Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[woodley park]

It is like Trump bragging about just hitting 50% approval in a total BS Rasmussen poll. It just underscores his weakness.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Trump pumping some strong swing states numbers. That’s all that matters!

[emailking]

Trump pumping some strong swing states numbers. That’s all that matters!

If he loses Texas it doesn't.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Trump pumping some strong swing states numbers. That’s all that matters!

If he loses Texas it doesn't.

Hahahahaha he won’t lose Texas! Especially when it comes to law and order. Come on, now. You know this.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News state polls, May 30-June 2.

Arizona (1002 RV):

Approve 46 (strongly 28)
Disapprove 52 (strongly 41)

Biden 46, Trump 42


Ohio (803 RV):

Approve 50 (strongly 29)
Disapprove 48 (strongly 40)

Biden 45, Trump 43


Wisconsin (801 RV):

Approve 45 (strongly 27)
Disapprove 54 (strongly 45)

Biden 49, Trump 40

[emailking]

Hahahahaha he won’t lose Texas! Especially when it comes to law and order. Come on, now. You know this.

Oh my bad.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Fox News state polls, May 30-June 2.

Arizona (1002 RV):

Approve 46 (strongly 28)
Disapprove 52 (strongly 41)

Biden 46, Trump 42


Ohio (803 RV):

Approve 50 (strongly 29)
Disapprove 48 (strongly 40)

Biden 45, Trump 43


Wisconsin (801 RV):

Approve 45 (strongly 27)
Disapprove 54 (strongly 45)

Biden 49, Trump 40

Trump pumping some strong swing states numbers. That’s all that matters!

So much for that...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), June 1-2, 1113 adults including 964 RV

Adults:

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Strongly approve 23 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+2)

Virus response: Approve 40 (-1), Disapprove 54 (+1)

Biden 42 (+1), Trump 35 (-2)


RV:

Approve 40 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+2)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+1)

Biden 47 (+2), Trump 37 (-2)

[Frodo]

For my fellow Democrats fidgeting over the fact Trump is still hovering at just over 40% despite everything that has happened, consider the fact that during the Democratic landslides of 1932 and 1964, Herbert Hoover and Barry Goldwater (respectively) managed to win just under 40% of the popular vote while suffering crushing defeat in the electoral college.   1936 was an even bigger landslide for Franklin D. Roosevelt than 1932, and the Republican nominee still won 36.5% of the popular vote.  There will always be a hard core of supporters for any presidential nominee, and Donald Trump is no different.    

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

For my fellow Democrats fidgeting over the fact Trump is still hovering at just over 40% despite everything that has happened, consider the fact that during the Democratic landslides of 1932 and 1964, Herbert Hoover and Barry Goldwater (respectively) managed to win just under 40% of the popular vote while suffering crushing defeat in the electoral college.   1936 was an even bigger landslide for Franklin D. Roosevelt than 1932, and the Republican nominee still won 36.5% of the popular vote.  There will always be a hard core of supporters for any presidential nominee, and Donald Trump is no different.    

Sorry to burst your bubble but Trump will get at least 45% in the election. Now 45% will see him lose, of course - even in the EC. But thinking the bottom will fall? No chance. Different era. (1932 is not far from 100 years ago. Really? Come on, man).

[GeorgiaModerate]

CBS News/SSRS, May 29-June 2, 1309 adults (change from late Jan.)

Approve 40 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (+3)

[pbrower2a]

CBS News/SSRS, May 29-June 2, 1309 adults (change from late Jan.)

Approve 40 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (+3)

Not so long ago that sort of result was typical in Colorado or Virginia, states that went about 5% against Trump (there were no others in that range). Nationwide? Tsk, tsk.

[GeorgiaModerate]

North Carolina: PPP, June 2-3, 949 voters

Approve 45
Disapprove 50

Biden 49, Trump 45

Cunningham 43, Tillis 41

Cooper 50, Forest 39

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well, PPP have discounted another round of bad Change Research polling, NC is leaning Biden. Change Research and PA numbers should not be taken seriously,  Rs keep using those numbers,  thinking PA is really in play and PA has gone D since 1992, except for 2016, when Bloomberg campaigned for Pat Toomey against a weak McGinty opponent

[Person Man]

CBS News/SSRS, May 29-June 2, 1309 adults (change from late Jan.)

Approve 40 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (+3)

Not so long ago that sort of result was typical in Colorado or Virginia, states that went about 5% against Trump (there were no others in that range). Nationwide? Tsk, tsk.

