2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[lfromnj]

Cook Political moved IL-13 to the Toss Up column from Lean R (though they didn't announce it):

https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

Cook also moved MI-SEN from Likely to Lean D.

It's wild that they had it at Likely D to start off with but then again knowing Cook it shouldn't have been that surprising.

I know right, Gary Peters won by 14 points in a mega R wave . Looks like Safe to me.

[IceSpear]

Cook Political moved IL-13 to the Toss Up column from Lean R (though they didn't announce it):

https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

Cook also moved MI-SEN from Likely to Lean D.

It's wild that they had it at Likely D to start off with but then again knowing Cook it shouldn't have been that surprising.

I know right, Gary Peters won by 14 points in a mega R wave . Looks like Safe to me.

More importantly, he has the Incumbency Advantage™

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

FL-27 is already represented by one of the worst people in Congress who isn't a Republican, a true monster and likely sociopath of Trump levels. Well another notable stand out Horrible Person even beyond Republican levels could be her challenger.
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1190291742538387456?s=19

....if I was unfortunate enough to live in this sh!thole district I'd file and run myself in the D primary if no one else does.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

FL-27 is already represented by one of the worst people in Congress who isn't a Republican, a true monster and likely sociopath of Trump levels. Well another notable stand out Horrible Person even beyond Republican levels could be her challenger.
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1190291742538387456?s=19

....if I was unfortunate enough to live in this sh!thole district I'd file and run myself in the D primary if no one else does.

Jesus! Not sure if I'm more taken aback by your hyperbole or how I thought you were talking about Rep. Wasserman-Schultz.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

FL-27 is already represented by one of the worst people in Congress who isn't a Republican, a true monster and likely sociopath of Trump levels. Well another notable stand out Horrible Person even beyond Republican levels could be her challenger.

....if I was unfortunate enough to live in this sh!thole district I'd file and run myself in the D primary if no one else does.

Why don't people like Shalala? Not that I like her, I've just never gotten any reason for the hate

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

FL-27 is already represented by one of the worst people in Congress who isn't a Republican, a true monster and likely sociopath of Trump levels. Well another notable stand out Horrible Person even beyond Republican levels could be her challenger.

....if I was unfortunate enough to live in this sh!thole district I'd file and run myself in the D primary if no one else does.

Why don't people like Shalala? Not that I like her, I've just never gotten any reason for the hate

When she was University of Miami President, she was cartoonish evil. She's most well known for her union busting and opposition to a janitor strike for a meager wage increase, leading to one of the university chaplains labeling her "an enemy of the working poor." She also sold land containing an endangered ecosystem to build a Wal-Mart. She's a truly terrible, greedy sociopathic person.

[Calthrina950]

FL-27 is already represented by one of the worst people in Congress who isn't a Republican, a true monster and likely sociopath of Trump levels. Well another notable stand out Horrible Person even beyond Republican levels could be her challenger.

....if I was unfortunate enough to live in this sh!thole district I'd file and run myself in the D primary if no one else does.

Why don't people like Shalala? Not that I like her, I've just never gotten any reason for the hate

It's a meme on this forum, a running joke that many posters like to indulge in here.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

I didn't vote for Shalala in the 2018 primary, and I'm hoping someone legitimate runs against her in 2020. That's really unlikely since this district is super complacent, but by the looks of the Republican primary Donna should have this in the bag.

[Skunk]

FL-27 is already represented by one of the worst people in Congress who isn't a Republican, a true monster and likely sociopath of Trump levels. Well another notable stand out Horrible Person even beyond Republican levels could be her challenger.
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1190291742538387456?s=19

....if I was unfortunate enough to live in this sh!thole district I'd file and run myself in the D primary if no one else does.

Donna delusion syndrome is real.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

FL-27 is already represented by one of the worst people in Congress who isn't a Republican, a true monster and likely sociopath of Trump levels. Well another notable stand out Horrible Person even beyond Republican levels could be her challenger.
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1190291742538387456?s=19
....if I was unfortunate enough to live in this sh!thole district I'd file and run myself in the D primary if no one else does.

Donna delusion syndrome is real.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Miami_Justice_for_Janitors_campaign

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

FL-27 is already represented by one of the worst people in Congress who isn't a Republican, a true monster and likely sociopath of Trump levels. Well another notable stand out Horrible Person even beyond Republican levels could be her challenger.

....if I was unfortunate enough to live in this sh!thole district I'd file and run myself in the D primary if no one else does.

