Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/Perduesenate/status/1330330711346343936

She should bring her motorcycle

[Calthrina950]

Speaking of which, is there a breakdown of the Texas Senate race by congressional district?

I'd be curious to know if Cornyn carried the districts of Fletcher and Allred. Abbott won their districts in 2018 even as they were ousting Culberson and Sessions (who will be returning to the House from a different district in January).

[7,052,770]

Are you guys going to tie Paul Gosar to Kelly's future opponent too? Or maybe Chemtrail Kelli?

IA Dems must be feeling sad that they didn't tie Steve King to Joni Ernst. It would've been an easy pickup if they did, amirite?

Did Ernst campaign with Steve King? If she did, it was campaign malpractice for Greenfield not to tie her with him.

I could see MTG attacks on Perdue not really sticking, but Lqeffler has made her bed and must now face the consequences.

[Roll Roons]

Speaking of which, is there a breakdown of the Texas Senate race by congressional district?

I'd be curious to know if Cornyn carried the districts of Fletcher and Allred. Abbott won their districts in 2018 even as they were ousting Culberson and Sessions (who will be returning to the House from a different district in January).

Same. I assume he probably carried TX-24, along with TX-02, TX-03, TX-06, TX-10, TX-21, TX-22, TX-23 and TX-31, all of which went to Trump by 3 points or less.

[VAR]

Are you guys going to tie Paul Gosar to Kelly's future opponent too? Or maybe Chemtrail Kelli?

IA Dems must be feeling sad that they didn't tie Steve King to Joni Ernst. It would've been an easy pickup if they did, amirite?

Did Ernst campaign with Steve King? If she did, it was campaign malpractice for Greenfield not to tie her with him.

She did, actually, at one point.

[2016]

Those two Races will come down if the White Suburban Women who helped Jo Biden rack up decent margins in DeKalb, Cobb, Gwinnett, Rockdale, Newton, Henry and Clayton will support Warnock & Ossoff in the Runoffs.

My guess is that they won't.

[7,052,770]

Are you guys going to tie Paul Gosar to Kelly's future opponent too? Or maybe Chemtrail Kelli?

IA Dems must be feeling sad that they didn't tie Steve King to Joni Ernst. It would've been an easy pickup if they did, amirite?

Did Ernst campaign with Steve King? If she did, it was campaign malpractice for Greenfield not to tie her with him.

She did, actually, at one point.

Interesting. Marjorie Green, and by extension Qelly Loeffler, are much worse than Steve King. It's one thing to be racist, it's another to be a racist and also say that Jews Democrats drink the blood of children.

[Calthrina950]

Speaking of which, is there a breakdown of the Texas Senate race by congressional district?

I'd be curious to know if Cornyn carried the districts of Fletcher and Allred. Abbott won their districts in 2018 even as they were ousting Culberson and Sessions (who will be returning to the House from a different district in January).

Same. I assume he probably carried TX-24, along with TX-02, TX-03, TX-06, TX-10, TX-22, TX-23 and TX-31, all of which went to Trump by 3 points or less.

Cornyn certainly carried every district that Trump did-and in most of the ones that you list, he probably won by more than Trump, given that they are predominantly of a urban/suburban character. He may have done slightly worse than Trump in TX-23, given that he didn't exactly match Trump's numbers in the Rio Grande Valley. If Cornyn did not win TX-07 and TX-32, he probably kept them within 5%.

[7,052,770]

https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/1330575153428897797

Lqeffler spends 2020 absolutely debasing herself in a way that goes above and beyond what most Republicans are doing for Trump, and this is how the Trump campaign thanks her.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Odds of a possible big rw boycott of the run offs of Trump loses? 👀

Idk but we should start one. #BoycottTheRiggedElection. #BoycottForDougCollins.

Actually though, somebody should microtarget Collins voters with boycott advertising.

