Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[woodley park]

Call me crazy, but I fully expect further erosion in Trump's poll numbers because of his Obamagate push. Its just in incredibly poor taste to throw that out there in the midst of the pandemic. I don't see how hyping up Obamagate as the death toll start starts pushing 100,000 is going to help Trump with the seniors he'll need to win in less than 6 months.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Call me crazy, but I fully expect further erosion in Trump's poll numbers because of his Obamagate push. Its just in incredibly poor taste to throw that out there in the midst of the pandemic. I don't see how hyping up Obamagate as the death toll start starts pushing 100,000 is going to help Trump with the seniors he'll need to win in less than 6 months.

We'll see. Somehow it is the dumbest fabricated conspiracy he's attempted to will into existence yet as a way of denigrating his opponents. At least going after Hunter Biden and the Tara Reade allegation had some basis in reality. "Obamagate" is simply as idiotic as it is incomprehensible and vague.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It turns out that FL +6 poll was another University poll, Biden is gonna lose FL

[woodley park]

Call me crazy, but I fully expect further erosion in Trump's poll numbers because of his Obamagate push. Its just in incredibly poor taste to throw that out there in the midst of the pandemic. I don't see how hyping up Obamagate as the death toll start starts pushing 100,000 is going to help Trump with the seniors he'll need to win in less than 6 months.

We'll see. Somehow it is the dumbest fabricated conspiracy he's attempted to will into existence yet as a way of denigrating his opponents. At least going after Hunter Biden and the Tara Reade allegation had some basis in reality. "Obamagate" is simply as idiotic as it is incomprehensible and vague.

Americans have shown that they are willing to tolerate all sorts of idiocy when things are humming along. But they by and large barely showed tolerance for this type of behavior when things were going well (given his consistently unpopularity), so I can’t imagine it’s going to hold up well in this new context.

Also, olawakandi, pick a theory and stick to it please!

[wbrocks67]

If this is real, then Gallup is trash. I'm not sure what their new methodology is, but having Trump at +1 approval when he's at -7/8 nationally is embarrassing.

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1261378944164651008

[BudgieForce]

If this is real, then Gallup is trash. I'm not sure what their new methodology is, but having Trump at +1 approval when he's at -7/8 nationally is embarrassing.

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1261378944164651008

Gallup used to poll between 2,000 to 3,000 people over a 6 day period. But now they poll 1000 people over a 2 week period. It's not hard to come to the conclusion their polls might be less accurate.

Edit: That's just my opinion though.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Call me crazy, but I fully expect further erosion in Trump's poll numbers because of his Obamagate push. Its just in incredibly poor taste to throw that out there in the midst of the pandemic. I don't see how hyping up Obamagate as the death toll start starts pushing 100,000 is going to help Trump with the seniors he'll need to win in less than 6 months.

We'll see. Somehow it is the dumbest fabricated conspiracy he's attempted to will into existence yet as a way of denigrating his opponents. At least going after Hunter Biden and the Tara Reade allegation had some basis in reality. "Obamagate" is simply as idiotic as it is incomprehensible and vague.

Americans have shown that they are willing to tolerate all sorts of idiocy when things are humming along. But they by and large barely showed tolerance for this type of behavior when things were going well (given his consistently unpopularity), so I can’t imagine it’s going to hold up well in this new context.

Also, olawakandi, pick a theory and stick to it please!

Welcome to the forum!  Since you're new here, let me offer some advice: don't bother to argue or engage in constructive dialogue with the enigma that is olawakandi.  It just wastes your time and doesn't accomplish anything.

[pbrower2a]

If this is real, then Gallup is trash. I'm not sure what their new methodology is, but having Trump at +1 approval when he's at -7/8 nationally is embarrassing.

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1261378944164651008

Gallup used to poll between 2,000 to 3,000 people over a 6 day period. But now they poll 1000 people over a 2 week period. It's not hard to come to the conclusion their polls might be less accurate.

Edit: That's just my opinion though.

Landline only? No Spanish-language option? I don't know what methodology Gallup uses. English-language and landline only would be much more favorable to Trump as such would skew old and non-Hispanic.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If this is real, then Gallup is trash. I'm not sure what their new methodology is, but having Trump at +1 approval when he's at -7/8 nationally is embarrassing.

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1261378944164651008

Gallup used to poll between 2,000 to 3,000 people over a 6 day period. But now they poll 1000 people over a 2 week period. It's not hard to come to the conclusion their polls might be less accurate.

Edit: That's just my opinion though.

Landline only? No Spanish-language option? I don't know what methodology Gallup uses. English-language and landline only would be much more favorable to Trump as such would skew old and non-Hispanic.

