PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So what's the 411 on this Mastriano guy anyways? Can someone give me a highlight (or maybe lowlight I should say) reel of what makes him so unelectable?

He was Trump's point man in Pennsylvania for the "stop the steal" garbage.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Mastriano wins the general, would he actually have the authority to deny Biden Pennsylvania's electoral votes?

The Pennsylvania Supreme Court will still be at least 4D-3R so he can try but wouldn't be successful.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Just bet against Mastriano on PredictIt although what's in probably isn't indicative.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think the geographic polarization just shows why Mastriano ain't winning the general election. Even registered Republicans in the urban and suburban areas can't stand him.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

When are Atlas posters going to realize “election denialism” is a mainstream view?

Amongst swing voters?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I feel like people should look into the Northampton County Executive race from last fall. Reminder that this is a critical swing county located in this very state.

Republican candidate Steve Lynch was a Stop the Steal believer who was at the rally on January 6 and wanted to send armed men to intimidate school boards. Pretty similar to Mastriano.

The incumbent Democrat, Lamont McClure, was reelected by over 12 points in the same county that Biden carried by less than 1. On the same night that Terry McAuliffe and Phil Murphy underperformed Biden's 2020 performance in their states by double digits.

I normally wouldn't read too much into something like this, but again, this is one of the swingiest counties in the exact same state.

Lynch also ran a fairly absurd campaign. Mastriano could do the same, but Democrats automatically assuming he will are wishcasting.

Uh, that seems like a fair assumption after his acceptance speech.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I feel like people should look into the Northampton County Executive race from last fall. Reminder that this is a critical swing county located in this very state.

Republican candidate Steve Lynch was a Stop the Steal believer who was at the rally on January 6 and wanted to send armed men to intimidate school boards. Pretty similar to Mastriano.

The incumbent Democrat, Lamont McClure, was reelected by over 12 points in the same county that Biden carried by less than 1. On the same night that Terry McAuliffe and Phil Murphy underperformed Biden's 2020 performance in their states by double digits.

I normally wouldn't read too much into something like this, but again, this is one of the swingiest counties in the exact same state.

Lynch also ran a fairly absurd campaign. Mastriano could do the same, but Democrats automatically assuming he will are wishcasting.

Uh, that seems like a fair assumption after his acceptance speech.

This. I feel like I'm reliving CNN election night from last week where someone suggested that Mastriano may "moderate" his campaign and then they played his election night speech and it was everything you'd expect from the Mastriano we'd known and you just wonder how people can be this dense.

I'm reminded of the people who kept predicting that Trump would "moderate" and become less unhinged and spend less time on Twitter after:

-Once the primaries seriously started.
-Once the primary elections started voting.
-Once he secured the nomination.
-Once he officially became the nominee after the convention.
-Once the general election debates started.
-Once he won the election.
-Once he took office.
-Once his Cabinet was approved and the transition was complete.
-Once the midterms were close.
-Once the Democrats took the House.
-Once his re-election campaign heated up.
-The general election had finished
Etc...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1538890560328679426

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The reason I get from the thread is that the usual GOP funders like certain "establishment" and corporate PACs aren't giving a dime to Mastriano.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I've noticed that Shapiro is still up with positive personal ads, and the DGA is up with an anti-Mastriano abortion spot.

That's the smart move at this point. No need for Shapiro to go negative right now. Define himself positively and let Mastriano's insanity speak for itself.

Based on the polls I'm seeing I disagree. He needs to make it clear this guy is a lunatic, the voters don't seem to know that yet

The DGA is doing that though and Shapiro has plenty of time. Also remember that he has tons of money and Mastriano doesn't. If he goes on the offensive Mastriano won't be able to respond adequately.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah guys we should all have 100% faith in polls rn totally

Nobody should have faith in polls totally.  There is some inaccuracy inherent in any sampling operation.  But polls (if well-designed and conducted by reputable organizations) are a useful tool. 

I always wonder why people who think polls are worthless hang out on the polling forums.

Are they worthless, or rather have we seen enough times they under-estimate conservative turnout in Pennsyltucky/the pastorals of the Lower Susquehanna to where know a poll in PA showing ~48-40 or ~50-41 for the D is really dead-even?

Other than 2016 what are the examples?

In 2020 per the polling database here the average was Biden+5. Actual result was Biden+1. So that's a D error but just 4 points, not 8-9.

2018 had Wolf+15... actual result was Wolf+17, actually underestimated. And for Senate it had Casey+13. Actual result....Casey+13.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Cartwright is actually a great example of another point in regards to Shapiro's strength that I think doesn't get discussed enough: lots of ancestrally D type areas still are willing to vote D downballot. The reason it doesn't really get discussed is because a trite meme brigade here love to strawman and yammer about it and any mention of it gets drowned out or retorted with sarcastic strawman remarks about beating Mitch McConnell and/or Rand Paul but examples of it are abound: In 2018 for example Evers did great in a lot of Obama/Trump areas and in fact these gave him his win since he actually underran Biden and even Hillary in a lot of urban and suburban areas, Keith Ellison of all people did strong there and Pennsylvania itself had Wolf and Shapiro himself winning a bunch of these places. (So did Casey but he's kind of a special case arguably due to his family popularity, plus he probably gets a home boost in NE Pennsylvania since it's his home area as well.)

In regards to Cartwright, he's not a Blue Dog (in fact he actually primaried one from the left), yet he still outruns the top of the ballot by double digits, and yes you can say that his luck will eventually run out and that 2022 is probably the year he finally goes down (and FYI I agree with this), but it's kind of weird to argue that Shapiro has no chance of winning over some people who haven't voted D for President in six years but regardless voted for Cartwright, often voted for Democrats for local offices and state legislature, voted for Wolf and even voted for Shapiro himself two years earlier (he won by about 4 points beating Biden's performance by about three, but this was especially pronounced in the NE, he even narrowly carried Luzerne County!) are all impossible for Shapiro to win against an underfunded extremist.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Anyone else annoyed by the barrage of anti-Mastriano ads on youtube? I don't watch anything political but every other ad is a anti-Mastriano ad and it is starting to get very annoying.

This makes me want to get a Pennsylvania VPN so I can see them! FYI it's basically the same thing with anti-Jensen ads here.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hey guys remember candidate quality doesn't matter at all. This race is definitely at least Lean Mastriano. Shapiro can't buy his way out of the coming red wave.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hey guys remember candidate quality doesn't matter at all. This race is definitely at least Lean Mastriano. Shapiro can't buy his way out of the coming red wave.

Lean is very generous, don't you know that once Mastriano starts focusing on kitchen table issues and gets his ads running, Shapiro's polling lead will fall from 10 to 6, which roughly unskewed is about Mastriano +5

With what money is he going to run ads?

His entire campaign so far of going on right-wing podcasts and begging for money will eventually provide a windfall.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/JoePostingg/status/1568955106468528130?t=KxdLfc7_TXjHESO8IH-...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't know if it's actually the worst campaign ad ever considering the competition....but it seems like it's just a compilation of the sort of campaigning stock footage that real political ads are cut from with the soundtrack literally being YouTube's generic copyright background track.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama has apparently cut a TV ad for Shapiro.

Probably really for Fetterman. I think the goal here is to motivate black voters for Shapiro who'll then also vote Fetterman as well even if not motivated by him.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Virgin ElectionsGuy vs. the Chad Josh Shapiro!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Shapiro already showing he's going to be a Chad Governor.

https://twitter.com/jjabbott/status/1591062849954381824?t=UXjqzI9wFPkVYalZvKmwkg...