CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1433109540115927046?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

How is that possible? No state in any election has higher turnout in a off year election vs a presidential election

It could be ballot cannibalization. 

Due to Delta surge, perhaps.

Or because CA mailed ballots to every registered voter.

[Cyrusman]

I’ve noticed a lot of big name more liberal democrats such as Bernie sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and the unpopular Kamala Harris doing quite a bit of campaigning.

Is that just because it’s California the most liberal state in the country? For example let’s say this recall was for the Arizona governorship . Would democrats still have Bernie, Elizabeth Warren, and Harris campaign for the democrat nominee?

[Хahar 🤔]

I’ve noticed a lot of big name more liberal democrats such as Bernie sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and the unpopular Kamala Harris doing quite a bit of campaigning.

Is that just because it’s California the most liberal state in the country? For example let’s say this recall was for the Arizona governorship . Would democrats still have Bernie, Elizabeth Warren, and Harris campaign for the democrat nominee?

It sure seems like you've already come up with an answer to your question.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1433109540115927046?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

How is that possible? No state in any election has higher turnout in a off year election vs a presidential election

It could be ballot cannibalization. 

Due to Delta surge, perhaps.

Or because CA mailed ballots to every registered voter.

Didn't they do that last year too, though? Because that wouldn't exactly explain the higher absentee turnout at an equivalent point out from the election that's being seen in this off-year special election compared to last year's presidential.

[Non Swing Voter]

This recall is a joke.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/09/02/newsom-has-strong-support-in-latest-california-recall-survey-1390636

This should be news to no-one. 

[Matty]

This recall is a joke.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/09/02/newsom-has-strong-support-in-latest-california-recall-survey-1390636

This should be news to no-one. 

I don't think it will be that wide a margin, but I think 2 things happened that helped newsom

1) elder is running on a platform way to the right of the state.

2) the mailing of ballots got democrats to realize there was an election.

I do think it is a bad thing in the long run for my state though. I think it is very reasonable to believe that one party rule leads to bad policy.

We saw that first hand in CA with that absurd AB5 law that banned people from seeking work as independent contractors. It messed up so many lives.

A GOP governor would at least lead to gridlock.

[wbrocks67]

This recall is a joke.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/09/02/newsom-has-strong-support-in-latest-california-recall-survey-1390636

This should be news to no-one. 

I don't think it will be that wide a margin, but I think 2 things happened that helped newsom

1) elder is running on a platform way to the right of the state.

2) the mailing of ballots got democrats to realize there was an election.

I do think it is a bad thing in the long run for my state though. I think it is very reasonable to believe that one party rule leads to bad policy.

We saw that first hand in CA with that absurd AB5 law that banned people from seeking work as independent contractors. It messed up so many lives.

A GOP governor would at least lead to gridlock.

Gridlock helps literally no one.

[StateBoiler]

This recall is a joke.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/09/02/newsom-has-strong-support-in-latest-california-recall-survey-1390636

This should be news to no-one.  

I don't think it will be that wide a margin, but I think 2 things happened that helped newsom

1) elder is running on a platform way to the right of the state.

2) the mailing of ballots got democrats to realize there was an election.

I do think it is a bad thing in the long run for my state though. I think it is very reasonable to believe that one party rule leads to bad policy.

We saw that first hand in CA with that absurd AB5 law that banned people from seeking work as independent contractors. It messed up so many lives.

A GOP governor would at least lead to gridlock.

Gridlock helps literally no one.

Then disband the State Assembly and have an elective monarchy. That's what a lot of people think the President of the United States is supposed to be after all.

[DrScholl]

What purpose does gridlock serve? If nothing gets done it benefits no one.

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned = 4,657,494
Dems 2,500,798 (53.7%)
Reps 1,122,577 (24.1%)
Ind/Other 1,034,119 (22.2%)

Turnout = Dems (24%), Reps (21%), Ind/Other (16%)

Total ballots returned = 5,054,661
Dems 2,699,178 (53.4%)
Reps 1,230,796 (24.3%)
Ind/Other 1,124,687 (22.3%)

Turnout = Dems (26%), Reps (23%), Ind/Other (17%)

[wbrocks67]

Also an interesting nugget:

Turnout by ethnic group:
Whites 27%
Asian 22%
Blacks 21%
Latinos 14%

I'm surprised by the strong turnout of Asians/Blacks relative to Whites and Latinos.

