CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Oryxslayer]

Poizner was the test balloon to see if Moderate republicans running as professionalized independents could win statewide. I noted this at the time and mapped Poizner's primary statewide specifically for this reason. Poizner had everything going for him: endorsements from prominent papers in blue metro areas, a divided democratic vote ideologically, a base in Blue silicon valley, a proven track record to run on, a position far below the polarizing toplines, and much more.

Poizner lost. The test balloon popped.

CA is too blue for a non-dem to win without scandals and widespread disapproval, and the nature of the state means that it's more likely a technocrat from one of the metros runs as a not-Dem and gets runoff slot 2. CA, like TX, needs a lot of money to get a campaign going. The state GOP is in a casket and the federal party has far more attractive targets, leading to even the most attractive republicans getting hung out to dry.

What's going to be interesting in CA 2022 is how the legislature gets shaken up after redistricting, and how that squares with potential openings higher up. Also potentially Kamala's senate seat.

[Oryxslayer]

Interesting that 16 is failing. You would think that with the current environment the suburban voter would be more receptive to restoring affirmative action. Guess it isn't enough. The results map might be interesting given that the Prop's pulling in different types of lock-sold Dem voters than the usual partisan issue/candidate in a 50/50 race. I can see No doing better in the Bay Area and the whiter counties like Marin, and worse in the valley and LA when compared to say Poizer's electoral map.

[Oryxslayer]

Well, he's in, unfortunately for the GOP, he ain't it. I've noted elsewhere about how the CA GOP is stuck is perpetual oblivion because the state is too large to adequately organize in when you are DOA, and to build the infrastructure to compete a candidate needs the cash that the national party will always syphon away to the 47 cheaper states that are more realistic targets. Then we get to the structural issues and how the "moderate technocratic conservative" doesn't work for the GOP anymore, as shown by Poizner who had EVERYTHING working in his favor. When presented with two candidates who are essentially pitching the same basic idea, competent govt, voters go for the party they have conditioned themselves to approve of. Next up is the primary electorate issue, and how Faulconer's moderate and Trump-dissaproving track record will ensure that he loses the runoff slot to someone from the authoritarian wing (say perpetual grifter Omar Navarro), if that person runs and gets the adequate media presence on places like Facebook needed to appeal to the backcountry radical conservatives.

If the GOP wants to actually be competitive, the can't nominate a suit with a Conservative brand of any color or alignment. What the GOP needs is to catch lightning in a bottle like they did with the Governator. Arnold had a brand large enough to compensate for a declining statewide GOP one, had an image that allowed voters to imagine the type of Republican they wanted in him, was clearly Conservative but visualized the right things to not immediately push away the legions of minorities and Democrats needed for victory, and had a following among voters who were usually reliably Democratic. The only person in the state who I thought could replicate that was Elon Musk, but he's relocation to Texas sunk that ship before it was even built. Musk right now has no apparent interest in electoral politics, and it would probably have taken things like Prop 22 getting rejected for him to step in and claim to 'defend' tech.

Oh, and reminder that the only long-term effect of a recall would be the Dem super-majorities and Democratic voters opting to scrap the recall provisions. It would be laid bare as a tool for the GOP to try and keep forcing for the outcome they and not the majority of CA voters want, so the voters would happily do away with it in the name of preserving the popular mandate.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1346328340941000712?s=20

Food for thought.

[Oryxslayer]

What are the chance of a recall by now? The petition already has a million signatures, and need 500,000 or so by March 17.

I don't see the recall succeeding personally but it looks like it has a chance of happening at the very least?

I think the odds are still slim considering how many signatures will be DQ'd.

Grounds?

The usual grounds for disqualifying signatures — signature doesn't match, address doesn't match address on file, signed twice, signed for someone else, don't live in the state, etc. They probably need 2 million to make sure they have 1.5 million valid signatures.

They should use the same standards they used for people trying to vote last November, otherwise it's not equal protection.  If they disqualified people's votes for the general on those grounds, then it's within reason they can disqualify here for the same reason. Same is true for the flip case.

These are normal hurdles for anything in politics that requires you as a citizen to sign something to be presented to the govt, no matter the state. Remember the saga of Kanye and how he had to submit 3x the threshold to even have a shot at being accepted? Ever taken a look at a ballot petition campaign? Hell, part of the reason the turnaround for forms you fill out in a govt office is so slow is because they need to confirm that it's actually you and not fraud.

