PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Lol how do people think the GOP is substantially favored when the Democrats have a popular outgoing Governor and a statewide official running unopposed in the primary with massive amounts of funding and a crowded GOP field with a capitol rioter frontrunner. 

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Melissa Hart out, endorses Barletta. It seems like the movement to stop Mastriano is uniting behind Barletta, but it may be too late.

https://twitter.com/reploubarletta/status/1525128985427836934?s=21&t=-2KF1QO...

The PA GOP is only better at campaigns than 45 state Democratic parties, which is sh**t for a GOP affiliate. Barletta is possibly the only candidate worse than Mastriano.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSeidman/status/1526771387809013763?s=20&t=Ch7Z4grF...

Yeah, I could agree that the environment makes it that Shapiro is not favored but anyone who says he has no chance is just wrong.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

IF Mastriano runs on the economy and Shapiro runs on "muh January 6th", then Mastriano will likely win. It doesn't matter how extreme he is.

See, these types of responses make no sense to me bc its clear you haven't been paying attention to this race at all.

People outside of PA commenting on this race just shows how little attention they pay. The comment in another thread trying to compare this race to VA-Gov was silly as well. It's abundantly clear that there is no parallel for this race because Mastriano IS crazier than even your standard Trumpist Republicans. But simultaneously, Shapiro IS running a better campaign and has demonstrated stronger electoral appeal than most standard Democrats. Pennsylvania does not adhere to trends. We do what we do.

Exactly. This forum is a cesspool of sh*t takes. Lol.

I'm surprised nobody has said ''will the fact that Josh Shapiro shares a last name with Ben Shapiro reduce left-wing turnout?" yet

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Pundits and even networks don't know what the hell is going on (see the constant changing of the % of the vote in), it really depends.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

LOL R internal shows Generic D up over Generic R 47-45.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

LOL R internal shows Generic D up over Generic R 47-45.

truly the worst poll i've ever seen. Throw it in the trash bin where it belongs.

Worse than the Whitmer +30 poll from a couple days ago.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Honestly I feel like there is a 50% chance Mastriano was created at a DGA lab.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The PA GOP are a combination of the general lunacy/far right sh**tf@ckery of the NC GOP and the gross incompetence of Colorado Republicans.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The PA GOP are a combination of the general lunacy/far right sh**tf@ckery of the NC GOP and the gross incompetence of Colorado Republicans.

I wouldn't call them incompetent, they won the state for Trump in 2016 and almost did in 2020.

It's relative. They are still more competent than at least 40 state democratic parties.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Mastriano hasn't even focused on those issues though? What also could be his downfall of his own making is his OWN focus on issues like abortion, 2020 fraud, re-registered voters, rather than actual kitchen table issues.

Candidate quality is why this is Lean R and not worse.

I just hope the GOP overreach by focusing on such BS issues and nominating horrible candidates will result in serious underperformance. That's a major contrast to 2018 Dems, when they talked kitchentable issues a lot and tended to nominate candidates that play it safe.

There are several million Americans that make more money in a year than what Mastriano has on hand.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Shapiro’s campaign, with $13 million in the bank and two ads running on television about Mastriano and abortion, said he raised about $500,000 from Friday to Sunday, his best fund-raising pace in the race. And 70% of those contributions came from first-time donors, a spokesperson said.

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/clout/roe-wade-abortion-congress-fund-raising-campaigns-midterm-20220701.html

That's $200,000 more than Mastrabatiano's war chest.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I know several people who make more than Mastriano's war chest. Actually, a decent chunk of SF makes more than he has.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Polls can be off but usually you don't see a statewide race where the Dem has a double digit lead and is above 50% lose.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Looks like Shapiro was at the Puerto Rican parade and did other events while Doug Mastriano was on a call with Andrew Torba

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

If I was Mastriano's campaign manager I couldn't have done a better job myself...

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Can't say he's not engaging with young voters.
https://twitter.com/JoshShapiroPA/status/1555902161204150273?cxt=HHwWgoCw_bSx1pc...

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Looks like Shapiro went to the Tyhir Barnes Anti-Gun basketball charity event today before standing out in the 90F heat in Clinton County before an evening event in Clearfield county.

Meanwhile Skinhe-I mean Mastriano bragged about getting Lloyd Smucker's endorsement.

Remember this:

IF Mastriano runs on the economy and Shapiro runs on "muh January 6th", then Mastriano will likely win. It doesn't matter how extreme he is.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

"Pennsylvania is Safe R with Biden in office"

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/SarahLongwell25/status/1557813900132884485
https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1557861166097080323

Maybe it's me being condescending, but I always tend to think that political focus groups organized by the media always consist of the most uninformed people possible. So if this is indeed reflective of the race at-large, that's a pretty good sign for the general election in both major statewide races.

The average voter has the memory of a goldfish.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Welp I think we know why the GOP is pulling funds. Mastriano is down 15 in a GOP internal LOL.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

If Trump were still President, Shapiro would be on track to winning by a bigger margin than Wolf did in 2018.

Indeed. Fetterman would also be on track to win by a bigger margin than Casey in 2018, and Shamaine Daniels would have a chance to be elected a congresswoman.

2020 was a poisoned chalice for the GOP. Hell, the Dems gaining a trifecta might have been the ideal outcome for them. A Trump six year itch midterm, especially if Dobbs still happened in June 2022, would make 2006 look like 1998.

Toomey would not have retired though

He still would have lost.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

If Trump were still President, Shapiro would be on track to winning by a bigger margin than Wolf did in 2018.

Indeed. Fetterman would also be on track to win by a bigger margin than Casey in 2018, and Shamaine Daniels would have a chance to be elected a congresswoman.

2020 was a poisoned chalice for the GOP. Hell, the Dems gaining a trifecta might have been the ideal outcome for them. A Trump six year itch midterm, especially if Dobbs still happened in June 2022, would make 2006 look like 1998.

Toomey would not have retired though

IIRC, he announced his retirement in October 2020.

oof

It'd honestly be intersting to see where this race would stand if Toomey stayed. Toomey was pretty good about staying on the download and coming across as relatively moderate without taking votes that piss off a significant chunk of his base. Just look at his overperformance of Clinton in many stereotypically high-education well do to suburbs around Philly. This arguably was the difference for him in 2016 as he had a pretty consistent underperformance of Trump in most rural areas (due to downballot lag, McGinty really didn't have any specific appeal).

He most recently had a -7 net approval rating.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Hey guys remember candidate quality doesn't matter at all. This race is definitely at least Lean Mastriano. Shapiro can't buy his way out of the coming red wave.

Lean is very generous, don't you know that once Mastriano starts focusing on kitchen table issues and gets his ads running, Shapiro's polling lead will fall from 10 to 6, which roughly unskewed is about Mastriano +5

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Hey guys remember candidate quality doesn't matter at all. This race is definitely at least Lean Mastriano. Shapiro can't buy his way out of the coming red wave.

Lean is very generous, don't you know that once Mastriano starts focusing on kitchen table issues and gets his ads running, Shapiro's polling lead will fall from 10 to 6, which roughly unskewed is about Mastriano +5

With what money is he going to run ads?

Clearly fundraising will increase as Biden's approval rating increases