Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[woodley park]

I wonder how much longer is it going to take for Trump's approval rating to crash back below 40%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Trump supporters think the Pandemic is over, that's why they keep saying, despite his poll numbers, he still will win. It's not over

[pbrower2a]

Handling of COVID-19:

In your opinion, has President Trump handled the coronavirus crisis well? (yes - no - don't know/no response)

Arizona  40-51-9
North Carolina 40-49-11
Florida 41-49-10
Pennsylvania 37-53-10
Michigan 37-53-10
Wisconsin 35-55-10

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/the-story-in-six-swing-states/

This is a British pollster.

Because the Plague of 2010 is the big story of the Trump Administration, performance on COVID-19, this is a good proxy for overall approval. Even the erratic foreign policy, the President's expressions of bigotry, and "the economy"  are now on the back burner due to COVID-19.  If the economy stays in the tank, then such will have an indelible link to COVID-19.

This may be worse than the colors look because Trump approval in every one of these states is under 42%. The true tragedy of the Plague of 2020 has yet to hit many of us because unless we are medical personnel we rarely see people dying of it. People die of COVID-19  in private, unlike the case with something non-contagious such as cirrhosis, cancer, Parkinsonism, Alzheimer's, or congestive heart failure. In the last eight years I have seen seven people on the second-to-last or last days of their lives in knowledge that those people were dying. But all of those cases did not involve any contagious disease.

The full impact of COVID-19 will not affect people's thoughts until many of the funeral services delayed due to limited numbers of participants are held without such constraints. People will be asking to see death certificates

What is so bad about 41% approval? Late in May it is next to impossible to win re-election as an incumbent unless one already has 45% support by then. Trump might have gotten away with numbers like these in December or January, but as the season warms up, opinions typically fossilize in a contest of vision. Things can go terribly wrong with an incumbent -- a breaking scandal or an inept response to a natural disaster. COVID-19 is a natural disaster. Trump has been lucky until COVID-19 struck.    

MINNESOTA:

Minnesota Poll: Biden holds small lead over Trump in 2020 presidential race
By Patrick Condon Star Tribune MAY 24, 2020 — 12:17PM


Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a small lead over President Donald Trump among registered voters in Minnesota, according to the first presidential poll in the state since the Democrat clinched his party’s nomination.

A new Minnesota Poll conducted by the Star Tribune, MPR News and KARE 11, found Biden ahead of Trump 49% to 44% in the general election matchup less than six months ahead of Election Day. Biden fell just short of a majority, but 7% of Minnesotans said they are still undecided.

The poll also found that statewide, 53% of voters disapprove of the Republican incumbent’s job performance as president, compared to 45% who approve. Only 2% were undecided about Trump, reflecting a high degree of polarization heading into the fall election season.

https://www.startribune.com/minnesota-poll-biden-holds-small-lead-over-trump-in-2020-presidential-race/570709192/

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[pbrower2a]

Lichtman test, May 25, 2020:

1.    Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2.    Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3.   Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4.    Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5.    Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6.    Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7.    Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8.    Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9.    Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10.    Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11.    Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12.   Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13.   Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Keys favoring the President:

2. I saw about 10% of the primary vote for the GOP go to William Weld in New Hampshire, suggesting that there is major dissent within the Party, but due to the winner-take-all  reality of Republican conventions, that has gone nowhere. I had that as a key having turned against Trump early. It has turned back. There may be significant dissent against Trump among Republicans, but that will have to turn up as "Republicans for Biden".  
3. Trump is the incumbent, but even if something happens to him I expect Pence to be the GOP nominee.
4. The biggest challenge so far is Don "Kill miners through negligence and reap a profit" Blankenship.


Keys turned against him:

1. The 2018 midterm election demonstrates how unpopular he can be. Look at the statewide totals for Congressional votes, and Biden wins 291 electoral votes.
5. We are now in recession while the campaign is going on.
6. I had this as an unfair flip against Trump because Obama could reap the advantages of an economy growing its way out of a severe recession. The Obama boom is undeniably over. This flip is now fair.
7. It is tax cuts and regulatory relaxation on behalf of the Master Class of a plutocratic order and nothing else. So he rewards his supporters? Big deal!
8. Trump baits Americans to do violence or trivializes the effects. A President might not put the lid on it all, but he can make clear that horrific deeds result in prosecution.
9. This is the most scandal-plagued Presidency in American history.
10. COVID-19 is a military or diplomatic disaster.
11. How's the friendship with North Korea playing out?
12. Trump is a wreck.

Ambiguity:

13. Challenger charisma. Your call.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1264953881395675138

It will be interesting to see if this holds up.  Rasmussen sometimes gets a weird sample that throws off their rolling average for a few days.

[Gustaf]

538 has net disapproval back in double digits now.

I think this is a strongly bad sign for Trump. If a clear majority disapproves of him, his challenger is pretty inoffensive to most voters and there is no significant 3rd party splitting the vote, it's hard to see him pull it out.