My guess is that maybe this election will get stuck in this range and this will be the first time in forever where a reelection effort fails but not spectacularly because of the unique circumstances. There's that or that the median voter theory I've been somewhat predicting is true and median voters will uniformly break towards the incumbent giving Trump a very small popular vote win  with him winning all the toss-up states, doing about as well as Obama did in 2012 or break against Trump and gives Biden an analog to 1996.
It collaborates the polls pretty well. Biden has a stable 5 point lead with 10% undecided. A late Trump break gives us a 2016 map, a late Biden break gives us a 2008 map, and a wash gives us a 2012 map.

[pbrower2a]

Just when you think that Texas has the big polling news of the day...

Trump pumping some strong swing states numbers. That’s all that matters!

.

Wishful thinking based upon polls released tonight in a swing state that seems to be swinging away from Trump tonight (Wisconsin), a "new" swing state (Arizona), and a state that seems to have lost its reputation as a swing state but is so again (Ohio), and one that has been quite close in the last three Presidential elections (North Carolina). When Texas is close, a bunch of other states are slipping away from Trump:  

Fox News state polls, May 30-June 2.

Arizona (1002 RV):

Approve 46 (strongly 28)
Disapprove 52 (strongly 41)

Biden 46, Trump 42


Ohio (803 RV):

Approve 50 (strongly 29)
Disapprove 48 (strongly 40)

Biden 45, Trump 43


Wisconsin (801 RV):

Approve 45 (strongly 27)
Disapprove 54 (strongly 45)

Biden 49, Trump 40

Updated for another swing state:

North Carolina: PPP, June 2-3, 949 voters

Approve 45
Disapprove 50

Biden 49, Trump 45

Cunningham 43, Tillis 41

Cooper 50, Forest 39

Trump pumping some strong swing states numbers. That’s all that matters!

So much for that...

The match-ups are even uglier than approval numbers for the President.  With the current disapproval numbers, Trump will need major changes in how voters perceive him to win Arizona, let alone Wisconsin. When Ohio is iffy, then Michigan and Pennsylvania are gone for the President.

No, the color is not wrong for Texas. Trump disapproval is exactly 50% there.  

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[pbrower2a]

CBS News/SSRS, May 29-June 2, 1309 adults (change from late Jan.)

Approve 40 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (+3)

Not so long ago that sort of result was typical in Colorado or Virginia, states that went about 5% against Trump (there were no others in that range). Nationwide? Tsk, tsk.

My guess is that maybe this election will get stuck in this range and this will be the first time in forever where a reelection effort fails but not spectacularly because of the unique circumstances. There's that or that the median voter theory I've been somewhat predicting is true and median voters will uniformly break towards the incumbent giving Trump a very small popular vote win  with him winning all the toss-up states, doing about as well as Obama did in 2012 or break against Trump and gives Biden an analog to 1996.

I am wary of predicting any dynamic in the direction of polling. I don't do it.  This time in 2008 the Republican Party seemed to have a good chance of winning the Presidency.

With the poll of Wisconsin I see Iowa swinging sharply D from 2016 because Iowa has demographics similar to those of Wisconsin. Of course, I don't say that such is happening because the most recent poll of Iowa showed Trump with a slight lead. Iowa will have a hot Senate race, so I expect polls of Iowa. Ohio didn't get polled much but just did. Where are the polls of Georgia?

A crude estimation of the vote involving an incumbent is to figure that the undecided vote for meaningless third-party nominees, that the incumbent gets his approval and that the challenger gets the incumbent's disapproval number. 54-40-6? Or, as I am tempted to do, assume that the undecided go ineffectively toward the eventual loser... in which case  my style would be to assume that 2% of the vote goes to third-party nominees, and the other 4% splits 3-1 for Trump because the undecided are clearly on the Right side of the political spectrum. That would be 55-43-2.

That is about where I would expect Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, or Virginia, the electorally-large states closest to the 2016 average to end up if the Presidential election were being held today.

This is what the map would look like:

Dark shades are for wins by 8% or more (twice the usual margin of error)
Medium shades are for wins by 4% to 8% (outside the usual margin of error)
Light shades are for wins under 4% or less (inside the usual margin of error)
White is for states not called by 6AM on Wednesday

Utah is blank because Third Party pols could figure in heavily in this state. Trump is an extreme affront to Mormon values, and not for drinking lots of Diet Coke.

OK -- so what is the problem with this map? Most obviously the election is not within a week. 

[Badger]

Fox News state polls, May 30-June 2.

Arizona (1002 RV):

Approve 46 (strongly 28)
Disapprove 52 (strongly 41)

Biden 46, Trump 42


Ohio (803 RV):

Approve 50 (strongly 29)
Disapprove 48 (strongly 40)

Biden 45, Trump 43


Wisconsin (801 RV):

Approve 45 (strongly 27)
Disapprove 54 (strongly 45)

Biden 49, Trump 40

God damn it Ohio. What the f*** is wrong with you?

