Chilean Elections and General Discussion. Municipal and Regional elections, October 27th, 2024

[kaoras]

Campaign for Constituent elections 2.0 started yesterday.

Todo por Chile unveiled its campaign slogan "Concertación para el cambio" (Concertación for change). PPD tv ads will also feature the Concertación legacy. Just.... No comments.

Unidad para Chile will start today. Bachelet will campaign for them and endorsed the somewhat infamous PS machine leader Sadi Melo, the only socialist candidate in Santiago. Kast and Parisi will also be on the frontlines campaigning for Republicanos and PDG respectively.

Chile Vamos candidates also started campaigning with focus in the metropolitan region and the south.

[Lumine]

Yesterday the governmentt suffered a heavy legislative defeat, the Chamber of Deputies reject the idea to legislate their Tax Reform with 73 votes in favor of doing so and 71 against (quorum was 78). The governmentt could insist in the Senate but they would need 2/3 and that is almost impossible, so they are assessing what to do (they can't present the same project until next year)

Hacienda minister Mario Marcel lambasted the opposition:

Who will celebrate today? We see that the parties to the right of the political spectrum will celebrate. I am sure that those who evade taxes and those who advise them will celebrate, because they will have at least one more full year to be able to continue using the same tax avoidance mechanisms (...) We will surely also have a celebration of big capital, which will no longer be subject to wealth tax. Surely the lobbyists will also celebrate (...)

The opposition criticized the government for not negotiating with them and said some platitudes about how the reform was bad for the middle class and small business (it isn't, according to OCDE, but they have to say that obviously)

This reform was supposed to finance other governmentt goals such as pension reform and so on. Key to the failure was the absence of humanist and ecologist deputies of the chamber over an incident between Education Minister and an ecologist deputy yesterday.

Ultimately, no one forced the government to try and survive that vote by gambling on the same extremely narrow majority they've relied on thus far, and no one forced them either to postpone the real negotiation until the Senate by assuming the House would be the easy part. I also distinctly recall Boric and company doing the exact same thing for which they are now pretending to be morally outraged.

It also doesn't help that the response has been to either torch those with whom they claim they want to make a deal... or blame Piñera for the whole thing (?) As if he of all people had the power to give marching orders to Congressmen.

On the bright side, it's yet another government misstep that may end up being beneficial to the economic outlook and confidence.

Also, cabinet reshuffle likely to happen tomorrow! Should be interesting to see.

[Edu]

It also doesn't help that the response has been to either torch those with whom they claim they want to make a deal... or blame Piñera for the whole thing (?) As if he of all people had the power to give marching orders to Congressmen

Oh, so you guys have your own version of the "Ah, pero Macri..." argument so popular with kirchnerists over here?

[Lumine]

It also doesn't help that the response has been to either torch those with whom they claim they want to make a deal... or blame Piñera for the whole thing (?) As if he of all people had the power to give marching orders to Congressmen

Oh, so you guys have your own version of the "Ah, pero Macri..." argument so popular with kirchnerists over here?

Oh yeah. Mind you, Piñera does have it coming from time to time, it's just that in this case it's absolutely bonkers.

From what I see in Argentina, the "pero Macri..." seems to be always insane.

[kaoras]

It also doesn't help that the response has been to either torch those with whom they claim they want to make a deal... or blame Piñera for the whole thing (?) As if he of all people had the power to give marching orders to Congressmen

Oh, so you guys have your own version of the "Ah, pero Macri..." argument so popular with kirchnerists over here?

Piñera started it on its first period and every successive government has followed the tradition. The most absurd case, however, belongs to Piñera 2 when he blamed Boric, before even the first round, for the immigration problems.

[kaoras]

Yesterday the governmentt suffered a heavy legislative defeat, the Chamber of Deputies reject the idea to legislate their Tax Reform with 73 votes in favor of doing so and 71 against (quorum was 78). The governmentt could insist in the Senate but they would need 2/3 and that is almost impossible, so they are assessing what to do (they can't present the same project until next year)

Hacienda minister Mario Marcel lambasted the opposition:

Who will celebrate today? We see that the parties to the right of the political spectrum will celebrate. I am sure that those who evade taxes and those who advise them will celebrate, because they will have at least one more full year to be able to continue using the same tax avoidance mechanisms (...) We will surely also have a celebration of big capital, which will no longer be subject to wealth tax. Surely the lobbyists will also celebrate (...)