[coloradocowboi]

https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/1330575153428897797

Lqeffler spends 2020 absolutely debasing herself in a way that goes above and beyond what most Republicans are doing for Trump, and this is how the Trump campaign thanks her.

A Thanksgiving Miracle!

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/1330575153428897797

Lqeffler spends 2020 absolutely debasing herself in a way that goes above and beyond what most Republicans are doing for Trump, and this is how the Trump campaign thanks her.

[SCNCmod]

Article:  A bipartisan group of Georgia teens is trying to flip the Senate by enlisting thousands of students to vote in the January runoffs

Link: https://www.yahoo.com/news/bipartisan-group-georgia-teens-trying-153200649.html

In addition to registering young voters... hopefully, they are also juicing turnout among college students in GA- especially those who may not have voted in the general.

[lfromnj]

"bipartisan"

Trying to flip the senate

Lmao media 10/10.

[SCNCmod]

I love seeing the various #boycotGArunoff rumblings among some Trump diehards. It would be great if 3-4% of Trump voters in GA stayed home for the runoff!

On a similar note- Republican turnout in GA was 90% & Dem turnout was 70% in the general... this would seem to leave no room for error in the runoff.  This could be an encouraging sign for Dems, given the current Republican in-fighting in GA-

(& given the fact that AA turnout- which usually drops off in runoffs- is likely to be high given that Warnock has the chance to become the first AA Senator from GA).

[SCNCmod]

"bipartisan"

Trying to flip the senate

Lmao media 10/10.

I can see a fair amount of Republican College Students- preferring 33-year-old Ossoff and  Warnock ... over Loeffler (especially given the sort of racial focus from Loeffler... a tactic esp not tolerated by most college-age voters, whether Dem or Repub).

I haven't read the article yet- but I imagine there is a mention of the subject of Loeffler & race.


Article: A bipartisan group of Georgia teens is trying to flip the Senate by enlisting thousands of students to vote in the January runoffs

Link: https://www.yahoo.com/news/bipartisan-group-georgia-teens-trying-153200649.html

[SCNCmod]

Actually, there was no mention of Loeffler or race ... however, it seems one of the goals of the group (formed by 2 Biden supporters & 2 Trump supporters- to register young voters for the general election) was to elect more candidates under the age of 34 (which Ossoff fits, given that he is 33).

And they are targeting High School Seniors- not college students (which I mistakenly said above).

[SCNCmod]

The voter file has been updated with preliminary Georgia 2020 data (most of the third party services hustled to get Georgia done first in time for the runoffs).

It looks like Democratic turnout was 70% while Republican turnout was 90%. We had modeled for Democratic turnout to be 68% and Republican turnout to be 84%. If this same pattern happened nationwide, it seems to confirm the working theory that the polling misses where they occurred predominantly came from undershooting Republican turnout. The electorate was also far more partisan than we anticipated in even our highest partisanship models (i.e. independent/nonpartisan voters were a lower share of the electorate) which also probably helped Democrats in the polls.

Our final poll, which showed Biden winning the state by 3 points (everyone here knows that I always say margins are meaningless, but it's as specific as I'm allowed to get), would have shown a tie under the turnout model based on the actual figures.

What turnout model did yall use for your recent GA-senate-runoff poll? (and do you, personally, anticipate the runoff will likely have the same Dem/Repub turnout %'s)

[Pollster]

The voter file has been updated with preliminary Georgia 2020 data (most of the third party services hustled to get Georgia done first in time for the runoffs).

It looks like Democratic turnout was 70% while Republican turnout was 90%. We had modeled for Democratic turnout to be 68% and Republican turnout to be 84%. If this same pattern happened nationwide, it seems to confirm the working theory that the polling misses where they occurred predominantly came from undershooting Republican turnout. The electorate was also far more partisan than we anticipated in even our highest partisanship models (i.e. independent/nonpartisan voters were a lower share of the electorate) which also probably helped Democrats in the polls.

