PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[wbrocks67]

Interesting. The GOP bench is going to be very interesting, but I guess we shouldn't expect a lot of big names. Just look at the 2018 bench....

[wbrocks67]

Given this new article, it seems only a matter of time till Shapiro makes it official

https://www.phillymag.com/news/2021/03/25/josh-shapiro-governor-pennsylvania/

[wbrocks67]

Given this new article, it seems only a matter of time till Shapiro makes it official

https://www.phillymag.com/news/2021/03/25/josh-shapiro-governor-pennsylvania/

Wow, really good article. Tough at points, but fair criticisms. I wonder how true that Rendell quote is about it costing $15 million to challenge Shapiro. Feels like everyone goes to Rendell whenever they need a bombastic, off-the-wall quote from the Dem establishment. Not sure how in touch he is with what's going on in reality. But does Shapiro's entry literally clear the field? I mean, I expect a couple longshot challengers, but what's the likelihood that Kenney or Krasner gets in just so it's not a cakewalk for him? Probably low.

Yeah, I can't imagine either getting in right now. I expect Shaprio has effectively cleared the field, and for a while now

[wbrocks67]

LOL

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1384162935904215041

[wbrocks67]

Just waiting on Shapiro to make that official announcement...

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, it's too bad that when the CDs got redrawn in 2018 that the state legislative districts didn't get redrawn too, b/c until that happens with a fair map, the GOP will keep control of all of that. Super frustrating. If a 10pt win in 2018 couldn't even do it, then Dems have no hope until there is a new map.

[wbrocks67]

Okay, but really, when the hell is Shapiro going to announce this thing?

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, the Pennsylvania Gubernatorial race is pretty much safe for Doug Mastriano at this point unfortunately.

Doug will be even worse of an opponent for Shapiro than Heidelbaugh was.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, the Pennsylvania Gubernatorial race is pretty much safe for Doug Mastriano at this point unfortunately.

Doug will be even worse of an opponent for Shapiro than Heidelbaugh was.

Doug Mastriano has a huge following in Pennsylvania among Trump supporters due to his strong support for QAnon and the Stop the Steal movement. Those factors, coupled with 2022 likely being a terrible year for the Democrats, should be enough for Doug Mastriano to win 51-48 against Josh Shapiro. 

I can't tell if you're actually being serious or not

but if you are, you do realize that having a huge following among Trump supporters has nothing to do with the GE, right?

[wbrocks67]

Getting pretty annoyed with Shapiro lol

What are the odds he has second thoughts?

idk i doubt it, he cleared the field and theres still been no talk of anyone else serious running. I guess he figures there's no rush at this point

[wbrocks67]

My god, the 2022 GOP line-up is really just a greatest hits of losers.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, I'm wondering what Shapiro is waiting for at this point. Figured he'd announce after Labor Day.

[wbrocks67]

Sounds like the announcement will come Wednesday in Pittsburgh:

https://twitter.com/WGAL/status/1447628336981811200?s=20

Odd considering that he's from Montgomery County (also my home county!) but finally good to have some news on this.

Montco here too! Was hoping he'd have a big event here to kickoff.

[wbrocks67]

Shapiro is the strongest statewide Pennsylvania possibility right now, so glad he's made it official.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JoshShapiroPA/status/1448242368268931075

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/WillSimons_94/status/1450786329562914817

[wbrocks67]

Meanwhile, do we know how much Barletta has raised? He's been running for a few months now

[wbrocks67]

Both GOP primaries for PA-Sen and PA-Gov are becoming a clown car at this point.

[wbrocks67]

Love that! Really excited at the prospect of these two to be next gov/lt gov

[wbrocks67]

Mastriano willwin the primary as polls show. VOTERS DON'T CARE ABOUT JAN 6, they care about bread and butter issues like inflation/gas prices. In the red wave this year Mastriano will win against shapiro sorry red avatars.

Nice try.

[wbrocks67]

Nah, I think it’s good that he chose the person he wanted to work with and is actively campaigning for him. It’s stupid that PA even has a primary for the Lt Gov position because if the electorate has enough faith in the person they’re electing as Gov, they should have enough faith in the person they’re electing as second in command. It was certainly an anomaly to see Fetterman upset an incumbent Lt Gov specifically because Wolf chose not to put a thumb on the scale. That ended up working out, but if Shapiro decides he’d rather work with Davis than Sims, that’s his prerogative. Shapiro is the de facto nominee and therefore the de facto face of the PA Dems at this point anyway.