The opposition criticized the government for not negotiating with them and said some platitudes about how the reform was bad for the middle class and small business (it isn't, according to OCDE, but they have to say that obviously)

This reform was supposed to finance other governmentt goals such as pension reform and so on. Key to the failure was the absence of humanist and ecologist deputies of the chamber over an incident between Education Minister and an ecologist deputy yesterday.

Ultimately, no one forced the government to try and survive that vote by gambling on the same extremely narrow majority they've relied on thus far, and no one forced them either to postpone the real negotiation until the Senate by assuming the House would be the easy part. I also distinctly recall Boric and company doing the exact same thing for which they are now pretending to be morally outraged.

It also doesn't help that the response has been to either torch those with whom they claim they want to make a deal... or blame Piñera for the whole thing (?) As if he of all people had the power to give marching orders to Congressmen.

On the bright side, it's yet another government misstep that may end up being beneficial to the economic outlook and confidence.

Also, cabinet reshuffle likely to happen tomorrow! Should be interesting to see.

Ah yes, I also remember this logic, is the same as with Piñera 2 but inverted. Every good news was their doing, every bad news was someone else fault. Now somehow the government is so powerful that their missteps can alter the international outlook.

And the governmentt is totally right in not putting the other cheek. Let the opposition pay for the governmentt mistakes, if the governmentt spin somehow works is because it was they and their incestuous business cronies that deified Marcel as some sort of responsable angel between the extreme radicalism of the rest of the government (lol), and now they are outraged because he was mean to them.

[Edu]

Oh yeah. Mind you, Piñera does have it coming from time to time, it's just that in this case it's absolutely bonkers.

From what I see in Argentina, the "pero Macri..." seems to be always insane.

Piñera started it on its first period and every successive government has followed the tradition. The most absurd case, however, belongs to Piñera 2 when he blamed Boric, before even the first round, for the immigration problems.

Oh yeah guys, don't get me wrong, every government that we had in the past...century or so lol...has been blaming the last governement of the terrible inheritance. Fernandez blames Macri, Macri blamed Cristina, the kircherists blamed Duhalde, Duhalde blamed de la Rua, de la Rua blamed Menem, Menem blamed Alfonsin and so on and so forth. Some of them have a more credible excuse than others.

The thing is that the Macri thing has gone completely insane. I'm pretty sure some people think that Covid, the energy crisis, the Ukraine war, Messi not going to see the president, etc, etc, etc were all his fault. They are deranged, it would be hilarious if it weren't so sad.

Don't know what will happen in 2023, but don't be surprised if either the kircherists or the far right get elected in 2027. this country sucks, let's get back to talking about Chile.

[kaoras]

The cabinet reshuffle finally happened and as has become tradition, it was delayed for several hours because one of the designations had to be changed at last minute.

At the minister level, one of the most importante changes had to be the Foreign Ministry, that had been marked by a long series of gaffes by both Boric, the former minister Antonia Urrejola and subsecretary Jose Miguel Ahumada, the most notable incident being the leak of an audio criticizing the Argentinian ambassador. The replacement for Urrejola was going to be Marta Maurás (PPD), but her name fell during the morning as accusations of abuse and twits in favor of "Open borders" surfaced. In the end Boric named Alberto Van Klaveren, also PPD.

The other changes were in Public Works, Culture, Sports, and Science, who had ministers with low name recognition and poor management.

On the lower level subsecretaries the changes were heavier, 15 of the 39 subsecretaries, again with enfasis on improve management and to give SD their "fair share". SD went up from 4 to 10 subsecretaries, AD went down from 20 to 17 and Independents from 13 to 12. PS was the main winner, with several independents also being close to the party.

[kaoras]

Panel Ciudadano poll for the 3 most populated regions:

Metropolitana (Santiago) | 5 seats

Chile Seguro 29% (2 seats)
Unidad para Chile 28% (2 seats)
Partido Republicano 20% (1 seat)
Todo por Chile 12%
PDG 11%

On specific candidates, would be elected the Republican Jorge Ossandón (11%, not related with Manuel José Ossandón), Rodrigo Delgado (UDI, 10%) and Carolina Hutt (EVOPOLI 5%) for ChS; Communist Karen Araya (10%) for UpCh with the second seat in dispute between Yerko Ljubetic (CS, 7%) and Sadi Melo (PS, 6%)


Valparaíso | 5 seats

Unidad para Chile 40% (3 seats)
Chile Seguro 26% (1 seat)
Partido Republicano 24% (1 seat)
Todo por Chile 10%

