Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[pbrower2a]

If you will notice I have yet to open the category in dark blue because no state shows 55% approval for Trump. Kansas and Louisiana are the most likely candidates so far, and Trump is in the 50-54% category there. 

[pbrower2a]

New Mexico: PPP, April 20-21, 1009 voters

Approve 40
Disapprove 56

For virus handling, it's 40/55.

Biden 52, Trump 40 (but it's probably worse for Trump than that, as among the undecideds only 5% approve of Trump)

Biden blow-out in New Mexico. We see few polls of New Mexico, but this one leaves no doubt. New Mexico was on the fringe of contention in 2016. This poll bodes ill for Trump in Arizona and Texas, two absolute-must wins for Trump.

COVID-19 overpowers all else in American political consciousness, and Trump approval overall seems to be close to the marks that he gets for handling the plague. This is before he suggested that people could drink or ingest disinfectants, the latter the sort of thing that one might do by mistake -- if one is an IV drug user.     

New Mexico is a blue state.

Also, Democrats won all 11 major election races in NM in 2018.

New Mexico hasn't been close for Republicans in a Presidential race since 2004, of course, although it did vote for a Republican governor, which means little in Presidential races unless it is a question of controlling the electoral process. Had Scott Walker won re-election in Wisconsin I would still consider Wisconsin "Lean Republican" because Wisconsin is close. Trump must win Wisconsin without electoral aid by a Republican governor in not-so-legitimate means.

I consider 8% the fringe of competitiveness, indicating a State in which a Presidential nominee might be tempted to campaign. I see Trump likely to go through New Mexico without stopping on the way between Arizona and Texas. His plane will not stop in New Mexico.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KS is gonna trend Dem due to popularity of Gov Kelly and the fractious R party of Marshall and Kobach. It wont matter what Trump approvals R, Trump was popular in KS in 2018, too. KS is replacing IA as a Dem state

[wbrocks67]

Trump down to 42/56 (-14) in the Navigator tracker:

https://navigatorresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Navigator-Daily-Tracker-Topline-F04.24.20.pdf

[pbrower2a]

Trump down to 42/56 (-14) in the Navigator tracker:

https://navigatorresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Navigator-Daily-Tracker-Topline-F04.24.20.pdf

Not much worse than other polls from this source -- but where those polls were, they needed to be going in the other direction if Trump were to have a serious chance of winning the re-election.

I know, I know, I know... polls do not vote, and people do. The only poll that counts is the election, which of course is definitive. The politicians who float such optimism about their fading chances seem to lose most of the time. 56% disapproval is practically the graveyard for political hope. Pols can recover from low approval ratings, but not from high disapproval ratings.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is finished, he is all but guaranteed to lose MI/WI and PA. The other battleground states will be poll watching for Senate seats.  Trump will be a 1 ter m Prez, and his outing of the briefings just shows why Pence is such a bad Veep. Trump cant entrust his own Veep with Briefings

[wbrocks67]

Civiqs Trump Tracker (4/23)
Overall: 43/54 (-11)

Arizona: 43/55 (-12)
Colorado: 38/59 (-21)
Florida: 46/52 (-6)
Georgia: 45/51 (-6)
Iowa: 48/50 (-2)
Michigan: 44/53 (-9)
Minnesota: 44/53 (-9)
Montana: 48/50 (-2)
Nevada: 38/59 (-21)
New Hampshire: 39/56 (-17)
New Mexico: 45/52 (-7)
North Carolina: 45/53 (-8)
Ohio: 49/48 (+1)
Pennsylvania: 44/53 (-9)
South Carolina: 51/46 (+5)
Texas: 50/47 (+3)
Virginia: 40/58 (-18)
Wisconsin: 46/52 (-6)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&zoomIn=true

Interesting #s - especially Montana and SC.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Harrison has a chance since he has been out raising Graham

[woodley park]

Civiqs Trump Tracker (4/23)
Overall: 43/54 (-11)

Arizona: 43/55 (-12)
Colorado: 38/59 (-21)
Florida: 46/52 (-6)
Georgia: 45/51 (-6)
Iowa: 48/50 (-2)
Michigan: 44/53 (-9)
Minnesota: 44/53 (-9)
Montana: 48/50 (-2)
Nevada: 38/59 (-21)
New Hampshire: 39/56 (-17)
New Mexico: 45/52 (-7)
North Carolina: 45/53 (-8)
Ohio: 49/48 (+1)
Pennsylvania: 44/53 (-9)
South Carolina: 51/46 (+5)
Texas: 50/47 (+3)
Virginia: 40/58 (-18)
Wisconsin: 46/52 (-6)


Interesting #s - especially Montana and SC.

Looks like Ohio and Wisconsin are lagging behind the rest of the Rust Belt states in souring on Trump. Not too surprising I guess.

[Devout Centrist]

Betting Odds are firmly Trump.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/

Betting Odds are firmly Clinton.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Who cares, MI/PA/WI are gonna flip back to Dems, regardless what happens, Biden have substantial leads in them

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Betting Odds are firmly Trump.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/

That's because they expect 2020 to be a 2016 redux: Trump behind in the polls only to come up from behind and pull off a shocking win. Everyone expected Jeremy Corbyn to do the same in the UK because of what happened in 2017 and he got crushed instead.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Who cares, MI/PA/WI are gonna flip back to Dems, regardless what happens, Biden have substantial leads in them

Why do you continue to change your predictions on a whim? Why not formulate a belief and stick with it....? Just wondering.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Who cares, MI/PA/WI are gonna flip back to Dems, regardless what happens, Biden have substantial leads in them

Why do you continue to change your predictions on a whim? Why not formulate a belief and stick with it....? Just wondering.