[Oryxslayer]

[snip]

They should use the same standards they used for people trying to vote last November, otherwise it's not equal protection.  If they disqualified people's votes for the general on those grounds, then it's within reason they can disqualify here for the same reason. Same is true for the flip case.

Great, because we disqualify people from voting for all of these things!
 - Counties check signatures on all mail ballots.
 - When you register to vote, your info gets cross-checked with a DMV database to make sure you aren't lying about your state of residence, social, DOB, etc.
 - If you try to vote more than twice, like by voting VBM and in-person, the county government will give you a provisional ballot unless you surrender your VBM ballot for destruction, and won't count it unless they verify that you didn't vote two times.
 - We use people's address in the voter rolls to verify that they're voting in the precinct they're supposed to vote. We also use their address in the voter rolls to check signatures. Same standard applies to both.

Also throw in the fact that many striked names are just because of formatting. A standard petition form has X number of lines for people to sign their names. If someone makes a mistake on one line with the pen, they must strike out their name and use a second line. Throw in the mickey mouse's and those that unintentionally added others information (good intentions, but not allowed) and the total number of signatures is always artificially inflated. Until it comes time for the state to examine the signatures, they usually only count the number of submitted forms which may have plenty of these null signatures.

The online innitative forms that have temporarily been legalized because of COVID have an even harder time cause out-of-staters will naturally end up with the link or form circulated into their hands, and they will sign it as an expression of their belief. You get less null signatures - remember some people will always troll an online form - but a lot more unusable ones.

[Oryxslayer]

Would Faulconer have a better chance if he ran as an indy and/or for one of the lower statewide offices? What would be his ceiling there?

At this point California is so Titanium D that this election is unwinnable for any Republican. My guess is that, at best he manages to lose by high single digits if he is lucky.

I don't see him making it into the runoff if runs as Indy. Neither are some lower statewide offices more in reach than the governorship. Just not happening.

I stand by my prediction he'll finish 3rd in the jungle primary 4 gov after Newsom and some crazy GOPer. Potentially Cox again. Faulconer has no base other than a few "former Orange County Republicans" or Romney-Clinton voters. He's for sure not making much inroads with Dems as Newsom is, contrary to impression in this forum, still pretty popular. At the same time, he's too moderate for Trumpers, whom are still a few million in all of CA.

On the topic of goin indie, I would point, as always, to Poizner and how he had everything going for him and he still lost. You can always get elected as an indie locally, no matter the complexion of ones views, because the quality of ones work matters more. The moment you go for higher office though people care about who you align with.

The main result of Faulconer going indie would be the surrendering of the GOP label to some nutjob (I personally think one of the con artists who runs against the prominent congressional dems every year, since this would just be another con) who will get unite the Trump voters and GOP loyalists behind them. The only way Falconer makes it to round two, no matter his label, is if the GOP ensures nobody else from their camp enters the race. In a high profile CA Gubernatorial contest, that is impossible.

[Oryxslayer]

Only 20-25% of California Trump voters are needed to trigger a statewide recall. I'm a little concerned this will be the norm for every Democratic Governor going forward.

I have brought it up a few times before, but this recall effort seems to be on an inevitable trajectory towards Democrats using the super-majorities to reform the whole recall system...which in the long term seems harmful to CA Republicans given what Ling Ling Chiang has shown to be possible in OC. The Dems will use the legislature to propose amendments that significantly raise to the threshold for potential recalls, or just scrap them entirely. Then they run a campaign that frames this years efforts as another authoritarian trick of the GOP's extremist caucus, trying to undo the legitimate will of the voters.

[Oryxslayer]

Petition for title change to CA-GOV 2021 megathread

https://twitter.com/cmarinucci/status/1359554353388945409

Ehh, there's a bit of a weird thing going on. Because the campaign is removing all the junk signatures on their own , they have two numbers: the number of sigs they collected and the num they independently verified. This is why the signature verification rate has been unusually high right now, cause they have been removing all the obvious fakes/mistakes and the state only has to ensure its a real person.

Essentially we wait until the state verifies it, though they likely will hit it before the deadline in a few moths.