PDG does not have candidates here because of administrative problems. For UpCh would be elected María Soledad Pardo (CS, 11%), Carolina Fernandez (PC, 12%) and Mario Schilling (PS, 10%). For Republicanos Antonio Barchiesi (14%) and for ChS Edmundo Eluchans (UDI, 7%)

Bío Bío|3 seats*

Partido Republicano 31% (1 seat)
Chile Seguro 28% (1 seat)
Unidad para Chile 20% (1 seat)
PDG 12%
Todo por Chile 9%

Would be elected UDI Jorge Ulloa (19%), Republican Carlos Órdenes (11%) and Communist Pablo Cuevas (7%)

These poll results confirm what other polls are saying. Republicanos and Chile Seguro are not far off from each other and Unidad para Chile crushes the PPD-DC-PR lists. Is notable the domination of communist candidates in the left. In any case, most normal people are only just realizing that there is an election soon, so these polls are skewed toward high info voters and candidates with high name recognition.

*_{This region used to have 5 seats, but Ñuble split from it on 2017 and was given 2 seats. So now we have the absurd situation where Los Ríos (Population 409k) has as many seats as Bío Bío (Population 1,6 million). Not that I'm complaining given the poll results lol}

[kaoras]

Data Influyes March Poll (Remember, massive leftwing bias)



Changes from last one

UpCh +1
REP +4
ChS -1
TpCh -1
PDG =

Obviously the most relevant finding is the sorpasso of Republicanos. It could be another quirk of the poll's bias, but nevertheless is consistent with other polls and the incensed rightwing anger.

The left vote remains steady despite Boric's approval crashing (long story, I don't have much time to update this thread, sorry, related to security crisis and a controversial law regarding the use of weapons by the police).

If the other polls are correct, we could easily end up in a situation where the biggest party of the right is Republicanos and the biggest leftist force is the Communist Party.

[Lumine]

Crime and security issues have now firmly seized the political agenda, and with a month to go until the election this is very much not good news for the government. We've had two Carabineros (police officers) killed on the line of duty, which is not something we're really used to. If we add to that a continued spike in violence and crime, you get a perception of crisis that has had the government scrambling to address.

It really feels like we've had a full cultural shift in a matter of months, if not weeks. The Carabineros have their highest approval ratings ever, and much of the stuff that was fashionable to say or do during late 2019 - the so called "Octubrismo" - is now perceived as rather unacceptable, sort of bringing us full circle since this thing started. Piñera is even polling well, with a net positive approval rating (!) and that looked downright impossible not long ago.

Admittedly, it is going to be impossible for any government to address this crisis effectively and in the short term. But what particularly harms and cripples the Boric administration is:

A. That for every new statement in support of the police forces, criticizing illegal immigration or promising a tough on crime approach there's a thousand pre 2022 statements saying exactly the opposite;

B. That much of Apruebo Dignidad is very uncomfortable with these issues, and hurts the government by presenting an image of disunity;

C. That the government, though it tries, finds it hard to be consistent. First they backed a law being debated that significantly expanded the right to self-defence for police officers, then criticized it - after whipping votes for it -, then negotiated a slightly tamer version, then criticized it again, then signed it into law right after another Carabinero was murdered. But not before some left-wing congressmen threatened to go to the Constitutional Court to get it struck down, which... both undermines the message and is darkly ironic after years of the left rallying against the Constitutional Court as part of Pinochet's legacy.

So... yeah. The general perception is that they can't maintain a consistent line while losing control of the situation. All while Boric is being forced to govern, as Kaoras has noted, in a far more moderate fashion than he would want. I dare say Piñera wouldn't have been able to do or pass some of the new stuff on his heyday.

All things considered, it looks like the left is headed for a painful result. And it's not going to be the center-right that benefits, it's most likely going to be the Republicanos and the resurgent Partido de la Gente.

Kaoras is free to correct much of this since it's the perception from where I come from, but it's really been a surprising few weeks.

[Oryxslayer]

It really feels like we've had a full cultural shift in a matter of months, if not weeks. The Carabineros have their highest approval ratings ever, and much of the stuff that was fashionable to say or do during late 2019 - the so called "Octubrismo" - is now perceived as rather unacceptable, sort of bringing us full circle since this thing started. Piñera is even polling well, with a net positive approval rating (!) and that looked downright impossible not long ago.

