PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs have a slight advantage

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Shapiro is gonna win, once Fetterman wins the Nomination. It would be a major upset if Shapiro and Fetterman lost

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs don't realize Trump is not a likeable candidate among females, minorities and liberal whites due to his Insurrection, he needs to stay away, but he won't, he is polarizing and doesn't get a new vote from any independent

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What's the outlook for the state legislature? As far as I have been following PA politics, Wolf actually had an ambitious agenda when he became gov, but was stonewalled by a heavily gerrymandered GOP legislature. Dems won the PV by 10 pts. in 2018 and still were unable to gain control of either chamber. How is that expected to turn out if we assume Shapiro defeats Barletta in a relatively close race?

Btw, I agree Barlatta would be a good candidate from the Dem perspective, but I wouldn't write him off. I expect Shapiro to win by no more than 3-5 pts.

Wolf won by 17, if Fetterman is our candidate, we should win by more in a blue wave 54/46, just like Casey helped Wolf win by 17

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As long as Fetterman is our Nominee for SEN, D's aren't gonna lose the Gov or Senate race

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We still have 500 days til the Election try 2022 that's why Beto and McCounghey haven't announced, they're waiting til beginning of next yr

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, but all of them are running for Senate, if they can't win the Senate race by Jan before the SEN primary, there will be a calling for Lamb to run for Gov, but we haven't heard from Shapiro

Either Lamb or Shapiro will be our Nominee for Gov, PA and WI are tipping pt states, are must wins

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am confident once Lamb loses the primary or Keyanetta, they will run for Gov, there are all running against Juggernaut Fetterman whom will easily carry Pittsburgh while everyone splits the Philly vote

It's gonna be Lamb or Shapiro running for Gov

Stop worrying

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are gonna win PA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You're not serious with QAnon, if QAnon was so great why was Trump a 46.9% Prez when he lost the PVI both to Hillary and Biden, exactly what Rs are gonna get in PA Gov against Shapiro, Qanon is a Cult group

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt R. Shapiro isn't being tested enough, and he will lose by 2-3 points like Fetterman.

Biden improved on Hillary performance in Western PA and Fetterman appeals to Pittsburgh, Shapiro and Fetterman will both win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt R. Shapiro isn't being tested enough, and he will lose by 2-3 points like Fetterman.

I agree. Really the election is really Doug Mastriano’s to lose at this point. A scary thing is that Doug Mastriano is a potential running mate for Donald Trump in 2024 and would be even worse than Donald Trump is he is ever elected President.

. NO, Snowlabrador and Milineienial Moderate predicted that in the Runoffs, GA wouldn't elect 2, D's they were wrong

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's going to be tough to hold onto the Governor's seat in Pennsylvania. Democrats need to expand the electorate by registering more non white voters to overcome the strength of the white vote for the GOP. Luckily the people behind the New Georgia Project are working with Democrats in Pennsylvania to create a New Pennsylvania Project which aims to do exactly what I described. And Biden is prioritizing the state by visiting it repeatedly ever since he was sworn in which is good for us too. Still it'll be close.

WI and PA desperately need Biden infrastructure deal and Pittsburgh and Milwaukee bridges and roads need an upgrade, you really think Fetterman and Shapiro and Biden doing better than Hillary are gonna lose Western PA like Hillary and Kate McGinty would have, NOT

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Getting pretty annoyed with Shapiro lol

It's a 278 Neutral Environment, Shapiro will be the next Gov but it's not D favored, at least there is no blue wave in site with Biden Approvals

In other ye D's would keep the H under Biden 51/46% Approvals but due to Redistricting and Gerrymandering, D's will lose the H without a wave

Like 2018 if Biden had 51/46% Approvals we would keep H

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R for now split Voting Ryan/DeWine, Rubio/Fried and Fetterman/Barletta, Warnock/,Kemp

Abrams isn't running for Gov without VR in GA, Kemp can chet again

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IFNORED THAT WASJT WHAT I was thinking about, I was talking about split voting, again a user takes my words out of context, IGONORED, IGNORED

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It won't because Rs haven't beaten Casey and Fetterman is just like Bob Casey and so is Shapiro Law and Order candidates

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI, MI and PA Govs are all Tossups and MD Gov too if Steele is nominated, Charlie Baker, LePage due to ME 2 and Ayotte can win, so can Craig and Steele

Whitmer hasn't lead in a single except when Biden was at 61% Approval, and we lost IL due Kirk Dillard voters in Suburbs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe D, the state to worry about is MI, ME and MD, Steele, LePage and Whitmer are vulnerable

Mills beat Moody due to Angus King was on the ballot in 2018/ same thing as Whitmer she had Debbie Stabenow running with her

As I have consistently said Midterms are less Partisan than Prez but Prez Johnson can believe Charlie Baker can win but can't believe Whitmer can't lose, NOT

We have Mandela Barnes and Fetterman and Van Hollen running I'm WI, PA and MD, but Steele running with Van Hollen can certainly win, Van Hollen is friends With Kennedy and Shriver clan

Whitmer is Par Quinn

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a Neutral Environment not a Red wave but D's have until Aug 22 to pull up Biden Approvals to 50, Biden won't be at 40 I'm Secular ABC OR USA POLLS Aug 22, BBB AND INFRASTRUCTURE WOULD HAVE MADE IMPACTS ALREADY

It's a Neutral Environment because Rs haven't lead in a single blue state poll they were tied in WI Sen 47 no other R except for MI Gov polls show a close rave and MI polls are junkie until Election

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tom Corbett isn't getting in

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Josh Shapiro has this, he is gonna win and pull Fetterman across the Finish line

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm not as familiar with this race as the PA posters, but I have the impression Shapiro is running very strong. Hot take: He's more likely to be gov in 2023 than Whitmer and Evers.

Not a hot take. Shapiro has a track record of running pretty well statewide.

Never had to run in a midterm year unfavorably to his party

Midterms are based on Turnouts and in 2018 we had 46/43 M and in Prez Election 2020 we had 80/75 M votes in a VBM we're not having low turnout, before 2020 it was same day voting

IPSOS and ZOGBY have Biden at 50/48 the other polls like Insider Advantage showing him at ,40/50 are pure TRASH

Gas prices are going down and 800K jobs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm changing this to Lean R.  I do not think Josh Shapiro will beat back the Red Tide this year.  Republicans can nominate the gopher that pops his head up in the winter and he'd win over Team Blue.

Lol there hasn't been any state by state polls only Trash Approval
Biden polls won't be 40/50 on Nov 22  all he needs to be is 50/48 and IPSOS and Has him already there

What poll has Fetterman or Shapiro losing, NONE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are gonna win WI, PA and MI because the only problem is he dealing with the Border Crisis and his 43/50 Disapprovals are mainly due to his Border policy mainly in TX/FL that's why Ds are favs with WI/PA in the Senate but not favs in the H losing10 seats in TX/FL

Immigrants in Rust belt has no bearing on Border states no COVID except in TX/FL and Cali