Chilean Elections and General Discussion. Municipal and Regional elections, October 27th, 2024

[kaoras]

What are the main proposals of the new counstition ?

I think this is a good summary. Run google translate.

https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2023/12/13/los-8-cambios-mas-polemicos-de-la-nueva-constitucion-que-se-sometera-a-plebiscito-este-domingo-en-chile/

[Lumine]

Welp, here we go.

There's a general agreement that polls have narrowed, but there is a striking divide between the (mostly) national pollsters who suggest "No" has a very comfortable lead, and should win by 5-10 points at least... and other less reputable pollsters (mostly non-Chile based) who claim "Yes" has actually inched into the lead.

Some of these did show correct results in 2022 and 2023 and seemed able to actually account for mandatory voting, which most national polling still struggles with, but it seems difficult to believe. Either group of polls is going to be made to look ridiculous tomorrow.

Hasn't been a good week for the government either (ongoing developments in corruption scandals, one of the 2019 protesters pardoned by President Boric got arrested on kidnapping charges, and so on), but it's hard to tell whether it changed things. All in all, "Yes" is banking on the plebiscite having become a simple referendum on the government, and "No" on general dissatisfaction with the proposal and of, ironically, being tired with the whole process.

Personally, I still think "No" wins, but I have to say I really have no idea what's about to happen. On the bright side, and unlike 2022, the future of the country is not really at stake, so that's a relief.

[skbl17]

Polls have closed. Official results are available here.

[kaoras]

The results that they are showing from Santiago are lopsided for "Against". In my hometown in Valdivia, the first precincts also show "Against" winning.

[Estrella]

So the results of the first referendum, the first constituyente, the second referendum, the second constituyente and now the third referendum are all a decisive "get fxcked"

[kaoras]

First results from Chile proper:

In favour 48%, Against 52%.

However, the first results for Santiago are disproportionally from district 11, el más facho. Against is winning the Metropolitan Region by "just" 54-46.

This website is better https://live.decidechile.cl/2023/plebiscito

[JimJamUK]

I think this is a good summary. Run google translate.

https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2023/12/13/los-8-cambios-mas-polemicos-de-la-nueva-constitucion-que-se-sometera-a-plebiscito-este-domingo-en-chile/

Compared to the current constitution, is the proposed one better from a left wing point of view (regardless of whether it’s what such people would have wanted before the 1st referendum)?

[Lumine]

Should be a No victory. Still, margins are up for debate.

[kaoras]

I think this is a good summary. Run google translate.

https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2023/12/13/los-8-cambios-mas-polemicos-de-la-nueva-constitucion-que-se-sometera-a-plebiscito-este-domingo-en-chile/

Compared to the current constitution, is the proposed one better from a left wing point of view (regardless of whether it’s what such people would have wanted before the 1st referendum)?

Absolutely not.

[Red Velvet]

So the results of the first referendum, the first constituyente, the second referendum, the second constituyente and now the third referendum are all a decisive "get fxcked"

I still don’t understand why voters need to be asked THREE TIMES to pass one change of constitution though. Two times was enough, the third is redundant and makes no sense.

First vote - You say whether you want a constitutional change (yes/no) - ok, makes sense

Second vote - You pick the representatives who will write said constitution in case yes wins - ok, makes sense

What’s the point of a third vote to simply reaffirm what’s already implicit through both the first two votes? That vote is what it creates this never-ending loop where if voters refuse the constitution the person they picked chose, at least one referendum decision will eventually have to be disrespected.

I suppose the excess of democracy is to make sure whatever is written is the most consensual as possible? In that case just come up with a bland generic small text that all sides can be ok with and get this over with.

[Mike88]

After the predictable "No" vote this time, what's next? The end of the whole idea of constitutional change?

[kaoras]

After the predictable "No" vote this time, what's next? The end of the whole idea of constitutional change?

Government parties promised to not touch the issue for a few years but is inevitable that it will resurface again eventually.

[kaoras]

Electoral geography looking weird. It looks like a 10 point margin, but Against is overperfoming Boric in the regions (specially in the south) and underperforming in Santiago

[Mike88]

54.20% counted:

55.16% Against
44.84% In favour

TV channels are now calling an "Against" victory.

After the predictable "No" vote this time, what's next? The end of the whole idea of constitutional change?

Government parties promised to not touch the issue for a few years but is inevitable that it will resurface again eventually.

When you mean "Government parties", do you mean left and right government parties, or just the current government?

[kaoras]

54.20% counted:

55.16% Against
44.84% In favour

TV channels are now calling an "Against" victory.