And so the recent cycle of Chilean politics continues. It was a little more apparent when it was Pinera or Bachelet trading control, but that doesn't mean it hasn't stopped. After two years in government everyone disliked the President, even though they loved said individual when they were out of government and hated the other who was occupying the office.

[Mike88]

Polling, with just 2 weeks from the election, still shows massive undecided voters numbers. I believe the voting is mandatory, right?

Kaoras or Lumine, any updates from the campaign and possible trends? Even though the undecided numbers are massive which pretty much means the race is still wide open.

[kaoras]

Polling, with just 2 weeks from the election, still shows massive undecided voters numbers. I believe the voting is mandatory, right?

Kaoras or Lumine, any updates from the campaign and possible trends? Even though the undecided numbers are massive which pretty much means the race is still wide open.

Well, the fact that we have polls at all for a non-presidential election is a totally new development. So, at least I am willing to take all we have gotten, even with the huge amount undecideds.

As for trends, all the security panic that Lumine talked about didn't actually move the polls for these elections. In that sense, the projections are more or less the same as in the beginning: A wide Right victory, the Left just over the 2/5 veto threshold (20 seats) and PDG gaining a couple of seats in the north.

Personally, my main takeaways from the campaign are:

-Nobody cares about this election. Most of the Right remains very distrustful, the Left is in very cynical state (I would describe it as a colective tantrum tbh, along the lines "Well, they wanted reject, so this country can go to hell for all I care", very common sentiment) and the majority of non-ideological voters simply don't care and also are very wary of the process.  The parties' decision to run lists full of dinosaurs has created anger and exacerbated this sentiment

-For the reason stated above, plus the fact that nobody knows the candidates (outside the hated dinosaurs) I expect an enormous number of spoiled and blank ballots, over 30%.

-I think is very clear that the Republican Party will be by far the biggest party of the country and Chile Vamos/Seguro is starting to feel the heat. Many expect a very close finish between them and Kast's republicans. Meanwhile on the Left, all the polls show that the communist candidates are the strongest performers. If this is because the disciplined communist base is more likely to answer the polls or is a real thing is one of the things I'm looking forward to seeing on election day. It would be truly something if the Republican Party and the Communist party emerged as the biggest forces of the Right and Left respectively.

-I'm more pessimist on the Left prospects than the conventional wisdom, I know a lot of people that will spoil their ballots because they don't care about this new process (that they see dominated by the right anyway). Their TV Ads are also atrocious, the worst I've seen in my entire life. I'm expecting around 18 seats for the two government lists. As for the competence between the lists, Todo por Chile is going to get crushed, I expect 0-2 seats for them. Even their spin is that they are going to open champagne if they get 3 seats. NOBODY OUTSIDE THE RIGHTIST ELITES WANTS TO BRING BACK THE CONCERTACIÓN, MUCH LESS VOTE FOR CONCERTACION DINOSAURS.

-PDG is going to do well. In the north we should expect results closer to the first round of the presidential elections than to the typical congressional elections there. But many of the spoiled ballots are going to be people that could have voted for them, that could limit their potential (on top of their insistence of keeping the impopular Parisi around).

[kaoras]

Last polls I could find before the polling ban, from Signos (Overestimated Approve in the last plebiscite)

Metropolitan Region

Unidad para Chile 20,7% (2 seats, PC and RD, the latter in dispute with PS)
Chile Seguro 18,5% (2 seats, EVOPOLI and UDI)
Partido Republicano 15,9% (1 seat)
Todo por Chile 9,2%
PDG 8,7%

Undediced/Nulls/Blanks: 27%

Both PDG and Todo por Chile are close to taking ChS second seat.

Valparaíso Region (No PDG list)

Unidad para Chile 21,6% (2 seats, PS and PC)
Chile Seguro 19,5% (1 seat, UDI)
Partido Republicano 13,9% (1 seat)
Todo por Chile 9,8% (1 seat, PPD)

Undecided/Null Blank 35,2%

Todo por Chile is close to losing its seat to Chile Seguro, has been trending downwards over the campaign.

Metropolitan Region - Research Chile (Tends to overestimate center-right)

Chile Seguro 29%
Unidad para Chile 21%
Partido Republicano 19%
Todo por Chile 9%
Partido de la Gente 6%

Evolution over the campaign:

[kaoras]

Some leaked polls, both for the Metropolitan Region

UDD:

Chile Seguro 28% (2)
Unidad Para Chile 23% (1)
Partido Republicano 22% (1)
PDG 15% (1)
Todo por Chile 12%

God knows how many undecideds, their polls usually have around 50% of undecided which could explain the whackiness of the results.

