Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[GeorgiaModerate]

Øptimus coronavirus tracker (twice weekly), June 6-13, 840 adults including 742 LV


Adults:

Approve 42 (+4)
Disapprove 58 (-4)

Strongly approve 20 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-3)

Biden 43 (nc), Trump 34 (+2)

GCB: D 39 (nc), R 32 (+2)


RV:

Approve 46 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-2)

Strongly approve 26 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-3)

Biden 52 (-1), Trump 43 (+1)

GCB: D 47 (nc), R 39 (nc)


Possibly some reversion to the mean after their last two surveys, which were abysmal for Trump.

[BudgieForce]

Øptimus coronavirus tracker (twice weekly), June 6-13, 840 adults including 742 LV


Adults:

Approve 42 (+4)
Disapprove 58 (-4)

Strongly approve 20 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-3)

Biden 43 (nc), Trump 34 (+2)

GCB: D 39 (nc), R 32 (+2)


RV:

Approve 46 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-2)

Strongly approve 26 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-3)

Biden 52 (-1), Trump 43 (+1)

GCB: D 47 (nc), R 39 (nc)


Possibly some reversion to the mean after their last two surveys, which were abysmal for Trump.

That's some RV filter.

[Badger]

Arkansas: Hendrix College, June 9-10, 869 LV (change from Nov.)

Approve 46 (-4)
Diaspprove 50 (+5)

Trump 47, Biden 45

Sen. Tom Cotton has an approval rating of 44/47, while Gov. Asa Hutchinson is at 62/19.

Way too good to be true. And even if somehow it is, it'll never last.

Flip the second district and I'll be pleasantly surprised

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1272514699578531840

But those numbers for Trump seem to have improved.

Because he's an incumbent. Trump will only win if Biden manages to piss off 50% of voters.

He won with less than 46% of the vote last time , and with a significantly lower approval rating. I won't rest easy until I see that 270th electoral vote in Biden's column.

[wbrocks67]

Trump's approval continues to crater on 538.

It's now at 40.8/55.1 (-14.3)

[emailking]

Øptimus coronavirus tracker (twice weekly), June 6-13, 840 adults including 742 LV


Adults:

Approve 42 (+4)
Disapprove 58 (-4)

Strongly approve 20 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-3)

Biden 43 (nc), Trump 34 (+2)

GCB: D 39 (nc), R 32 (+2)


RV:

Approve 46 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-2)

Strongly approve 26 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-3)

Biden 52 (-1), Trump 43 (+1)

GCB: D 47 (nc), R 39 (nc)


Possibly some reversion to the mean after their last two surveys, which were abysmal for Trump.

Is this approval or virus approval?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Øptimus coronavirus tracker (twice weekly), June 6-13, 840 adults including 742 LV


Adults:

Approve 42 (+4)
Disapprove 58 (-4)

Strongly approve 20 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-3)

Biden 43 (nc), Trump 34 (+2)

GCB: D 39 (nc), R 32 (+2)


RV:

Approve 46 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-2)

Strongly approve 26 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-3)

Biden 52 (-1), Trump 43 (+1)

GCB: D 47 (nc), R 39 (nc)


Possibly some reversion to the mean after their last two surveys, which were abysmal for Trump.

Is this approval or virus approval?

Overall approval.   I've stopped posting virus approval from the polls that include it, because it's converged pretty close to overall approval in most of them.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump not holding Coronavirus task force briefings is hurting him. Not signing 3T package that House passed is hurting him. Voters need another round of stimulus money and he believes it's his money and its money the tax payers paid into the system. Thats why they take out Social security taxes from our paychecks. That's why he is at 39 percent approvals

[pbrower2a]

Could support for Trump be eroding among white people in the Mountain andDeep South?

What the....?

President Donald Trump and U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., are struggling with independent voters in Arkansas less than five months before Election Day.

A new survey from Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College shows that Trump and Cotton have negative job approval ratings with voters, with independents giving them low marks by a double-digit margin. The poll was conducted Tuesday, June 9 and Wednesday, June 10, of 869 statewide likely voters and has a margin of error of +/-3.3%.

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Donald Trump is doing as President?

46% Approve
50% Disapprove
4% Unsure

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Tom Cotton is doing as a United States Senator?

44% Approve
47% Disapprove
9% Unsure

While partisan voters predictably cast their strong opinions in positive and negative directions, self-identified independent voters in Arkansas disapprove of Trump by a 39-54% margin and disapprove of Cotton by a 39-51% margin. Voters in this same poll gave Republican Gov. Asa Hutchinson a 62-19% positive job review, with independents supporting Hutchinson by a 64-20% margin.

“Between a pandemic, high unemployment, racial strife and civic unrest, Trump and Cotton appear to be bearing the brunt of voter angst, whereas Gov. Hutchinson is benefiting from his visibility and leadership style,” said Talk Business & Politics Editor-in-Chief Roby Brock.