After the predictable "No" vote this time, what's next? The end of the whole idea of constitutional change?

Government parties promised to not touch the issue for a few years but is inevitable that it will resurface again eventually.

When you mean "Government parties", do you mean left and right government parties, or just the current government?

The current government. I get what you are referring to but nobody in Latin America uses the term in that way and you would struggle to explain to a layman the notion of volkspartei

[Mike88]

54.20% counted:

55.16% Against
44.84% In favour

TV channels are now calling an "Against" victory.

After the predictable "No" vote this time, what's next? The end of the whole idea of constitutional change?

Government parties promised to not touch the issue for a few years but is inevitable that it will resurface again eventually.

When you mean "Government parties", do you mean left and right government parties, or just the current government?

The current government. I get what you are referring to but nobody in Latin America use the term in that way and you would struggle to explain a layman the notion of volkspartei

Got it. So only after 2025, and if the new President wants to open the topic again.

[kaoras]

The final result is going to be literally the 2021 Boric margin with the difference that this time Against also won Tarapacá and Biobío.

Map: Against in Red and Favour in Blue



The easiest way to understand it is a traditional left-wing coalition with a sprinkle of "Right for Against" on top. For example, in the north Against ran behind Boric in traditionally left-wing Atacama and Coquimbo but overperformed in the more right-wing Arica and Tarapacá.

However there are some bizarre results here and there like some ancestral leftwing areas lost to "muh trendz" that came back to vote for Against like Antuco, Curanilahue and Arauco in Biobío and the "rural" areas of Arica and Tarapacá.

[Octowakandi]

Do we think this constitution would have won if there wasn’t the fetal personhood section? Did the Against side focus on any particular provision as killer or just saying the whole thing was bad?

[kaoras]

Do we think this constitution would have won if there wasn’t the fetal personhood section? Did the Against side focus on any particular provision as killer or just saying the whole thing was bad?

Against focused on Abortion, the elimination of the territorial tax that funds local goverment and the "constitutionalization" of the private pension and health system, but in general they said that the whole thing was bad.

"Against" basically tried to copy the successful scare campaign done by "Reject" last year(Which convinced everyone that the new constitution was going to steal their house) speaking of all kind of apocalyptic scenarios if the "Kastitution" was approved, but honestly, the left is way worse at spreading fake news than the right.

In Favour tried to make this another referendum on the government but Boric and cia didn't fall in that trap this time and thus they were only partially successful.

The government is still on track for a shellacking at next year's municipal elections but at least now they have some standing to try to push for their agenda. (But is Boric who we are talking about, I doubt he manages to pass anything).

[kaoras]

Also, I'm just glad that those human rights abusers at Punta Peuco won't be freed (the right literally put a section designed to do that). The Against campaign didn't focus on that (correctly IMO) but some of us still have an ounce of moral decency in this godforsaken country

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Absolutely incredible that they went and made errors identical to the ones that got the Left's crack at a new constitution binned as well. I suppose the issue is the shared desire for a total victory that knocks the other side out of the game permanently.

[Battista Minola 1616]

I kind of appreciate Chile's consistent commitment to being 44% far right and 56% not (compare the 2021 presidential election and the 1988 plebiscite).

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

that critical error by the left in the convention for the 1st proposal really killed the entire idea in the end. Now the idea of a new constitution is less popular and they're still stuck with Pinochet's. What a stupid, unneeded shot in the foot.

[Lumine]

It's fairly telling that there was no big reaction last night, nor any celebration. All in all, this whole excercise feels like such a wasted opportunity - on both attempts - to get a decent Constitution fully democratic in its origin.

The Republicanos will have to lick their wounds and mend their schism for a while, the Government gets much needed oxygen and avoids a debacle (though I don't think this will actually strenghten their hand in Congress like others believe), and the public tells A. the political parties as a whole that they could not care any less about the whole thing; and B. that being against the government does not mean they have suddenly gone right-wing, which should have been obvious from the start.

So I suppose life goes on. And onto the municipal and regional elections in 24'.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

What’s the point of a third vote to simply reaffirm what’s already implicit through both the first two votes? That vote is what it creates this never-ending loop where if voters refuse the constitution the person they picked chose, at least one referendum decision will eventually have to be disrespected.

I suppose the excess of democracy is to make sure whatever is written is the most consensual as possible? In that case just come up with a bland generic small text that all sides can be ok with and get this over with.

Surely the definitive lesson from your own Centrão is how little you can trust an elected legislature to do what they promised for the voters. You don't even need to imagine a Centrão dominated constitutional assembly, you've already had one in '88. An excess of democracy is to be expected given past experiences of the opposite.