[Badger]

For my fellow Democrats fidgeting over the fact Trump is still hovering at just over 40% despite everything that has happened, consider the fact that during the Democratic landslides of 1932 and 1964, Herbert Hoover and Barry Goldwater (respectively) managed to win just under 40% of the popular vote while suffering crushing defeat in the electoral college.   1936 was an even bigger landslide for Franklin D. Roosevelt than 1932, and the Republican nominee still won 36.5% of the popular vote.  There will always be a hard core of supporters for any presidential nominee, and Donald Trump is no different.    

Big difference though. Approval is by no means a floor for electoral support. Trump did very well among voters who disapprove both he and Clinton. I don't think he will score nearly as well among such voters this time around, first because it's much harder to say after the last four years that he is in fact the lesser of two evils, plus he's running against Joe Biden instead of someone as divisive is Hillary Clinton. However, he is still going to score several points in the election above what his approval rating is. And don't forget how he was able to Cobble together an electoral college majority with just under 46% of the popular vote.

I don't think I can feel safe about this election until they call Wisconsin and Arizona- - unless we've hit a major blowout and Biden by that point has already won States like North Carolina or Florida - - and even then if it's a close election I won't be satisfied till the Electoral College votes and we don't suffer any faithless electors like last time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Vermont: We Ask America, June 2-3, 500 LV

Approve 27
Disapprove 72

On the other extreme, Republican Governor Phil Scott has an 82/14 approval rating (not a typo).

[Person Man]

For my fellow Democrats fidgeting over the fact Trump is still hovering at just over 40% despite everything that has happened, consider the fact that during the Democratic landslides of 1932 and 1964, Herbert Hoover and Barry Goldwater (respectively) managed to win just under 40% of the popular vote while suffering crushing defeat in the electoral college.   1936 was an even bigger landslide for Franklin D. Roosevelt than 1932, and the Republican nominee still won 36.5% of the popular vote.  There will always be a hard core of supporters for any presidential nominee, and Donald Trump is no different.    

Big difference though. Approval is by no means a floor for electoral support. Trump did very well among voters who disapprove both he and Clinton. I don't think he will score nearly as well among such voters this time around, first because it's much harder to say after the last four years that he is in fact the lesser of two evils, plus he's running against Joe Biden instead of someone as divisive is Hillary Clinton. However, he is still going to score several points in the election above what his approval rating is. And don't forget how he was able to Cobble together an electoral college majority with just under 46% of the popular vote.

I don't think I can feel safe about this election until they call Wisconsin and Arizona- - unless we've hit a major blowout and Biden by that point has already won States like North Carolina or Florida - - and even then if it's a close election I won't be satisfied till the Electoral College votes and we don't suffer any faithless electors like last time.

I would like to see them try to have a coup like that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

IBD/TIPP, May 31-June 3, 1233 adults including 964 RV (change from late April)

Adults:

Approve 38 (-6)
Disapprove 51 (+7)

Virus response: Approve 38 (-3), Disapprove 46 (+7)


RV:

Approve 42 (-6)
Disapprove 52 (+6)

Biden 45 (+2), Trump 42 (-1)


This pollster has been pretty good for Trump up to now.

[pbrower2a]

And now for some comic relief:

Vermont: We Ask America, June 2-3, 500 LV

Approve 27
Disapprove 72

On the other extreme, Republican Governor Phil Scott has an 82/14 approval rating (not a typo).

84, years ago, in the 46-state landslide of FDR over Alf Landon, Vermont was one of two states that went for Landon. Landon got only eight electoral votes. Oh, how times have changed! The great and compelling mystery of the 2020 election is resolved for us all!

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Today polls is a yoyo effect and it's not Biden plus 10, its Biden plus 3. People arent donating to Biden, or natl Dems online die to fact 1. BIDEN cant fundraise like Bernie and 2 COVID 19.

Most of the Dems donated online in the primaries and refuse to do so again, due to COVID 19

[GeorgiaModerate]

Øptimus Coronavirus tracker (twice weekly), May 26-June 2, 917 adults including 795 LV

Adults:

Approve 37 (-3)
Disapprove 63 (+3)

Strongly approve 19 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+1)

Virus response: Approve 42 (-1), Disapprove 58 (+1)

Biden 43 (-2), Trump 35 (-2)


LV:

Approve 45 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (nc)

Strongly approve 26 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-1)

Virus response: Approve 46 (nc), Disapprove 54 (nc)

Biden 51 (+1), Trump 44 (-1)