Our final poll, which showed Biden winning the state by 3 points (everyone here knows that I always say margins are meaningless, but it's as specific as I'm allowed to get), would have shown a tie under the turnout model based on the actual figures.

What turnout model did yall use for your recent GA-senate-runoff poll? (and do you, personally, anticipate the runoff will likely have the same Dem/Repub turnout %'s)

I'm not allowed to get that specific about our work, but I expect turnout percentages to drop precipitously in a non-regular general election, even if the overall Democrat to Republican ratio stays the same.

[SCNCmod]

The voter file has been updated with preliminary Georgia 2020 data (most of the third party services hustled to get Georgia done first in time for the runoffs).

It looks like Democratic turnout was 70% while Republican turnout was 90%. We had modeled for Democratic turnout to be 68% and Republican turnout to be 84%. If this same pattern happened nationwide, it seems to confirm the working theory that the polling misses where they occurred predominantly came from undershooting Republican turnout. The electorate was also far more partisan than we anticipated in even our highest partisanship models (i.e. independent/nonpartisan voters were a lower share of the electorate) which also probably helped Democrats in the polls.

Our final poll, which showed Biden winning the state by 3 points (everyone here knows that I always say margins are meaningless, but it's as specific as I'm allowed to get), would have shown a tie under the turnout model based on the actual figures.

What turnout model did yall use for your recent GA-senate-runoff poll? (and do you, personally, anticipate the runoff will likely have the same Dem/Repub turnout %'s)

I'm not allowed to get that specific about our work, but I expect turnout percentages to drop precipitously in a non-regular general election, even if the overall Democrat to Republican ratio stays the same.

Do you personally expect the ratio of Dem to Repub (from the General)  to stay the same in the runoff... if not, which party do you think will gain in that ratio?

[SCNCmod]

Looking at the crosstabs for the latest GA Senate poll ...

https://insideradvantage.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/INSIDERADVANTAGE_FOX5ATLANTA-Senate-Poll.pdf

... I find it pretty surprising that, according to the poll, 13% of AA's are going to vote for Loeffler & Perdue over Warnock & Ossoff?  (Warnock had a slightly better % than Ossoff- but both rounded to 13%)

[forza nocta]

Looking at the crosstabs for the latest GA Senate poll ...

https://insideradvantage.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/INSIDERADVANTAGE_FOX5ATLANTA-Senate-Poll.pdf

... I find it pretty surprising that, according to the poll, 13% of AA's are going to vote for Loeffler & Perdue over Warnock & Ossoff?  (Warnock had a slightly better % than Ossoff- but both rounded to 13%)

Their last GA presidential poll had Trump getting 15% of the black vote. So you can junk those crosstabs.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fulton County to offer early voting for the runoff at State Farm Arena (which was used in the general election) and Mercedes-Benz Stadium (new for the runoff):

Through a partnership between Fulton County, the Hawks and AMB Sports and Entertainment (parent company of the Falcons), State Farm Arena will be available for early voting Dec. 14-19 (with the NBA season beginning Dec. 22), and Mercedes-Benz Stadium will be available Dec. 22-30 (the Falcons have a home game Dec. 20 and an away game Dec. 27).

https://www.ajc.com/sports/atlanta-hawks/state-farm-arena-mercedes-benz-stadium-to-offer-early-voting-for-runoff-election/ODWJY3276JCJHAM7M2HV3WDM7Y/

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I know it's a bit off-topic, but nonetheless funny; why has nobody broached the matter of the Republican candidates' names yet?
Did you know that one's name is French for "lost", and the other's name is derived from the German term for someone who prefers a certain coital position? 😂

[2016]

The Democrats won't win these Seats - Period!

Biden has realized this already by thus far nominating "Safe Picks" to his Cabinet who can sail through the Senate without too much Republican Opposition. That tells me that he doesn't believe that they will win both Seats.