CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[StateBoiler]

What are the chance of a recall by now? The petition already has a million signatures, and need 500,000 or so by March 17.

I don't see the recall succeeding personally but it looks like it has a chance of happening at the very least?

I think the odds are still slim considering how many signatures will be DQ'd.

Grounds?

[StateBoiler]

What are the chance of a recall by now? The petition already has a million signatures, and need 500,000 or so by March 17.

I don't see the recall succeeding personally but it looks like it has a chance of happening at the very least?

I think the odds are still slim considering how many signatures will be DQ'd.

Grounds?

The usual grounds for disqualifying signatures — signature doesn't match, address doesn't match address on file, signed twice, signed for someone else, don't live in the state, etc. They probably need 2 million to make sure they have 1.5 million valid signatures.

They should use the same standards they used for people trying to vote last November, otherwise it's not equal protection.  If they disqualified people's votes for the general on those grounds, then it's within reason they can disqualify here for the same reason. Same is true for the flip case.

[StateBoiler]

What are the chance of a recall by now? The petition already has a million signatures, and need 500,000 or so by March 17.

I don't see the recall succeeding personally but it looks like it has a chance of happening at the very least?

I think the odds are still slim considering how many signatures will be DQ'd.

Grounds?

The usual grounds for disqualifying signatures — signature doesn't match, address doesn't match address on file, signed twice, signed for someone else, don't live in the state, etc. They probably need 2 million to make sure they have 1.5 million valid signatures.

They should use the same standards they used for people trying to vote last November, otherwise it's not equal protection.  If they disqualified people's votes for the general on those grounds, then it's within reason they can disqualify here for the same reason. Same is true for the flip case.

These are normal hurdles for anything in politics that requires you as a citizen to sign something to be presented to the govt, no matter the state. Remember the saga of Kanye and how he had to submit 3x the threshold to even have a shot at being accepted? Ever taken a look at a ballot petition campaign? Hell, part of the reason the turnaround for forms you fill out in a govt office is so slow is because they need to confirm that it's actually you and not fraud.

I'm not disagreeing. I'm just saying if you're disqualifying a person's signature on a petition for wrong address, it should apply for all things the individual does or tries to do, not just this one particular case.

[StateBoiler]

Sadly, the party has coalesced around him. He has literally sucked for 15 years and just climbed. It's so damn annoying. He's utterly corrupt and incompetent. He has literally accomplished nothing--he does not have a single significant legislative accomplishment despite no actual opposition. It's a damn shame this recall effort was so partisan and GOP-led. There's so much material to push moderates and progressives against Newsom, but they're (rightfully) against anything with a whiff of the Republican party on it.

Oh well. Recall Newsom. Impeach Cuomo. Elect new Democrats.

The thing that's annoying about Newsom is he had to get tricks pulled and national resources put into him to win the Mayor of San Francisco. He was taken to a run-off by the Green Party candidate and the Democrats were scared at the time. How do you go from "I need national party help to defeat a Green for Mayor" to "I'm the best candidate the Democrats can run for Governor"? Are Democrats outside of the Bay Area that disorganized that they can't stop the San Francisco Clan from winning everything?

[StateBoiler]

Ose probably is one of the stronger Republicans who could run.

Assuming he's top Republican, the recall is Lean D.

Are you doing this on purpose or something?

I see this recall as similar to the Senate race in 2010. The incumbent is favored, but it wouldn't take much to knock him out.

With Grenell (the only other significant Republican who has declared interest so far), I'd have it as Safe D. California isn't going to vote for a Trump appointee.

Why are you differentiating between the potential effects of their candidacies on the race as if there's a pre-recall primary or something? There's no top-2 system for the recall that could result in races like Democrat vs. Ose or Democrat vs. Grenell, they're both gonna be on the recall ballot alongside every single candidate not named Gavin Newsom & in the event that the latter is recalled, the candidate with a plurality wins.

It's an invisible primary. Republicans are (mostly) going to gravitate to one candidate, if they want the best chance at not electing another Democrat to replace Newsom.

You have a lot more faith in the California Republican Party than any one in California does.

It's not going to happen. Not with a "moderate" Mayor who is detested by 1/3 of the party, not with a Trumpist who is detested by 1/3 of the party, not with a random OC businessman who lost to Newsom by 24% and especially not with some early 2000s Congressman who faded away in 2018 for said random OC businessman & Travis f**kin Allen.

Simply put, the California Republican Party is a schizophrenic mess. Short of a Schwarzengger-like figure entering the race (You tell me who that'd be), they're gonna keep on pointing fingers while Newsom/Democrats just have to shake their heads & laugh.

