This Wretched Hive Of Scum And Villainy

[Torrain]

Henry Smith (Crawley, majority of 8,300) is retiring, saying it's "time for a new generation".

The seat only had a 2.4k majority in 2017, and seems to be one of those bellwethers that was Tory pre-1997, Labour 1997-2010, and back to Tory since Cameron.

Smith had a wild 2022. He sternly defended Johnson until Sunak resigned. He then switched to calling for Johnson to go. He endorsed Braverman, then Truss... And then became one of the first MPs to publicly call for Truss to resign, once Braverman resigned.

Other notable moments include being endorsed by Queen's Brian May in 2015, (for his opposition to the badger cull), and demanding Karl Marx's grave marker be removed.

[Torrain]

One other interesting tid-bit on the electoral front - a couple of journalists have poked around the news that marginal seat MPs are increasingly looking towards safe seats, and it appears that there's been a formal process set up for those who are looking to participate in the "chicken run". Initially, this seems to have been set up by CCHQ to assist MPs who have been "displaced" by boundary reviews, but there's a sense that some MPs are exploiting the system in an attempt to survive.

We already knew Nicola Richardson (West Bromwich East) and Stuart Anderson (Wolverhampton South West) were looking to take that route, but Keiran Mullan (Crewe and Nantwich) sounds like he'll flee to Chester South and Eddisbury. Scott Benton (Blackpool South) is being very cagey about whether he'll stay in Blackpool or try elsewhere (*insert joke about what a great loss to politics Benton will be here*). And Eddie Hughes looks likely to leave Walsall to try for Chris Pincher's seat of Tamworth - assuming there isn't a by-election in the next 18 months...

The nomination in Sajid Javid's safe Bromsgrove seat seems like it'll be a brawl between several incumbents. And a three-way fight for a safe Hampshire seat between Suella Braverman, Paul Holmes and Flick Drummond seems inevitable.

Apparently the whole thing is being run by a panel dominated by members of the 1922 Committee like Sir Graham Brady and Will Wragg, which given their role in Sunak's ascension, probably isn't going down well with the right of the party...

Obviously, this does come up each time the boundaries are redrawn, but there are definitely shades of 1997, when MPs like David Amess, Brian Mawhinney (who was party chairman at the time!) and Nicholas Soames who headed for safer ground, anticipating heavy swings in their seats.

For more, Sky and the Spectator have good pieces.

[YL]

One other interesting tid-bit on the electoral front - a couple of journalists have poked around the news that marginal seat MPs are increasingly looking towards safe seats, and it appears that there's been a formal process set up for those who are looking to participate in the "chicken run". Initially, this seems to have been set up by CCHQ to assist MPs who have been "displaced" by boundary reviews, but there's a sense that some MPs are exploiting the system in an attempt to survive.

We already knew Nicola Richardson (West Bromwich East) and Stuart Anderson (Wolverhampton South West) were looking to take that route, but Keiran Mullan (Crewe and Nantwich) sounds like he'll flee to Chester South and Eddisbury. Scott Benton (Blackpool South) is being very cagey about whether he'll stay in Blackpool or try elsewhere (*insert joke about what a great loss to politics Benton will be here*). And Eddie Hughes looks likely to leave Walsall to try for Chris Pincher's seat of Tamworth - assuming there isn't a by-election in the next 18 months...

Some of those seats are quite marginal, but only Eddie Hughes can really claim to have been "displaced" by the boundary review.

The nomination in Sajid Javid's safe Bromsgrove seat seems like it'll be a brawl between several incumbents. And a three-way fight for a safe Hampshire seat between Suella Braverman, Paul Holmes and Flick Drummond seems inevitable.

I think there are two safe Hampshire seats between those three.  The obvious thing to do would be for Holmes to take the revised Eastleigh, Braverman to take Hamble Valley and Drummond to take Fareham & Waterlooville.  But Eastleigh will be a Lib Dem target again and Holmes apparently wants Hamble Valley, and the view seems to be that he's likely to get it, leaving the other two fighting over Fareham & Waterlooville.

[TheTide]

I'm sure we're being too cynical. They just want a change of scenery.