Why don't people like Shalala? Not that I like her, I've just never gotten any reason for the hate

When she was University of Miami President, she was cartoonish evil. She's most well known for her union busting and opposition to a janitor strike for a meager wage increase, leading to one of the university chaplains labeling her "an enemy of the working poor." She also sold land containing an endangered ecosystem to build a Wal-Mart. She's a truly terrible, greedy sociopathic person.

1. Love the leapfrogging over my take

2. As far as Democratic reps are concerned, I'd still put Wasserman-Schultz above her. Maybe even Sheila Jackson-Lee

[Lisa's voting Biden]

TX-24 Dem Primary Poll (Bold PAC)

Candace Valenzuela - 14%
Kim Olson - 12%
Crystal Fletcher - 10%
Jan McDowell - 9% (2018 Candidate)

https://thehill.com/latino/467717-hispanic-caucus-all-in-with-latina-in-crowded-texas-primary

[Gracile]

Big news out of TX-24 - EMILY's List has decided to endorse Candace Valenzuela.

https://twitter.com/emilyslist/status/1192429658811305987

[Young Conservative]

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2019/11/06/former-nfl-player-burgess/

NFL Legend Burgess Owens is running to beat Rep. Ben McAdams in the Salt Lake Burbs

[Storr]

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2019/11/06/former-nfl-player-burgess/

NFL Legend Burgess Owens is running to beat Rep. Ben McAdams in the Salt Lake Burbs

"He is also the author of the books “Liberalism or How to Turn Good Men into Whiners, Weenies and Wimps" and “Why I Stand: From Freedom to the Killing Fields of Socialism” and is a frequent Fox News commentator."

Oh, okay....

[Politician]

RRH has new Senate ratings: Cory Gardner now an underdog

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/11/09/rrh-elections-november-2019-senate-rankings/

RRH also thinks Rhode Island is the safest Senate seat in the country. Trigger warning for Atlas

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-democrats/expanding-the-squad-us-liberals-challenge-moderate-democrats-to-move-party-left-idUSKBN1X00ZY

But the fact that the Texas congressional primary will be held on the same day as the state’s presidential primary could double turnout and boost Cisneros’ chances, said Mark P. Jones, a political science professor at Rice University in Houston.

“If she is able to make the case that she is the congressional equivalent of Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and Beto O’Rourke, and Henry Cuellar is not, then Cuellar could find himself in some trouble,” Jones said.

How on earth is this guy a political science professor btw? Clinton won every county in the district by large margins and won Texas Hispanics over Bernie 71-29, but yes, obviously being associated with Bernie is just the key to victory in this #risingProgressive #Sanders2020, NeverBiden district.

The daughter of Mexican-American immigrants, Cisneros said that residents in the largely Hispanic district, which is centered in Laredo and stretches from the San Antonio suburbs to the U.S.-Mexico border, are warming to liberal policies. Democrat Hillary Clinton won the district in the 2016 presidential race by 20 percentage points.

Acting like Clinton's margin of victory in a 79% Hispanic, South Texas district proves whether the district is liberal or conservative shows absolutely nothing except that whoever wrote this article has no idea what they're talking about. I can't wait for Cueller to get re-elected by a 40+ point margin.

[lfromnj]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-democrats/expanding-the-squad-us-liberals-challenge-moderate-democrats-to-move-party-left-idUSKBN1X00ZY

But the fact that the Texas congressional primary will be held on the same day as the state’s presidential primary could double turnout and boost Cisneros’ chances, said Mark P. Jones, a political science professor at Rice University in Houston.

“If she is able to make the case that she is the congressional equivalent of Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and Beto O’Rourke, and Henry Cuellar is not, then Cuellar could find himself in some trouble,” Jones said.

How on earth is this guy a political science professor btw? Clinton won every county in the district by large margins and won Texas Hispanics over Bernie 71-29, but yes, obviously being associated with Bernie is just the key to victory in this #risingProgressive #Sanders2020, NeverBiden district.

The daughter of Mexican-American immigrants, Cisneros said that residents in the largely Hispanic district, which is centered in Laredo and stretches from the San Antonio suburbs to the U.S.-Mexico border, are warming to liberal policies. Democrat Hillary Clinton won the district in the 2016 presidential race by 20 percentage points.

Acting like Clinton's margin of victory in a 79% Hispanic, South Texas district proves whether the district is liberal or conservative shows absolutely nothing except that whoever wrote this article has no idea what they're talking about. I can't wait for Cueller to get re-elected by a 40+ point margin.