The Rock. Per his new TV sitcom he's running for president in 2032. Needs to learn somewhere.

(I kid...some.)

Re Newsom and Democrats shaking their heads and laughing, the L.A. Times did an analysis comparing Covid deaths in the state to Florida and the much criticized DeSantis. California is 7% less deaths than Florida per capita, but that difference can easily be explained by Florida's older population considering how the lethality of Covid is significantly higher among the elderly (average age in Florida is 5 years higher than California). Meanwhile you have public schools that can't or won't reopen in parts of the state due to teachers' unions and this lost year is going to be the biggest driver of achievement gaps for these kids compared to the schools there that are in session in living memory, so we're failing the public school kids, he imposed all these restrictions on people's lives that he himself did not live up to go to a campaign fundraiser, which is not great optics, and meanwhile the state's economy is shot to hell. And per Blairite, with a supermajority Democratic legislature he does not have one achievement. He'll probably defeat the recall, but he's not a good Governor.

Think the most realistic good result considering the state of California politics is Newsom is removed and he is replaced by another Democrat.

[StateBoiler]

Schiff is an awesome guy, but don't take any more House members out. Democrats already lost Haaland, Fudge and Richmond, which is currently just a 219-211 majority until the special election take place. From briefly checking the candidates, I think Bonta is a good choice.

I'm in for Bonta too honestly. Fits the moment and he could potentially be Gov one day

I’d echo this. We don’t need to be taking more folks from the US House as also mentioned.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/16/us/politics/dianne-feinstein-biden.html?force_isolation=true

Buried in this (mostly wishcasting) article about Democrats trying to push California Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) out of her seat in favor of someone younger and more left-wing is the nugget that Nevada Rep. Dina Titus (D) is thought to be actively lobbying the Biden administration for an ambassadorship, possibly to Greece. Should Titus be named an Ambassador she would vacate her deep-blue NV-1 seat covering the center of the Las Vegas metro area.

[StateBoiler]

The recall power should be eliminated. America has far too many provisions which just entrench minority rule

This is not an American thing as the power only exists where Progressives circa 1910 gained power.

[StateBoiler]

LA Times with a scathing editorial that they probably wrote back in January. Not that it's significant or anything, but it certainly restates some of my problems with this fever dream:

If Newsom survives the recall, state taxpayers will have spent as much as $400 million (in addition to the untold millions ponied up by campaign donors) on a special election that changed nothing.

The State of California via its Employment Development Department since the pandemic has started has admitted to paying out $31 billion in fraudulent unemployment insurance claims.

https://abc7news.com/california-edd-unemployment-fraud-ca-scam-insurance/10011810/

So to properly do scaling since a dollar is a dollar, for every 1 article the L.A. Times writes about the cost of the recall election, they should write 77 articles about the fraudulent unemployment insurance claims the state has paid out. I'll be nice and round down from 77.5.

https://calmatters.org/explainers/california-edd-unemployment-crisis-explained/

“This will be the largest fraud investigation in the history of America,” said Blake Hall, CEO of state identity verification contractor ID.me, “and it won’t even be close.”

[StateBoiler]

The recall power should be eliminated. America has far too many provisions which just entrench minority rule

This is not an American thing as the power only exists where Progressives circa 1910 gained power.

Both is correct. However, other countries allow certain officers to be recalled as well; some German states permit recalls for mayors.

Governors however should be elected for four years and the legislature should have the power to impeach in case of severe wrongdoings or criminal behavior. This recall here is a political stunt.

Yeah, because impeachments are never political stunts.

This is the law. You don't like the law? Go get it changed. Go pass a constitutional amendment. Start a ballot initiative campaign. But only if you're a Californian, otherwise a lack of standing exists.

[StateBoiler]

Regardless of result - I expect Newsom will survive narrowly, which is damaging enough for any national prospects he has or should be unless California Democrats are complete morons - what a complete waste of space this man is. Let's remember that he required national Democratic Party help to defeat a MEMBER OF THE GREEN PARTY in a runoff for Mayor of San Francisco. It's insane that when you perform that poorly that outside resources have to come in to boost you above a 3rd-party candidate (and there's a credible argument that the super-minority Republican Party of San Francisco are what pushed him over the top to give him the win over Gonzalez) you then become the strongest guy that can potentially be put forward to be the executive of California.