Studio Publico (Very right-wing pollster, I think it is the only pollster that overestimated Reject)

Unidad para Chile 26,3% (2)
Partido Republicano 20,2% (2)
Chile Seguro 18,8% (1)
Todo por Chile 5,8%
PDG 5,7%

Nulls/Blank 17,4%
Not going to vote 5,8%

Notably, they asked directly about lists, unlike most other pollsters (including UDD) that ask for candidates and then add up the % for each list.

I will also start working on a miniguide for next Sunday! As with most elections I'm probably going to be a pollwatcher so I won't be able to update or comment much on election night, so hopefully it will be a helpful tool for all the people who read this thread to interpret the results.

[kaoras]

A guide to the Chilean constituent elections 2.0

What is the context?

After the proposal for a new constitution was rejected 38-62 in 2022, most political parties (with the exception of PDG and Kast's Republicans) agreed to continue with a new process.
Emboldened by the wide victory of reject, the Right set up the terms of the new process after months of political gridlock.

The "Accord for Chile" established several Constitutional bases that the new "Constitutional Council" will have to respect. These bases say that Chile will be a "Estado social y democrático de derecho", but keep several key elements of the current Pinochet era Constitution, such as an Unitary State and Social Rights provided by private institutions.

The Accord also set up 2 bodies named by Congress, an "Expert Committee" that must come out with a constitutional project that will serve as the foundation for the work of the Council and an "Admissibility Committee" that will review that each proposal aligns with the Constitutional Bases.

Both the Expert and Admissibility Committees are already functioning and are split 50/50 between Left and Right/PDG. They also have significant veto power over what the Council will do.  

Polls shows that this accord was unpopular and there is widespread distrust towards this process.

What are we voting for?

The elected part of the new process, the Constitutional Council. It will have 50 members, elected by the electoral system of the Senate (Open List PR, each region is a district that elects between 2 and 5 councilmen).

There is also the possibility for indigenous seats, The indigenous peoples will choose a seat as long as their vote achieves at least 1.5 percent of the valid votes nationwide. If the total number of votes for indigenous representatives, which are only two for this election, reaches 1.5% between them, the one with the most votes will join the Constitutional Council. If the vote between the two reaches 3.5%, both will be elected. Their election will be as supernumerary members, that is, they will join the 50 members of the Constitutional Council. If only one is elected, there will be 51 members, while if both are elected, there will be 52

This Constitutional Council will have to take decisions by a 3/5 quorum, or 30 votes if there are 50 seats. 21 seats is the threshold for veto power.

Voting in Chile is again compulsory for all elections.

Which lists and parties are competing?

There will be only 5 lists, much less than usual because the parties that got dissolved for not reaching the minimum number of votes or deputies elected in the last parliamentary elections didn't have time to re-register.

Those list are (from left to right)

• Unidad para Chile (UpCh): Alliance between the Communist Party (PC), Frente Amplio parties (FA), the Socialist Party (PS) and the Liberal Party (PL). The list most closely aligned with the government, these are the parties that answered Boric's call for an unity leftist list. Their campaign consists of saying "Social Rights" until you are deaf, although they have very awkwardly tried to tackle security concerns but in general their campaign has been very tone deaf with what their electorate (still angry over Approve defeat) wants. Among individual parties, PL is the only one with good ads that attack Kast and Parisi; Convergencia Social (part of FA) touts, smartly on my opinion, that they are the party of the president; PS and PC are old school feel good social rights nonsense, the rest of FA is the same but hippie.
• Todo por Chile (TxCh): Alliance of PPD, (Party for Democracy, generic centre left and once upon a time a big tent for progressives) PR (Radical Party, similar to French PRG in many ways) and what is left of the DC (Christian Democracy, which after a lot of splits, the empty shell is now controlled by their left faction). Basically all the parties of the old Concertación save for PS. This list is the big bet of PPD president (and candidate for Santiago) Natalia Piergentili, that insisted that the ex-Concertación had to run a separate list from the "far left" to appeal to the hunger for moderation and experience within the electorate (to which PS said "no thanks). Their campaign is full of Concertación nostalgia: their tv ads show footage from the height of the Concertación in the nineties, their slogan is Concertación for change, their candidate's lists are full of former Concertación ministers and congressmen from the 90's. This approach has been remarkably unsuccessful with awful results in almost all published opinion polls.
• Partido de la Gente (PDG): After being the big surprise of the last elections (well, to everyone who didn't follow the thread here) they have been rocked by infighting and have lost half of their congressmen. Parisi came back temporally from the US after reaching a deal in his child support lawsuit to oversee the candidate selection and the start of the campaign. They have the best TV ads, insist on being neither left nor right and campaign on a very big tent populism, saying stuff like pushing for a circular ecologic economy at the same time they bash ilegal immigration. Due to administrative problems, they don't have candidates in Valparaiso region.
• Chile Seguro (ChS): Chile Vamos with another name, consist of Evolución Política (EVOPOLI), Renovación Nacional (RN) and Union Demócrata Independiente (UDI). The traditional right, running on security concerns (hence the name) opposition to the government and being the serious and sensible choice to not repeat the experience of the last process. Lately they have started feeling the heat of the Republican surge.
• Partido Republicano (REP): The far right, the party of Jose Antonio Kast who advanced to the second round in the last presidential election. They have been the biggest beneficiaries of the government's unpopularity and emphasize that they are against a new constitution, but that people should still vote for them to "re-cover" the country from the leftist hordes. They also usually criticize Chile Vamos for not being a "real opposition", saying that they signed an accord with the Communist Party for this new process. Growing consensus is that they will emerge as the largest individual party of the country.

