PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[Duke of York]

After all this time, what if Shapiro just doesn't run for whatever reason?

This is literally not an option. Every hypothetical post that suggests that Shapiro ultimately will not run is just that: hypothetical. Shapiro has been plotting this run for Governor for 5-10 years at this point. Every step he's taken dating back to his days in the PA legislature has culminated in his eventual run for Governor. No one else has run for a reason--he is the de facto nominee and no one is contesting that. He will run, but he is clearly plotting his entrance based on the state of the GOP primary.

Do you think anyone will run against him in the primary?

[Duke of York]

Mastriano willwin the primary as polls show. VOTERS DON'T CARE ABOUT JAN 6, they care about bread and butter issues like inflation/gas prices. In the red wave this year Mastriano will win against shapiro sorry red avatars.

Yeah Democrats should just give up now and not even bother running a serious campaign its forgone conclusion. Heck Mastriano shouldn't bother campaigning or with GOTV as he's guaranteed to win.

[Duke of York]

Lol how do people think the GOP is substantially favored when the Democrats have a popular outgoing Governor and a statewide official running unopposed in the primary with massive amounts of funding and a crowded GOP field with a capitol rioter frontrunner. 

Yup, the gov race is at least a tossup, if not tilt D. The only question is whether there will be significant ticket splitting, at least in the range of >50k votes. I think the senate is slightly Tilt R due to national environment.

It is absolutely essential Democrats hold the governor's chair. Fetterman is a great candidate and should he get the nod has an excellent chance of winning.

[Duke of York]

LMAOOOO congratulations Governor Shapiro

I would not be so confident. I no longer see any candidate as unelectable.

[Duke of York]

So what's the 411 on this Mastriano guy anyways? Can someone give me a highlight (or maybe lowlight I should say) reel of what makes him so unelectable?

I no longer think anyone is unelectable.

[Duke of York]

I no longer think anyone is unelectable.

Bro gas is still 5,000 a gallon. Springfield Gulf was D R Y last week. 50-cent cakes are now 75-cent cakes. The GOP could run a wet mop in the fall and they'd pull it out at this rate.
>Inb4 its the corporations fault.
Then soak em.
>Nobody who cares ab inflation was gonna vote D anyway
It hits the trifecta of mobilizing Rs, grabbing as many D-Rs as possible, and having loyal Ds check out. Burnt.

I’m not sure if this is meant as a serious post or not. You think whoever wins the Republican primary is shoo in?

[Duke of York]

I feel like people should look into the Northampton County Executive race from last fall. Reminder that this is a critical swing county located in this very state.

Republican candidate Steve Lynch was a Stop the Steal believer who was at the rally on January 6 and wanted to send armed men to intimidate school boards. Pretty similar to Mastriano.

The incumbent Democrat, Lamont McClure, was reelected by over 12 points in the same county that Biden carried by less than 1. On the same night that Terry McAuliffe and Phil Murphy underperformed Biden's 2020 performance in their states by double digits.

I normally wouldn't read too much into something like this, but again, this is one of the swingiest counties in the exact same state.

I honestly think the bigger threat to Dems will be turnout crashing in the bluest cores of the state. If everyone who showed up in 2020 revoted for Gov, then I think Shapiro would be a pretty clear favorite to win, however, turnout dynamics will def favour Rs.

This is why I think Mastriano is favored many people in blue areas can't be bothered to vote every year.

[Duke of York]

LOL R internal shows Generic D up over Generic R 47-45.

truly the worst poll i've ever seen. Throw it in the trash bin where it belongs.

[Duke of York]

I think its pretty uncontroversial to say now that Mastriano has exceeded everyone's expectations.

Yes, if only because there were none.

Most were expecting him to have no chance and lose in a blowout. Now it looks like he's running a competitive race and a good general election campaign.

I’m going to go out on a limb and say he’s the favorite. I have no faith in the voting public anymore.

[Duke of York]

So, are we going to ignore the news of this cold case and it's potential effects if true?

Not even saying it is true, I'm waiting for more evidence first personally, but news like this could hurt Shapiro if true.

I’ll give this credence when a reliable source picks it up. A YouTube video from a channel I’ve never heard of isn’t a source.

[Duke of York]

Mastriano continues to shoot himself in the foot with these controversial statements about Israel now. I don't think he even cracks 45% at the moment.

Hopefully he sinks even lower. The man is evil and a bigot.

[Duke of York]

This Election in PA is OVER

Dont get overconfident. I do not consider any election as written in stone anymore.

[Duke of York]

Mastriano really makes no effort whatsoever to display any moderate image or broad appeal.  He really just tacks hard right and can't move away from them even for a moment.   Everything needs to be the most conservative stance, the most right wing position, the most pro-Trump statements.   To him there's absolutely no need to balance or appeal to more people or anything.

It's like he never left Republican Primary campaign mode, or a different mode doesn't even exist for him.

He's still running a better campaign than Dr. Oz is.

Slightly better I would say. While I have both Josh Shapiro and John Fetterman narrowly winning as of this week, I think there will be a decent number of Fetterman/Mastriano voters. John Fetterman I think will win by 1%, whereas Josh Shapiro will only win by 0.25-0.5%.

I cannot see it being that close.

[Duke of York]

Hey guys remember candidate quality doesn't matter at all. This race is definitely at least Lean Mastriano. Shapiro can't buy his way out of the coming red wave.

Lean is very generous, don't you know that once Mastriano starts focusing on kitchen table issues and gets his ads running, Shapiro's polling lead will fall from 10 to 6, which roughly unskewed is about Mastriano +5

With what money is he going to run ads?

[Duke of York]

heard the PA house has a chance to flip. Can anyone confirm?

[Duke of York]

Word on Twitter is that turnout for Mastriano will likely make the PA Gov result much tighter than results indicate, especially if Oz appears to me trailing by 2 instead of 4

Word on twitter isn’t a a reliable source.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1592942140778491905?s=20&t=aJJ5Eij...

And the expected also happens in HD-151. Recounts and challenged ballots are all that remains statewide for the chamber.

Safe D HDs 34 and 35 will however instantly have special elections after the inaugural session, the latter because of the above (which is a mistake, he's the lt gov elect), the former because of Summer Lee going to congress. 32 is the actual Safe D seat with the dead Dem.

wow the house could very well flip?

Are 34 and 35 safe districts?

[Duke of York]

https://apnews.com/article/pittsburgh-pennsylvania-20cd143afd7b31e0c2d05cc6a761ae5e

Court greenlights holding Pa. House special elections Feb. 7

Do Republicans have a chance in any of these districts?

Ive heard they might in the 32nd which was rendered vacant due to the passing of Anthony DeLuca from cancer a few weeks before the election.

[Duke of York]

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/proof-of-id-to-vote-amendment-passes-pennsylvania-senate/

Can the state house block this?   I know it's a moderate D whose elected speaker.  

Almost certainly. Even if it doesn't, Shapiro will obviously veto it. Nothing to worry about.

the governor can't veto an amendment.