[Torrain]

Damien Green re-adopted for the revised Ashford seat - after he failed to be selected for the new Weald of Kent seat.

[Cassius]

One other interesting tid-bit on the electoral front - a couple of journalists have poked around the news that marginal seat MPs are increasingly looking towards safe seats, and it appears that there's been a formal process set up for those who are looking to participate in the "chicken run". Initially, this seems to have been set up by CCHQ to assist MPs who have been "displaced" by boundary reviews, but there's a sense that some MPs are exploiting the system in an attempt to survive.

We already knew Nicola Richardson (West Bromwich East) and Stuart Anderson (Wolverhampton South West) were looking to take that route, but Keiran Mullan (Crewe and Nantwich) sounds like he'll flee to Chester South and Eddisbury. Scott Benton (Blackpool South) is being very cagey about whether he'll stay in Blackpool or try elsewhere (*insert joke about what a great loss to politics Benton will be here*). And Eddie Hughes looks likely to leave Walsall to try for Chris Pincher's seat of Tamworth - assuming there isn't a by-election in the next 18 months...

Some of those seats are quite marginal, but only Eddie Hughes can really claim to have been "displaced" by the boundary review.

The nomination in Sajid Javid's safe Bromsgrove seat seems like it'll be a brawl between several incumbents. And a three-way fight for a safe Hampshire seat between Suella Braverman, Paul Holmes and Flick Drummond seems inevitable.

I think there are two safe Hampshire seats between those three.  The obvious thing to do would be for Holmes to take the revised Eastleigh, Braverman to take Hamble Valley and Drummond to take Fareham & Waterlooville.  But Eastleigh will be a Lib Dem target again and Holmes apparently wants Hamble Valley, and the view seems to be that he's likely to get it, leaving the other two fighting over Fareham & Waterlooville.

Fareham & Waterlooville would be a peak Canadian riding name if you cut out the “&” and made it Fareham-Waterlooville.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

One other interesting tid-bit on the electoral front - a couple of journalists have poked around the news that marginal seat MPs are increasingly looking towards safe seats, and it appears that there's been a formal process set up for those who are looking to participate in the "chicken run". Initially, this seems to have been set up by CCHQ to assist MPs who have been "displaced" by boundary reviews, but there's a sense that some MPs are exploiting the system in an attempt to survive.

We already knew Nicola Richardson (West Bromwich East) and Stuart Anderson (Wolverhampton South West) were looking to take that route, but Keiran Mullan (Crewe and Nantwich) sounds like he'll flee to Chester South and Eddisbury. Scott Benton (Blackpool South) is being very cagey about whether he'll stay in Blackpool or try elsewhere (*insert joke about what a great loss to politics Benton will be here*). And Eddie Hughes looks likely to leave Walsall to try for Chris Pincher's seat of Tamworth - assuming there isn't a by-election in the next 18 months...

Some of those seats are quite marginal, but only Eddie Hughes can really claim to have been "displaced" by the boundary review.

The nomination in Sajid Javid's safe Bromsgrove seat seems like it'll be a brawl between several incumbents. And a three-way fight for a safe Hampshire seat between Suella Braverman, Paul Holmes and Flick Drummond seems inevitable.

I think there are two safe Hampshire seats between those three.  The obvious thing to do would be for Holmes to take the revised Eastleigh, Braverman to take Hamble Valley and Drummond to take Fareham & Waterlooville.  But Eastleigh will be a Lib Dem target again and Holmes apparently wants Hamble Valley, and the view seems to be that he's likely to get it, leaving the other two fighting over Fareham & Waterlooville.

Fareham & Waterlooville would be a peak Canadian riding name if you cut out the “&” and made it Fareham-Waterlooville.

Fareham—Waterlooville—Solent to South Downs Country.

[Estrella]

One other interesting tid-bit on the electoral front - a couple of journalists have poked around the news that marginal seat MPs are increasingly looking towards safe seats, and it appears that there's been a formal process set up for those who are looking to participate in the "chicken run". Initially, this seems to have been set up by CCHQ to assist MPs who have been "displaced" by boundary reviews, but there's a sense that some MPs are exploiting the system in an attempt to survive.