[kaoras]

What do the polls say?

Polls are all over the place. The best place to look them is the Spanish wiki and this thread since I’ve gotten my hands on a lot of regional polls that aren’t on the wiki.

The very few polls done at the national level have Unidad para Chile ahead, followed by Chile Seguro and Republicanos very close to each other, with PDG and Todos por Chile far behind.

Regionally, polls are all over the place, especially in the Metropolitan Region (5 seats) where either ChS or UpCh leads depending on the pollster. All polls agree that TxCh is out of the race and most see a 3-2 split in favor of the right (2 ChS, 1 REP against 2 UpCh), though UDD found a 4-1 with PDG gaining a seat from UpCh

In Valparaíso Region (5 seats), there is no PDG list. Polls show UpCh miles ahead of ChS and REP which are even. This region is the best chance for a favorable split for the left, with polls showing a possibility of either a third seat for UpCh or TxCh getting a seat, but the most likely result is still a 2 left, 3 right split.

Leaked UDD polls also show that the Left could get totally shut out of Biobío (3 seats) and Araucanía (5 seats). Highly unlikely but not unimaginable.

What are the projections?

The most well-known electoral predictor in the country, former deputy Pepe Auth (who has a terrible track record) predicts ChS 17-19, UpCh 14-15, REP 10-11, PDG 3-5 and TxCh 4-6, which is extremely optimistic on TxCh.

• Unidad para Chile expects 18 seats and being the most voted list. Among individual parties, PC expects 2-4 seats (Coquimbo, Santiago, Valparaíso and Biobío); PS 3-5; CS 2-3; RD 1, FRVS 1.
• Chile Seguro expects 15-18 seats and beating the republican challenge, with some hoping for up to 21 seats. UDI expects 7-8, EVOPOLI 1-2 and RN doesn’t want to project seats.
• Partido Republicano has a huge range, between 5-15. They say that their strongest candidates are in Santiago, Valparaíso, O’Higgins, Araucanía and Los Lagos
• PDG expects between 3 and 5 seats, though Parisi has said 4-8. They have high hopes in Arica, Coquimbo and Araucanía.
• Todo por Chile is doing is best to lower the expectations, saying 5 would be a good result. PPD is on record of saying that they will open “champagne” with 3 seats and even 1 would be a higher share of the council than in the last convention. DC and PR are also hoping for at least 1.

Things to look for:

