PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[Duke of York]

I feel like people should look into the Northampton County Executive race from last fall. Reminder that this is a critical swing county located in this very state.

Republican candidate Steve Lynch was a Stop the Steal believer who was at the rally on January 6 and wanted to send armed men to intimidate school boards. Pretty similar to Mastriano.

The incumbent Democrat, Lamont McClure, was reelected by over 12 points in the same county that Biden carried by less than 1. On the same night that Terry McAuliffe and Phil Murphy underperformed Biden's 2020 performance in their states by double digits.

I normally wouldn't read too much into something like this, but again, this is one of the swingiest counties in the exact same state.

I honestly think the bigger threat to Dems will be turnout crashing in the bluest cores of the state. If everyone who showed up in 2020 revoted for Gov, then I think Shapiro would be a pretty clear favorite to win, however, turnout dynamics will def favour Rs.

This is why I think Mastriano is favored many people in blue areas can't be bothered to vote every year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol Shapiro is gonna win this race it's a 303 Map or will be because Gas prices are going way down from 7.00 it's 5.50 now, we won MI, Pa and WI on Provisions ballots all these users think White voters are underestimated they're not it's Minorities that are underpolled they teach you this in Civics class in Undergrad, MINORITIES NOT WHITE VOTERS ARE UNDERPOLLED

They said during Reagan Era minority vote didn't participate because they were content with Project life, now there are no projects they participate now with urban poverty

[wbrocks67]

I feel like people should look into the Northampton County Executive race from last fall. Reminder that this is a critical swing county located in this very state.

Republican candidate Steve Lynch was a Stop the Steal believer who was at the rally on January 6 and wanted to send armed men to intimidate school boards. Pretty similar to Mastriano.

The incumbent Democrat, Lamont McClure, was reelected by over 12 points in the same county that Biden carried by less than 1. On the same night that Terry McAuliffe and Phil Murphy underperformed Biden's 2020 performance in their states by double digits.

I normally wouldn't read too much into something like this, but again, this is one of the swingiest counties in the exact same state.

I honestly think the bigger threat to Dems will be turnout crashing in the bluest cores of the state. If everyone who showed up in 2020 revoted for Gov, then I think Shapiro would be a pretty clear favorite to win, however, turnout dynamics will def favour Rs.

This is why I think Mastriano is favored many people in blue areas can't be bothered to vote every year.

Not sure how this works since college+ whites have historically been the ones to come out, even in off year elections, and those voters are more than ever in vote-rich areas like Allegheny and SEPA.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like people should look into the Northampton County Executive race from last fall. Reminder that this is a critical swing county located in this very state.

Republican candidate Steve Lynch was a Stop the Steal believer who was at the rally on January 6 and wanted to send armed men to intimidate school boards. Pretty similar to Mastriano.

The incumbent Democrat, Lamont McClure, was reelected by over 12 points in the same county that Biden carried by less than 1. On the same night that Terry McAuliffe and Phil Murphy underperformed Biden's 2020 performance in their states by double digits.

I normally wouldn't read too much into something like this, but again, this is one of the swingiest counties in the exact same state.

I honestly think the bigger threat to Dems will be turnout crashing in the bluest cores of the state. If everyone who showed up in 2020 revoted for Gov, then I think Shapiro would be a pretty clear favorite to win, however, turnout dynamics will def favour Rs.

This is why I think Mastriano is favored many people in blue areas can't be bothered to vote every year.

Not sure how this works since college+ whites have historically been the ones to come out, even in off year elections, and those voters are more than ever in vote-rich areas like Allegheny and SEPA.

Uh the Philly black vote maybe?

[wbrocks67]

I feel like people should look into the Northampton County Executive race from last fall. Reminder that this is a critical swing county located in this very state.

Republican candidate Steve Lynch was a Stop the Steal believer who was at the rally on January 6 and wanted to send armed men to intimidate school boards. Pretty similar to Mastriano.

The incumbent Democrat, Lamont McClure, was reelected by over 12 points in the same county that Biden carried by less than 1. On the same night that Terry McAuliffe and Phil Murphy underperformed Biden's 2020 performance in their states by double digits.

I normally wouldn't read too much into something like this, but again, this is one of the swingiest counties in the exact same state.

I honestly think the bigger threat to Dems will be turnout crashing in the bluest cores of the state. If everyone who showed up in 2020 revoted for Gov, then I think Shapiro would be a pretty clear favorite to win, however, turnout dynamics will def favour Rs.

