Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[lfromnj]

Democrats need to go all in here

Gotta identify 2,000,000 or more registered voters likely to vote for Ossoff/Warnock and make sure they get to the polls.

And for the love of god never let Qelly Loeffler live down her Q connections. She made her bed and must now lie in it.

anti -Qanon does not seem like a good thing to run on, Joe Rae Perkins is actually running ahead of Trump in metro Portland .This would just let Loeffler pivot to other stuff. Just attack her for the early stuff about the coronavirus stock stuff.

[lfromnj]

Democrats need to go all in here

Gotta identify 2,000,000 or more registered voters likely to vote for Ossoff/Warnock and make sure they get to the polls.

And for the love of god never let Qelly Loeffler live down her Q connections. She made her bed and must now lie in it.

anti -Qanon does not seem like a good thing to run on, Joe Rae Perkins is actually running ahead of Trump in metro Portland .This would just let Loeffler pivot to other stuff. Just attack her for the early stuff about the coronavirus stock stuff.

Oh Lauren witzke is only like 2 points behind Trump and thats with full qanon not just a very loose connection.

[lfromnj]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1974_and_1975_United_States_Senate_elections_in_New_Hampshire

I wonder if somehow we face higher turnout than atleast 2018 general .

[lfromnj]

Gonna be honest. Don't care.

I don’t think you or any other red avatar on this forum is the intended target audience here.

Tbf the ad didn't even get ray Goldfield so its probably not that effective, at least at that aspect, might juice up the evangelicals though.

[lfromnj]

If both Ossoff and Warnock wins, who would be the Senior senator?

Ossoff-based on last name alphabet.

[lfromnj]

One reason I think Republicans should win is the polling is looking pretty good and Perdue outperformed his polls, I went back and looked at the polls on 538 for the senate forecast for the Georgia race and this is what they were:

Emerson: Ossoff +1
Data for Progress: Ossoff +5
Monmouth: Ossoff +2
PPP: Ossoff +1
YouGov: Perdue +1
NYT/Sienna: Tie
Landmark Communications: Perdue +2


Perdue won by 1.7% so he did better then the polls on average indicated, in the rcp average Ossoff was up 0.7%, so the rcp average had a 2.4% bias in favour of the dems.

The polls were off a bit bc of a GOP turnout surge. The same can't be expected this time around without Trump on the ballot.

How are you still so confident after being wrong?

Being wrong about what exactly? We're talking about Georgia, where the presidential polls were very accurate and the Senate polls only slightly off (the special moreso b/c they didn't include Deborah Jackson apparently)

Q has Biden getting 36% of Whites in GA and 89% of Blacks. On a good night for Biden, I don't see how that's impossible. If anything, he likely hits 90%+ with Blacks, and if Whites are really turning against Trump, Biden getting to 36% is not that out of the realm of possibility. I don't think Biden will actually win by 7, but Q-pac actually seems to be picking up on what's happening in GA compared to the polls that still have Trump +1-3.

Georgia polls were accurate albiet not yours.

[lfromnj]

"bipartisan"

Trying to flip the senate

Lmao media 10/10.

[lfromnj]

Well those two races are safe R now.

No, Perdue's race is Safe R because Atlanta suburbanites LOVE corruption, racist dog whistles, and a senator who votes with his party like 100% of the time. But Loeffler's race is a toss-up at best for Republicans because she's a shrill extremist who campaigned with Greene.

#sexism #analysis

No you see harry keeping calling qoeffler is gonna totally work rather than you know attacking the multi millionaire on insider trading.

[lfromnj]

Well those two races are safe R now.

No, Perdue's race is Safe R because Atlanta suburbanites LOVE corruption, racist dog whistles, and a senator who votes with his party like 100% of the time. But Loeffler's race is a toss-up at best for Republicans because she's a shrill extremist who campaigned with Greene.

#sexism #analysis

No you see harry keeping calling qoeffler is gonna totally work rather than you know attacking the multi millionaire on insider trading.

FWIW I've seen more ads about insider trading than anything else. Every time I try to watch a YouTube video I'm treated to "David Perdue was EXONERATED" before I can skip and it feels like the only things on TV are ads about Loeffler's trading.

Yeah I believe the attacks on Loeffler about insider trading are a bit shaky considering the amount of money that was traded relative to her total worth was relatively low but its a quite wise course of attack especially as I doubt explaining to the average voter you only made trades of 5 million from your net worth of 500 million is a great way to connect. Now Perdue/Loeffler have to waste time going on the defensive.

[lfromnj]

Generally in special elections when Trump got directly/indirectly involved campaigning with  the candidates, they lost. Just ask Sacconne, Moore and Bevin

Your comparisons are absurd.

You can't really put Bevin/Moore and Perdue / Loeffler in the same bag

But Georgia and Alabama aren't either.

[lfromnj]

I don't have the will to want to watch this debate but Loeffler's performance sounds loeffable.

I mean I literally heard basically ever GOP senate debate performance was bad this year on this forum from liberals who watched them.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1336101371456741376

imo wasserman is a republican hack imo i'm tired of the pundits underestimating dems tbh

Not that I personally think GOP turnout will be low (though I'm obviously hoping) but saying this won't happen because the other claims were wrong is ironic considering Raffensperger said during an interview that there were about 20k or so Republicans who voted by mail during the primary, and did not vote at all in the GE.

20k can mean anything

They could have died or moved away
 

[lfromnj]

I'll send the first person to recommend this post $10 if both Ossoff and Warnock win. Remember, I pay.

edit: TarHeelDem it is!

#canconfirm.

[lfromnj]

NBC/CNN have no college degree now at 63%, college degree at 37%. It was 64% a little bit ago.

Don't Democrats do better with voters without a college degree in this state due to the race divide?

They don't do better than voters with a degree although there is less of a gap.

[lfromnj]

Wasserman has been a D hack this cycle when it comes to predictions although he is still one of the best when it comes to analyzing returns.

[lfromnj]

Chatham County (Savannah) is only at 1% on CNN.  Is Savannah the largest city in Georgia outside the Atlanta area?

Augusta, Columbus, and Macon are all larger.

Ok, thanks!

Those 3 are consolidated city counties. Chatham is the largest county.

[lfromnj]

Not sure this has been discussed yet, but according to Wikipedia, Warnock will become junior senator because of his last name and Ossoff preceding him alphabetically.

An interesting tiebreaker would be rather than use last name, maybe they could use margin of victory as the penultimate tiebreaker?