• How low will the Left fall?: Currently the lowest result on record for the combined left is 49% in the 2009 parliamentary elections. There's widespread consensus that because of the general malaise/crisis feeling and the government unpopularity they will fall well below that. As I noted, most projections have them just about Approve numbers (38%-40%) and I agree that there is little reason for them to go beyond that. Besides, unlike your typical parliamentary or local elections, there isn't any left-wing alternative for protest votes, the two list are tied to the government. On top of that, the parties competing now already start from a baseline of either 38% at the 2021 parliamentary elections or 33% in the 2020 constituent elections. The case for a result even lower than Approve is fairly straightforward: many leftwing voters hate this new process and will spoil their ballots, the campaign of both lists has been terrible, PDG is going to wreak havoc again on their northern base and they are seen as weak on the security issues that have dominated the campaign. So, I say that it is likely that they end up both below 38% and below 21 seats, the threshold for having veto power in the Council. Not that it matters *that* much because they still have half of the Expert committee and veto there.
• Will Republicans "surpass" Chile Vamos?: Another big incognite, the consensus is that they will get close, but that Chile Vamos/Seguro will remain as the main force of the right. If the Republicans emerge as the most voted list of the right, it will send shockwaves to the political system and could make Chile Vamos to pivot to the scorched earth-style opposition of the Republicans to protect its right flank.
• Is the Communist surge real?: All public polls that ask for individual candidates have the Communists dominating the leftist vote. They could be benefiting from the leftist anger or be a mirage caused by their disciplined base being more likely to answer the polls (In Chile opinion polls only reach the ultra-politically engaged, that's why they are often inaccurate) or both. The PC itself expects between 2-4 seats but people that have seen private regional polling say that they could emerge as the biggest party of the left, both in votes and seats (with 4-5), having chances in up to 7 seats (Tarapacá, Atacama, Coquimbo, Metropolitana, Valparaíso, Biobío and Araucanía). If the Communist surge materializes in election day it would leave Boric government in a very difficult position, being in a clear minority but with a base of support even more radicalized.
• Independents: There's 3 independent candidates. In Aysén and Araucanía they are supported by the far right Conservative Christian Party, while the one in Magallanes is close to the local Bianchi clan (explanation on the next point). The independent craze of 2021 seems to have died down after the failure of the Convention, but who really knows if they will be able to gain traction.
• Indigenous seats: According to the electoral roll delivered by the Electoral Service (Servel) for the May 7 elections, there are 1.318.212 people who are registered with the National Corporation for Indigenous Development (Conadi) and who can vote for an indigenous candidate. However, there are only 2 candidates this time, both Mapuche. Pundits think that is highly unlikely that they will reach the required 1,5% quota, but the high number of spoiled ballots could help them.
• Number of spoiled ballots: As I said in other posts, the attitude of most people towards this process ranges from distrust and indifference to anger. With compulsory voting, many seem determined to spoil their ballots, and I've noticed that this isn't limited to the left. Parliamentary elections typically have 10% of spoiled ballots, and the record is 17% in 1997, when they also served as a catalyst for dissatisfied voters. I'm betting much higher than that, over 30%, although most analysts expect abstention instead of spoiled ballots. Their logic is that those unhappy with the process just won't vote given that the fines for not voting are moving at a snail pace in the local courts. I disagree, as with the masks during Covid, people will follow the rules even if people are unhappy with the rules and the possible punishments are not really applied.
• Magallanes results: Magallanes Region in the far-south doesn't do Daylight saving time so the first results, as with the last plebiscite, will come from it. Magallanes is very outsider friendly and there is an independent candidate there, Claudio Barrientos, close to the Bianchi clan. The Bianchi clan is an electoral powerhouse in Magallanes that aligns with the left on the national level and draws most of their votes from it. Is hard to know how the race is shaping up down there without firsthand knowledge and without polls, but we shouldn't be surprised if there is a result like in the senatorial election of 2021, when Karim Bianchi, running as an independent, got elected alongside a right-wing candidate. Against Barrientos chances is the fact that senator Karim Bianchi called to vote null.
• Small Regions: In small regions with 2 seats, especially in the North, a bad split on the left could end with them shut out of seats. In Arica the Todo x Chile list is strong and could allow PDG to win a seat along with the right. Same in other areas like Ñuble.

When we will have the results?

Polls close at 6pm local time.  Early results could start appearing on TV from isolated polling stations in Magallanes from 5:30 pm onwards.
We should have a relatively clear picture at 8-9pm.

[kaoras]

New leaked polls:

A massive 19k nationwide poll, at least 800 people per region, donde by a US polling company, Partner 305.

The aggregated nationwide total:

Partido Republicano: 30,71% (19 seats)
Unidad para Chile: 29,03% (17 seats)
Chile Seguro: 25,01% (14 seats)
Todo por Chile: 8,48% (0)
PDG: 6,56% (0)
Independents: 0,21%

The worst thing about this is that is perfectly plausible, though some regional results seem wacky.


Meanwhile, new UDD for Metropolitan, Valparaíso and Biobío.