[pbrower2a]

Missouri: We Ask America

With the caveats:

1. This pollster is new to this electoral cycle
2. It is polling in the middle of a week, which is unusual.
3. It is favorability and not approval.
4. We have few polls of Missouri.

In this state, Trump is ahead of Biden only 48-44. Trump crushed Hillary Clinton 57-38 in 2016. He is up 52-46 in favorability, which in most states is a good proxy for approval.  


http://www.weaskamerica.com/surveys/missouri-statewide-general-election-survey-results

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[Person Man]

538 has net disapproval back in double digits now.

I think this is a strongly bad sign for Trump. If a clear majority disapproves of him, his challenger is pretty inoffensive to most voters and there is no significant 3rd party splitting the vote, it's hard to see him pull it out.

Nihilism and identity politics saves the day again. That's what Republicans thought in 2012.

[GeorgiaModerate]

New York: Siena, May 17-21, 796 RV

How would you rate the job that Donald Trump is doing as President?

Excellent 14
Good 16
Fair 19
Poor 50

Approval of Trump's virus response: Approve 35, Disapprove 61

Approval of Gov. Cuomo's virus response: Approve 76, Disapprove 21

2020 matchup: Biden 57, Trump 32

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rasmussen has Trump at 42/57 today, his worst showing since December 2017.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, May 23-26, 1500 adults including 1157 RV

Adults:

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 50 (nc)

Strongly approve 25 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 38 (nc)

Virus response: Approve 45 (+3), Disapprove 50 (nc)


RV:

Approve 45 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

Strongly approve 28 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-1)

Virus response: Approve 45 (+2), Disapprove 52 (-2)

Biden 45 (-2), Trump 42 (nc)

GCB: D 47 (nc), R 39 (+1)

[pbrower2a]

Because COVID-19 is the big news story and influences almost everything, and because it so intertwines with political and economic life, the President's approval on it alone is a valid proxy for overall approval and disapproval.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), May 20-27, 4429 adults including 3732 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 23 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (-1)

Virus response: Approve 41 (-1), Disapprove 53 (+1)
 
Biden 41 (-2), Trump 37 (+2)


RV:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 55 (nc)

Strongly approve 25 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-1)

Biden 45 (-2), Trump 39 (+1)

[Progressive Pessimist]

Because COVID-19 is the big news story and influences almost everything, and because it so intertwines with political and economic life, the President's approval on it alone is a valid proxy for overall approval and disapproval.

I can see that, though there continue to be a percentage of people who approve of him yet disapprove of his handling of the virus...which is just horrifically baffling!

[woodley park]

And now the administration will not be releasing economic projections, in order to stem further erosion in his support on the economy. How much longer until the integrity of the monthly jobs report is also compromised? Who here really expects Trump is OK with a monthly report showing Great Depression-era unemployment regularly peppering his re-election campaign? Even if such reports continue to get issued, I'd bet a fafillion dollars that Trump is trying to corrupt the report behind the scenes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is on a path to 80 EC votes and Rs are likely be down 58 to 42 seats in the Senate.

Not having press briefings and McConnell only having hearings on judges and Pence and Jerome Adam's hibernating, after Pence said by Memorial day, COVID 19 will be over; consequently, Trump doesnt have anymore answers 🤩🤩🤩

MO has Trump only ahead by 4, if MO is that close, it's over for Trump, Obama won a landslide In 2012 when he lost MO by 11 and IN by 9

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Because COVID-19 is the big news story and influences almost everything, and because it so intertwines with political and economic life, the President's approval on it alone is a valid proxy for overall approval and disapproval.

I can see that, though there continue to be a percentage of people who approve of him yet disapprove of his handling of the virus...which is just horrifically baffling!

Why is it baffling that people base their assessments on more than one issue, even if it is the single largest issue at the present?

I personally think Trump has done a horrible job on virtually very aspect of his job. 

But in 1968, I can imagine a lot of liberals saying they disapproved of LBJ’s handling of the Vietnam War but approved of his presidency overall.

[pbrower2a]

Because COVID-19 is the big news story and influences almost everything, and because it so intertwines with political and economic life, the President's approval on it alone is a valid proxy for overall approval and disapproval.

I can see that, though there continue to be a percentage of people who approve of him yet disapprove of his handling of the virus...which is just horrifically baffling!

Why is it baffling that people base their assessments on more than one issue, even if it is the single largest issue at the present?

I personally think Trump has done a horrible job on virtually very aspect of his job. 

But in 1968, I can imagine a lot of liberals saying they disapproved of LBJ’s handling of the Vietnam War but approved of his presidency overall.

President Trump got away with much until COVID-19 because the other stuff didn't hurt people. COVID-19 kills on a large scale. It is killing Americans faster than the Axis demons did. Yet the President praises himself and ridicules anyone able to get Americans to put life over economic activity.

Let's put it this way: I consider catching COVID-19 on par with driving drunk, using street drugs, or being in combat. The first two are pointless and inexcusable; the third at least allows some heroism and may have some noble purpose.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Because COVID-19 is the big news story and influences almost everything, and because it so intertwines with political and economic life, the President's approval on it alone is a valid proxy for overall approval and disapproval.