[Oryxslayer]

Petition for title change to CA-GOV 2021 megathread

https://twitter.com/cmarinucci/status/1359554353388945409

Ehh, there's a bit of a weird thing going on. Because the campaign is removing all the junk signatures on their own , they have two numbers: the number of sigs they collected and the num they independently verified. This is why the signature verification rate has been unusually high right now, cause they have been removing all the obvious fakes/mistakes and the state only has to ensure its a real person.

Essentially we wait until the state verifies it, though they likely will hit it before the deadline in a few moths.

Don't they only have until mid March?

Your probably right, I just googled the ballot petition deadlines and usually its June/July.

[Oryxslayer]

Pardon my ignorance, but how exactly does a California recall work?

From my understanding, if enough voter signatures are collected statewide, a "Yes" or "No" option is presented to voters? If the "Yes" side wins does that mean Democrats will have replace Newsom on the ballot for the next two rounds of special election voting?

If enough signatures are collected and approved by the state then a two-question vote is presented to the electorate. The first question is a majoritarian "should X be recalled?" which must win a majority of the vote. If "Yes" wins the first question than the second question "Who should replace X" is implemented. The second questions formatting has not changed since the governator in '03: everyone is on a giant ballot and the plurality winner is inaugurated. The incumbent cannot be an option on the second question.

Its essentially the reverse of the normal system, requiring a majority to be obtained first before looking at the blanked primary. Of course it is extremely unlikely right now the recall succeeds because the Democrats are (rightly) branding the first question a partisan one, and no replacement candidate with the potential to cut through the partisan opinions has expressed interest. This will likely lead to a rejection of question one by a similar degree to the presidential vote, which is why we got "No" winning in a poll of OC not that long ago.

[Oryxslayer]

Caitlyn Jenner may run for governor of California, according to new report

A report from Axios states that Jenner has been privately consulting with political advisors about being a candidate, making her incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom's biggest opponent yet, if the rumors are true.

lol

She’d probably be the least embarrassed/fascistic Republican the party can put forward

The problem with her is that being a transgender woman is a great way to alienate Republicans and being a Republican is a great way to alienate Democrats.

All I see is a fourth semi-serious GOP'er attempting to enter a field already too divided to allow the party to walk the narrow tightrope to victory.

[Oryxslayer]

I really dunno why the GOP is putting so much effort into this and why there are multiple candidates seeking a run in a Titanium blue state with a gov who has his party united behind him. Do they think it's still 2003 or what?

A state as big as California will naturally have more divisions, less communication, and offer a platform for those with ambition elsewhere. There is a reason why four GOP'ers are now gonna run, each offering something a little different.

There's also the thought that the GOP now understands the recall will fail spectacularly, so the clown car is showing up because the goal has now shifted from victory to secondary benefits.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm voting no on recall and I'm fully confident it will fail.

I can't wait for R's to go crazy when this obviously dumb idea that they've been working on for months fails

Months?  It's been over two years... They started working on this the moment Newsom became governor

The State R's have tried to recall the statewide Dems every time they can. The only reason they got the signatures this time is because more than the conservative hinterlands were angry, for a brief period of time, and Newsom was the convenient outlet for that anger.

[Oryxslayer]

Gotta make himself more hyper-masculine cause he's not gonna out-Trump Grenell or any other potential trump-admin insider.

[Oryxslayer]

/Cox & bear

CA GOP.... What happened to you?

Par for the course, honestly.

The CA GOP are such a directionless clown show. This is why I was never scared of a recall. Not with them being the alternative. I wouldn't be surprised if this recall effort ends up hastening their downfall more than if the recall never happened. Their looniness under the biggest spotlight yet.

And we haven't even gotten to the debates. Oh God the debates.

I honestly think the debates will help Newsom cause there will no doubt be two types: a Yes v No debate a la Brexit or the Scotland, and a successor debate. The successor debate will be a clown show...and who in the Yes camp is prominent or composed enough to go on the stage with Newsom? The separation harms the GOP.

[Oryxslayer]

/Cox & bear

CA GOP.... What happened to you?

Par for the course, honestly.

The CA GOP are such a directionless clown show. This is why I was never scared of a recall. Not with them being the alternative. I wouldn't be surprised if this recall effort ends up hastening their downfall more than if the recall never happened. Their looniness under the biggest spotlight yet.

And we haven't even gotten to the debates. Oh God the debates.

I honestly think the debates will help Newsom cause there will no doubt be two types: a Yes v No debate a la Brexit or the Scotland, and a successor debate. The successor debate will be a clown show...and who in the Yes camp is prominent or composed enough to go on the stage with Newsom? The separation harms the GOP.

