PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[Devout Centrist]

I think its pretty uncontroversial to say now that Mastriano has exceeded everyone's expectations.

Yes, if only because there were none.

Most were expecting him to have no chance and lose in a blowout. Now it looks like he's running a competitive race and a good general election campaign.

It’s July, ma’am.

I think its pretty uncontroversial to say now that Mastriano has exceeded everyone's expectations.

Yes, if only because there were none.

Most were expecting him to have no chance and lose in a blowout. Now it looks like he's running a competitive race and a good general election campaign.

I’m going to go out on a limb and say he’s the favorite. I have no faith in the voting public anymore.

It's VBM what did Voting campaign workers say in VBM be patient we have to count provision ballots and the Rs didn't learn last time Rural votes come in first then urban

We didn't win AZ, NV, Wiz, PA, GA, MI outright we con them on Provisional ballots  we waited days and hours especially GA some people think we won GA by 5 pts we won them when Provisional ballots came in 50K votes

You tell ‘em, OC

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I was an Election Day judge there are 300K Provisional ballots votes from metro areas MKE, DTW, Pitts, Columbus we know the Rural vote comes in first same day vote and the urban vote come in last Early vote that is mostly Oct the insurrection Commission said it's a Red Mirage, PA send Rs to the state Legislature but Ds Dominate the Federal Legislature, look at how many D seats in 2018 D's took away from Rs in 2018 and we have Bib Casey Jr

Rs aren't gonna get swept they will win NH, OH, IA Gov races but we are competetive too

GA was won by 300K provisional ballots and Ossoff and WARNOCK won by 50K but it was a Jan Runoff we didn't have to wait days til the votes came in like in November

Some users think we won GA by 5 pts no we didn't the way they have GA solidified over WI 24 Prez Threads

[Vice President Christian Man]

Do you think it's possible that Mastriano could be the Youngkin of 2022, the underdog who changes path and manages to win against all odds? PA is more conservative than VA but I think the dynamics could be similar because of how polarizing Mastriano was during the primary.

[wesmoorenerd]

I don't think Mastriano has mentioned 2020 even once since winning the primary. His main problem is money, but that should flow in later on.
I think its pretty uncontroversial to say now that Mastriano has exceeded everyone's expectations.
If Mastriano doesn't mention 2020 and Shapiro makes it a centrepoint of his campaign (which is looking likely), this might have some VA-GOV parallels (I know Youngkin is a better candidate than Doug, but PA is double digits more Republican than VA).

The only reason Mastriano is "exceeding expectations" is he's doing better than Oz and looks better in a relative sense. He's not doing well in an absolute sense. His fundraising is shot and he hasn't led a single poll. The VA-GOV comparison makes no sense whatsoever because Mastriano has a completely different profile than Youngkin.

[wbrocks67]

Do you think it's possible that Mastriano could be the Youngkin of 2022, the underdog who changes path and manages to win against all odds? PA is more conservative than VA but I think the dynamics could be similar because of how polarizing Mastriano was during the primary.

When did Youngkin "change paths"? I'm pretty sure he always tried the "moderate" shtick since before he was even nominated.

Mastriano has not tried to "moderate" since the primary, and has since double and tripled down on what he's said before.

[wbrocks67]

I think its pretty uncontroversial to say now that Mastriano has exceeded everyone's expectations.

Yes, if only because there were none.

Most were expecting him to have no chance and lose in a blowout. Now it looks like he's running a competitive race and a good general election campaign.

I'm sorry, this is completely delusional. In a severely objective sense, just no. Maybe you should start reading this thread because we've been posting the insane things he has said and done since the primary.

I'm not sure in what alternate universe this man is running a "good general election campaign" and I can't imagine even an R hack admitting that.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I know several people who make more than Mastriano's war chest. Actually, a decent chunk of SF makes more than he has.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/chwolfson/status/1547364003428683777

[wbrocks67]

+ this. You know it's bad when they go from endorsing Trump in 2020 and Barnette in 2022 to a D in this race

https://twitter.com/JuliaManch/status/1547294392939171840

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I don't think Mastriano has mentioned 2020 even once since winning the primary. His main problem is money, but that should flow in later on.
I think its pretty uncontroversial to say now that Mastriano has exceeded everyone's expectations.
If Mastriano doesn't mention 2020 and Shapiro makes it a centrepoint of his campaign (which is looking likely), this might have some VA-GOV parallels (I know Youngkin is a better candidate than Doug, but PA is double digits more Republican than VA).

Dude, he recently compared Jan 6 committee to the nazis and said all voters should have to re register. He's acting like an unhinged lunatic

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I will say this, with Mastriano not polling as horribly as we thought, it is obvious this race would be likely R with any normal republican.

[Lambsbread]

I will say this, with Mastriano not polling as horribly as we thought, it is obvious this race would be likely R with any normal republican.

Shapiro is a uniquely strong candidate. He has received more votes than any other statewide candidate in PA history in any race, including POTUS. A "normal" Republican (whatever that means these days) would likely have a much better shot, but I wouldn't go as far as saying this race is Likely R if the nominee was Barletta or White or whomever.

[wbrocks67]

I will say this, with Mastriano not polling as horribly as we thought, it is obvious this race would be likely R with any normal republican.

Not necessarily. The polling we've gotten is about a month old at this point, and for a bit after the primary, most voters likely only saw Mastriano as a generic R since he was rather unknown to most people.

That's why I'd like to see some fresh polling post-Roe and with ads having been run the last month to see if there is any change.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

So, are we going to ignore the news of this cold case and it's potential effects if true?

Not even saying it is true, I'm waiting for more evidence first personally, but news like this could hurt Shapiro if true.

