COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[GeorgiaModerate]

Reports of 40,000+ new infections per day doesn't matter if it leads to 4+ million new jobs in this months job report, and I'm not being sarcastic.

That's short-sighted.  If this rate of case creation continues, the recovery will be slowed down and there won't be such a jobs report next month.

It's not about what I think -- it's about what the White House and GOP governors think and what they are willing to accept as an acceptable risk: a booming economy in the midst of a pandemic is a booming economy. That's why I said I wasn't being sarcastic.

Thanks for amplifying; I originally thought you meant your own opinion.  I agree with your evaluation of the GOP leaders' thinking on this.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is brilliant - click to read the whole thread.

https://twitter.com/libbyjones715/status/1277245399795982337

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1278712172374298625

[redjohn]

https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1278712172374298625

But...it's only young people being infected so it doesn't matter!

Trump will lose the election because of this incredible incompetence on his part and from most Republican officials throughout the country. Young people getting infected at high risks = their parents, friends' parents, grandparents getting infected.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It is really strange to me how much the coverage of the pandemic has shifted away from reporting death numbers and toward just reporting case numbers, and away from a national perspective toward a focus on specific states.

It seems like this should be the reverse; we should report more on cases early on when we know little about the spread of the virus and its effect, and more on deaths later, especially as we learn more about what actually causes and prevents deaths.   

As an example, all during April and May, the Washington Post has a very prominent graphic on its front page tracking daily deaths from the virus.  But at some point in June, they removed this graphic and replaced it with a graphic of "places with most reported cases per capita", with no mention of deaths at all.

It really seems like our reporting is stuck in the weeds of a few states with surging cases in the moment, with little perspective on the overall course and impact of the virus going forward.

[emailking]

They're both important numbers and should both be covered, as well as hospitalizations.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1278729930264711170

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1278729930264711170

https://mobile.twitter.com/THEHermanCain/status/1274489632886075398

I have no words.

[GP270watch]

 Florida is having a terrible day.

[rob in cal]

  Does any other country have the US dynamic of a rising case curve simultaneous to a continually declining or at least plateauing (at a much lower level than its peak) death curve?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JasonWhitely/status/1278785312345464832

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Massachusetts is reporting 51 deaths today (14 more than Arizona and just 13 less than Florida) just two days after they reported zero deaths.  That seems like some real reporting voodoo.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/JasonWhitely/status/1278785312345464832

We have our first Republican Governor who is not Baker or Hogan issuing a statewide mask order. I expect Lee to follow, and we'll see if it spreads throughout the remainder of the country.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The positivity rate seems to be continuing to trend up, with fluctuations on the daily level:

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

 Does any other country have the US dynamic of a rising case curve simultaneous to a continually declining or at least plateauing (at a much lower level than its peak) death curve?

The answer to your question is Iran. Their path looks quite similar to ours so far.

The thing is, however, that if we are on Iran's path then deaths will have pretty much stabilized by this point and will start to rise on July 7 or so.


Another possible answer is Israel, but a key difference there is that they got new confirmed cases down to pretty much nothing before they started spiking way up again. They haven't really had deaths go back up yet in a clear way, but their death data is very noisy due to small overall #s.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/JasonWhitely/status/1278785312345464832

We have our first Republican Governor who is not Baker or Hogan issuing a statewide mask order. I expect Lee to follow, and we'll see if it spreads throughout the remainder of the country.

Another addendum to this. Governor Kelly in Kansas has also made masks mandatory: https://krdo.com/news/national-world/2020/07/02/these-are-the-states-requiring-people-to-wear-masks-when-out-in-public/. 21 states and the District of Columbia, have now made masks mandatory in public. Let's see if that becomes a majority in the next few weeks.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The thing that is especially concerning about the data today are not so much the #s such as Florida exceeding 10k cases in a day (at this point, it is to be expected that they and the other states that have been getting attention are trending up and will likely continue to do so for at least for a while longer), but also more and more states that have not been so much part of this 2nd wave seem to possibly be in the very early stages of trending up as well.

States such as New Mexico, Montana, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Delaware, Iowa, Ohio, possibly Maryland and Wisconsin, and even isolated Alaska all seem to be posting notably high case #s today and are either clearly on or may be starting to be on a short term up-trend. Even New York broke 1k cases today for the first time in a while... hopefully that is just a blip (in that case too soon to say that it isn't)...

This shouldn't really be surprising, because even if those states managed to control their own cases fairly well, it is inevitable that people from the other states with rampant epidemics will travel to those other states and start things up again. This is why epidemics cannot be controlled without a national policy (and also an intentional one).

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1278729930264711170

https://mobile.twitter.com/THEHermanCain/status/1274489632886075398

I have no words.