I came across the 2003 replacement debate sans-Davis, but did he ever have a townhall or debate that year to defend himself?

I'd expect one this year to go down like the 2018 primary debates, with Newsom laughing as the GOP fight about who's the toughest anti-vaxxer

I don't think Davis ever did, but that was a reflection of polling and perceptions. If all the attention and Democratic energy focuses on the Yes v No question than that's going to get the press focus.

[Oryxslayer]

New UC Berkeley poll. April 29-May 5, 10,289 RV, MoE: 2%

First question
49% Remain in office
36% Recall
15% Undecided

Second question
22% John Cox
22% Kevin Faulconer
14% Doug Ose
6% Caitlyn Jenner

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-05-11/opposition-grows-gavin-newsom-recall-poll

Lol

As I noted a few weeks ago, Democratic Rep. Karen Bass said on ABC's This Week that Republicans weren't going to vote for Jenner because of her being transgender-which is what many have also said on here. And now, we have polling data revealing the truth of this. Jenner's attempts to move to the right and to cater to conservative Republicans by adopting the Party line on transgender rights and engaging in attacks against "socialism" and the like clearly aren't helping her.

Jenner finds herself in a similar position to that of former Senator Flake, despite them being entirely from different alignments. Her identity is too liberal for republicans, but her policies are way too conservative for Dem-adjacent. Which leaves people like me suspecting she is just a modern version of the 120-ish candidates from 2003 whose main goal was publicity and media attention.

[Oryxslayer]

lolwut

https://twitter.com/OANN/status/1392856219153354753

It's a Twitter poll, aka fake news. But it's the type of thing that echoes around that corner of the web.

[Oryxslayer]

When can be expect a date for the recall set? As far as I know, the lieutenant governor has to make that decision within a certain framework.

I think she could potentially make it today. Today is when the final total of accepted signatures is confirmed, after the month window for signatories to voluntarily withdrawal their signature, and the legislature has fast-tracked appropriations through the state budget process. However, it probably won't be precisely today, likely very soon though.

Apparently the Dems are thinking about a early September vote. While it would reduce turnout compared to November, it would better capitalize on any pandemic goodwill, while also giving less time for the election to radically change.

[Oryxslayer]

I still don't get what's the point to waste millions of dollars and call voters to the polls to recall a Democratic governor in a rocksolid blue state 14 months before the next regular election takes place anyway? Just because said governor could do more to tackle crisis like homelessness? Or is his crime to listen to science during a pandemic? Of course Newsom wasn't perfect, but no comparison to Florida man or Cuomo. And in a new situation like this, some errors inevitably happen.

Even in the extremely unlikely event the recall succeeds and a Republican replaces Newsom, he or she would face a state legislature with a Democratic supermajority and would stand zero chance to survive 2022.

His crime was making a big personal up at a bad time for the state's residents. That is all that is needed when the recall bar is low and there are more than enough committed partisans to always start a recall motion. Admittingly, its hard to get both of those things to coincide. The temporary nature of the issue that triggered all this though means that the recall motion continued on by inertia even though other events are now much more important. Unsuccessful recalls, like Walker's in Wisconsin, are usually doomed by how distant they are from the motivating crisis, and whether or not there were more issues that kept said issue or other executive faults in the news and minds of voters.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1417484207123615744?s=19

Issa goes nuclear on Cox, in support of fellow San Diego republican Faulconer.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1433109540115927046?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

How is that possible? No state in any election has higher turnout in a off year election vs a presidential election

It could be ballot cannibalization. 

Due to Delta surge, perhaps.

Or because CA mailed ballots to every registered voter.

[Oryxslayer]

How likely is it that the recall process gets changed if Newsom wins?

High. But any serious change will have to go before the voters as a constitutional amendment, so probably 2022 when the Dems can point to 2021 and say "that was stupid, lets tighten things so the recall can be used only in the most rational of situations."

[Oryxslayer]

The easiest reform would probably be to remove the replacement option and just have the Lt. Governor take over. This would eliminate partisan motivations for recall unless there was a partisan split between Governor and Lt. Governor (not very likely these days).

That works for Governor races, obviously the most prominent of the recalls, but CA recall law applies to the whole state. Plenty of examples of other offices getting a petition, for example the recent 2018 OC state senate recall, who lack a successor position.