Trump had a 50-45% job approval rating in the November 2019 Arkansas Poll. Cotton’s job approval was 45-30% in that same poll. Cotton does not have a Democratic opponent in this cycle. He faces Libertarian Ricky Dale Harrington, Jr., while Independent Daniel Whitfield is attempting to qualify for the ballot.

In a baseline question to monitor the presidential race between now and November, Arkansas voters today only give Trump a two-point advantage over Democrat Joe Biden.

Q: If the election for President were being held today, which candidate would you support?

47% Donald J. Trump
45% Joseph R. Biden
5% Another candidate
3% Unsure

Trump won Arkansas with 60% of the vote in 2016. Again, independent voters are leaning to Biden by a 46-40% margin.

“We are seeing trends in other states that resemble the Trump-Biden matchup here, but it has been a decade since we’ve seen independent voters lean to the Democrat versus the Republican in a high-profile race,” Brock said. “Is this an aberration or a trend? It’s a snapshot in time during a turbulent month. I’d have to see this show up consistently to believe something is shifting in deep-red Arkansas, but we’ll be watching this going forward.”

John Brummett, columnist with the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, was interviewed on the poll’s results, which you can view here.

https://talkbusiness.net/2020/06/poll-independents-dissatisfied-with-trump-cotton-biden-competitive-in-arkansas/

Recognizing that match-up polling typically lags approval polling... I now consider Arkansas a potential Trump loss. I never expected to see that.

Ann Selzer, Des Moines Register:

© Copyright 2020, Des Moines Register and Tribune Co.


Trump carried Iowa by 9 percentage points in his 2016 contest against Democrat Hillary Clinton. But today, the Register’s Iowa Poll shows the president leading former Vice President Joe Biden by just 1 point — 44% to 43%.

The poll of 674 likely voters was conducted June 7-10 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines. Its margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

The results — which come in the midst of a pandemic and widespread civil unrest — are among a wave of polling that indicates an increasingly unstable electoral map for the president. States like Iowa that were expected to be safe territory for him after clear wins in 2016 now appear to be battlegrounds in 2020.

A March Iowa Poll showed 41% of likely Iowa voters would support Biden in a general election against the president, and 51% said they would support Trump.

Trump’s approval rating has fallen 5 percentage points from March to 45% today. Now, a majority of Iowans — 52% — disapprove of the job he’s doing.

Forty-five percent of Iowans say they approve of how he has addressed COVID-19, while 53% disapprove and 6% are unsure. Just 37% approve of the way he has addressed protests surrounding race and police actions. Another 55% disapprove and 8% are unsure.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/06/15/iowa-poll-donald-trump-leads-joe-biden-1-point/3178743001/

Comment: although Trump leads Biden in the match-up -- barely  it is at 44-43. Trump will likely get at least 44... but with a 52% disapproval number, that is close to what he could get. Match-ups typically lag approval ratings. Trump needs about 45% support at the minimum at this stage to have a good chance of re-election barring some spectacular achievement.

The incumbent Republican Senator up for re-election is behind her challenger, and three of four House seats are likely to remain D (the other one is in a Safe R district, and probably safer after the primary defeat of Representative Steve King, who makes politics about as gruesome as some of the author's novels.  

I have chosen to put this poll with the Hendrix College poll of Arkansas. Arkansas and Iowa have little in common except being similarly rural and being on the right bank of the Mississippi River. Strange things happen in landslide elections. Arkansas is a surprise to me; Iowa isn't.

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX can vote to the left of FL due to fact Mexicans are far more liberal due to immigration reform than Cubans. Also, IA is Lean R

[GeorgiaModerate]

State polls conducted by TIPP for American Greatness SuperPAC (R), June 9-11.


Michigan: 907 RV

Approve 38
Disapprove 55

Biden 50, Trump 37 (among 859 LV: Biden 51, Trump 38)


Florida: 910 RV

Approve 42
Disapprove 52

Biden 50, Trump 40 (among 875 LV: Biden 51, Trump 40)

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Mexico: PPP, June 12-13, 740 RV

Approve 37
Disapprove 55

Biden 53, Trump 39

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia: PPP, June 12-13, 661 RV

Approve 44
Disapprove 47

Biden 48, Trump 46

Ossoff 45, Perdue 44

[pbrower2a]

TX can vote to the left of FL due to fact Mexicans are far more liberal due to immigration reform than Cubans. Also, IA is Lean R

On the other hand, the more despotic or dictatorial he gets, the more Donald Trump reminds Cuban-Americans of someone that most of them despise:



which has nothing to do with a left-right divide.

[pbrower2a]

State polls conducted by TIPP for American Greatness SuperPAC (R), June 9-11.


