-ndp-have-reversed-roles/

[Benjamin Frank]

Has the Globe and Mail ever endorsed the NDP before?


https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/article-in-bcs-pandemic-election-the-liberals-and-ndp-have-reversed-roles/

1991

[CumbrianLefty]

Has the Globe and Mail ever endorsed the NDP before?


https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/article-in-bcs-pandemic-election-the-liberals-and-ndp-have-reversed-roles/

1991

When the NDP swept to power with a big majority.

[Tender Branson]

BC has ca. 3.5 million registered voters.

As of yesterday, ca. 450.000 have voted early and another 800.000 or so requested a postal ballot.

Early voting is possible until tomorrow.

[DL]

BC has ca. 3.5 million registered voters.

As of yesterday, ca. 450.000 have voted early and another 800.000 or so requested a postal ballot.

Early voting is possible until tomorrow.

In the 2017 election just under 2 million votes were cast. The conventional wisdom is that turnout may be lower this time so the proportion of all votes cast by Mail or in advance may be a much bigger share of the total

[DL]

Angus Reid has a new poll out today that shows some tightening - though a 10 point lead would still be a blow out by BC standards

NDP - 45%
Libs - 35%
Greens - 16%

http://angusreid.org/bc-election-2020/

Interestingly the NDP has a huge lead among people who are voting by mail or voting at the advance poll while its very close among election day voters...i guess that means that on election night it may look close and then we all have to wait two weeks for the mail in votes to be counted!

[adma]

Interestingly the NDP has a huge lead among people who are voting by mail or voting at the advance poll while its very close among election day voters...i guess that means that on election night it may look close and then we all have to wait two weeks for the mail in votes to be counted!

It could also reflect the relative states of the parties, i.e. NDP voters having more early-decision determination, whereas the undecideds are likelier to be erstwhile BC Liberal supporters not sure whether to stick with the compromised tried and true, or to make the "inconceivable" leap to NDP, or even offer their vote to the Conservatives where applicable...

[Don Vito Corleone]

Fun fact: If the NDP win the most votes in this election, it will be only the third time in BC history the NDP/CCF have won the popular vote at a provincial election (after 1972 and 1991).

[Benjamin Frank]

Fun fact: If the NDP win the most votes in this election, it will be only the third time in BC history the NDP/CCF have won the popular vote at a provincial election (after 1972 and 1991).

Close, but not quite.  Also in 1952.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1952_British_Columbia_general_election

That was a very contentious election because the anti CCF Liberal-Conservative coalition at that time was splintering and they brought in ranked ballot voting for that election specifically to keep the CCF out of power.