We already knew Nicola Richardson (West Bromwich East) and Stuart Anderson (Wolverhampton South West) were looking to take that route, but Keiran Mullan (Crewe and Nantwich) sounds like he'll flee to Chester South and Eddisbury. Scott Benton (Blackpool South) is being very cagey about whether he'll stay in Blackpool or try elsewhere (*insert joke about what a great loss to politics Benton will be here*). And Eddie Hughes looks likely to leave Walsall to try for Chris Pincher's seat of Tamworth - assuming there isn't a by-election in the next 18 months...

Some of those seats are quite marginal, but only Eddie Hughes can really claim to have been "displaced" by the boundary review.

The nomination in Sajid Javid's safe Bromsgrove seat seems like it'll be a brawl between several incumbents. And a three-way fight for a safe Hampshire seat between Suella Braverman, Paul Holmes and Flick Drummond seems inevitable.

I think there are two safe Hampshire seats between those three.  The obvious thing to do would be for Holmes to take the revised Eastleigh, Braverman to take Hamble Valley and Drummond to take Fareham & Waterlooville.  But Eastleigh will be a Lib Dem target again and Holmes apparently wants Hamble Valley, and the view seems to be that he's likely to get it, leaving the other two fighting over Fareham & Waterlooville.

Fareham & Waterlooville would be a peak Canadian riding name if you cut out the “&” and made it Fareham-Waterlooville.

Fareham—Waterlooville—Solent to South Downs Country.

Saint-Hamme-lès-Farré—Sainte-Ville-sur-l'Ouatèrre-de-Lou, if you're in Quebec.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

One other interesting tid-bit on the electoral front - a couple of journalists have poked around the news that marginal seat MPs are increasingly looking towards safe seats, and it appears that there's been a formal process set up for those who are looking to participate in the "chicken run". Initially, this seems to have been set up by CCHQ to assist MPs who have been "displaced" by boundary reviews, but there's a sense that some MPs are exploiting the system in an attempt to survive.

We already knew Nicola Richardson (West Bromwich East) and Stuart Anderson (Wolverhampton South West) were looking to take that route, but Keiran Mullan (Crewe and Nantwich) sounds like he'll flee to Chester South and Eddisbury. Scott Benton (Blackpool South) is being very cagey about whether he'll stay in Blackpool or try elsewhere (*insert joke about what a great loss to politics Benton will be here*). And Eddie Hughes looks likely to leave Walsall to try for Chris Pincher's seat of Tamworth - assuming there isn't a by-election in the next 18 months...

Some of those seats are quite marginal, but only Eddie Hughes can really claim to have been "displaced" by the boundary review.

The nomination in Sajid Javid's safe Bromsgrove seat seems like it'll be a brawl between several incumbents. And a three-way fight for a safe Hampshire seat between Suella Braverman, Paul Holmes and Flick Drummond seems inevitable.

I think there are two safe Hampshire seats between those three.  The obvious thing to do would be for Holmes to take the revised Eastleigh, Braverman to take Hamble Valley and Drummond to take Fareham & Waterlooville.  But Eastleigh will be a Lib Dem target again and Holmes apparently wants Hamble Valley, and the view seems to be that he's likely to get it, leaving the other two fighting over Fareham & Waterlooville.

Fareham & Waterlooville would be a peak Canadian riding name if you cut out the “&” and made it Fareham-Waterlooville.

Fareham—Waterlooville—Solent to South Downs Country.

Saint-Hamme-lès-Farré—Sainte-Ville-sur-l'Ouatèrre-de-Lou, if you're in Quebec.

Meanwhile in Australia federally it’d be named after some random dead woman from the other side of Hampshire who’s completely uncontroversial and has an unusual enough surname that it isn’t used already. Or a state electorate would be called Portchester because double barrelled electorates are anathema.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1643188015915847682

[Torrain]

Scott Benton has gone full Neil Hamilton/Owen Paterson:

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1643655696255262720

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The nominative determinism of the name Bent(on) is a little on the nose.

[Torrain]

The nominative determinism of the name Bent(on) is a little on the nose.