Michigan: 907 RV

Approve 38
Disapprove 55

Biden 50, Trump 37 (among 859 LV: Biden 51, Trump 38)


Florida: 910 RV

Approve 42
Disapprove 52

Biden 50, Trump 40 (among 875 LV: Biden 51, Trump 40)

Michigan looks really solid for Biden.  Trump may not be the biggest disappointment in Michigan (the Detroit Cocker Spaniels baseball team and the Detroit Wrecked Wings hockey team are bigger disappointments to Michiganders)... but get disapproval in the 55% range and you are looking at a double-digit loss in November.

The 50-40 split in the match-up between Biden and Trump suggests much the same, although I usually suggest that voting tends to go among the undecided ineffectively toward the eventual loser

52% disapproval for the incumbent President at this stage is nearly impossible to shake. At that number I can imagine Florida being called for Biden before the states on the West Coast are.

50% is a definitive win in any state.

New Mexico: PPP, June 12-13, 740 RV

Approve 37
Disapprove 55

Biden 53, Trump 39

No real surprise here except for the extreme level of disapproval. New Mexico could be decided by a high-teens margin.

Georgia: PPP, June 12-13, 661 RV

Approve 44
Disapprove 47

Biden 48, Trump 46

Ossoff 45, Perdue 44

 

More credible than the Arkansas poll that suggested that Trump had 50% disapproval in Arkansas (although he would win the match-up if nothing else changed).

....between polls in states as diverse as Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, and New Mexico, I see signs of a blue wave (OK, Atlas Red).

My suggestion for Trump supporters on Election Night: Turner Classic Movies rarely disappoints, at least if hockey or basketball is not yet being played. I no longer have cable, and Turner Classic Movies is the cable channel I most miss.  

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds arent winning AR, but AK is more winnable due to Senate race

[pbrower2a]

Ds arent winning AR, but AK is more winnable due to Senate race

The only way in which the Democrats win Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, or West Virginia (states that Bill Clinton won twice but that Barack Obama lost by double-digit margins in both 2008 and 2012) is if the political orientations of those states revert to what they were in the 1990's. Such is unlikely for any one of those states. These states are not undergoing demographic change likely to swing them D as is so in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, or Texas.

I have no polling data on Alaska. This said, Trump promised much to the fossil-fuels industry and has delivered little. Alaska depends heavily upon fossil fuels (meaning, of course, oil).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds arent winning AR, but AK is more winnable due to Senate race

The only way in which the Democrats win Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, or West Virginia (states that Bill Clinton won twice but that Barack Obama lost by double-digit margins in both 2008 and 2012) is if the political orientations of those states revert to what they were in the 1990's. Such is unlikely for any one of those states. These states are not undergoing demographic change likely to swing them D as is so in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, or Texas.

I have no polling data on Alaska. This said, Trump promised much to the fossil-fuels industry and has delivered little. Alaska depends heavily upon fossil fuels (meaning, of course, oil).

AK uses its oil revenues and give its residents 1K a month, UBI benefits just like the stimulus money that was given to consumers in April. That's why it's a battleground that Murkowski created.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, June 10-16, 4426 adults

Approve 38
Disapprove 57

Biden 48, Trump 35

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, June 14-16, 1500 adults including 1160 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (-2)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

Strongly approve 22 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+3)


RV:

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 55 (-1)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 48 (+1)

Biden 50 (+1), Trump 41 (nc)

GCB: D 49 (+2), R 40 (+1)

[woodley park]

This is the first time Biden has hit 50 in YouGov, correct?

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is the first time Biden has hit 50 in YouGov, correct?

Yes.

[GP270watch]

 Trump's numbers will go up/come home on culture war issues. This is why Democrats need to focus on turnout.

[President Johnson]

Trump's numbers will go up/come home on culture war issues. This is why Democrats need to focus on turnout.

Well, when Trump stood on Lafayette Square with a bible in his hand and said how nice the police cut into protesters like it was "butter", it didn't work out that well. These culture wars may energize some of his base, but he needs a couple of swing voters. The economy may have been a compelling argument here, but this has also gone away. I agree, however, Democrats must maximize turnout through offering a different vision.

[pbrower2a]

...another utility, and a new one.


Nate Silver
✔
@NateSilver538
Elasticity ratings for 2020! Elasticity scores reflect how much a state’s polls would be expected to change based on a change in national. e.g. if Idaho’s elasticity score is 1.1, a 5-point swing in national polls would be expected to produce a 1.1 x 5 = 5.5-point swing in Idaho.





New Hampshire is the most elastic of states in its voting, so at an elasticity of 1.29, a 5% change in the vote would move New Hampshire an estimated 6.45% Among states, Mississippi is least elastic at 0.79%, so a 5% swing in the national vote would move Mississippi a mere 3.95%.

Exactly even is Indiana, which is something of a surprise in view of 2004-2008-2012, 10% shifts both times. Kentucky is also even.