Gallup is very transparent about their methodology.  This is from the full results PDF:

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 70% cell phone respondents and 30% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region. Landline and cell phone telephone numbers are selected using random digit dial methods. Gallup obtained sample for this study from Dynata. Landline respondents are
chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member has the next birthday.

Samples are weighted to correct for unequal selection probability, non-response, and double coverage of landline and cell users in the two sampling frames. They are also weighted to match the national demographics of gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, population density, and phone status (cell phone only/landline only/both and cell phone mostly). Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2018 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older U.S. population. Phone status targets are based on
the January-June 2018 National Health Interview Survey. Population density targets are based on the 2010 census. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting.

[BudgieForce]

Yeah, their methodology is sound. I just found it interesting how their polls have changed since the beginning of Trump's presidency. In theory, the changes Gallup made shouldn't effect Trump's numbers. However, its hard not to notice how their polling has gotten significantly friendlier to Trump since January when they did switch up their methods.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well the withdrawal of Amash does guarantee Biden victory. FL probably now goes D since 3rd parties does influence FL elections and MI and WI goes D. That's all Biden needs

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, their methodology is sound. I just found it interesting how their polls have changed since the beginning of Trump's presidency. In theory, the changes Gallup made shouldn't effect Trump's numbers. However, its hard not to notice how their polling has gotten significantly friendlier to Trump since January when they did switch up their methods.

I feel like someone looked into the crosstabs and found a lobsided Republican sample a few months go when they first started showing Trump with major gains so I wouldn't be surprised if that was it too.

Not to mention, if that tweet is correct and their 18-34 sample has Trump at nearly 50% approval. Like cmon now.

[wbrocks67]

Found the Gallup crosstabs:

White: 57/41
Nonwhte: 34/62
18-34: 45/51
35-54: 47/49
55+: 53/46
Indies: 46/48

Clearly the White and Nonwhites are way too high, and the 18-34 section is a joke.

[Inmate Trump]

Found the Gallup crosstabs:

White: 57/41
Nonwhte: 34/62
18-34: 45/51
35-54: 47/49
55+: 53/46
Indies: 46/48

Clearly the White and Nonwhites are way too high, and the 18-34 section is a joke.

Why would they poll like this?

I mean, are those demographics proportionate to the population make-up across the country?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As expected Biden is now pulling away since Amash has dropped out

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

As expected Biden is now pulling away since Amash has dropped out

It's literally been a day....do you even pay attention to what you say?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

As expected Biden is now pulling away since Amash has dropped out

It's literally been a day....do you even pay attention to what you say?

It’s annoying when you mute a terrible poster but still have to read all his posts because someone always takes the bait and replies.

[Dr. Arch]

As expected Biden is now pulling away since Amash has dropped out

It's literally been a day....do you even pay attention to what you say?

It’s annoying when you mute a terrible poster but still have to read all his posts because someone always takes the bait and replies.

Use super ignore. One of the best features that was recently added to the forum.

Note: I personally love OC's posts, lol.

[YE]

Either appreciate his randomness or put him on ignore. Don’t derail threads.

[The Dowager Mod]

I know further abuse of the reporting feature will result in a permanent ban from this board.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems arent winning WVA, IN, MS or LA per MSN polls

[pbrower2a]

Dems arent winning WVA, IN, MS or LA per MSN polls

barring a monumental collapse which the MSN polling suggests is happening.

Media have an interest in maintaining the narrative that the 2020 election will be close... it is better for TV ratings and newspaper circulation. We can all understand this. Democratic activists and Republican activists have different reasons for suggesting that the election will be close; such is good for fund-raising.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We didnt all support Biden in the primary. Before the Reade allegations, Biden was a lock, to win a landslide,  but Bernie could have won a landslide. That's why I voted for Bernie in the primary
 Now, we see that Biden has flaws, Biden got a free pass on impeachment with Hunter Biden, and Ukraine, that's why he was able to sew up nomination so quickly.  I said that in this thread many times.

Hunter Biden apologized for it and Ron Johnson is gonna have a report in October

[pbrower2a]

Ron Johnson report? It wouldn't mean anything. He is one of the low lights of the GOP, which is saying much... the Louie Gohmert of the Senate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wasnt saying its gonna have a major impact, but Dems thinking its gonna be a landslide, and it's a VBM, AZ is there, the secure the Prez, in case WI is inconclusive.

Winning 4/4 Confederate state FL, NC, GA and TX is probably not realistic. That's why Dems made VA to replace WVA as a swing state