It’s right out of In The Thick of It:


Let’s tread carefully though - for clarity, Benton is gay, and I’m not sure about Oz, but that’s one of the other derogatory slang uses for that particular word over here.

[Torrain]

Throwback to 2021. Consider it an origin story:https://mobile.twitter.com/BetGameCouncil/status/1413837910487543815?t=A17TCeNj7...

[Torrain]

The MP for Henley is retiring - notable, because this is, of course, Boris Johnson’s old pre-mayoral constituency. Johnson has bought a mansion in the area, and been looking at local private schools for his kids…

https://mobile.twitter.com/OxfordClarion/status/1645778409971384321

[TheTide]

Fair to say that he hasn't made quite the impact that his two immediate predecessors did.

[Torrain]

Fair to say that he hasn't made quite the impact that his two immediate predecessors did.

True. But *quite* an act to follow - same for whoever next ends up nominated for Richmond...

[Torrain]

Sir Robert Goodwill (not a PG Wodehouse character, I checked) is standing down, as MP for Scarborough and Whitby:
https://twitter.com/TheScarboroNews/status/1646544793588121600

Seat was Labour from 1997-2005. Majority of 10k in 2019, but only 4k in 2017, so may be another marginal without an incumbent to watch.

Goodwill, although Chairman of the Environment, Food, Rural Affairs Committee, is pretty low-key. He’s gotten into a couple of scuffles due to his personal interests as a landlord seemingly driving his voting approach, but the most notable thing about him seems to be his ability to pick a losing candidate in Conservative internal elections (backing Liam Fox in 2005 and 2016 for leader, and Jeremy Hunt in 2019), including his feud against Graham Brady’s leadership of the 1922 committee.

[Blair]

It appears some of the MPs we most looked forward to losing (see Dick Holden') have managed to apply to get on the weird Tory list that lets you claim you're displaced- no doubt a few will be wanting to land somewhere a lot safer than their current marginal seats.

I might be wrong but I can't remember any Labour MPs using the 2010 boundary change to jump ship; there's something rather undignified about a junior minister or random backbencher moving across the country for a safer seat.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well if the next GE is indeed anything like 1997 some of them will lose their new "safer" seats as well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I might be wrong but I can't remember any Labour MPs using the 2010 boundary change to jump ship; there's something rather undignified about a junior minister or random backbencher moving across the country for a safer seat.

The culture in Labour for a while has been that if the Boundary Commission screws you over, you're expected to suck it up. This is a relatively new development in historical terms and reflects various things that happened in the 70s and 80s.

[Blair]

I might be wrong but I can't remember any Labour MPs using the 2010 boundary change to jump ship; there's something rather undignified about a junior minister or random backbencher moving across the country for a safer seat.

The culture in Labour for a while has been that if the Boundary Commission screws you over, you're expected to suck it up. This is a relatively new development in historical terms and reflects various things that happened in the 70s and 80s.

Oh yes it was only after this I remembered Benn irrc got screwed over in '83 and choose to fight his altered seat rather than the safe seat he was offered in Scotland. An act of courage it must be said.

[YL]

I might be wrong but I can't remember any Labour MPs using the 2010 boundary change to jump ship; there's something rather undignified about a junior minister or random backbencher moving across the country for a safer seat.

The culture in Labour for a while has been that if the Boundary Commission screws you over, you're expected to suck it up. This is a relatively new development in historical terms and reflects various things that happened in the 70s and 80s.

Oh yes it was only after this I remembered Benn irrc got screwed over in '83 and choose to fight his altered seat rather than the safe seat he was offered in Scotland. An act of courage it must be said.

This is a myth: his old seat (Bristol South East) had been quite close in 1979 and would surely have been doomed.  I think the new East was actually a bit better for Labour than the old South East had been; after all it included Easton and Lawrence Hill.

Several of the "displaced" Tories are not in fact particularly affected by the current boundary proposals.  One person who it has been suggested may be on the list actually has a constituency which has no changes proposed at all.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, Benn tried first for the nomination in Bristol South because he knew he was in trouble and it was a better bet.

[CumbrianLefty]

Which led to a spectacularly bitter battle with incumbent Michael Cox, of course.

Benn's supporters narrowly failed then, but took their revenge in the following parliament.