I see you aren't very familiar with OC/Olawakandi...

[wbrocks67]

Civiqs Trump Tracker (4/23)
Overall: 43/54 (-11)

Arizona: 43/55 (-12)
Colorado: 38/59 (-21)
Florida: 46/52 (-6)
Georgia: 45/51 (-6)
Iowa: 48/50 (-2)
Michigan: 44/53 (-9)
Minnesota: 44/53 (-9)
Montana: 48/50 (-2)
Nevada: 38/59 (-21)
New Hampshire: 39/56 (-17)
New Mexico: 45/52 (-7)
North Carolina: 45/53 (-8)
Ohio: 49/48 (+1)
Pennsylvania: 44/53 (-9)
South Carolina: 51/46 (+5)
Texas: 50/47 (+3)
Virginia: 40/58 (-18)
Wisconsin: 46/52 (-6)


Interesting #s - especially Montana and SC.

Looks like Ohio and Wisconsin are lagging behind the rest of the Rust Belt states in souring on Trump. Not too surprising I guess.

I mean, Ohio voted for Trump by 9% so Trump +1 is a souring, I'd say

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Who cares, MI/PA/WI are gonna flip back to Dems, regardless what happens, Biden have substantial leads in them

Why do you continue to change your predictions on a whim? Why not formulate a belief and stick with it....? Just wondering.

I am not an R, I am an objective Democrat, whom thinks that Pelosi wants campaign donations more than governing. I lived in her city SF and she does nothing about the homelessness like Harris, but they wont give tax cuts to rich that's exacerbates the income inequality. I am from Cali and have lived in Orange, LA and SF

[pbrower2a]

Civiqs polls, all fifty states:

Trump disapproval  55% or higher
.........................  52% to 54% 50% saturation
.........................  50% or 51% 40% saturation
.........................  under 50% but higher than approval
ties (white)
Trump approval...  under 50% but higher than disapproval
.........................  50% to 54%  
.........................  over 55%

Note that I make no distinction above 55% approval or 55% disapproval because states in those categories will go 10% or so at the least one way or the other, and the distinction between 56% and 90% is moot in the Electoral College except for ME-02 or NE-02 not shown in this data. I make a distinction between 51% and 52% disapproval because disapproval at 52% suggests irretrievable loss, but 51% can be turned around (Obama did that once).


Closest states:

state APDS ?? GA 4551 4 IA 4850 3 MT 4850 2 OH 4948 3 TX 5047 3

There may be rounding errors. Ohio us a virtual tie. Approval and disapproval are both between 48.1 and 48.9 based on the "don't know" category. I'm calling that a tie because it implies a difference less than 1%.

From this map I would project a minor landslide for Biden of the type of Bill Clinton in the 1990's or Obama in 2008. Note that we have seen approvals under 55 for Trump in Kansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi... any erosion of the monolithic white vote for the GOP in the Deep South could bring about some surprises. It's my map and I will do what I want to.

I do not project a collapse until it really happens. I do not predict collapses or surges unless they happen. 

[Podgy the Bear]

Civiqs Trump Tracker (4/23)
Overall: 43/54 (-11)


Montana: 48/50 (-2)


https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&zoomIn=true

Interesting #s - especially Montana and SC.

I maintain the Democrats need to make a significant push for MT.  Lower price media state, and there can be enough impact to make it close and to give Steve Bullock a chance to take that Senate seat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The 2020 election clinches reapportionment for a decade for Dems and the last time there was a Recession Rs lost 9 Senate seats and lost all 3 branches of power. Bush W did have 25 percent approvals at the time of 2008, but Obama and Biden didnt run against Bush W, they ran against McCain in 2008, with Palin, he had 44 percent approvals, likewise in 2012, they ran against Romney whom had 46 percent approvals.  

This time Rs can lose 12 seats in a landslide in the Senate, even at Trump level approvals at 44 percent

[wbrocks67]

OHIO - Baldwin Wallace University

Trump approval: 49/49

26% strongly approve
38% strongly disapprove

https://www.bw.edu/Assets/community-research-institute/04-2020_ohio_poll%20release.pdf

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/nickgourevitch/status/1254734791544627202

[GeorgiaModerate]

Climate Nexus, April 19, 1917 RV

Trump approval:

Approve 45
Disapprove 52

Strongly approve 26
Strongly disapprove 40

2020: Biden 49, Trump 40

GCB: D 50, R 40

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Climate Nexus, April 19, 1917 RV

Trump approval:

Approve 45
Disapprove 52

Strongly approve 26
Strongly disapprove 40

2020: Biden 49, Trump 40

GCB: D 50, R 40

Once again, he's underperforming his approval rating.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1254622626036809729

[tagimaucia]

Climate Nexus, April 19, 1917 RV

Trump approval:

Approve 45
Disapprove 52

Strongly approve 26
Strongly disapprove 40

2020: Biden 49, Trump 40

GCB: D 50, R 40

Once again, he's underperforming his approval rating.

Based on the historical data that I've seen, favorable-unfavorable ratings are a bit more predictive of horserace #s and election outcomes than approval ratings. And Trump's net favorables tend to be just slightly worse than his approvals.