CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[LabourJersey]

What are the chance of a recall by now? The petition already has a million signatures, and need 500,000 or so by March 17.

I don't see the recall succeeding personally but it looks like it has a chance of happening at the very least?

[LabourJersey]

What are the chance of a recall by now? The petition already has a million signatures, and need 500,000 or so by March 17.

I don't see the recall succeeding personally but it looks like it has a chance of happening at the very least?

I think the odds are still slim considering how many signatures will be DQ'd.

Makes sense

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1386802857047851009?s=19

Given that CA has, what, 15M+ registered voters, it feels as though 1.5M seems like a very low threshold for a recall.

The recall and initiative guidelines were voted in place in 1911 and definitely should be updated I think Hiram Johnson had no clue how big the state would end up getting. I think it should probably be something like 25% of registered voters instead of 12 % of ballots cast in the last election especially with us having our elections in lower turnout midterms. I am a fan of having the ballot initiative process we have passed many laws it would take much longer to get through the state leg but it does have its downsides. and now its easy for corporations to buys laws (Prop 22 and 23)

That's an excellent reason to be *NOT* a big fan of ballot initiatives.

Pretty much all direct democracy "reforms" have been basically hijacked by political extremists and interests in order to push through policies that voters have barely thought about. Brexit is the biggest, most clear example of this but California's history of bad policies being pushed through the ballot should be warning enough.

[LabourJersey]

I’m rooting for a “no” vote on the recall, but I also do hope a credible Democratic candidates runs just in case the recall succeeds. It’s just too risky not to run someone. Running someone like Antonio Villaraigosa would be a good idea, in my opinion. He’s not necessarily a young, rising star in the party that would steal the spotlight from Newsom, but he’s also credible enough that if the recall succeeds, he could probably easily win the election to hold the seat for Democrats (especially given how many republicans are in the race to split the vote with each other).

I doubt there will be a high profile Dem running like Villaraigosa unless it looks like Newsom is doomed or badly damaged, neither of which look true right now.

He still has approval ratings around 51%, I find it really implausible that he loses especially since COVID can only go down in urgency/relevance in people's minds from here.

[LabourJersey]

Newsom will prevail, but his political future is over at the same time. He will never be president. NEVER.

Even before COVID, he was never gonna be president. NEVER.

Why? He's too slick? I always saw him as someone who was positioning to be the new Bill Clinton/Tony Blair....slick, affable, and charming, but for some reasons it never aligned....

Newsom isn't charming and definitely doesn't have the kind of "I feel your pain" affability that Bill Clinton possessed.

He can be too easily painted as an elitist San Franciscan liberal, and never had too much of a path to the White House anyway, but his weakness in this race has pretty destroyed any chance of higher office for him regardless of the result

[LabourJersey]

Newsom will prevail, but his political future is over at the same time. He will never be president. NEVER.

Even before COVID, he was never gonna be president. NEVER.

Funny that never being President somehow equals having no political future. For the next 5 1/2 years he is going to be governor of California, after that who knows maybe a cabinet position/ Senator or maybe just being an influential private citizen. Sounds like  a political future to me.

I doubt he'll ever be Senator given how deep the California Democratic bench is, but I do mostly agree with you.

I think it's possible that if it's a very close race Newsom may be forced to bow out of a second term, but that's unlikely. So he will still be around until January 2027 unless a scandal forces his resignation, so he certainly will remain relevant (for better or for worse)

[LabourJersey]

This recall is a joke.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/09/02/newsom-has-strong-support-in-latest-california-recall-survey-1390636

This should be news to no-one.  

I don't think it will be that wide a margin, but I think 2 things happened that helped newsom

1) elder is running on a platform way to the right of the state.

2) the mailing of ballots got democrats to realize there was an election.

I do think it is a bad thing in the long run for my state though. I think it is very reasonable to believe that one party rule leads to bad policy.

We saw that first hand in CA with that absurd AB5 law that banned people from seeking work as independent contractors. It messed up so many lives.

A GOP governor would at least lead to gridlock.

Gridlock helps literally no one.

Then disband the State Assembly and have an elective monarchy. That's what a lot of people think the President of the United States is supposed to be after all.

or just have a unicameral legislature w/ most of the governing power, and reduce the governor to a kind of figurehead. Just go full parliamentary system at this point--it's certainly would be better than the status quo

[LabourJersey]

This recall is a joke.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/09/02/newsom-has-strong-support-in-latest-california-recall-survey-1390636

This should be news to no-one.  

I don't think it will be that wide a margin, but I think 2 things happened that helped newsom

1) elder is running on a platform way to the right of the state.

2) the mailing of ballots got democrats to realize there was an election.

I do think it is a bad thing in the long run for my state though. I think it is very reasonable to believe that one party rule leads to bad policy.

We saw that first hand in CA with that absurd AB5 law that banned people from seeking work as independent contractors. It messed up so many lives.

A GOP governor would at least lead to gridlock.

Gridlock helps literally no one.

Then disband the State Assembly and have an elective monarchy. That's what a lot of people think the President of the United States is supposed to be after all.

or just have a unicameral legislature w/ most of the governing power, and reduce the governor to a kind of figurehead. Just go full parliamentary system at this point--it's certainly would be better than the status quo

1. No one would vote for that. No one in the U.S. outside of their districts voted for Nancy Pelosi and Kevin McCarthy. Once met a man in a bar in Windsor and we were discussing politics, he very much hated Trudeau back in the summer of 2019. He told me "you have to understand this, unlike you, I don't get to vote for who runs my country".
2. If your goal is to reduce gridlock, why would you have a parliamentary system? There would be less gridlock having 1 person's point of view carry the day instead of 50. Besides most parliamentary systems are heavily presidentialized, making them de facto monarchial-style executives (see Canada).

(I'm not in favor of this system because it heavily centralizes power way too much. But if you view politics as "we must get rid of all gridlock", a single-person executive would have less gridlock than a parliamentary legislature.)

In a parliamentary system, if all gridlock is bad, what's the point of even allowing the opposition - any opposition - into the building? We should just have whichever party has the most seats do their work and the opposition should remain locked outside and voiceless, because if the ruling party is cohesive on votes, nothing the opposition says or do will matter.

I mean, that guy in Windsor votes for a political party, one with a written, specific manifesto containing all that it intends to do. Every candidate in every constituency is selected to vote for that manifesto, or at least the vast majority of it. That seems like the ingredients for less gridlock than the existing system.

I agree with you that a parliament is a tough ask for American voters. But at the very least we need strong parties where every single member of a legislature is elected on a manifesto, one that voters can access and see that they'll get X, Y and Z if the party wins as opposed to now, where basically policies are based on what the most resistant members agree to.

[LabourJersey]

Is there a separate thread for the LA Mayor's election?