If Sanders made it to Super Tuesday I wouldn't be shocked if Sanders did better than 2016 in this district by raw percentage aka he gets more than 29%.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-democrats/expanding-the-squad-us-liberals-challenge-moderate-democrats-to-move-party-left-idUSKBN1X00ZY

But the fact that the Texas congressional primary will be held on the same day as the state’s presidential primary could double turnout and boost Cisneros’ chances, said Mark P. Jones, a political science professor at Rice University in Houston.

“If she is able to make the case that she is the congressional equivalent of Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and Beto O’Rourke, and Henry Cuellar is not, then Cuellar could find himself in some trouble,” Jones said.

How on earth is this guy a political science professor btw? Clinton won every county in the district by large margins and won Texas Hispanics over Bernie 71-29, but yes, obviously being associated with Bernie is just the key to victory in this #risingProgressive #Sanders2020, NeverBiden district.

The daughter of Mexican-American immigrants, Cisneros said that residents in the largely Hispanic district, which is centered in Laredo and stretches from the San Antonio suburbs to the U.S.-Mexico border, are warming to liberal policies. Democrat Hillary Clinton won the district in the 2016 presidential race by 20 percentage points.

Acting like Clinton's margin of victory in a 79% Hispanic, South Texas district proves whether the district is liberal or conservative shows absolutely nothing except that whoever wrote this article has no idea what they're talking about. I can't wait for Cueller to get re-elected by a 40+ point margin.

If Sanders made it to Super Tuesday I wouldn't be shocked if Sanders did better than 2016 in this district by raw percentage aka he gets more than 29%.

I honestly think Sanders will stay in right up until around the end. Even if he's doing awfully, he'd probably push it through anyway, as he did in 2016 (albeit with more support).

[Badger]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-democrats/expanding-the-squad-us-liberals-challenge-moderate-democrats-to-move-party-left-idUSKBN1X00ZY

But the fact that the Texas congressional primary will be held on the same day as the state’s presidential primary could double turnout and boost Cisneros’ chances, said Mark P. Jones, a political science professor at Rice University in Houston.

“If she is able to make the case that she is the congressional equivalent of Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and Beto O’Rourke, and Henry Cuellar is not, then Cuellar could find himself in some trouble,” Jones said.

How on earth is this guy a political science professor btw? Clinton won every county in the district by large margins and won Texas Hispanics over Bernie 71-29, but yes, obviously being associated with Bernie is just the key to victory in this #risingProgressive #Sanders2020, NeverBiden district.

The daughter of Mexican-American immigrants, Cisneros said that residents in the largely Hispanic district, which is centered in Laredo and stretches from the San Antonio suburbs to the U.S.-Mexico border, are warming to liberal policies. Democrat Hillary Clinton won the district in the 2016 presidential race by 20 percentage points.

Acting like Clinton's margin of victory in a 79% Hispanic, South Texas district proves whether the district is liberal or conservative shows absolutely nothing except that whoever wrote this article has no idea what they're talking about. I can't wait for Cueller to get re-elected by a 40+ point margin.

If Sanders made it to Super Tuesday I wouldn't be shocked if Sanders did better than 2016 in this district by raw percentage aka he gets more than 29%.

If Biden still isn't in, I suppose it's possible. Who's going to appeal to Hispanic voters? Warren? Buttigieg?

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1193904711583313920?s=20

Surprisingly democrats didn’t field any candidate in AL-5th. Even if it’s not a competitive district, Huntsville has a relatively large community of white liberals

[Gracile]

The DCCC released a poll one week ago that asked about Trump's job approval in a number of battleground districts:

https://2vmhfw1isbe32j3tgn3epw3x-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/One-Year-Out.pdf

[Landslide Lyndon]

Damn! Utahns really, really, really dislike Trump.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

The DCCC released a poll one week ago that asked about Trump's job approval in a number of battleground districts:

https://2vmhfw1isbe32j3tgn3epw3x-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/One-Year-Out.pdf

> NY-11 48-48

> OK-5 49-49

This is exactly the kind of quality polling I expect from Democratic internal polls

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The DCCC released a poll one week ago that asked about Trump's job approval in a number of battleground districts:

https://2vmhfw1isbe32j3tgn3epw3x-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/One-Year-Out.pdf

> NY-11 48-48

> OK-5 49-49

This is exactly the kind of quality polling I expect from Democratic internal polls

I mean he's like -13 avg around the country, so those look right. Doesn't mean he is gonna lose the seats, but the approval and disapproval look about right.