Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[AGA]

Why is no one polling these races?

[It’s so Joever]

Why is no one polling these races?

They don’t want even more egg on their face.

[AGA]

Why is no one polling these races?

They don’t want even more egg on their face.

Georgia polls were pretty good.

[Bootes Void]

Why is no one polling these races?

It would be dead heat either way. Everyone thinks it will be close

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1332135585268584450?s=20

Could be a problem for democrats

This means nothing. My entire immediate (BLACK) family voted by mail in the general and will be voting early in person for the runoffs bc of the time of the year of this race and concerns about mail being delivered on time (Xmas). I hope folks aren't already handwringing.

TBF, your family is probably more engaged than the average voter.

[SCNCmod]

Generally in special elections when Trump got directly/indirectly involved campaigning with  the candidates, they lost. Just ask Sacconne, Moore and Bevin

Before I read this... I was thinking- Trump campaigning in Georgia sounds bad for Dems, BUT it may end up motivating Dems (more than motivating Trump fans to turn out for an election that doesn't include Trump on the ballot).

Which could explain why Trump getting involved in special elections, doesn't seem to always help the republican candidate.  (In general, Dems need to be motivated to GOTV.. more so than Republicans.  So in a Special Election, to the extent that Trump motivates both parties... Dems benefit more than Republicans).

[SCNCmod]

Dan Bishop disagrees.

Dan Bishop was always going to win... b/c he secured the Lumbee Indian vote in Robeson County, thanks to State Senator Britt (a republican from Robeson County... who is popular with Lumbee Indians).  Lumbee Indians are mostly Dems... but willing to vote Republican (If the candidate is more attuned to Lumbee's achieving Federal Tribe Recognition).  Lumbee Indians mostly live in Robeson County & make up a large % of the total population (Robeson County makes up around 1/4th of the District).  

Britt & Bishop are good friends and sit beside each other in the State Senate Chamber (have a connecting Desk/ Seating... I assume due to their "B" names).  So Bishop was on top of issues that affect Lumbee Indians (since the State senator that represents them is Britt).  Also- there were many Tv Ads with Bishop & Britt standing beside each other, with Britt saying to vote for Bishop, etc).

So, Trump had no effect on the Special Election (& FOX news had already motivated any potential Republican voters who were going to turn out due to Trump campaigning in the District (as these voters are heavy Foxnews viewers)... By vilifying the Special Election Dem candidate on a daily basis- which they will no doubt do in Ga also).  

This is another reason (Foxnews) that could explain why Trump Campaigning in District, may help Dems more in Special Elections... B/c Fox already villifies the Dem Special Election candidate enough to turnout hardcore Trump voters (whereas Dem voters never see Fox's Candidate Bashing... But Dems do see when Trump comes into the district & bashes the Dem candidate... b/c all networks cover it).

[SCNCmod]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1332135585268584450?s=20

Could be a problem for democrats

This means nothing. My entire immediate (BLACK) family voted by mail in the general and will be voting early in person for the runoffs bc of the time of the year of this race and concerns about mail being delivered on time (Xmas). I hope folks aren't already handwringing.

I'm not sure what part of Georgia you are from...

1) But do you think Black turnout in the special (as a % of total votes cast) will be higher than the general election?

2) And do you think your answer is true for both Atlanta & Rural Ga?

also... 3) In general, what do you think motivates the average (non-Atlas), black voter... Voting against Trump, or voting for Warnock (Ga's 1st black senator).

[jimrtex]

I’m sorry to ask a question that’s probably been addressed multiple times already, but I only found this out today....

Why are the runoffs AFTER the new Congress is seated? Who came up with that?

This is a Jim Crow era rule to prevent candidates from winning with Black support, basically. The runoffs used to be in December, but I think a lawsuit forced Georgia to move the federal runoffs to January.

Yeah, I know all about the racial motivations behind runoffs, but a runoff in Jan. after the new Congress is seated? So the seats will actually be vacant for a couple days? Perdue and Loeffler won’t be incumbents on Election Day?

Georgia could avoid this if they did like Louisiana does and lets overseas voters vote a contingent ballot for the runoff. The runoff in LA-5 is next Saturday (December 5).

[7,052,770]

I’m sorry to ask a question that’s probably been addressed multiple times already, but I only found this out today....

Why are the runoffs AFTER the new Congress is seated? Who came up with that?

This is a Jim Crow era rule to prevent candidates from winning with Black support, basically. The runoffs used to be in December, but I think a lawsuit forced Georgia to move the federal runoffs to January.

Yeah, I know all about the racial motivations behind runoffs, but a runoff in Jan. after the new Congress is seated? So the seats will actually be vacant for a couple days? Perdue and Loeffler won’t be incumbents on Election Day?

Georgia could avoid this if they did like Louisiana does and lets overseas voters vote a contingent ballot for the runoff. The runoff in LA-5 is next Saturday (December 5).

Or they could do RCV and have this solved on Election Night.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/ReverendWarnock/status/1331326729739243527

New Internet Ad Warnock tweeted out.

I wonder if he was this cheerful when he was driving over his wife's foot.

Presumably not as cheerful as you are everytime you get the chance to ignore the fact that your God Emperor raped Ivana.

You have strange fantasies.

[President Johnson]

Donald Trump always accused Obama of politicizing the Justice Department. The guy always accuses others what he's guilty of.