[LabourJersey]

This recall is a joke.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/09/02/newsom-has-strong-support-in-latest-california-recall-survey-1390636

This should be news to no-one.  

I don't think it will be that wide a margin, but I think 2 things happened that helped newsom

1) elder is running on a platform way to the right of the state.

2) the mailing of ballots got democrats to realize there was an election.

I do think it is a bad thing in the long run for my state though. I think it is very reasonable to believe that one party rule leads to bad policy.

We saw that first hand in CA with that absurd AB5 law that banned people from seeking work as independent contractors. It messed up so many lives.

A GOP governor would at least lead to gridlock.

Gridlock helps literally no one.

Then disband the State Assembly and have an elective monarchy. That's what a lot of people think the President of the United States is supposed to be after all.

or just have a unicameral legislature w/ most of the governing power, and reduce the governor to a kind of figurehead. Just go full parliamentary system at this point--it's certainly would be better than the status quo

[MasterJedi]

When Newsom wins by a not close margin he needs to get the state to send the bill to the CAGOP for all the waste. Tell them they need help balance the budget of their failure.

[Agafin]

Also an interesting nugget:

Turnout by ethnic group:
Whites 27%
Asian 22%
Blacks 21%
Latinos 14%

I'm surprised by the strong turnout of Asians/Blacks relative to Whites and Latinos.

The black turnout doesn't look strong to me. Don't black voters typically turn out at slightly lower levels than whites? I think the Asian turnout is the one that's really impressive. Latino turnout is poor as usual.

[Хahar 🤔]

I got a robocall just a few minutes ago telling me to vote yes, which is the first pro-recall message I've received other than one or two signs on houses. The reasons presented to vote yes were cost of living, crime (there was reference to Newsom releasing dangerous criminals), and gas taxes. The call also stated that "his handling of COVID-19 has hurt everyone" although it did not elaborate on this point; I found it noteworthy that that was the only reference to the public health situation.

The call went on to say that "this is not about Democrats versus Republicans, it's about finding a governor who cares about you" which I guess is the messaging that's meant to appeal to Democratic voters; notably, it did not say anything at all about whom that governor who cares about you might be. There was a repeated exhortation not to wait until election day to vote, which fits with things that other people in this thread have said about how voting patterns in California mean that we shouldn't expect a flood of Republicans on election day. The message was paid for by Larry Elder Ballot Measure Committee Recall Newsom, and the note at the end stating that was the only time any replacement candidate was mentioned at all.

[THG]

Everything I am seeing so far is pointing to “No” winning by around 6-15 points. Maybe once in person voting starts we’ll see a surge in Republican turnout, however, thus significantly closing the current gap.

I also *still* don’t see Newsom doing well in SoCal whatsoever. It will be the Bay Area that bails him out.

[THG]

The fact that it is apparently *mostly* older and whiter voters who are turning out is rather fascinating. Any idea on how this may effect the election, if at all?

[Greedo punched first]

If Newsom is recalled and Feinstein dies, the legislature could strip the governor of the power to appoint a replacement. Would this require an amendment to the state constitution or just a new statute?

[Progressive Pessimist]

What purpose does gridlock serve? If nothing gets done it benefits no one.

Our idiot populace always complains about this, yet can't help themselves but to vote for it. Americans are not a thinking people.

[Cyrusman]

What purpose does gridlock serve? If nothing gets done it benefits no one.

Ask MA voters. There is clearly a reason one of the bluest states in the nation loves their Republican governors

[DrScholl]

What purpose does gridlock serve? If nothing gets done it benefits no one.

Ask MA voters. There is clearly a reason one of the bluest states in the nation loves their Republican governors

I don't think Massachusetts is at a stand still because the Governor and legislature are at each other's throats. My impression of gridlock is that is that nothing at all gets done.

[StateBoiler]

This recall is a joke.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/09/02/newsom-has-strong-support-in-latest-california-recall-survey-1390636

This should be news to no-one.  

I don't think it will be that wide a margin, but I think 2 things happened that helped newsom

1) elder is running on a platform way to the right of the state.

2) the mailing of ballots got democrats to realize there was an election.

I do think it is a bad thing in the long run for my state though. I think it is very reasonable to believe that one party rule leads to bad policy.