[StateBoiler]

Regardless of result - I expect Newsom will survive narrowly, which is damaging enough for any national prospects he has or should be unless California Democrats are complete morons - what a complete waste of space this man is. Let's remember that he required national Democratic Party help to defeat a MEMBER OF THE GREEN PARTY in a runoff for Mayor of San Francisco. It's insane that when you perform that poorly that outside resources have to come in to boost you above a 3rd-party candidate (and there's a credible argument that the super-minority Republican Party of San Francisco are what pushed him over the top to give him the win over Gonzalez) you then become the strongest guy that can potentially be put forward to be the executive of California.

To be fair in that mayoral run off the Green Party candidate was an actually officeholder as a member of the board of supervisors. It's not like Newsom was running against a random third party perennial or something.

It's San Francisco! How many times did Nancy Pelosi have to get help to win a congressional election there against non-Democrats?

[StateBoiler]

Let's remember that he required national Democratic Party help to defeat a MEMBER OF THE GREEN PARTY in a runoff for Mayor of San Francisco.

This is not really in any way an accurate reading of San Francisco municipal politics.

I remember this election. National Democrats pulled out the stops because they didn't want to suffer an embarassment in Nancy Pelosi's backyard. If you're the pick of the Democratic Party establishment in the area and need help to win a Mayor of San Francisco election - including from S.F. Republicans - there should be serious questions asked about your skill level as a politician. And then setting that aside, he later became the Democratic Party pick to be Governor of California.

[StateBoiler]

Politico.com article saying Democrats are scared of weak Latino turnout and slowly trending Republican as Newsom is compared to a stale Mexican Coke.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/31/democrats-latino-turnout-california-recall-508012

Article does have a Republican Latino political consultant saying he's seeing no change in data as far as how Latinos are going to vote, analysts are just hopped up about it.

I know people say the redistricting commission is independent, but this recall is going to lead to some changing narratives as far as drawing districts if some parts of the voting population are shifting.

[StateBoiler]

This recall is a joke.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/09/02/newsom-has-strong-support-in-latest-california-recall-survey-1390636

This should be news to no-one.  

I don't think it will be that wide a margin, but I think 2 things happened that helped newsom

1) elder is running on a platform way to the right of the state.

2) the mailing of ballots got democrats to realize there was an election.

I do think it is a bad thing in the long run for my state though. I think it is very reasonable to believe that one party rule leads to bad policy.

We saw that first hand in CA with that absurd AB5 law that banned people from seeking work as independent contractors. It messed up so many lives.

A GOP governor would at least lead to gridlock.

Gridlock helps literally no one.

Then disband the State Assembly and have an elective monarchy. That's what a lot of people think the President of the United States is supposed to be after all.

[StateBoiler]

This recall is a joke.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/09/02/newsom-has-strong-support-in-latest-california-recall-survey-1390636

This should be news to no-one.  

I don't think it will be that wide a margin, but I think 2 things happened that helped newsom

1) elder is running on a platform way to the right of the state.

2) the mailing of ballots got democrats to realize there was an election.

I do think it is a bad thing in the long run for my state though. I think it is very reasonable to believe that one party rule leads to bad policy.

We saw that first hand in CA with that absurd AB5 law that banned people from seeking work as independent contractors. It messed up so many lives.

A GOP governor would at least lead to gridlock.

Gridlock helps literally no one.

Then disband the State Assembly and have an elective monarchy. That's what a lot of people think the President of the United States is supposed to be after all.

or just have a unicameral legislature w/ most of the governing power, and reduce the governor to a kind of figurehead. Just go full parliamentary system at this point--it's certainly would be better than the status quo

1. No one would vote for that. No one in the U.S. outside of their districts voted for Nancy Pelosi and Kevin McCarthy. Once met a man in a bar in Windsor and we were discussing politics, he very much hated Trudeau back in the summer of 2019. He told me "you have to understand this, unlike you, I don't get to vote for who runs my country".
2. If your goal is to reduce gridlock, why would you have a parliamentary system? There would be less gridlock having 1 person's point of view carry the day instead of 50. Besides most parliamentary systems are heavily presidentialized, making them de facto monarchial-style executives (see Canada).

(I'm not in favor of this system because it heavily centralizes power way too much. But if you view politics as "we must get rid of all gridlock", a single-person executive would have less gridlock than a parliamentary legislature.)

In a parliamentary system, if all gridlock is bad, what's the point of even allowing the opposition - any opposition - into the building? We should just have whichever party has the most seats do their work and the opposition should remain locked outside and voiceless, because if the ruling party is cohesive on votes, nothing the opposition says or do will matter.