Wow! All nine of them!

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 7/2 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 4/26-5/2 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/3-5/9 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/10-5/16 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/17-5/23 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/24-5/30 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 5/31-6/6 in this post>
<Last Numbers for 6/7-6/13 in this post>

6/14: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,162,144 (+19,920 | Δ Change: ↓21.27% | Σ Increase: ↑0.93%)
• Deaths: 117,853 (+326 | Δ Change: ↓53.56% | Σ Increase: ↑0.28%)

6/15:

• Cases: 2,182,950 (+20,806 | Δ Change: ↑4.45% | Σ Increase: ↑0.96%)
• Deaths: 118,283 (+430 | Δ Change: ↑31.90% | Σ Increase: ↑0.36%)

6/16:

• Cases: 2,208,400 (+25,450 | Δ Change: ↑22.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.17%)
• Deaths: 119,132 (+849 | Δ Change: ↑97.44% | Σ Increase: ↑0.72%)

6/17:

• Cases: 2,234,471 (+26,071 | Δ Change: ↑2.44% | Σ Increase: ↑1.18%)
• Deaths: 119,941 (+809 | Δ Change: ↓4.71% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)

6/18:

• Cases: 2,263,651 (+29,180 | Δ Change: ↑11.93% | Σ Increase: ↑1.31%)
• Deaths: 120,688 (+747 | Δ Change: ↓7.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.62%)

6/19:

• Cases: 2,297,190 (+33,539 | Δ Change: ↑14.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.48%)
• Deaths: 121,407 (+719 | Δ Change: ↓3.75% | Σ Increase: ↑0.60%)

6/20:

• Cases: 2,330,578 (+33,388 | Δ Change: ↓0.45% | Σ Increase: ↑1.45%)
• Deaths: 121,980 (+573 | Δ Change: ↓20.31% | Σ Increase: ↑0.47%)

6/21: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,356,657 (+26,079 | Δ Change: ↓21.89% | Σ Increase: ↑1.12%)
• Deaths: 122,247 (+267 | Δ Change: ↓53.40% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

6/22:

• Cases: 2,388,153 (+31,496 | Δ Change: ↑20.77% | Σ Increase: ↑1.34%)
• Deaths: 122,610 (+363 | Δ Change: ↑35.96% | Σ Increase: ↑0.30%)

6/23:

• Cases: 2,424,168 (+36,015 | Δ Change: ↑14.35% | Σ Increase: ↑1.51%)
• Deaths: 123,473 (+863 | Δ Change: ↑137.74% | Σ Increase: ↑0.70%)
• Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by DE

6/24:

• Cases: 2,462,554 (+38,386 | Δ Change: ↑6.18% | Σ Increase: ↑1.58%)
• Deaths: 124,281 (+808 | Δ Change: ↓6.37% | Σ Increase: ↑0.65%)

6/25:

• Cases: 2,504,588 (+42,034 | Δ Change: ↑9.50% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
• Deaths: 126,780 (+2,499 | Δ Change: ↑209.28% | Σ Increase: ↑2.01%)
• Death toll inflated by older counts recently dumped by NJ

6/26:

• Cases: 2,552,940 (+48,352 | Δ Change: ↑15.03% | Σ Increase: ↑1.93%)
• Deaths: 127,640 (+860 | Δ Change: ↓65.59% | Σ Increase: ↑0.68%)
• Death Δ Change affected by older counts recently dumped by NJ on 6/25

6/27:

• Cases: 2,596,537 (+43,597 | Δ Change: ↓9.83% | Σ Increase: ↑1.71%)
• Deaths: 128,152 (+512 | Δ Change: ↓40.47% | Σ Increase: ↑0.40%)

6/28: <Sunday>

• Cases: 2,637,077 (+40,540 | Δ Change: ↓7.01% | Σ Increase: ↑1.56%)
• Deaths: 128,437 (+285 | Δ Change: ↓44.34% | Σ Increase: ↑0.22%)

6/29:

• Cases: 2,681,802 (+44,725 | Δ Change: ↑10.32% | Σ Increase: ↑1.70%)
• Deaths: 128,779 (+342 | Δ Change: ↑20.00% | Σ Increase: ↑0.27%)

6/30:

• Cases: 2,727,853 (+46,051 | Δ Change: ↑2.96% | Σ Increase: ↑1.72%)
• Deaths: 130,122 (+1,343 | Δ Change: ↑292.69% | Σ Increase: ↑1.04%)

7/1 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 2,779,953 (+52,100 | Δ Change: ↑13.14% | Σ Increase: ↑1.91%)
• Deaths: 130,798 (+676 | Δ Change: ↓49.66% | Σ Increase: ↑0.52%)

7/2 (Today):

• Cases: 2,837,189 (+57,236 | Δ Change: ↑9.86% | Σ Increase: ↑2.06%)
• Deaths: 131,485 (+687 | Δ Change: ↑1.62% | Σ Increase: ↑0.53%)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Does anyone have an explanation for what is going in on Sweden right now?