We saw that first hand in CA with that absurd AB5 law that banned people from seeking work as independent contractors. It messed up so many lives.

A GOP governor would at least lead to gridlock.

Gridlock helps literally no one.

Then disband the State Assembly and have an elective monarchy. That's what a lot of people think the President of the United States is supposed to be after all.

or just have a unicameral legislature w/ most of the governing power, and reduce the governor to a kind of figurehead. Just go full parliamentary system at this point--it's certainly would be better than the status quo

1. No one would vote for that. No one in the U.S. outside of their districts voted for Nancy Pelosi and Kevin McCarthy. Once met a man in a bar in Windsor and we were discussing politics, he very much hated Trudeau back in the summer of 2019. He told me "you have to understand this, unlike you, I don't get to vote for who runs my country".
2. If your goal is to reduce gridlock, why would you have a parliamentary system? There would be less gridlock having 1 person's point of view carry the day instead of 50. Besides most parliamentary systems are heavily presidentialized, making them de facto monarchial-style executives (see Canada).

(I'm not in favor of this system because it heavily centralizes power way too much. But if you view politics as "we must get rid of all gridlock", a single-person executive would have less gridlock than a parliamentary legislature.)

In a parliamentary system, if all gridlock is bad, what's the point of even allowing the opposition - any opposition - into the building? We should just have whichever party has the most seats do their work and the opposition should remain locked outside and voiceless, because if the ruling party is cohesive on votes, nothing the opposition says or do will matter.

[Holmes]

What purpose does gridlock serve? If nothing gets done it benefits no one.

Ask MA voters. There is clearly a reason one of the bluest states in the nation loves their Republican governors

Congrats to Massachusetts but that won’t be us.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What purpose does gridlock serve? If nothing gets done it benefits no one.

Ask MA voters. There is clearly a reason one of the bluest states in the nation loves their Republican governors

Congrats to Massachusetts but that won’t be us.

Yep, the Best Coast is just built different.

[LabourJersey]

This recall is a joke.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/09/02/newsom-has-strong-support-in-latest-california-recall-survey-1390636

This should be news to no-one.  

I don't think it will be that wide a margin, but I think 2 things happened that helped newsom

1) elder is running on a platform way to the right of the state.

2) the mailing of ballots got democrats to realize there was an election.

I do think it is a bad thing in the long run for my state though. I think it is very reasonable to believe that one party rule leads to bad policy.

We saw that first hand in CA with that absurd AB5 law that banned people from seeking work as independent contractors. It messed up so many lives.

A GOP governor would at least lead to gridlock.

Gridlock helps literally no one.

Then disband the State Assembly and have an elective monarchy. That's what a lot of people think the President of the United States is supposed to be after all.

or just have a unicameral legislature w/ most of the governing power, and reduce the governor to a kind of figurehead. Just go full parliamentary system at this point--it's certainly would be better than the status quo

1. No one would vote for that. No one in the U.S. outside of their districts voted for Nancy Pelosi and Kevin McCarthy. Once met a man in a bar in Windsor and we were discussing politics, he very much hated Trudeau back in the summer of 2019. He told me "you have to understand this, unlike you, I don't get to vote for who runs my country".
2. If your goal is to reduce gridlock, why would you have a parliamentary system? There would be less gridlock having 1 person's point of view carry the day instead of 50. Besides most parliamentary systems are heavily presidentialized, making them de facto monarchial-style executives (see Canada).

(I'm not in favor of this system because it heavily centralizes power way too much. But if you view politics as "we must get rid of all gridlock", a single-person executive would have less gridlock than a parliamentary legislature.)

In a parliamentary system, if all gridlock is bad, what's the point of even allowing the opposition - any opposition - into the building? We should just have whichever party has the most seats do their work and the opposition should remain locked outside and voiceless, because if the ruling party is cohesive on votes, nothing the opposition says or do will matter.

I mean, that guy in Windsor votes for a political party, one with a written, specific manifesto containing all that it intends to do. Every candidate in every constituency is selected to vote for that manifesto, or at least the vast majority of it. That seems like the ingredients for less gridlock than the existing system.

I agree with you that a parliament is a tough ask for American voters. But at the very least we need strong parties where every single member of a legislature is elected on a manifesto, one that voters can access and see that they'll get X, Y and Z if the party wins as opposed to now, where basically policies are based on what the most resistant members agree to.