I can see that, though there continue to be a percentage of people who approve of him yet disapprove of his handling of the virus...which is just horrifically baffling!

Why is it baffling that people base their assessments on more than one issue, even if it is the single largest issue at the present?

I personally think Trump has done a horrible job on virtually very aspect of his job.  

But in 1968, I can imagine a lot of liberals saying they disapproved of LBJ’s handling of the Vietnam War but approved of his presidency overall.

Bush W was Gov of TX, every Prez were politicians before they were Prez; consequently,  Trump was never a triangulatir due to fact he was never a politician. Bush W, Reagan and Clinton and Obama were politicians. That's why Trump will  lose, he isnt a compromiser, the first 2 yrs, he had R domination,  but 2010 are gone, and voters will have Dems governing at least one branch of govt.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Because COVID-19 is the big news story and influences almost everything, and because it so intertwines with political and economic life, the President's approval on it alone is a valid proxy for overall approval and disapproval.

I can see that, though there continue to be a percentage of people who approve of him yet disapprove of his handling of the virus...which is just horrifically baffling!

Why is it baffling that people base their assessments on more than one issue, even if it is the single largest issue at the present?

I personally think Trump has done a horrible job on virtually very aspect of his job. 

But in 1968, I can imagine a lot of liberals saying they disapproved of LBJ’s handling of the Vietnam War but approved of his presidency overall.

But with Trump his cult of personality, partisanship, and tribalism overcome so much logic and reason among his base that I didn't expect them to ever even admit to disapproving of one of one his actions. It's a lot different than with any other President and the missteps they may have made.

[wbrocks67]

Civiqs 5/26

Trump overall approval: 42/55 (-13)

Arizona: 42/56 (-14)
Colorado: 38/59 (-21)
Florida: 46/51 (-5)
Georgia: 45/51 (-6)
Iowa: 47/51 (-4)
Michigan: 42/55 (-13)
Minnesota: 41/57 (-16)
Montana: 50/48 (+2)
Nevada: 39/58 (-19)
New Hampshire: 38/57 (-19)
New Mexico: 47/50 (-3)
North Carolina: 45/53 (-8)
Ohio: 49/48 (+1)
Pennsylvania: 44/52 (-8)
South Carolina: 51/47 (+4)
Texas: 49/48 (+1)
Virginia: 39/58 (-19)
Wisconsin: 45/53 (-8)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

Still a weird sample from NM

[ajc0918]

Civiqs 5/26

Trump overall approval: 42/55 (-13)

Arizona: 42/56 (-14)
Colorado: 38/59 (-21)
Florida: 46/51 (-5)
Georgia: 45/51 (-6)
Iowa: 47/51 (-4)
Michigan: 42/55 (-13)
Minnesota: 41/57 (-16)
Montana: 50/48 (+2)
Nevada: 39/58 (-19)
New Hampshire: 38/57 (-19)
New Mexico: 47/50 (-3)
North Carolina: 45/53 (-8)
Ohio: 49/48 (+1)
Pennsylvania: 44/52 (-8)
South Carolina: 51/47 (+4)
Texas: 49/48 (+1)
Virginia: 39/58 (-19)
Wisconsin: 45/53 (-8)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

Still a weird sample from NM

Arizona numbers here are surprising.

[wbrocks67]

Oof - BK Strategies (R internal) has new poll out that only has Trump's favorables at 49/48 in INDIANA:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200529_IN.pdf

[pbrower2a]

Missouri: We Ask America

With the caveats:

1. This pollster is new to this electoral cycle
2. It is polling in the middle of a week, which is unusual.
3. It is favorability and not approval.
4. We have few polls of Missouri.

In this state, Trump is ahead of Biden only 48-44. Trump crushed Hillary Clinton 57-38 in 2016. He is up 52-46 in favorability, which in most states is a good proxy for approval.  


http://www.weaskamerica.com/surveys/missouri-statewide-general-election-survey-results

Also a favorability poll, this time of Indiana, and a Republican internal. We get so few polls of Indiana, so beggars can't be choosers.

Oof - BK Strategies (R internal) has new poll out that only has Trump's favorables at 49/48 in INDIANA:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200529_IN.pdf

   

If Indiana is within range according to a Republican internal poll, then Trump is in deep trouble. No Republican has won the Electoral College in any election (and their wins include the two elections in which Democrats won the popular vote but Republicans won the votes that mattered most in 2000 and 2016) without winning Indiana by double digits. That holds  this year.

Indiana going D this year indicates (Texas would put Biden at 413) that Biden is on course for about 425 electoral votes. It just keeps getting worse for Trump.

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[woodley park]

I don't think anyone actually expects Trump to lose Indiana, though 2008 shows us that crazy things can happen when the floor falls out beneath the economy. That said, if Indiana is close if likely means Trump is done in the broader Midwest.