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1332595839747952642

[Frenchrepublican]

Generally in special elections when Trump got directly/indirectly involved campaigning with  the candidates, they lost. Just ask Sacconne, Moore and Bevin

Your comparisons are absurd.

You can't really put Bevin/Moore and Perdue / Loeffler in the same bag

But Georgia and Alabama aren't either.

Sure but what the other poster implied is that Moore lost because of Trump support, it's no sense.

I dont wanna say those candidates lost because of trump support, they had their own share of problems. However when Trump endorsed those candidates, you could say the opposition was more motivated to oppose him stronger

In the case of Moore/Bevin the democratic base was already motivated anyway so without Trump's backing Moore and Bevin would likely have done even worse.

Now you can probably make the argument that Trump campaigning in LA helped Edwards as it motivated blacks to turn out for him, after all the electorate in november was more dem friendly than during the jungle primary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's over GA goes D, people jumped again, to conclusions that GA was safe R

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1332135585268584450?s=20

Could be a problem for democrats

This means nothing. My entire immediate (BLACK) family voted by mail in the general and will be voting early in person for the runoffs bc of the time of the year of this race and concerns about mail being delivered on time (Xmas). I hope folks aren't already handwringing.

I'm not sure what part of Georgia you are from...

1) But do you think Black turnout in the special (as a % of total votes cast) will be higher than the general election?

2) And do you think your answer is true for both Atlanta & Rural Ga?

also... 3) In general, what do you think motivates the average (non-Atlas), black voter... Voting against Trump, or voting for Warnock (Ga's 1st black senator).

I do the think the Black share of the electorate will be larger because Latino and AAPI participation will shrink as well as extremely low info whites.

I think Black turnout will remain strong in Metro Atlanta vs rural GA

I really don’t feel like Warnock being the 1st Black Senator is a big deal.... I felt it when Abrams was running but that was for an executive post and she would have been the first Black woman Governor in this country. Period. I definitely feel like people are motivated by punishing Trumpism/GOP vs the candidates.

[SCNCmod]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1332135585268584450?s=20

Could be a problem for democrats

This means nothing. My entire immediate (BLACK) family voted by mail in the general and will be voting early in person for the runoffs bc of the time of the year of this race and concerns about mail being delivered on time (Xmas). I hope folks aren't already handwringing.

I'm not sure what part of Georgia you are from...

1) But do you think Black turnout in the special (as a % of total votes cast) will be higher than the general election?

2) And do you think your answer is true for both Atlanta & Rural Ga?

also... 3) In general, what do you think motivates the average (non-Atlas), black voter... Voting against Trump, or voting for Warnock (Ga's 1st black senator).

I do the think the Black share of the electorate will be larger because Latino and AAPI participation will shrink as well as extremely low info whites.

I think Black turnout will remain strong in Metro Atlanta vs rural GA

I really don’t feel like Warnock being the 1st Black Senator is a big deal.... I felt it when Abrams was running but that was for an executive post and she would have been the first Black woman Governor in this country. Period. I definitely feel like people are motivated by punishing Trumpism/GOP vs the candidates.

That's interesting to hear.  I would have guessed that Warnock on the ticket (and to some extent Harris being the Senate tie-breaker & therefore a stronger VP) would have been a bigger turnout motivator for the runoff than would anti-trump.

If you expect AA turnout in Rural GA to be lower than Atlanta... I  hope the campaigns are working overtime to reach and turnout the rural Ga Dem vote.

I also hope the fact that Ossoff is a millennial himself, will help turnout the youth vote (which has always dropped off in past runoffs).

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I made this

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/KLoeffler/status/1332795148736942080

[Roll Roons]

Uhhh, I feel like this could end very badly for Ossoff and Warnock:

https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/1332745159960883200

[VAR]

Well, Ossoff retweeted his tweet so I guess he's fine with his endorsement.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/ossoff/status/1331702290512814080

[Gracile]

Uhhh, I feel like this could end badly for Ossoff and Warnock:

https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/1332745159960883200

You're vastly overstating how much this would make an impact, especially in a state as polarized as Georgia. Sanders has also tweeted support for other Democratic candidates before.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/KLoeffler/status/1332795148736942080

lol

[UWS]

Well, Ossoff retweeted his tweet so I guess he's fine with his endorsement.

Sanders would definitely have lost Georgia if he was the nominee and probably the entire election as well.

And Sanders' endorsement to Ossoff and Warnock will likely reinforce the warning that if the Dems take the Senate, Bernie Sanders would be in line to become Chairman of the Senate Committee on Budget, which means a vote for Ossoff and Warnock is a vote for a socialist takeover of the budget, for much more deficit, for out of control spending, of trillions of dollars of new taxes.

[KaiserDave]

Well, Ossoff retweeted his tweet so I guess he's fine with his endorsement.

Sanders would definitely have lost Georgia if he was the nominee and probably the entire election as well.

And Sanders' endorsement to Ossoff and Warnock will likely reinforce the warning that if the Dems take the Senate, Bernie Sanders would be in line to become Chairman of the Senate Committee on Budget, which means a vote for Ossoff and Warnock is a vote for a socialist takeover of the budget, for much more deficit, for out of control spending, of trillions of dollars of new taxes.

Wonderful!