PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I never understand these people about the difference between Jesus and Moses they are pretty much the same Prophets anyways if you go by Buddhism that everyone were prophets and portals to Heaven and the Universe can be a force of nature not a person

I know the difference now since being endocrine into Buddhism as a teen

Moses and Jesus are both Yahweh the Son's of GOD that performance of miracles

[wbrocks67]

Not sure what Mastriano is speaking of here, in an interview with Fox, Kilmeade says "you just told me that there is a poll out of Pittsburgh that has you in the lead..."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRWMrY9CSqw

[wbrocks67]

Still also waiting for Q2 fundraising for both Shapiro and Mastriano, anyone know why it's on a different schedule than the Senate/House?

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1551709231488929793?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1551709231488929793?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

They're really going off the rails, aren't they?

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1551709231488929793?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

They're really going off their rails, aren't they?

Just proves at this point that the whole "Mastriano will moderate" schtick ain't happening.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1551709231488929793?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

They're really going off their rails, aren't they?

Just proves at this point that the whole "Mastriano will moderate" schtick ain't happening.

It went really well with Trump too IIRC.

[wbrocks67]

Glad to see Shapiro reaching out to the Latino community.

https://twitter.com/manuel_bonder/status/1552305840144670720

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1551709231488929793?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

The state senator so out there she's being challenged basically from a more moderate angle by another state senator who previously said vaccine mandates were "communist" and also one of my least favorite members of the fandom: https://twitter.com/AZKellyT/status/1405342148707319810?s=20&t=T_blBF-XlJ6YI...

[Senator Spark]

Mastriano continues to shoot himself in the foot with these controversial statements about Israel now. I don't think he even cracks 45% at the moment.

[wbrocks67]

Mastriano's campaign is also double and tripling down on the anti-semitic sh**t. Truly a campaign in disarray at this point. (made even worse when you realize his opponent is Jewish)

[Duke of York]

Mastriano continues to shoot himself in the foot with these controversial statements about Israel now. I don't think he even cracks 45% at the moment.

Hopefully he sinks even lower. The man is evil and a bigot.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Mastriano continues to shoot himself in the foot with these controversial statements about Israel now. I don't think he even cracks 45% at the moment.

Hopefully he sinks even lower. The man is evil and a bigot.

He is basically a microcosm of the GOP this year, and why I am dreading the midterms like a convict on death row dreads their execution if it ends up being as good of a year for them as it could be.

There used to be a time where I would just simply be disappointed if the GOP won but still be able to not be mortified by it. Now though it's just so existentially harrowing when they, especially when resembling Mastriano, win elections anywhere.

[wbrocks67]

LOL. sure, jan

https://twitter.com/dougmastriano/status/1552764754262986753

[sting in the rafters]

Yeah guys we should all have 100% faith in polls rn totally

[GeorgiaModerate]

Yeah guys we should all have 100% faith in polls rn totally

Nobody should have faith in polls totally.  There is some inaccuracy inherent in any sampling operation.  But polls (if well-designed and conducted by reputable organizations) are a useful tool. 

I always wonder why people who think polls are worthless hang out on the polling forums.

[wbrocks67]

538's official polling average for PA-GOV is now up!

Current average is Shapiro +8.2

Shapiro (D) 49.8%
Mastriano (R) 41.5%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/2022/pennsylvania/

[sting in the rafters]

Yeah guys we should all have 100% faith in polls rn totally

Nobody should have faith in polls totally.  There is some inaccuracy inherent in any sampling operation.  But polls (if well-designed and conducted by reputable organizations) are a useful tool. 

I always wonder why people who think polls are worthless hang out on the polling forums.

Are they worthless, or rather have we seen enough times they under-estimate conservative turnout in Pennsyltucky/the pastorals of the Lower Susquehanna to where know a poll in PA showing ~48-40 or ~50-41 for the D is really dead-even?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah guys we should all have 100% faith in polls rn totally

Nobody should have faith in polls totally.  There is some inaccuracy inherent in any sampling operation.  But polls (if well-designed and conducted by reputable organizations) are a useful tool. 

I always wonder why people who think polls are worthless hang out on the polling forums.

Are they worthless, or rather have we seen enough times they under-estimate conservative turnout in Pennsyltucky/the pastorals of the Lower Susquehanna to where know a poll in PA showing ~48-40 or ~50-41 for the D is really dead-even?

Other than 2016 what are the examples?

In 2020 per the polling database here the average was Biden+5. Actual result was Biden+1. So that's a D error but just 4 points, not 8-9.

2018 had Wolf+15... actual result was Wolf+17, actually underestimated. And for Senate it had Casey+13. Actual result....Casey+13.

[sting in the rafters]

Other than 2016 what are the examples?

In 2020 per the polling database here the average was Biden+5. Actual result was Biden+1. So that's a D error but just 4 points, not 8-9.

2018 had Wolf+15... actual result was Wolf+17, actually underestimated. And for Senate it had Casey+13. Actual result....Casey+13.

Yeah, in November..... it's the end of July. Casey was seeing high-teens into Labor Day. Biden was at +6-7 after the convention bumps. Wolf I'll concede the polling correctly found there was little enthusiasm, however it's hard to gauge how much of that was the incumbent advantage in the race the GOP didn't contest during a Trump midterm.