Metropolitan:
REP 19% (1-2)
UPCh 18% (1-2)
ChS 18% (1-2)
TxCh 8%
PDG 7%

Valparaíso

UpCh 25% (2)
REP 21% (2)
ChS 14% (1)
TxCh 8%

Biobío

REP 26% (1)
ChS 17% (1)
PDG 13% (0-1)
UpCh 11% (0-1)
TxCh 5%


There are some last minutes scandals, one involves a PDG candidate in Arica, drug traffic and SERVEL incompetence. I will cover it later because apparently another scandal about a Republican candidate will come out later this evening.

[kaoras]

Well, the Republican thing ended up being a nothingburger, so onto PDG, which is dominating the coverage.

It became known that one of their candidates in Arica, Karla Añez, "an expert in security" which according to polls was their strongest candidate there, spent 5 years in prison for drug traffic, specifically over 500g of cocaine.
Now, in Chile you lose your political rights if you are condemned to over 3 years, and her sentence specifically said that she is "disqualified for life from holding public office". She renounced her candidacy but will remain on the ballot.

SERVEL of course never caught this, and today SERVEL president say that "according to article 17 of the Constitution, once her sentence was served, she recovered her right to citizenship and we were notified of that sentence and the recovery of her citizenship in 2017, on May 31, by the Civil Registry" and that if she wins, she will be seated. Of course, what the article 17 of the constitution actually says is that if you are condemned to "pena aflictiva" or for drug trafficking (more than 3 years) you need to petition the Senate to recover your political rights, it isn't automatic.

On top of the never-ending problems with the Geo localization (SERVEL literally said that it doesn't matter that people are sent to rural areas in the other tip of the comuna to vote because it is "technically right since is the same electoral circumscription"), SERVEL truly is covering itself in glory lately.

[Mike88]

That Partner 305 poll seems sketchy. Never heard of that polling company. But, even looking at that poll, the rightwing would almost win a 2/3 majority... That would be quite a turnaround.

[kaoras]

That Partner 305 poll seems sketchy. Never heard of that polling company. But, even looking at that poll, the rightwing would almost win a 2/3 majority... That would be quite a turnaround.

The government and the left are signaling to the press that "defeat is inevitable" and that the opposition will likely get over 3/5, probably based on those leaked polls. The political effect of the Left not having veto power in the council itself will remain the same, however at least the government will see it coming, unlike the plebiscite when they were delusional until the end. Apparently Apruebo Dignidad is preparing for a "Nigh of the long knives". AD wants to punish PPD for not running a joint list and recover influence within the government.

On the grassroot level, there is some panic with calls to not spoil the ballots and to vote for the Unidad para Chile list, but I think is too little too late. Although the PDG scandal could be a very good thing for the left in the north because it reduces the risk that they are shut out of seats.

[Mike88]

That Partner 305 poll seems sketchy. Never heard of that polling company. But, even looking at that poll, the rightwing would almost win a 2/3 majority... That would be quite a turnaround.

The government and the left are signaling to the press that "defeat is inevitable" and that the opposition will likely get over 3/5, probably based on those leaked polls. The political effect of the Left not having veto power in the council itself will remain the same, however at least the government will see it coming, unlike the plebiscite when they were delusional until the end. Apparently Apruebo Dignidad is preparing for a "Nigh of the long knives". AD wants to punish PPD for not running a joint list and recover influence within the government.

On the grassroot level, there is some panic with calls to not spoil the ballots and to vote for the Unidad para Chile list, but I think is too little too late. Although the PDG scandal could be a very good thing for the left in the north because it reduces the risk that they are shut out of seats.

That means, then, that a possible new Constitution draft will probably be a copypaste of the current one. Or even worse, due to the increase of the Republican Party. However, not sure if the Republicans and Chile Seguro will be able to agree on anything.

[kaoras]

The day of the fascist tsunami is here, sadly. Polls are now open nationwide and will close at 6pm local time (one hour early in Magallanes)

Personally, in the end I decided to vote in the indigenous roll to help them get a seat.

[kaoras]

And for what is worth, my final prediction is

UpCh 18
REP 15
ChS 15
PDG 2
TxCh 0

Most of the predictions I've seen are in the same range:

UpCh 16-17
ChS 16-17
REP 14
TxCh 2
PDG 1-2

As I mentioned, the consensus in the last days has shifted towards the left being clearly under 2/5 and a huge Republican surge, with most of the press wondering about the implications of the latter.