[Senator Incitatus]

I will say this, with Mastriano not polling as horribly as we thought, it is obvious this race would be likely R with any normal republican.

Shapiro is a uniquely strong candidate. He has received more votes than any other statewide candidate in PA history in any race, including POTUS.
...

By this you mean he very slightly outperformed the Democratic ticket in a high-turnout race after years of population growth. He won by under 5 points (edit: as an incumbent) against a no-name. Let's not waste breath pretending he's Bob Casey Sr. or John Heinz or something.

The race will be decided by statewide partisan trends.

(edit: It's also true to note that Shapiro ran behind both Torsella and DePasquale, in terms of both margin and trend, in 2016. The Shapiro mythos has gotten ridiculous.)

[GALeftist]

I will say this, with Mastriano not polling as horribly as we thought, it is obvious this race would be likely R with any normal republican.

Shapiro is a uniquely strong candidate. He has received more votes than any other statewide candidate in PA history in any race, including POTUS.
...

By this you mean he very slightly outperformed the Democratic ticket in a high-turnout race after years of population growth. He won by under 5 points (edit: as an incumbent) against a no-name. Let's not waste breath pretending he's Bob Casey Sr. or John Heinz or something.

The race will be decided by statewide partisan trends.

(edit: It's also true to note that Shapiro ran behind both Torsella and DePasquale, in terms of both margin and trend, in 2016. The Shapiro mythos has gotten ridiculous.)

Sure, but Torsella lost to a no-name and Shapiro didn't. That counts for something.

[Duke of York]

So, are we going to ignore the news of this cold case and it's potential effects if true?

Not even saying it is true, I'm waiting for more evidence first personally, but news like this could hurt Shapiro if true.

I’ll give this credence when a reliable source picks it up. A YouTube video from a channel I’ve never heard of isn’t a source.

[Politician]

So, are we going to ignore the news of this cold case and it's potential effects if true?

Not even saying it is true, I'm waiting for more evidence first personally, but news like this could hurt Shapiro if true.

This is a 90% Democrat forum. How much do you think they'll care?

[S019]

So, are we going to ignore the news of this cold case and it's potential effects if true?

Not even saying it is true, I'm waiting for more evidence first personally, but news like this could hurt Shapiro if true.

This is a 90% Democrat forum. How much do you think they'll care?

Find a source that isn’t a random Youtube channel.

[wbrocks67]

I will say this, with Mastriano not polling as horribly as we thought, it is obvious this race would be likely R with any normal republican.

Shapiro is a uniquely strong candidate. He has received more votes than any other statewide candidate in PA history in any race, including POTUS.
...

By this you mean he very slightly outperformed the Democratic ticket in a high-turnout race after years of population growth. He won by under 5 points (edit: as an incumbent) against a no-name. Let's not waste breath pretending he's Bob Casey Sr. or John Heinz or something.

The race will be decided by statewide partisan trends.

(edit: It's also true to note that Shapiro ran behind both Torsella and DePasquale, in terms of both margin and trend, in 2016. The Shapiro mythos has gotten ridiculous.)

Sure, but Torsella lost to a no-name and Shapiro didn't. That counts for something.

Exactly. All the Rs in 2020 were no names, especially Stacy Garrity. She was just as bad as Heidelbaugh and DeFoor was a nobody too. They still won, yet Heidelbaugh lost by 5 while Trump lost by 1.

Not to mention 2016, Shapiro was not an incumbent and was fresh statewide.

Also of note, DePasquale was an incumbent in 2016, while Shapiro's opponent was John Rafferty, who is a bit of institution in PA, at least in SEPA.

It's hilarious to me that people just can't admit that clearly Shapiro is a very good candidate, who has had good electoral success, especially outperforming Biden in a lot of interesting areas in 2020.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

GOP Gov. Nominee Paid Off-Brand Social Network Beloved by Nazis for Followers, Endorsement

Just in case anyone doubted the types of voters Republicans are trying to court during the upcoming elections.

[wbrocks67]

Q2 fundraising here will certainly be interesting.

For Q1, Shapiro raised $4.5M and had $16M COH. Mastriano raised $373K and had $1.1M COH

[KaiserDave]

So, are we going to ignore the news of this cold case and it's potential effects if true?

Not even saying it is true, I'm waiting for more evidence first personally, but news like this could hurt Shapiro if true.

This is a 90% Democrat forum. How much do you think they'll care?

I have a YouTube video!!!! Why won't biased Atlas red avatars acknowledge this GROUNDBREAKING and LEGITIMATE story. more LIBERAL BIAS. I am a truthteller!! pay attention to me!!!

[Huey Long is a Republican]

So, are we going to ignore the news of this cold case and it's potential effects if true?

Not even saying it is true, I'm waiting for more evidence first personally, but news like this could hurt Shapiro if true.

This is a 90% Democrat forum. How much do you think they'll care?

I have a YouTube video!!!! Why won't biased Atlas red avatars acknowledge this GROUNDBREAKING and LEGITIMATE story. more LIBERAL BIAS. I am a truthteller!! pay attention to me!!!

I have a feeling you didn't even read what I said. And I quote myself "Not even saying it is true, I'm waiting for more evidence first personally..." but clowns like you and wbrocks (who said Bredesen would win TN in 2018 because Blackburn was 'nuts', btw) didn't realize that I'm just giving out information that's out there so you aren't blindsided from the news of it does turn out to be true.

Quick side note too, on the PA Sen Race, I waited to see if anyone posted the Mother's Day that Oz made and...no one did. Can't say I'm not surprised by that though.

[GregTheGreat657]

While Shapiro is a stronger candidate than the generic Dem, he is still overrated as a candidate