This is why I think Mastriano is favored many people in blue areas can't be bothered to vote every year.

Not sure how this works since college+ whites have historically been the ones to come out, even in off year elections, and those voters are more than ever in vote-rich areas like Allegheny and SEPA.

Uh the Philly black vote maybe?

Philly turnout was decent all things considered last year, so I don't imagine it would be lower for a legit midterm race.

[wbrocks67]

We're a week out from the primary and still no GE polls. Insanity.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Again, there is a hidden Blk and Brown and Female vote in this Environment, that's why we outnumber Rs 65/65M votes it's called wave insurance and we won the big three narrowly in 20

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Pundits and even networks don't know what the hell is going on (see the constant changing of the % of the vote in), it really depends.

[sg0508]

Perfect point of total self-destruction by the GOP. 

[wbrocks67]

Perfect point of total self-destruction by the GOP. 

The PA GOP has been a mess for years now. I mean, the top candidates have been Mastriano, Parnell, Wagner, Barletta, etc. They aren't sending their best.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This poll conducted for Future Majority & America’s Future Majority shows Shapiro beating Mastriano by 43 points with Hispanic voters.

https://futuremajority.org/wp-content/uploads/Future-Majority-Polling-Report-Latino-Voters-in-Arizona-Nevada-and-Pennsylvania.pdf

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Users know it's a 303 map and they try to pretend the question is Gov Evers will he and Barnes both win in 22 just like they won in 2018

[wbrocks67]

This poll conducted for Future Majority & America’s Future Majority shows Shapiro beating Mastriano by 43 points with Hispanic voters.

https://futuremajority.org/wp-content/uploads/Future-Majority-Polling-Report-Latino-Voters-in-Arizona-Nevada-and-Pennsylvania.pdf

Shapiro +43 would be better than everyone except for Hillary, though that was a bit of anomaly since she was extremely strong with Latinos across the board (or rather that, combined with Trump's weakness as well)

2020: Biden +42
2018 GOV: Wolf +36
2018 SEN: Casey +38
2016: Clinton +52

[wbrocks67]

Will people finally stop acting as if Mastriano is *not* some type of albatross around the GOP? Yes, he's so generic R isn't he?!!

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1532311769460400130

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

LOL R internal shows Generic D up over Generic R 47-45.

[Duke of York]

LOL R internal shows Generic D up over Generic R 47-45.

truly the worst poll i've ever seen. Throw it in the trash bin where it belongs.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

LOL R internal shows Generic D up over Generic R 47-45.

truly the worst poll i've ever seen. Throw it in the trash bin where it belongs.

Worse than the Whitmer +30 poll from a couple days ago.

[wbrocks67]

Civiqs has now sent me a poll twice for this race (the latest one included Oz/Fetterman too), so hopefully we'll see something public soon

[SnowLabrador]

Civiqs has now sent me a poll twice for this race (the latest one included Oz/Fetterman too), so hopefully we'll see something public soon

Who cares? The polling industry is dead.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Civiqs has now sent me a poll twice for this race (the latest one included Oz/Fetterman too), so hopefully we'll see something public soon

Who cares? The polling industry is dead.

Note to Civiqs: don't send SnowLabrador a survey.

[NewYorkExpress]

Mastriano compares Capitol riot to Reichstag fire.

The Donald Trump-endorsed nominee for governor in Pennsylvania compared the Jan. 6 attack to historical events staged by the Nazis, saying that he saw "parallels" between the criticism of the Jan. 6 attack and the 1933 Reichstag fire, which Hitler used to seize more power.

Doug Mastriano was at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6.

[Senator Incitatus]

Not sure I can support Mastriano given his implied criticism of McCarthy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Shapiro and Fetterman are gonna win anyways as well as Whitmer

[wbrocks67]

Mastriano is basically running his campaign using the same insane sh*tposting memes that your crazy aunt posts to Facebook

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1538862373183836160

[Sir Mohamed]

Mastriano compares Capitol riot to Reichstag fire.

The Donald Trump-endorsed nominee for governor in Pennsylvania compared the Jan. 6 attack to historical events staged by the Nazis, saying that he saw "parallels" between the criticism of the Jan. 6 attack and the 1933 Reichstag fire, which Hitler used to seize more power.

Doug Mastriano was at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6.

LOL, the dude is such a trainwreck. Hopefully he's rejected by more than a few points.