They never really saw any reduction in their cases, and in fact cases have been rising steadily for about five weeks now (from about 600/day on average to 1000/day).

Yet deaths have been declining consistently for over three months, from a 7-day average of almost 100/day, to an average yesterday of six.

They almost look like an exagerrated version of the US, with cases continuing to explode but deaths almost entirely disappearing.  

[Good Habit]

Does anyone have an explanation for what is going in on Sweden right now?

They never really saw any reduction in their cases, and in fact cases have been rising steadily for about five weeks now (from about 600/day on average to 1000/day).

Yet deaths have been declining consistently for over three months, from a 7-day average of almost 100/day, to an average yesterday of six.

FAKE NEWS!! (I suppose you use Worldometer Data...) Usually, in most countries, Tests and Deaths are reported with a backlog of several days (in some countries even weeks).

For most countries, WM just reports the difference betweens yesterdays cumulative data and todays cumulative data as "Todays cases", although most of them would have happened earlier (or as many governements clearly communicate, are at least 24 hours old at the time of reporting).

About 3 weeks ago, the official Swedish government site started to add more transparency as to "when" the cases actually happened - (as do some other government sites) - but differently to most other countries, Worldometer decided - in the case of Sweden - to adjust the data retroactively. That means if there are 1000 additional cases reported today, they are not put in the field (new cases) - but the data for the previous days are adjusted, so WM shows (e.g) 50 new cases, but changes yesterdays number to + 600, the day before yesterday + 300, and even older days +50).

This is of course very missleading, because "Todays" numbers only include new reports until about 10 am local time... So - may be - WM is biased to support Swedens narrative...?

This adjustment is also likely the main reason WM started to include new Swedish data relatively late in the day, usually many hours after the John Hopkins Dashbord... - because WM is changing the data of previous days (but usually just in case of Sweden...)

As to deaths, they are probably often reported even later than new cases...


The total in reported deaths went from 5333 on June 30 to 5370 (+37) on July 1th, and to 5411 (+41) on July 2th... - so nowhere your very low numbers...

[Calthrina950]

What to make of this? To stem the worsening pandemic, the California Department of Public Health has temporarily banned singing and chanting in places of worship: https://krdo.com/news/national-world/2020/07/03/with-a-worsening-pandemic-california-bans-singing-in-places-of-worship/. Is this an overreach of government? Or is this an appropriate public health measure? What are we to say about it?

[It’s so Joever]

What to make of this? To stem the worsening pandemic, the California Department of Public Health has temporarily banned singing and chanting in places of worship: https://krdo.com/news/national-world/2020/07/03/with-a-worsening-pandemic-california-bans-singing-in-places-of-worship/. Is this an overreach of government? Or is this an appropriate public health measure? What are we to say about it?

Considering they allowed the protests to occur without any hesitation, I feel it’s very hypocritical of CA to ban chanting in places of worship. Still, I get the logic and am not necessarily against it.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

What to make of this? To stem the worsening pandemic, the California Department of Public Health has temporarily banned singing and chanting in places of worship: https://krdo.com/news/national-world/2020/07/03/with-a-worsening-pandemic-california-bans-singing-in-places-of-worship/. Is this an overreach of government? Or is this an appropriate public health measure? What are we to say about it?

This would depend to me on what exactly the text of the regulation was.  If it is literally a ban on “singing and chanting un places of worship”, that would seem to me to be both a violation of free speech (as one could argue that singing and chanting constitute content rather time, place, or manner) and the free exercise clause (if it specifically targets places of worship).

[Brittain33]

What to make of this? To stem the worsening pandemic, the California Department of Public Health has temporarily banned singing and chanting in places of worship: https://krdo.com/news/national-world/2020/07/03/with-a-worsening-pandemic-california-bans-singing-in-places-of-worship/. Is this an overreach of government? Or is this an appropriate public health measure? What are we to say about it?

This would depend to me on what exactly the text of the regulation was.  If it is literally a ban on “singing and chanting un places of worship”, that would seem to me to be both a violation of free speech (as one could argue that singing and chanting constitute content rather time, place, or manner) and the free exercise clause (if it specifically targets places of worship).

Presumably houses of worship are being specified because all secular group singing has already been banned by limits on # of people who can gather and because people claim a special right for churches to ignore public health regulations, not because non-religious group singing is exempted from public health regulations.