I just want you to ask yourself, is the Pennsylvanian electorate this fall going to be plurality Biden voters or plurality Trump voters? I feel pretty confident in stating it'll be plurality Trump voters. Now, Shapiro has proven appeal w/the bronzy NEPA dinocrats who only registered to vote in the primary due to his stellar handling of the opioid crisis which has ravaged many families including my own, however  it's just hard to ignore the fundamentals of inflation, the incoming recession, and the GOP's continued whittling of the party registration edge. Furthermore, it's hard to look at the results in South Jersey/Appalachian Virginia and not imagine similar nuclear turnout for the GOP.

Now what COULD screw Mast is his plan for education. https://www.youtube.com/shorts/HGmCpNlnJPo?feature=share]The guy is talking about religious school choice and slashing spending like we're Alabama or something.[/url] We are not even five years removed from the long-awaited pension reform which shifted the burden onto new hires and purposefully carved out the State Employees and Public School Employee unfunded liabilities because the municipal AFT chapters would redacted the entire State Capitol Complex if they ever tried. Furthermore, if there is any way to fire up the vote in Philly, it is the re-instigate the beef between the Catholic schools and public schools. I know which one wins that battle.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yeah guys we should all have 100% faith in polls rn totally

Nobody should have faith in polls totally.  There is some inaccuracy inherent in any sampling operation.  But polls (if well-designed and conducted by reputable organizations) are a useful tool. 

I always wonder why people who think polls are worthless hang out on the polling forums.

Are they worthless, or rather have we seen enough times they under-estimate conservative turnout in Pennsyltucky/the pastorals of the Lower Susquehanna to where know a poll in PA showing ~48-40 or ~50-41 for the D is really dead-even?

Other than 2016 what are the examples?

In 2020 per the polling database here the average was Biden+5. Actual result was Biden+1. So that's a D error but just 4 points, not 8-9.

2018 had Wolf+15... actual result was Wolf+17, actually underestimated. And for Senate it had Casey+13. Actual result....Casey+13.

While I am having my reservations about polling, I think the real question of this election when it's all settled as it relates to polling is whether 2016 and 2020 were Trump being on the ballot effects that skewed poll expectations or not. 2018 was obviously more accurate (though still not perfect *cough8 Florida *cough*) and that probably spoiled us for 2020.

If polls are relatively inaccurate this year, then the phenomenon is likely polls not being able to reflect turnout. If they are more or less accurate than the Trump effect theory may remain.

Though I would add, based on the most recent elections we've had, that polls in the Virginia race in 2021 were accurate-Mcauliffe probably would have won if the election took place any other time than those last two or three weeks when Youngkin's momentum was very clearly reflected in most polls by that point. New Jersey too at least got Murphy's percentage result right, the polls just did not account for undecideds heavily moving to Ciatarelli. So we're in a pretty murky situation here.

I'm not sure what it will be, but I refuse to be disappointed and as such am managing my expectations for the worst, whether that is actually in our future or not.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Polls can be off but usually you don't see a statewide race where the Dem has a double digit lead and is above 50% lose.

[wbrocks67]

Oddly have still not seen any Q2 fundraising reports for Shapiro or Mastriano.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Interesting that all PA's Republican delegation except Fritzpatrick have endorsed Mastriano. Obviously, none of them are in immediate danger in the GE but still interesting and I wonder if Fritzpatrick will just sit an endorsement out. I expect the whole Dem delegation to endorse Shapiro if they haven't already, and probably enthusiastically, especially since I expect Shapiro to win all their districts except possibly PA-07 and PA-08 (though if either Cartwright and especially Wild want to hold, they'll need a strong top of the ticket performance).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Cartwright is actually a great example of another point in regards to Shapiro's strength that I think doesn't get discussed enough: lots of ancestrally D type areas still are willing to vote D downballot. The reason it doesn't really get discussed is because a trite meme brigade here love to strawman and yammer about it and any mention of it gets drowned out or retorted with sarcastic strawman remarks about beating Mitch McConnell and/or Rand Paul but examples of it are abound: In 2018 for example Evers did great in a lot of Obama/Trump areas and in fact these gave him his win since he actually underran Biden and even Hillary in a lot of urban and suburban areas, Keith Ellison of all people did strong there and Pennsylvania itself had Wolf and Shapiro himself winning a bunch of these places. (So did Casey but he's kind of a special case arguably due to his family popularity, plus he probably gets a home boost in NE Pennsylvania since it's his home area as well.)

In regards to Cartwright, he's not a Blue Dog (in fact he actually primaried one from the left), yet he still outruns the top of the ballot by double digits, and yes you can say that his luck will eventually run out and that 2022 is probably the year he finally goes down (and FYI I agree with this), but it's kind of weird to argue that Shapiro has no chance of winning over some people who haven't voted D for President in six years but regardless voted for Cartwright, often voted for Democrats for local offices and state legislature, voted for Wolf and even voted for Shapiro himself two years earlier (he won by about 4 points beating Biden's performance by about three, but this was especially pronounced in the NE, he even narrowly carried Luzerne County!) are all impossible for Shapiro to win against an underfunded extremist.