Huh.  Gonna have to disagree with you; I think it would be stupid to diminish the input of PA voters by reducing the Lt Gov to just another appointed position that party leadership has control over at the end of the day.  I’m generally against reducing voter choice, though, so this just isn’t an exception for me. 

I also think that it’s incredibly entitled and petulant of Josh to essentially say “yeah, I know this is an elected position, but this is who’s gonna be my Lt Gov; if you don’t cancel events with the other candidates, I’m not coming to your events.”  It would be one thing if Shapiro had just endorsed/campaigned with Davis, but flat-out trying to coerce county committees into cancelling appearances by other candidates is way too far for me.  If you want proof, let me know; I’ll put you in touch with the Lycoming County Dems, who can tell you a thing or two about Josh’s recent bullsh**t.

Honestly, as much as I feel bad for Sims and Sosa, I feel even more bad for Davis.  He’s a young legislator who doesn’t have a ton of experience under his belt yet, and was clearly picked because A, he’s geographically what Josh is not, B, he’s demographically what Josh is not, and C, he won’t outshine Josh.  He’s super friendly and I think he has a good career ahead of him in the House or wherever else he wants to go, I’m just worried that Josh/Josh’s team is going to damage his future by acting the way they are while trying to push his candidacy.

I'm quite into politics and even I haven't seen what you're saying. I think sometimes we overestimate the inside baseball stuff. To the average person, Josh has endorsed him and is his running mate, that's pretty much it.

[wbrocks67]

Tilt D with Mastriano being the Republican nominee.

Probably Tilt Democratic with either of the Republican clowncar. Shapiro is a strong candidate who has proven his electoral strengths.

Pennsylvania is a state where a split result is likely to occur, with Shapiro retaining the Governorship for Democrats and the Republican nominee (either Bartos or Oz, most likely) holding the Senate seat for Republicans.

While I think Dems have a good chance at Senate, this is the most likely outcome.

[wbrocks67]

Tilt D with Mastriano being the Republican nominee.

Probably Tilt Democratic with either of the Republican clowncar. Shapiro is a strong candidate who has proven his electoral strengths.

Pennsylvania is a state where a split result is likely to occur, with Shapiro retaining the Governorship for Democrats and the Republican nominee (either Bartos or Oz, most likely) holding the Senate seat for Republicans.

While I think Dems have a good chance at Senate, this is the most likely outcome.

So you believe Democrats are going to win both races?

No I mean the most likely outcome is likely a split with Shapiro winning and an R winning Senate, but I think Dems still have a good chance at Senate too given the terrible GOP field

[wbrocks67]

Tilt D with Mastriano being the Republican nominee.

Probably Tilt Democratic with either of the Republican clowncar. Shapiro is a strong candidate who has proven his electoral strengths.

Pennsylvania is a state where a split result is likely to occur, with Shapiro retaining the Governorship for Democrats and the Republican nominee (either Bartos or Oz, most likely) holding the Senate seat for Republicans.

While I think Dems have a good chance at Senate, this is the most likely outcome.

So you believe Democrats are going to win both races?

No I mean the most likely outcome is likely a split with Shapiro winning and an R winning Senate, but I think Dems still have a good chance at Senate too given the terrible GOP field

I've actually said this myself, that a split outcome is the most likely. Which of the Democratic Senate candidates do you think would be stronger?

I think in the end, Fetterman and Lamb would perform the same, but I think Fetterman would have more of a chance to trip up on the trail considering his campaign already hasn't been the best. Lamb is more battle tested so I think he'd have less potential "gaffes" if you will.

Though while young voters are going to be an issue, could be even more since Super Left Twitter seems to be poisoning peoples minds on Lamb.

I think Kenyatta could really spike turnout in Philly and the urban areas since he would be a history making candidate. But his fundraising up to this point has been rough

So I guess slight advantage Lamb

[wbrocks67]

It's amazing to me there has been not one single poll of this race for the GE